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Motion, not movement

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* Rep. Chad Hays (R-Catlin) has it right…

“Ordinarily there’s a deal brewing in the backroom, right? But I don’t think there’s a deal brewing,” [Hays] said.

The two sides aren’t even talking, as far as he’s been able to determine.

“When I was (in Springfield) last week they hadn’t met for two or three weeks. It’s possible they met late last week, but I don’t think there’s any reason to believe there’s been any major progress,” he said.

Speaker Madigan said yesterday that he hadn’t met with the governor in ten days.

No deal can ever be cut as long as people aren’t talking. And there just doesn’t seem to be any urgency on either side right now.

So, until then, both sides will lob grenades at each other to pass the time and generate some news.

But, in reality, there is no news because nothing truly “new” is happening.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:24 am

Comments

“What now?”

“We wait.”

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:27 am
Well, if the AFCME contract expires Friday, then what happens on Monday?

Lockout? Strike? That will create some sense of urgency.

Comment by Centennial Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:29 am
That is just plain sad…..

Comment by Outsider Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:29 am
From what I hear, the respective budget staff people haven’t been meeting with one another informally either.

Comment by GA Watcher Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:32 am
“We’re outta gas.”
“Yeah, mind if we fill’r'up?”
“Nope. I said we’re out of gas.”

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:33 am
About 80% of FY16 is in place.

The heat will come from social service provider layoffs and shutdowns.

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:35 am
Very good summary by Rep. Hays.

And when Rich says he’s right, well Rich isn’t “speaking in a vacuum.”

Disappointing.

When’s the next pressure point?

Comment by walker Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:35 am
We couldn’t strike on Monday even if we wanted to.

Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:36 am
We have to vote on a strike first. And we still have bill 1229 waiting further action.

Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:38 am
== When’s the next pressure point? ==

When the State contractor’s stop supplying services. A number of agencies use contracted service providers, but one of the most out-sourced (in terms of actual service delivery) is DCFS. That agency is my guess for the next flash point …

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:41 am
“there goes ‘ol Blood and Guts”

“Yeah, our blood, his guts”

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:41 am
Budgeting via court order means no crisis (yet). no crisis means no leverage. No leverage means no activity. Keep twiddling your thumbs.

Comment by SAP Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:41 am
So will AFCME employees show up to work on Monday without a contract extension?

Honest question. I don’t really understand the process.

Comment by Centennial Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:41 am
@RNUG try the Dept of Vehicles as well, everything is 100% relied upon vendor supply of incoming parts and services, no parts = no wheels — no wheels = state stops.

Comment by Allen D Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:43 am
nothing is happening because for Rauner it is not about the budget, he does not care how much pain he causes to others, it is all about his agenda and destroying unions.

Comment by reasonable Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:46 am
Didn’t Quinn and Madigan craft a deal last time that funded some things for only eight months?

In all seriousness, I’m not sure what talking is going to accomplish if that’s what Madigan considers to be responsible budgeting.

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:48 am
=== When’s the next pressure point? ===

1) State fair parade. Madigan isn’t in the parade, they won’t have him to boo. But if there’s no budget in place by then, or if he is still pressing union-busting measures, the news coverage is gonna make Rauner permanently own this mess.

2) Watch the backlog of unpaid bills from FY 2015 evaporate. As long as state vendors have cash coming in the door, they are solvent, and they know that as soon as a budget is inked, the flood gates will open.

But as soon as the money from FY 2015 is all in the door, and there is no FY 2016 money coming in, they have a cash flow problem. They might be able to borrow some, but any bank who gives them a loan when there is no budget in place is a fool.

3) Labor day. First, you will have the parades, anti-Rauner sentiment everywhere. But its also the unofficial end of summer, and while votes might have been ready to have this drag out all summer, they will notice that summer is over and Rauner still has fixed the budget.

4) Credit downgrade. I expect it will come sometime in mid-September. That’s what the agencies are telegraphing.

Comment by Juvenal Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:49 am
“So will AFCME employees show up to work on Monday without a contract extension?”

Yes. AFSCME members can’t strike without a strike vote. And SB 1229 is still waiting action by the Gov.

Comment by Nick Name Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:49 am
Yes we will show up for work on Monday without a contract. If bill 1229 doesn’t become law, then union members may be asked for a strike vote.

Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:52 am
MAP aid for college students will be critical come late August.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:53 am
Stay strong union members… If we stick together we shall succeed. If we fracture… Not so much.

Comment by Triple fat Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:55 am
Juvenal: Great point on late Accounts Payable. That money due in fiscal 2015 should still flow for a while. Better late than nothing.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:56 am
Exactly what “leverage” does Team Rauner think they can use to force a capitulation by the longest serving speaker in US history?

With 75% of the budget going out the door and the remaining 25% easily pinnable on the Gov for not signing temporary budgets, where is the leverage?

Seriously, if Rauner superstars are pinning their hopes to snarky letters and daily press releases then they aren’t worth their govt salaries.

Comment by Abe the Babe Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:58 am
August 4th SB 1229 becomes law unless the Gov vetos it. Strangely enough, the Senate is schedules to reconvene that same day. Override maybe?

Comment by Earl Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:05 am
“Longest serving Speaker” might be the type of thing to revile moderates and conservatives, and give pause to true progressives within the Democratic party as well. I do not wish to let Rauner be left off the hook, but the Speaker needs to be held to the same standard. All this is right now is political gamesmanship. No one seems to be pushing for what is needed to fix Illinois’s broken budget, which is a progressive tax system.

Comment by Southern Illinois Hoopdee Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:05 am
All the previous comments about the Governor owning this are coming home to roost. The GA has passed a budget, has offered to pass a new revised budget. The gov won’t discuss the budget until he gets his way on unrelated issues. The GA can sit and wait him out.

Comment by Relocated Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:09 am
Madigan is just waiting on some movement from the Governor’s office. If necessary he can just sit back and watch the Governor’s poor approval numbers continue to slide over the summer. Rauner may not even care about his approval numbers because he may not even run again but the GOP members in the GA care. He will drag them down in the 2016 midterm election if this disapproval trend continues.

Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:14 am
Can Governor Rauner find enough supporters for Governor’s Day at the State Fair to outnumber the protesters?

Comment by overcooked Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:15 am
AFSCME and other unions will continue to show up. They understand that there will be no sympathy for public employees in a strike. My feeling is the Governor will attempt at lockout but keep in mind he only controls one branch of government. I think keeping services running with National Guard, retirees, etc. is probably an unrealistic expectation.

Comment by Stones Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:15 am
Always thought sb1229 would be used as a bargaining chip. Accept x and we will “fail” to override the veto. Of course if you can’t sit together and bargain you can’t have bargaining chips. Rauner keeps lobbing grenades it might pass just to spite him. At that point which important duties are left to the governor this fiscal year? Sb1229 veto passes AFSCME is safer till post ‘18.

Interesting times.

Comment by Mason born Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:18 am
“If bill 1229 doesn’t become law, then union members may be asked for a strike vote.”
That is the dumbest reason I have ever heard for a strike. Don’t act stupid by striking. You are getting paid. You do not get paid nor will you qualify for unemployment benefits while on strike.

Comment by Mama Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:19 am
Sulu - “Captain! The warp drive is out of control and we are now at Warp 9!”

Kirk - “Scotty, where are we going?”

Scotty - “I dunno captain, but we’re gettin’ there mighty fast!”

Comment by Omega Man Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:20 am
I can’t help but think of the lyrics to Pink Floyd’s “Keep Talking”…

—-
I think I should speak now
I can’t seem to speak now
My words won’t come out right
I feel like I’m drowning
I’m feeling weak now
But I can’t show my weakness
I sometimes wonder
Where do we go from here
—

It’s too bad the issues here are far more important than a split in a prog rock band.

Comment by AC Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:20 am
You can get unemployment benefits if you are locked out so…

Comment by Mama Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:21 am
First Point since there is no budget I feel like they shouldn’t be allowed to collect any income tax from me in fact that should include sales and gas tax. I’m sure they would solve the budget quickly then! Point Two is a question can the State pay their rent for office buildings without a budget? If not. Then I would think it would take very long for the owners to lock them out of the buildings for not paying their rent!

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:26 am
===Then I would think it would take very long for the owners to lock them out of the buildings for not paying their rent! ===

That would be a really stupid move unless another tenant was waiting in the wings. Those owners know they’ll get paid.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:29 am
@RNUG, there is a Federal consent decree that is forcing payment to the DCFS contractors. It’s the DHS contractors that will be slowly strangled as the FY15 money dries up. I predict late August to mid-Sept. we will begin seeing an increase in layoffs and furloughs when providers begin to have serious cash flow problems. Maybe even into October.

Comment by Pawn Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:29 am
If Rauner takes this standoff through a lockout or strike, it’s going hurt him more than it hurts state workers. You can’t be on attack against every employee in this state (except for his Superstars™, the only staff he’s approved pay raises) and expect to win approval. I just wonder how long the ILGOP allow him to keep on this track.

Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:31 am
Argh. THIS is one of the issues with unions. Never compromise. 15% of the workforce in Illinois is unionized. 15%! That’s it!
Tail wagging dog.

- Triple fat - Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 10:55 am:

Stay strong union members… If we stick together we shall succeed. If we fracture… Not so much.

Comment by Anon2U Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:33 am
Abe the Babe-

They might find the leverage by spinning what you just laid out. Madigan is the longest serving speaker in the US… 75% of the budget now has to go out the door… whos fault is that? Madigan

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:34 am
=== 15%! That’s it!===

Yeah, but that translates into something like 34 percent of voters being from union households.

Who in their right minds goes after a highly organized third of the state?

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:34 am
=I just wonder how long the ILGOP allow him to keep on this track.=

It is HIS party, they need HIS permission to do or say anything. Just ask Ron Gidwitz.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:35 am
“I just wonder how long the ILGOP allow him to keep on this track”

I can’t help but suspect that Rauner’s real goal was and still is to destroy the ILGOP in order to “save” it, i.e. remake it in his image.

Comment by Secret Square Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:39 am
==That would be a really stupid move unless another tenant was waiting in the wings. Those owners know they’ll get paid.==

In Springfield, with a lot of otherwise underutilized former retail and bank space, a landlord would be out of their mind to evict the state. The state rents a lot of prime downtown Chicago property too, and I’m not so sure at least one landlord there wouldn’t be happier with a different Tennant.

Comment by AC Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:39 am
=Who in their right minds goes after a highly organized third of the state?=

Rauner. And the other 66% that can’t afford the 34%

Comment by Anon2U Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 11:45 am
==They might find the leverage by spinning what you just laid out. Madigan is the longest serving speaker in the US… 75% of the budget now has to go out the door… whos fault is that?==

75% of the budget being spent is not going to get any heat. Paying people and services does not a crisis make.

Its the 25% that could generate heat. So please explain to me how the governor will not wear the jacket if he continues to veto attempts at paying that 25%?

Comment by Abe the Babe Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:00 pm
Your 66% is really only 1% which is why Rauner’s agenda has not gotten any traction in the GA.

Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:02 pm
==Who in their right mind goes after a highly organized third of the state?==

Rauner. Conflict is what drives him, not resolution. (I think that was his intended meaning of shakin’ up Springfield—–create as much chaos as possible as he chuckles) He seems to need to put his pet peeves into the spotlight, front and center and of course, that is unionization. As far as protestors at the state fair I can hear him saying “Bring them ON!”

Comment by AnonymousOne Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:03 pm
August 1 is fast approaching. 101 years since Kaiser Bill and Czar Nick blundered into war that destroyed their empires and killed millions.
Good news is that this conflict is much smaller.

Time for the leaders to pivot, reframe the conflict, and find a way for each to win something. They both love the State and its people. Act like it.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:07 pm
Maybe they are all just waiting on the State Fair…. I expect there will be a lot of public posturing there that does not involve corn dogs…

Comment by Ben Franklin Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:11 pm
A Jack, you’re off.
You’re argument loses credibility when you union guys say things like “1%’rs” and claim total ownership of the middle class. It just ain’t as you see it.

Comment by Anon2U Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:16 pm
Good stats Rich. I believe this is why the Governor signed the education bill. Gets the biggest union which is the IEA working and out of the fight. Get rid of them and what are the numbers?

Union pressure has always been from the upper class down. But when you are making 50k a year and live in a town where the average income is under 33k, the lower class will push back. They are wondering why they have to take cuts, and pay more income, property, sales, and gas taxes, to pay for people who they perceive don’t work as hard as them in jobs they will never get.

I don’t think we know how it filters out right now. But if you make 50k a year in an air conditioned job working 40 hours a week and think someone making 30k a year working 50 hours a week in two crappy jobs has your back, your wrong

Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:20 pm
Stones: “I think keeping services running with National Guard, retirees, etc. is probably an unrealistic expectation.”

Unrealistic? Totally impossible. It would be a nightmare and the blame for the chaos would be pinned entirely on Rauner.

Comment by IllinoisBoi Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:33 pm
Maybe the Gov and Dem leaders should watch the DVD version of “The Edge” with Illinois playing the part of the “woman”.

Comment by jt Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:39 pm
I would think the union wouldn’t consider a strike unless Rauner breaks off negotiations and forces the workers to take his “my way or the highway” contract demands (500% healthcare increase, “voluntarily” transfer to Tier 2 pensionand more). If he did then the union would have members vote on whether to accept his terms or strke.

And since Rauner’s office announced in June they would continnue to negotiate in good faith, I would think that a strike forced by Rauner breaking off negotiations would be owned by him, not the union.

Comment by Jeep Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:46 pm
Yes, employees will show up to work on Monday.

Comment by Facts are Stubborn Things Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:49 pm
no parts = no wheels — no wheels = state pays $0.575 per mile.

There fixed it for you.

Comment by Huh? Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:56 pm
Both sides are now just set on performing their version of the Haka.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BI851yJUQQw

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 12:58 pm
AC, the State may lease a fair amount of property in downtown Chicago, but the vast majority of it wouldn’t fall under the market’s definition of “prime.”

Also, many State leases have a very favorable (to the State) provision in re: non-payment of rent. Nobody’s getting evicted.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 1:10 pm
If there is a lockout it would very difficult to get unemployment considerin the people who do that will be locked out as well. But im sure a retiree and 3 national guardsman will figure out a way to process 10,000 unemployment claims in a timely manner

Comment by over it Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 1:12 pm
In FY 2014 it was 367,832 students who received MAP so a comparable number will be without state support for college in a month.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 1:34 pm
All state retirees need to realize that AFSCME’s fight is their fight.

If the governor gets his way on the health insurance, the plan for both will be downgraded to a “worst in the nation” Bronze Plan (which will save the State a lot of money on premiums), but the individual deductible and copay amounts will go WAY WAY UP.

People will basically be responsible for paying the first 40% of anything outside of the yearly “wellness” checkup. Ask anyone who retired with 20 years or more of service just how “free” their free health insurance is!

Comment by Omega Man Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 1:34 pm
=== All state retirees need to realize that AFSCME’s fight is their fight. ===

The Medicare eligible folks think that AFSCME sold them down the river when they agreed to Medicare Advantage. I’m still in the same boat with employees so I understand that I’ve got no other choice than hope AFSCME prevails.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 1:41 pm
==And the other 66% that can’t afford the 34%==

My parents, who were both members of unions, will be interested to find out that you can’t support them. I’m sure they’ll be looking for that lost income you seem to think you provide to them. Are you really that goofy to think that non-union people support union people? That’s just ridiculous.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 2:11 pm
The AC guy who doesnt like supporting union workers, should let his customers know how he feels. Wouldn’t want him to have the moral dilemma of getting his pay for work on a union household. He’ll have to turn down work from anyone in a union.

Comment by Jeep Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 2:38 pm
Pawn -

Well, a while back I did predict October for a final budget …

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 2:39 pm
Aw - RNUG -, now you’re just showin’ off, lol.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 2:44 pm
The strategy of divide and conquer is certainly being employed to it’s fullest extent with this administration. Let’s see…….union vs. non-union……retirees vs. workers…….1% vs. 99%…taxpayers vs. ???????…….public vs private….and on and on. Way to go on making all ILlinoisans proud (need I say snark). Disgusting politics these days. Somehow, I don’t think this strategy is the way to get our state working efficiently and on track, competitive with the other 49.

Comment by AnonymousOne Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 2:46 pm
@ Demoralized,
We non-union folks do support the union folks financially. Thru taxes. Where the rub comes is when union wages have risen 18% over inflation since 2003. When pension plans have become so generous that they seriously crowd out funding for education and programs for the disabled. When we cannot reform how government delivers services with updated IT infrastructure because implementation of those systems would result in union positions being cut and therefore opposed.
Maybe I’m just whistling past the graveyard here but it sure would be nice for unions to become part of the solution here.

Comment by Anon2U Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 2:54 pm
==The GA has passed a budget==

Their second woefully unbalanced budget in two years, and under two different Governors.

What is the one constant there? The GA. Easy to communicate that message to voters. Especially with a few million $.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 3:05 pm
===Easy to communicate that message to voters. ===

Meh.

Voters don’t vote for a very long time.

Better to just govern.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 3:09 pm
==Better to just govern.==

Very much so. Both sides are now allowing politics to interfere with governing to an abnormal degree. The mansion and both GA bodies need to work in conjunction for this state to function well.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 4:27 pm
An eternal campaign comes at the expense of currently governing.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 4:28 pm
== When pension plans have become so generous that they seriously crowd out funding for education and programs for the disabled. ==

- Anon2U - , the pensions haven’t become more generous; it’s that the State is now reaching the top of the 1995 Edgar ramp in repaying the many years of borrowing / non-payment. In fact, because of the new hires under ‘Tier 2′, the “normal” pension costs are slowly decreasing. This year the “normal” cost for the pensions is about $1.9B out of the projected $7B FY16 payment; the other approximately $5.1B is paying back some of the skipped / borrowed amount. As soon as the $110B shortage (today’s dollars / projection) in the pension fund is fully repaid, the annual pension cost will be much less.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 29, 15 @ 8:41 pm
According to the Champaign-Urbana News-Gazette, our friend Rep. Hays has cashed his check from Gov. Rauner.

Comment by Lynn S, Thursday, Jul 30, 15 @ 2:54 am