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Madigan’s advice, Rauner’s retort

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Illinois

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

House Speaker Michael Madigan told reporters earlier this month that he’d had a “frank discussion” with Gov. Bruce Rauner, “and I gave him good, solid advice.”

Word is, that advice had two parts.

First, the governor needs to find a way to get himself out of this long overtime session and state budget mess.

Second, if the governor thinks he can get himself out of this mess by somehow breaking the speaker’s will, he’s mistaken.

But the governor isn’t giving up. In fact, he has doubled down.

Rauner has made it clear that there will be no budget talks until the Democrats give in on his “Turnaround Agenda,” including his anti-union demands.

And several days after receiving Madigan’s “advice,” the governor started sending some very negative direct-mail pieces into some Democratic-controlled legislative districts.

The Rauner folks say almost 20 legislative districts were targeted last week. Both House and Senate districts were targeted. “More to come,” a Rauner guy told me.

The mailer I obtained from one of my former interns features an ominous photo of Speaker Madigan above and behind a picture of a smiling Rep. Michelle Mussman, D-Schaumburg, who won her race by 3 percentage points last year, despite optimism by Republicans that they had her on the run.

“Chicago political boss Mike Madigan wants your Rep. Michelle Mussman to kill the reforms you voted for,” claims the mailer, which displays her district office number and asks recipients to “Call Michelle Mussman now and tell her to side with taxpayers, not with Mike Madigan’s Chicago political machine.”

“Michelle Mussman should work for you, not Mike Madigan,” claims the other side of the mailer. “Tell Madigan & Mussman: No property tax hikes!” the mailer exhorts.

“Illinoisans already pay the second highest property taxes in the country, but Mike Madigan wants to use his powerful political machine and State Rep. Michelle Mussman to help him block Governor Rauner’s tax freeze reforms which benefit Illinois’ working families,” the somewhat wordy mailer claims, without, of course, noting that Rauner also wants to essentially eliminate collective bargaining rights for many heads of “working families” in that reform (see below).

“Tell Madigan & Mussman you demand term limits!” the mailer continues. “Political puppetmaster Mike Madigan has blocked reform for 44 years, protecting the status quo that put him in power. Illinois needs Michelle Mussman to stand up to Madigan to break the cycle of corruption and restore the integrity to the legislature by supporting term limits.”

“Call Michelle Mussman Right Now” the mailer commands, displaying her phone number in large letters at the bottom of the page.

The idea here is probably twofold.

First, put so much heat on Madigan’s members that they beg him to cut a deal with Rauner.

I don’t see that happening as long as the governor sticks by his anti-union demands. Madigan isn’t going to abandon the literal backbone of the Democratic Party because a few members are skittish.

The second part is likely to soften these members up for next year’s campaign, when they’ll be attacked again with the same sort of message.

That may work, but pretty much all political science studies have shown that when ad campaigns end, they tend to lose almost all of their punch. If Rauner is going to mail straight through Election Day next year, that’s a different story. But I doubt that will happen.

And there’s a real downside to this as well.

Once you attack legislators like this, they tend to “go political” right away. And since no other avenue is likely other than standing and fighting, these mailers could just entrench legislators ever deeper.

But, if nothing else, the mailers are a stark reminder that Rauner has a huge financial advantage over the Democrats.

Madigan’s three campaign committees reported raising a grand total of $618,000 in the second quarter, according to filings with the State Board of Elections. Madigan’s committees had $1.99 million sitting in the bank at the end of June 30, according to the filings.

Democratic Senate President John Cullerton’s two committees raised $592,000 and had just shy of $1.3 million on hand at the end of the quarter.

That wouldn’t be bad at all for the second quarter of an off year, but Rauner’s main campaign fund was sitting on $19.7 million at the end of the quarter. Rauner’s Turnaround Illinois PAC had an additional $2.7 million. The governor also has a “dark money” fund, but we don’t know how much is in it.

Times have changed.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 8:52 am

Comments

How can you call out Democrats for being against property levy freezes. Democrats in the Senate almost past it last week. But it did not contain anti union clauses on Prevailing wages and other labor issues. Has anyone said how much the cities and other governments will really save not paying prevailing wage?

Comment by Huh Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:02 am
I’m guessing Rauner got most or all of this money from the 1 percenters, and not from $5 to $50 contributions from middle class families. His turnaround agenda could just as well be called the 1 percenter agenda.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:02 am
The governor has the ways and means, through his office and his piles of campaign cash, to sell his agenda to the people. Supposedly, he’s a great salesman.

Put the anti-union stuff on the TV and sell it.

He won’t do it because he know’s it’s a loser and he’s scared of public opinion.

He’ll hold the budget ransom and deprive the people of services they pay taxes for every day in service of a reactionary agenda he doesn’t have the guts to to speak honestly about and stand up for.

He wants it given to him, like he’s entitled.

Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:02 am
===That wouldn’t be bad at all for the second quarter of an off year, but Rauner’s main campaign fund was sitting on $19.7 million at the end of the quarter. Rauner’s Turnaround Illinois PAC had an additional $2.7 million. The governor also has a “dark money” fund, but we don’t know how much is in it.===

Bruce Rauner is betting;

Those who have the gold, make the rules.

The measure for Rauner isn’t the quality of the argument, but by the balances of monies he can leverage.

A new day. Times have changed.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:03 am
If Rauner is going to mail straight through Election Day next year, that’s a different story…..the only ones who will benefit from that are the landfill fee collector’s

Comment by foster brooks Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:08 am
Term limits and redistricting are the goo-goo beards. They’re not the real agenda.

Any time now, the governor can cut TV spots explaining all the goodness of gutting collective bargaining, ending prevailing wage and pushing people out of tneir pensions.

That’s what he really wants.

Stand in front of the cameras and sell it.

Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:11 am
Stupid question. Did Rauner actually propose the Turnaround Agenda before the election and run on it? I don’t remember anti-union ads or prevailing wage stuff as part of the election. If not, how can he claim he was voted in to do this stuff???

Comment by Bud Keyes Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:11 am
Good column. Frustrating situation.

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:14 am
“the only ones who will benefit from that are the landfill fee collector’s” Here’s hoping they use recyclable material.

Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:14 am
==I’m guessing==

Yes, you are

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:16 am
The provisions that Governor Rauner wants in a property tax freeze bill would allow the elected officals of the city, school board, or other enity to prohibit all collective bargaining for wages, benefits, hours of work, vacation, and on and on. The only limitation would be a two year prohibition on a wage cut, after that it’s fair game apparently.

Governor Rauner’s severe restrictions on collective bargaining are not just meant to be mean, they are strategic in both cost containment and eventually reducing local costs to taxpayers. As the Republicans in the Senate who objected to tax freeze without these provisions pretty much admitted during the debate.

Rich is very correct in pointing to the crux of the dilema relating to the labor provisions wanted by the Governor. Basically Governor Rauner is trying to implement a Scott Walker plan, it worked in Wisconsin for several years and now additonal budget cuts are required. The reason is public sector workers are part of a broader labor market and there is only so low you can go and still get qualified workers for many job categories.

Comment by Rod Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:17 am
Are even mail pieces from here to election day enough to flip the house and Senate GOP in a presidential year? I guess Rauner can try holding the budget hostage from now til then to up the crisis factor since he doesn’t actually care about this state so he has nothing to lose. Wonderful.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:20 am
I think that the mailers are trying to wake up potential challengers for those districts.

The GOP candidate selection against Mussman the last 3 elections were all White Males with some political history. GOP needs to wake up some gender and racial diversity in the district. This may or may not be a consideration for sending the mailer.

Comment by Pete Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:21 am
Why would Madigan cave? These members are going to be targeted anyway.

Rauner never learned that it’s hard to bluff when you’ve already shown your cards.

Comment by Daniel Plainview Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:27 am
If Mr Madigan would pass a balanced budget, Rauner would have no excuse to hold the state hostage with his union busting agenda.

Comment by sickntired Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:30 am
I’m guessing that Rauner’s retort is similar to what my friend Richard says in the Old 97’s song, “Intervention ”

If you don’t know the song, it’s worth looking up.

Comment by Elo Kiddies Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:30 am
hisgirlfriday. I thought this from that ominous night he was elected: He doesn’t care and he has nothing to lose. I was afraid then, and terrified now. We have a “vanity” person in power. He is gonna show us how it’s run. Worse, yet, if he fails….he still has nothing to lose because his bank account will still be growin’ Which is basically what it’s all about….Money and Power and being written in history books. Scarry, very Scarry.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:33 am
===If Mr Madigan would pass a balanced budget, Rauner would have no excuse to hold the state hostage with his union busting agenda.===

Or pass Rauner’s own budget, vote for a tax increase to pay for the $3 billion needed to fund Rauner’s budget, then have Rauner sign his own budget, as proposed, with a hefty tax increase to pay for it to boot.

That’s fun.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:39 am
Times have changed. It appears Rauner is willing to “campaign” for the next four years. This is beyond amazing.

Comment by The Colossus of Roads Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:46 am
Rauner is biting off may more than he can chew. Balance the budget maybe get Madigan to cave on Tort reform or Unemployment Compensation or Property Tax relief and save the rest fr the next election.

Comment by Bud Keyes Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:57 am
Why is Rauner so gung ho on implementing an agenda that has ruined Wisconsin’s economy? It really makes no sense. Every state that has implemented these so called “Reforms” is no seeing any big improvement.

Comment by chiagr Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:57 am
Rauner $22 million plus in campaign funds. Madigan/Cullerton $4 million in campaign funds.
In politics, money counts. Advantage Rauner. Other than a few scripted Democratic political shows press conference, with some people affected by some of the cuts and loss of funding, the rest of the public is giving this a big YAWN
Kids will be going back to school in a few weeks, since Rauner snookered the Dems on that budget item by signing it and taking potential angry parent out of the picture. Game to Rauner.

Comment by Apocalypse Now Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 9:59 am
I look at the mailer as a bow shot to the carrhart caucus to tow the line or your next

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:01 am
===Kids will be going back to school in a few weeks, since Rauner snookered the Dems on that budget item by signing it and taking potential angry parent out of the picture. Game to Rauner.===

So all the bluffing and U-turns are… making Rauner… “Win”?

lol.

Rauner caves at the mere hint of adversity. That’s not winning anything. Ever.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:01 am
I recycle, without reading, all political mailers including those from my party. I wish the money to print and mail those could be used to actually help citizens.

Comment by illinoised Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:02 am
I do not think Rauner would even sign his own budget, if sent to him. He’s too focused on his Turnaround agenda, since ‘crisis creates leverage’. Its’ going to take an outcry of the people based upon results of not having a budget.

I also recycle mailers without reading them.

Comment by Thoughts Matter Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:12 am
@chigar:

Because when people hear “Right to Work” they think they are getting something they don’t currently have. Like when Women were given the Right to Vote.

But it’s a lie. “Right to Work” is a marketing slogan.

Comment by Jack Stephens Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:23 am
Oh, Oswego Willy, your party continues to disappoint you. What to do? What to do?

Comment by Apocalypse Now Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:26 am
- Apocalpse Now -,

You try to find what makes the most headway, in the politics and governing of the state, and cheer and hope your side can cobble enough support so the state wins with your party’s true ideas. Then the pragmatist counts those ideas, that actually have a chance at passing. I’m fine, thanks.

Being a victim, cheering the kidnapper, I’ll leave that to you.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:30 am
=hey are strategic in both cost containment and eventually reducing local costs to taxpayers. As the Republicans in the Senate who objected to tax freeze without these provisions pretty much admitted during the debate.=

Right, because we are going to go out and start cutting peoples wages. That is, we are all going to go out and start cutting the wages of taxpayers. Highly unlikely.

Just once I would like to see a successful economic model where by wages are driven down. Just once, in America not China or India.

Typically you would have to demonstrate some kind of legitimate research and include some data to support the theory. To date there has been a dearth of data and an ample supply of political sloganeering trying to appeal to the meatball anti everything crowd.

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:31 am
AN, that was quite devious of the governor to sign as is the K-12 bill the GA sent him, lol.

Dude, you think it’s a game. Too bad tne governor didnt take up polo.

It really isn’t, but only the most loony and hopeless partisan would care who is “winning.”

Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:33 am
My governor fighting for term limits and giving cash to career politicians that have outlived there stay. What he says and what he does are two different things?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:35 am
I got a mailer with the same verbiage bug with Mautino’s name. I sent an email to Mautino demanding that he support the middle class and stick with Madigan.

Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:44 am
All of you are missing the elephant in the room (no pun intended). These posts ignore the week from hell the Madigans had last week. I’m not saying Raunerites have done things flawlessly, but I’d rather be holding their cards than MJM and daughter’s cards….a little perspective, please! These developments aren’t happening in a vacuum.

Comment by DuPage Don Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:49 am
=== These posts ignore the week from hell the Madigans had last week===

This isn’t a campaign. And election day is a very long way away.

Get to governing.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:50 am
Slick. Term limits and property taxes poll well, so they get mentioned. Then pivot to madigan-bad, he is against rauners (unspecified) reforms. Rinse and repeat.

Rauner fails to accept that as gov he has the burden to get govt working, not destroy it to save us from unions.

We will continue to see pain for the sake of pain.

Comment by Langhorne Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 10:51 am
===I’d rather be holding their cards than MJM and daughter’s cards…===

You… feel better? I mean, do you feel better, you know, making the Kassian, “…MJM and daughter’s cards…”

Do you feel… better?

It’s time to govern. You can wear your “Fire Madigan” gear afterwards.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 11:04 am
We keep getting distracted thinking about some sort of budget impasse. This isn’t about the budget. When we reach some position on the Turnaround items for now, we get a budget for now.

Rauner has three simple Turnaround Items to sell to the public: Property Tax Freeze, Term Limits, and Remapping. All are very popular ideas in simple form. Whenever “reform” is demanded by his side, these are what are publicly cited.

Rauner is using them as cover for the other Turnaround items: general attack on union funding, relief from prevailing wage requirements, removal of public union bargaining rights, reduction in workers’ comp beyond what has already occurred, DCEO restructure, and tort reform. These items are either of little concern to most voters, or would be seriously resisted if they were fully understood. Rauner and crew avoid talking about them, but they still are held as conditions required to move forward on other things.

Therefore, Rauner is also holding the popular parts of his Turnaround agenda as hostage for getting the less popular ones. He is afraid to set priorities between them, because he knows he would then probably lose the less popular ones.

What seems unclear is an operational plan to get what he can, when he can. All of it, all now, won’t work.

Comment by walker Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 11:17 am
It’s the governor who wants property tax hikes apparently since he refuses to support a property tax freeze Democrats have repeatedly brought up.

Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 12:09 pm
The property tax hikes are a cover for stripping prevailing wage and collective bargaining. Anytime the Dems introduce bills without those provisions, the Governor’s staff calls them a “sham.”

Comment by Tournaround Agenda Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 12:34 pm
Whoops, meant “property tax freeze.”

Comment by Tournaround Agenda Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 12:34 pm
@walker:

I agree with your point. That is why Bruce doesn’t call it Union Busting….rather it’s “Right to Work”. Who wouldn’t want a Right to Work?

Comment by Jack Stephens Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 12:42 pm
=
AN, that was quite devious of the governor to sign as is the K-12 bill the GA sent him, lol.

Dude, you think it’s a game. Too bad tne governor didnt take up polo.

It really isn’t, but only the most loony and hopeless partisan would care who is “winning.” =
If you don’t think the unions, business people and those making contributions and lobbying don’t keep score, then you are badly mistaken.

Comment by Apocalypse Now Tuesday, Jul 21, 15 @ 1:32 pm