Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Duckworth low on cash, but Dems starting negative ads *** Updated x1 ***
Next Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Schock-Spears; Smith-Dagit; Link-Shields; Glengariff poll results; Axley-Kotowski; IFT radio ads; Gordon-Briscoe; Roth-Noland; Sullivan-Howland; Hospitals; Target feed (Use all caps in password) *** Updated x1 ***
Posted in:
Let’s assume (probably correctly) that Judy Baar Topinka doesn’t have the money to air both positive and negative ads at the same time.
Faced with this cash dilemma, if you were her would you continue airing negative ads or switch to purely positives? Explain your reasoning.
Bonus question: Will hiring Lou Piniella make any difference at all for the Cubs or should the owners resign?
By the way, the Glengariff Group also polled Illinoisans on the Cubs”
The Chicago Cubs• Voters were asked if they believe the Chicago Cubs would make the World Series in the next ten years. 34% of voters believe the Cubs will be in the World Series in the next ten years. 40% said they would not. 26% didn’t know.
• Chicagoans were most optimistic with 40% believing the Cubs would reach the World Series.
*** UPDATE *** Gov. Blagojevich’s campaign has a new super-positive ad. “According to my opponent,” the guv says up front, “I’m the worst person on earth and the world is coming to an end. Come one. Let’s get real.”
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:39 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Duckworth low on cash, but Dems starting negative ads *** Updated x1 ***
Next Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Schock-Spears; Smith-Dagit; Link-Shields; Glengariff poll results; Axley-Kotowski; IFT radio ads; Gordon-Briscoe; Roth-Noland; Sullivan-Howland; Hospitals; Target feed (Use all caps in password) *** Updated x1 ***
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
GO positive and let the media cover the negative. Judy, although I love seeing Blago unable to answer a simple question, I need to know how you will make things better in IL?
Has Pinella ever won the World Series? Dusty Baker 2.0
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:45 am
Judy needs to go positive. There is a serious negative view of her. This is especially true in the NW Burbs. Let the media paint Rod as the bad guy. She can go statesman above the fray.
Comment by Positive Baby Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:45 am
This is an easy one. She hs to go positive to give the undecideds a reason to vote FOR her rather than AGAINST Blago. With Blago polling somewhere in the high 30s to low 40s, she doesn’t need to drive him down further, but rather needs to push her own numbers up.
Plus, the media will be doing plenty of negative stories on the governor.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:46 am
Oh, Forgot. Does it really matter with the cubs, They are stinky. I am a lifelong Cubs fan and am coming to the realization I probably always will be. You see we are stuck in the belief that they will win it all some day. When that day comes we can all say we were with then from the beginning. Unlike all those SOX wannabees. How could the sox barely fill a stadium, have a shortlived winning record, and all of the sudden everyone has been a fan since birth. A real fan endures the misery that is a CUBS fan!
Comment by Positive Baby Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:52 am
Neither.
The race has been lost.
Donate the money to Republicans who still have a chance, like Kirk and Shimkus who will need it to defend their seats.
Donate it to a few state rep. races so that the GOP is not a complete doormat next year.
It is time to be a good Republican and look to the party rather than to herself.
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:53 am
First of all Topinka has not given a clear picture to how she would run Illinois Government. All I have seen is bashing the Governor. I will say that there are not many good choices for Governor, but I would say Rod has it won at this point. If I was her I would go positive down the stretch. She has been running the same ad’s in Southern Illinois about the $1,500 check, that is old news. She is dreaming about being Governor, not a chance!
Comment by She's Dreaming Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:00 am
What is there that is positive?
Her pro big business anti-labor voting record in the legislature? Her support of assault weapons?
Accepting campaign contributions from banks that do business with the state?
Her wishy washy stand on choice?
The ongoing FBI investigation that she used state employees for political purposes?
Her close ties to GRyan and Bush?
The great moral leadership of Hastert and Shimkus, two leaders of her party?
Advocating a massive expansion of gambling?
Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:10 am
Shimkus will be just fine, nice try Skeeter.
What would Skeeter know about being a good republican anyway?
Comment by Sweet Lou Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:11 am
She has to go positive…and one would think that her amazing campaign team would have learned that in Campaign Politics 101.
The facts:
-Blago has incredibly high negatives in polling already
-Even witht the high negatives, Blago is leading in head to head polls
-Blago has increased JBT’s negatives by spending millions in negative ads
-Increasing Blago’s negatives will not change the minds of voters…they still seem to like him even with his ridiculous negatives
All of the facts considered, the only option is to go positive and give the people SOMETHING to grab hold of and support. The entire JBT campaign reminds me of John Kerry’s campaign and his inability to grab moderates due to his lack of a plan/attack only campaign.
As for the Cubs…Bringing in Lou just means that the losses will be more entertaining when he kicks the dirt and throws the bases.
Comment by the wonderboy Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:21 am
There was nothing wrong with Dusty. It only gave Hendry and excuse for the sorry butt team he signed. Piniella will be fine, but it’s a talent on the field problem first.
Oh, and stay negative and hope that something else blows up in the Governors face–oh wait–everytime it happens she falls in the polls.
Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:21 am
JBT: Go positive. As previous commenters have said, let the free media do the negative.
Sit on the edge of the desk, look into the camera, connect on a personal level and tell people we’re going to bring Illinois back again.
I think Flider’s quote could be a great pivot in this kind of an ad. “Even Democrats are saying Illinois is a national laughingstock, and we’ve had enough. For 20 years I’ve been fighting to make Illinois the great state it can be, and I’m ready for the challenge of cleaning up the Ryan/Blagojevich mess. It’s a mess both parties made, so we’ve all got to come together and fix it. Whether we’re Republicans, Democrats or independents, we’re all Illinoisans first. Let’s work together to clean up state government, get a handle on the budget, stop electric rate hikes and improve our schools. I’ll lead the way, but I need your vote.”
How about a similar positive ad with Jim Edgar, sitting around with his grandkids. “As governor, I was proud to work with you to make Illinois great. But the Ryan/Blagojevich scandals have hurt and embarassed all of us. We’ve had enough - and only one candidate can bring us together to clean up the mess.” Then the positive message about JBT.
Or heck, with the Bears on such a roll, can’t somebody coax Mike Ditka out of his cave? You could do a fantastic, distinctive ad with Da Coach: “When I look at Judy Baar Topinka, I see a lot of me. Tough. Experienced. A fighter. Always says what she thinks. That’s the attitude you need to win on the field, and it’s what we need to clean up the mess in state government. We’ve had enough of the scandals. Let’s all huddle up and vote for Judy Baar Topinka for governor.”
And on the Cubs: It’s a weak division. I like the Piniella hire and think this team could compete in a hurry.
Comment by Two Cents Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:25 am
She should go positive. If she can’t think of anything good to say in her positive ads, she should just lie. That is what Blago does.
The fact that he is still ahead shows me that even if he was caught with child pornography in his office, his physcho followers would still vote for him. Besides she doesn’t need to go negative. He is a walking negative ad and the coverage from the free media from now until election day will continue to have the phrases “$1500 check” “close personal adviser indicted” “pay to play on steroids”, and whatever new phrases come out with the Levine indictment. Judy should go positive and go to church….a lot!
As far as Pinella goes, I think it is a great choice because he won’t sugarcoat everything like Dusty did. He is a much better bench manageer, and he will definitely kick a little a$$. Will it bring the Cubs a World Series win, probably not, but heres to hope.
By the way to answer an earlier question, Pinella won the World Series Reds in 1990.
Comment by Jaded Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:29 am
Go positive.
Just film Judy over at the locked gates of the mansion saying “I would appreciate your vote.” Well, be a little stronger than that - but be positive.
Comment by Shelbyville Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:31 am
Wumpus has it figured out. Go positive with her message for improving the lousy Illinois fiscal mess, because once the Levine fun begins, the media will be all over it.
Plus, word is that JBT is going to pick up some newspaper endorsements, at least according to the most recent campaign manager’s update that ended up in my inbox.
Comment by Angie Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:32 am
Running negative ads is not going to help JBT. You are after the “undecided†and need to give them a reason to vote for you, not a reason to not vote for Blogo. The general consensus is that both parties are inherently corrupt and will do little to change “business as usualâ€, so…. it is up to JBT to run some strong positive ads and let the press work the negatives. The question in the back of voters minds is can she and her money backers be trusted…? JBT’s only hope would be an ad throwing herself at the mercy of the people of Illinois and solemnly and convincingly promise to clean up State Government,… but we have heard that much, much too often. If there ever was a time for a third party candidate, this would be it. Just a few well placed ads a week before election day could change politics in Illinois, hopefully for the better.
Comment by Justice Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:35 am
The only shot she has at coming close to winning, or even winning, is to stay negative. This isnt an election about her it is about Blagojevich. He has been able to make it about her and she does not have the time or money to raise her positives anywhere close to where they need to be.
Comment by HANKSTER Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:37 am
Oh, and no on the Cubs. Face it, they are the lovable losers for a lonnnnng time to come.
Comment by Angie Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:38 am
How in heck did she let herself be maneuvered
into a rep as an Allkids critic. What she should be saying is, we are going to stop the corruption toll on state government monies (the tax all the corrupt contractors pass on to us, the taxpayers, via higher fees) and ensure that all Illinoisians have access to resasonably priced health insurance. In other words, she should be saying I can do a better job with the people’s money and help more people with it.
Does she really believe there are a bunch of Illinoisians out there who want to pull back on health insurance for kids. Even if they don’t need it. Even if their families make $100,000.
Nobody in Illinois goes to bed at night worrying about the state budget. Nobody cares if the state employee pension fund is short. Nobody cares if there is a deficit.
Voters need to hear how she could do a better job with the $50 billion state money pile and get more of it back to the voters in tangible ways. Instead, she says she wants to hire more state employees into our grossly overstaffed state government….for life, no less.
People don’t want an accountant for governor.
They want someone who can work magic with the money, not just count it. Since Blago can apparently barely count, this was JBT’s issue to lose.
What IS she thinking
Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:46 am
As a lifelong suffering Cubs fan, I am resigned to the fact that the Cubs will never win it all as long as the Trib owns the team. This year was a pathetic joke and I’m glad MacPhail and Baker are gone. But it’s not enough.
As to JBT, she and her team are running the single worst serious Republican campaign that I can remember. She doesn’t have a message and can’t find one to save her life. Without a consistent postive message and the discipline to stay on it, she doesn’t have a prayer no matter how much help she gets from Patrick Fitzgerald.
Comment by ChicagoCynic Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:48 am
Positive because Blago is creating plenty of negitive by hisself.Plus there is a rumor that like all rich middle east business people some of his money has ended up with some of the terror groups.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:48 am
I don’t think Topinka is capable of being positive. I think nastiness and negativity are all that’s in her.
Comment by Real Clear Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:49 am
oh and who cares about the Cubs…GO SOX!
Comment by HANKSTER Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:58 am
The problem with staying negative is that all the votes that don’t go to Blago don’t necessarily go to Judy. Remember, this is a three candidate race. The other problem is that polls of voters show incredibly high levels of belief in the fact that both parties are hideously corrupt. In such an environment (and I’m not sure any of the conventional political wisdom takes into account such an environment), it could be that corruption and allegations thereof simply become white noise.
Comment by cermak_rd Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 10:16 am
GO NEGATIVE.
Unless post-Rezko polling data has here within 6 or 7 points - she simply can’t move the needle fast enough with a positive campaign. With more voters watching the Simpsons instead of the 10 o’clock news - you can’t rely on free media to get the message out.
Comment by Chicagograssroots Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 10:25 am
Sweet Lou:
1. A vote for Shimkus is a clear and unequivocal statement that the voters do not care about kids, and I don’t think that his district holds that view. If anyone other than Foley himself is guilty in the Foley matter, is it Shimkus. He was supposed to be there to protect the kids and he failed.
2. With regard to my knowledge of good Republicans: Looks like I know much more about that than most Illinois Republicans. Illinois is now probably the bluest of the blue states. If I was an Illinois Republican, I would take advice wherever I could find it.
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 10:25 am
Go for the jugular, i.e. Negative. The republicans need to take a leason from the Chicago Bears. Never give up, Never say die.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 10:28 am
Go positive - but, continue to hammer home the Rezko/Blago link while you’re doing it.
Comment by Jechislo Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 11:00 am
Great new positive ad from Blagojevich. Simple, clean, no cut aways, great script - just an effective talk-to-the camera piece.
Saw it on TV last night during the Bears game with a bunch of guys, none of whom follow politics, and they liked it. Thought it was upbeat and straight-forward.
As for the Cubs, it’s kind of tough to get excited about the Cubs 98th rebuilding year. Plus, Chicago sports fans used up all their prayers and rally caps to get last night’s Bears win against the Cardinals.
I’m waiting for a guy with horns and a red cape to appear out of a cloud of smoke, walk over to Lovie Smith and say, “Okay, a deal is a deal. Now its your turn.”
Comment by Scott Fawell's Cellmate Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 11:29 am
At least Rod tells the truth about two things. He is not the worst person on earth (just the worst Governor) and the world is not coming to an end (I am pretty sure that event is scheduled to happen after the Cubs win the World Series, so we don’t have much to worry about).
Otherwise just more lies………………
Comment by Jaded Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 11:32 am
I shudder when I here him say the world is not coming to an end. North Korea has the nuke, you know.
Comment by Here it is Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 11:36 am
She should go positive, and maybe Birkett could do the negative ads for her. Kind of a good cop/bad cop deal. How about this:
“Hello, my name is Joe Birkett and I am running for Lt. Governor… (dramatic pause.)
No, that’s all I had to say. I was just afraid that you might have been confused by our opponents and thought a vote for Judy and me would actually be a vote for me for Governor.â€
Comment by Even Lou can't save the Cubs Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 11:38 am
Let’s look at recent history.
In 94, the GOP offered a contract w/america and won.
In 96, they offered “We hate Clinton” and lost.
In 2002/2004, the dems offered “we hat Bush” and lost while Bush offered a safer America, beeter economy, etc and won.
Judy, go positive
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 11:39 am
I think Blagojevich and Bill Clinton are closet twins. And I think history will remember both of them exactly the same way. This guy verifies my reasons why I will never vote for a slick talking Democrat.
Comment by Jechislo Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 11:57 am
Go positive,I have always voted Dem.but not this election.I have met her at veterans conventions many times and I like her attitude and strength.She won’t be able to correct every thing that has been done but she sure won’t make it worse and I know she will help veterans.No governor has ever created 200 empty beds in our veterqns nursing homes.This has been a terrible four years for veterans.
Comment by reflector Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 12:07 pm
If I’m Judy I start running positive ad’s to brand the campaign - which is something that she has entirely failed to do.
With even mild branding on what she stands for (rather then, what she doesn’t stand for) she could quickly change the summary of the election.
Funny: This question involves branding too. The Cubs have attempted to buy faces for their team, be it a steroid head cartoon character named Slammin’ Sammy, a couple of glass armed pitchers, or a tooth pick chewing/wrist band wearing coach.
Whether you love/hate Dusty, it doesn’t matter. The question is this: Is the current Cubs roster equipped enough to win a World Series this year or Next Year?
If you truly believe that the Roster of Rejects is capable of winning *very soon*, or that Pinella can make the meaningful changes to generate a world series, this is a good decision. If you think that this team needs to rebuild more then say…..40% of the team, then 3 million a year for a rebuilding manager is a bit much.
What do I think? I think it’s a weak division in the weak NL. I think they need 2 more pitchers that aren’t named Wood or Prior and I think they need a third baseman who’s not A-Rod (as the rumors of his Cubdom persist) and they may have a capable team. A world series team would require a drastic restructuring of the Roster around franchise players that the Cubs don’t have and will need to acquire.
If the Cubs want to win, it’s time to have a fire sale - and I don’t mean just players. Sell the whole damned team to the highest bidder.
Comment by dan l Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 12:14 pm
Go negative. At this stage, it is the only thing that will work. Together with the headlines, she needs to keep this election about the corrupt Blagojevich administration.
“A vote for Shimkus is a clear and unequivocal statement that the voters do not care about kids.” Take a look at that POS statement. Whoever wrote that doesn’t understand what clear or unequivocal means, and doesn’t understand much of anything.
I know I can be pretty partisan, but statements like that are freakin’ nuttier than a Payday. Take a pill!
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 12:18 pm
Positive. We NEED to know what Judy is going to do, not what we already know Rod has done to us. Right now I don’t want to vote for either because I know what he has promised. She hasn’t really said a concrete thing to persuade me to throw my vote away (so to speak) on Whitney.
Comment by Jules Verne Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 12:37 pm
Vanilla,
You act like it is the fault of Democrats that Shimkus received information and failed to do a single thing.
You point out the real tragedy of the Republican Party now. All it concerns itself with is trying to win elections. It cares about preserving itself and not about protecting Americans.
Shimkus screwed up. If he had a bit of dignity, he would have resigned long ago.
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 12:44 pm
“I’m the worst person on earth and the world is coming to an end. Come one. Let’s get real.â€
Runner Up?
Comment by Pat Hickey Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 12:48 pm
Judy should do an instructional How to Dance the Polka tape with special guest partner Bill Cellini.
Comment by Charles Martel Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 12:59 pm
A new perspective: Rod ran so many negative commercials (what, 20 to her 1 aired?) that when she runs a neg ad, folks are just tired of it, and lump her in with the nastiness that he’s been pitching for months now. She gets tarred for HIS over kill - it all runs together and they perceive her as mean. So, yes, show why she wants to be governor, what clean government and investment in the state mean, and how working across party lines with the legislature will achieve a dynamic that can move us forward. Leave the muck to the press, and finally be the optimistic, jovial, smiling Treasurer we’ve voted for three times!
Comment by Dem Voting R Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 1:11 pm
SKEETER give it up the people in Stover’s home towm is running 10 to 1 for Shimkus.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 1:20 pm
If you’re reading all the comments you’re hopefully getting a good idea about why this is not a cut and dried decision either way.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 1:20 pm
She should go positive because the voters want that. They are overwhelmingly tired of the negative ads.
That said, I think it’s too late for her to win. Corruption is tolerated and the national political scene has been divisive. People tend to vote along party lines in that situation and in Illinois that means Democrats win, regardless.
Comment by doubtful Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 1:23 pm
I don’t think either positive or negative ads will deliver a win for JBT, so the question is moot.
Topinka needs to find something to shake-up the situation.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 1:44 pm
The gov’s new ad reminds me of the puppy ads Michael Steele is running in Maryland these days. It’s kind of a weird theme that both parties started picking up on. At least it makes the negative ads easier to stomach: “Michael Steele: He likes puppies, but he LOVES George Bush.”
Comment by Dan Vock Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 1:57 pm
Reflector:
The reason for the open beds is due to the lack of available nurses. This is a national crisis and not an Illinois problem. It’s pretty unfair to accuse an administration of not doing enough when the entire health industry is faced with nurse shortage. I must assume that those empty beds have been like that way before Blago came into office. I believe Federal Law mandates at least 2.5 hrs of care per resident. If that number can not be met, then no new residents are accepted until staff levels are increased.
Comment by Silas Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 2:33 pm
There seems to be a problem with Judy Barr because some people say she doesn’t have a “clear vision” for the state of Illinois. Fine, then go positive with the “clear vision” crap. But I wouldn’t say our current gov has a clear vision. And if he does, he certainly isn’t following through. I will keep this short… he claims that every child has a right to healthcare. And he says that every child can now get health insurance under his absurdly ill-named “All-Kids” program. Yet, if you make too much money, say, $35000/year, you don’t qualify!!! Judy needs to reach the middle class, because it is obvious that this goof can’t. And Rod, you aren’t the worst person in the world… you’re just the worse person in Illinois!!!
Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 2:59 pm
Maybe Lou and the Cubs will hire Judy in their finance office because nothing will help her now. I’ve never seen a candidate drive her own negatives down. Going positive would probably only help Rod. Remember, you’re dealing with a team straight from the Illinois GOP farm league. The same geniuses that brought you Alan Keyes!
Advice for Lou: Hope spring’s eternal.
Comment by hey all you middlemen Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 3:09 pm
Judy should keep bashing away.
No, the Cubs will NEVER win the World Series because they are in the same Division with the Cardinals who will not allow it.
RICH, WHY ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT THE CUBS WITH THE CARDINALS ON THE VERGE OF THE WORLD SERIES?????????????????
GO CARDS!!
METS ARE POND SCUM!
Comment by BIG R.PH Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 3:15 pm
Lou won a ring in 1990, but this team will give him angina.
Judy can’t get above 43% through negative ads. She may not be able to do it with positive ads but it is her best shot. I still think Rod buried her and it is too late even if he does an Edwin Edwards.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 3:19 pm
I’m not sure anyone was asking, or has ever asked, for your advice Skeeter…but that never stopped you from offering it.
Anyway, yes, Shimkus will be fine…funny comment about a vote for him being about kids…this coming from the party that’s pro abortion…good times!
Comment by Sweet Lou Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 3:22 pm
*ring* *ring* *ring*
Hey Rod, its Tony. How’s the campaign???
Rod: It is fine Tone. You alright?
Tony: Yeah, never better.
Rod: Okay, it has been a week since you were indicted… and as my right-hand guy, I just have to ask you… has it been long enough now that I can get my people out there saying that Judy is done in this campaign?
Tony: Yeah, it has been long enough… it’s not like I’m ever coming back…
Patrick: HEY! I can hear you guys!!!
Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 3:24 pm
Great world iew there Sweet Lou:
“Who cares if Congressmen abuse kids. As long as the kids are not aborted, it doesn’t matter.”
Is that that approach? Why do I suspect that you also opposed government funding for prenatal care?
How “Pro Life” of you.
Wake up. Shimkus knew and did nothing. If you disagree, send your kids to work in Congress with Shimkus running the program. My own will stay as far away from there as possible, at least until scum like Shimkus and Hastert are out of there. Of cours, that should be in about three weeks from now.
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 3:29 pm
I think Judy doesn’t know how to be positive or at least that is what has become of her campaign. I saw her interviewed after the Columbus Day Parade and instead of saying “It’s great to be out here supporting Italians”, she said something negative about Blago. It was something odd too. I just thought to myself, “Keep a post-parade interview about the parade and if you must say something, make it something normal.”
Comment by Tweed Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 3:30 pm
JBT needs to go positive and admit that she is a cardinal fan but still loves the cubs. There! That should do it. Oh, And Blago is Pay to Play on Steroids . . . hmmmm, maybe he could join the Cubs after he loses the election. He can have Corky’s spot.
Comment by Citizen A Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 3:31 pm
That new Blago spot should come with a free pair of hip waders.
I would SO like to re-mix his quotes from that spot in counterpoint to audio bites from Fitzgerald.
Can’t wait to see what happens next with Rezko. it won’t be good for Rod either way; it will be a quick kill or slow torture, but he’s going to fall from this, and no amount of slow camera crane dolly shots with soft focus can overcome that.
Comment by Come ON!?!?! Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 3:32 pm
That is a darn good commercial. I was waiting for him to say, “Ah did not have financial relations with that man, Mister Rezko” the Clinton parallels are so profound. As with Clinton, the fibbing started as soon as his pips started moving.
He’s not the worst guy in the world, the world is not going to end (may come close for Redd, myself and some others if the Mets win tonight) the State budget is not balanced, yada yada yada.
So, WSJBTD? AA thinks go positive. Why? Well, negative hasn’t worked. The polls all seem to concur on that. More importantly, time is short, Rod is in front, and you are outgunned. You need to bring back the “adults in charge”, loyal opposition, responsible, prudent official persona that you have put forth as a candidate and as a public officeholder throughout your career. You are worn out from the trail and it shows. Turn that to your advantage and talk about your work ethic-there is a true contrast between the guy who is jogging in his neighborhood while the legislature is in and the treasurer who turns out the lights in the Capitol. (I would have put up a Blago jogging ad months ago, but I’m not following my own advice.)
The polled voters sound like they’ve forgotten your record and have bought into the “what’s the thinking” mentality.
Now’s your last chance, if not too late already, to get some of those people back.
Let the media do the dirty work on Rod. They are more than happy to do the job. Between no-show Tony, Levine’s plea, and another surprise perhaps, Golden Gloves Rod could be up against the ropes straight through until the 7th.
No opinion on the Cubs other than they are a drag on Tribune Co. stock price. Well, so is the Tribune. Never mind.
PS: Hey Bill, is that you riding that little tractor in the background of Rod’s commercial?
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 3:42 pm
I’d have no trouble sending my kids to work for Shimkus…thanks for the advice!
But you have no pro-life credentials, or track record of caring for kids, why start now…oh, that’s right, because it’s a chance for you to ding a republican…forgot about your obsession.
Comment by Sweet Lou Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 4:01 pm
To whoever said that “As to JBT, she and her team are running the single worst serious Republican campaign that I can remember.”
Oh no. That would have to be the Alan Keyes fiasco. What was ANYONE thinking by bringing him in? The only plausible theory is that they wanted to bring in another black dude to go up against Barack Obama, and since they couldn’t run a more liberal guy against our current Senator Rock Star, they had to drag in a complete social/religious conservative.
But I’m glad they did it. Now they can honestly say that look, we gave a minority AND a social conserv a chance, and Illinois voters, even Republican voters/leaners won’t elect someone so far out of the mainstream. It was a necessary lesson to learn that it wasn’t going anywhere. It said to the social conservs, you had a shot, the voters spoke, and even our Illinois Republicans don’t want this.
This state has a more down-to-Earth crowd even in GOP territory in some of the ‘burbs. You CANNOT win in this state with either party if you’re a complete fruitcake like Keyes.
But it was fun to watch him cry and scream about Republicans not supporting him at all. Especially since he was dragged in from out of state, which was another big fat negative (the fact that he’s an extreme, far right fruitcake aside, that is).
But yes, Keyes has to be the lowest of lows. Glad it is over and done with and that the lesson was learned.
Comment by Angie Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 4:02 pm
Judy’s gotta go negative big time. No question. Again the analogies with the Poshard campaign of 1998. The frontrunner could start going more positive near the end, because he could afford to. Negatives could blow up in Judy’s face - but they might also save her. They almost saved Poshard in 1998.
At this point in her campaign, it’s gotta be high risk, high reward.
Comment by ZC Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 4:12 pm
No but I am in the ad. Watch carefully.
Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 4:13 pm
New tag line for Blago - ” What’s he Conspiring” - And on the sports front maybe afterall Fitzgerald will hit the game winning homer w/ bases loaded w/ Blago, Kelly, and Monk on the bases ( assuming Rezko’s still “at Large” with an arrest warrant (international) out. And the Cards win the series - God, Life IS good!
Comment by Citizen A Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 4:24 pm
Topinka should go positive. What does she have to lose at this point. Articulate her won vision. She has some good stuff from what I can tell. She can use that.
As for the governor’s ad. Well that hurt and that does indicate that Topinka needs a new strategy. Besides we’ve already seen what the governor can and has done so far in his term.
Comment by Levois Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 4:28 pm
Bill, are you one of the squirrels?
Comment by Ken in Aurora Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 4:50 pm
Rich: two potential QOTD’s:
1) Where is Bill in the commercial?
2) Will Rezko show?
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 5:05 pm
I think she should go positive. Blagojevich and his cronies are doing (and have done) an extremely good job showing the negative on himself. Blagojevich has shown us what he could and could not do; I think it is time to give someone else a shot. As a lifelong dem, originally from Chicago, I will not support this guy again. Judy or Rich will get my vote.
Comment by state worker A Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 5:31 pm
Rod’s claim that he’s produced a positive ad will certainly make for enlightening dinner conversation between him and his fellow inmates in the federal prison he is incarcerated in come this time in 2010.
Comment by fedup dem Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 6:11 pm
Attack! Attack! Attack! Judy needs to keep the negative ads coming.
Comment by Rex Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 6:25 pm
The real question regarding the Cubs is what time next season will we begin hearing that famous Cub anthem, “Wait until next year.” Will it start in August or July?
Comment by DRB Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 6:27 pm
Ken in Aurora - 4:50 p.m.
Absolutely hilarious!
Comment by Rex Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 6:45 pm
Frankly, I’d like to see the money she has left used to get her some counseling. She doesn’t seem to be looking or doing too well.
Comment by The Doctor Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:00 pm
Bill Cameron at WLS had fun with a Topinka quote today regarding Blago: “He’s aired (incredible number of) commercials trying to make me look bad so he looks better. Well, you can put perfume on a pig, but it isn’t going to smell any better”.
We’ve known for some time now Blago’s operation isn’t kosher. But this quote makes me think Judy has her steam up and isn’t about to put on an apron and serve milk and cookies and all positive spots.
It’s a middle of the road way to go, and they say never show your candidate’s face in negative spots about the other guy, but I think with the budget she’s got, and the time left, that’s the way to go: run negative spots, but the tags should be her, being upbeat and giving a line about one of her alternatives.
The Veterans story is a good one for this:
(Narrator, over scary imagery) Rod Blagojevich talks big about helping veterans, but for a $1500 bribe, you can bump a gulf veteran in line for a state job under his administration… and if you are looking for a bed at the state veteran’s home, they aren’t there, underfunded because Rod borrowed their money for use elsewhere.”(maybe a Picture of Blago sign over tollway arch)
(Judy)”I’m JBT, a military mom with a 20-year record of working hard for veterans, FOR REAL. I’ll put back the money taken from veterans services and respect the hiring rules for veterans… vote for me as Governor; together, we’ll make good on the promises THEY made you.”
Comment by Come ON!?!?! Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:57 pm
Bill, I found you, man. I won’t tell. Anybody asks, I’ll tell ‘em you’re on the grassy knoll.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:02 pm
I just read through all of today’s posts again. What strikes me as unbelievable are the Blago supporters knocking JBT for only being at 30% in the new poll while the incumbent governor is at 39%. Blago has spent millions, and millions, and millions on negative JBT ads and, with the Rezko indictment, we now know why he used this tactic. He’s smart enough to know that Fitz would hit him hard before the election. An incumbent governor 3 weeks before the election and he isn’t even at 40% and guys like Bill keep saying the race is over. It ain’t over ’till it’s over and this one is FAR from being in the win column for the Democrats. I predict a JBT win because Whitney gets over 10%.
Comment by Jechislo Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:21 pm
The Doctor 8:00 pm:
On the contrary. I talked to her in person just last week and she looked fantastic. Very upbeat and energetic.
Comment by Jechislo Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:31 pm
So, let me get this straight….
Within a week of the primary, Blago starts spending millions of dollars attacking Topinka over the airwaves.
Several months later, she goes on the air, with ads that basically nobody can take issue with factually, (such as simply showing him at his own press conference) and now Mr. Testicular Virility is going to complain that his opponent is claiming “he is the worst person in the world and the world is coming to an end?”
How can anyone even take this guy seriously?
I would call him a shameless politician, but that would be unfair to shameless politicians.
Comment by Establishment Republican Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 10:17 pm
My thought would be that Topinka needs a split; probably 75% positive and 25% negative.
The Positive: Blagojevich dodged the debates and thereby was able to avoid pesky, potentially embarrassing questions. In so doing, he also deprived Topinka of any chance to utilize that forum to promote her agenda, explain her plans and outline her proposed programs. At the end of the day, that added value may have benefited him more than his primary motivation did. Topinka needs to establish that she does in fact have a vision for Illinois and needs to establish that pronto, so 75% positive ads are in order. She should supplement these by stealing a page straight from the Governor’s playbook – generate as many press releases as she can crank out, as fast as she can crank them out. It worked for Blagojevich for his entire term as Governor - and those are FREE!
The Negative: I don’t disagree with those who have commented that the media can do a pretty good job of hounding Blagojevich for his misdeeds, but Topinka can’t rely on that exclusively. The $1,500 birthtism gift, “endemic hiring fraud”, the underassessed house and various contracts for contributors were all fun - and damaging - while they lasted, but news cycles are brief and the media cannot be counted on to keep pounding these points home daily. Once there are no new developments to a story, it will rapidly transition from the front page and headlines to the editorial page and relative obscurity, so 25% negative ads remain necessary to keep bringing the public back to these things.
I believe Carl Nyberg’s earlier comment that “Topinka needs to find something to shake-up the situation” sums things up well. Wouldn’t it be nice if she could give up commercials entirely and donate the remains of her advertising budget to Pat Fitzgerald? Let him use the money for staff overtime and maybe he can deliver an indictment of the Governor by election day. THERE is a press release that would matter!
Comment by Casey Jones Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 11:00 pm
Someone asked, “How can anyone even take this guy seriously?”
They’re Illinois Democrats! Good God, but that’s obvious. They act like they just don’t *get* it, which is why you assume they just don’t *get* it. Even if you think you’re doing a lesser of two evils vote, it ain’t rocket science to figure out that JBT came out of the Ryan fiasco unscathed, but the feds are crawling all over Blago’s administration. This is a no-brainer, so if you don’t *get* it, you’re running on NO brain.
And on “Topinka needs to find something to shake-up the situation,” here’s an idea. Fitz can roll out the indictment BEFORE the election and do us all a favor while also helping to save the Dems from themselves.
Comment by Angie Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 1:40 am
The smartest thing Judy can do in the way of a campaign ad is to simply confront “why” she did not speak out against Governor George Ryan when George Ryan was in office. That would give her a “huge” bump up in the polls with the right wing of the Illinois GOP Party if she had a reasonable answer. Until Judy does that, 30-40% of the GOP right-wing element will continue to refuse to vote for her. Rich Whitney will probably get those votes or these conservatives will simply not vote for governor. Most of them view Judy as simply “George Ryan with breasts”.
The right wing conservatives represent a very large percentage of the GOP voters. One simple commercial answering why she was silent during the “George Ryan Years” would give her one huge boost in the polls. Without this group, she hasn’t got a chance.
Comment by Beowulf Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:13 am