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Crosstabs are here. Discuss.
In an election for Governor of Illinois today, 10/23/06, incumbent Democrat Rod Blagojevich’s support is down, Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka’s support is down, and Green Party Candidate Rich Whitney’s support has doubled, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis. Blagojevich today gets 44%, down 1 from an identical SurveyUSA KSDK-TV poll released 9/20/06. Topinka gets 34% today, down 5 points from 9/20. Whitney gets 14%, twice the 7% he got on 9/20. SurveyUSA observes that in two Governor polls released today 10/23, all “major party” candidtaes are down; minor party candidates are up. Could this mean that the anti-Republican sentiment detected in a number of SurveyUSA polls over the past 21 days is now manifesting itself more generally into an anti-establishment, anti-insider movement? Time, and more polling, will tell. It is possible the phenomenon is limited to Maine and Illinois, and not extensible elsewhere. That said, it is interesting enough to take note of, here.Among Illinois independents, the candidates are effectively tied: Topinka gets 31%, Whitney 29%, Blagojevich 27%. Topinka had led Blagojevich by 12 among Independents, now leads Whitney by 2 in this group, where Whitney has doubled his support. 73% of Democrats vote for Blagojevich. 74% of Republicans vote for Topinka. Among female voters, Blagojevich is down 10 points; Whitney is getting many of these female votes; his support has tripled, from 4% to 11%, among women.
Among white voters, Topinka is down 5, Blagojevich is down 4. Whitney is up 9. In the Collar Counties of Chicago, Blagojevich is down 9, Topinka is down 2. Whitney is up 13. Blagojevich leads 3:1 in Chicago. Topinka leads 4:3 downstate. Blagojevich was first elected Governor in 2002. Topinka has been Illinois Treasurer since 1994.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 7:24 am
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I think Whitney’s support is only going to grow, the more credible he begins to appear the more his support will steamroll. If Friday’s revelations further damage the Gov. Topinka’s folks better be ready to grab the fallout. Right now it appears the fallout is going green.
Comment by leigh Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 7:35 am
this might be a very good year to have exit polling done…
Comment by bored now Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 7:39 am
I think JBT needs a huge Generation Y turnout.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 7:40 am
yawn…
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 7:58 am
Wow, it’s amazing that a Green party candidate will actually this time around clinch the election for a Dem. The anti-Blago left, which would have no problem going for Topinka in a two-way race due to her moderate views will go to Whitney instead. It would be nice if the winner got less than 40%.
Also, the National Review is running a major piece about Rod Blagojevich:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y2UzNDFlZTNiNzJjNGIwMWU5ZTFmOWMzODE4M2Q5MTE=
Comment by Larry Horse Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 7:58 am
2 weeks away. When is Judy going to start her campaign? I think the Sun-Times endorsement was very telling. While we all expected the editorial boards to support her, the endorsement of Rod by the Sun-Times and its newspaper group was very important because it shows that when you get past the allegations and look at what this administration has done and will do its a no-brainer, Rod is the better choice. People should vote based on facts, not allegations and the facts of what has been accomplished by this administration are not in dispute, Rod delivered on healthcare, he delivered on education and created jobs while not raising taxes.
Judy’s problem is her campaign has always been about Rod not about her. Her strategy is not working. Given the headlines Rod should be more vulnerable than he is, but Judy has no strategy. If you main campaign strategy is to hope and pray that the US Attorney indicts your opponent . . .YOU HAVE NO STRATEGY.
She has not told us why to vote for her, she has only given reasons not vote for Rod and it looks like people aren’t buying it. Its not over till its over, but for Rod does not even have a viable candidate as an opponent, there are two weeks left, will one show up?
I know I’m about to get lectured about how allegedly corrupt Rod is, about how bad of Governor he is, etc. But the reality is he is beating Judy, maybe the GOP should have actually ran a real candidate.
Comment by wndycty Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 8:06 am
It’s still amazing to me that people are (and they will) going to re-elect a man that is so close to indictment he can smell it. He takes Ryan’s level of corruption and bumps it up a few notches.
Unfortunately, his Republican challenger is not any better. She’s definately not a reformer and lacks the skills to govern such a diverse state.
It really is a shame that Whitney can’t get more traction. I’ve always been anti-green, but this guy seems like the best option.
Comment by Anon... Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 8:28 am
I think people will come to their senses and vote JBT, with a decent showing for a Greenie for Whitney. It’d be nice to have a real third party threat, but as more and more bad news come in about Blago’s cronies and homies, people will see the dire conditions and vote JBT.
Comment by Wumpus Diva Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 8:30 am
There is clearly a lot of dissatisfaction with politicians generally. Look at the editorials attacking the governor — almost none of them focus on policy issues so much as they focus on the investigations and alleged corruption. Because in Illinois (and nationally) politicians of both parties have a sordid history of scandal, the misdeeds of one party can at this point be seen as a commentary on the system as much as the party (witness the decline of Topinka’s numbers when Blagojevich has a scandal). The media, while paying lip service to the desirability of a campaign about issues, is in fact incapable of covering such a campaign, so it focuses on scandal and mudslinging, and the candidates, to date, have been happy to oblige.
There are many good people in Springfield — in the administration and all four caucuses — working hard to advance the cause of issues that matter to the people of Illinois. All of that gets lost in the weeks before a demoralizing election like this one, but hopefully, starting November 8, that kind of work will be able to continue, regardless of who wins the election.
Comment by Gus Frerotte's Clipboard Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 8:39 am
Whitney and Topinka, but not Blagojevich, will be on WTTW tonight. You had better believe that this is only going to improve Whitney’s numbers in Chicago.
Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 8:45 am
I am surprised how JBT’s numbers are down. How can anyone who is even moderately conservative send a vote to Rich Whitney? He may be a great guy and sincere in his beliefs, but his plans for the state are very liberal.
I can see how he would be a great choice for those who have fallen off the Blagojevich bandwagon, but even as moderate as JBT is, I don’t see too many Republicans who would ditch her for a Green liberal.
Comment by Fan of the Game Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 8:51 am
44-34-14-8, looks like NHL standings.
Comment by Snark Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 8:58 am
Gents –
If you haven’t figured it out, Topinka has been programmed not to win. The Combine wants the status quo ante, which generated big money for the leaders and, more important, control of the apparatus. Jack Ryan temporarily took control of the Party away from them; they allowed the Conservatives the opportunity to defecate on themselves with Alan Keyes. But, never again, Baby. It is why, as well, that Bill Nrady was induced to run as a counter-Conservative to derail Jim Oberweis. It is why Syverson and company will not permit direct election of the Republican District Committeemen. Control is more important than victory.
Comment by Truthful James Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 8:59 am
Whitney appears liberal but he supports concealed carry laws for hidden handguns. Very few Democrats in NE IL will vote for him on that issue alone.
Comment by Goodbye Napoleon Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 9:13 am
Actually, Whitney supports “open carry,” but that will never fly. Fiscally, however, he is very liberal.
Comment by Fan of the Game Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:01 am
wndycty said: “when you get past the allegations and look at what this administration has done and will do its a no-brainer, Rod is the better choice.”
Looking beyond the allegations, however, it appears that Blago believers and the Sun-Times group have been completely bedazzled by the Blago press machine.
The Sun-Times points to health care for kids, pre-school for kids and prescriptions for seniors as policy and programmatic areas that Blago has succeeded. However, All Kids is not funded for every child in Illinois for this FY and has no funding for next FY. Universal pre-school, again, is not fully funded and there are not enough slots to place every child who needs pre-school let alone the kids that want it. Finally, the I-Save RX program is a complete failure beyond the Blago press releases. Blago has scrambled to add states in order to spread the base and it still hasn’t seen much if any success.
If that is now our standard for success, great press pops but no substance, then the IL voters get what they deserve.
Comment by SangamoGoP Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:06 am
Whitney supports open carry but is willing to make an exception for Chicago and Cook County; so this should make just about everyone happy. Plus, the WTTW thing is Thursday, not tonight–sorry!
Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:07 am
Fan of the Game said, “Fiscally, however, he is very liberal.”
What? Whitney is for fiscal responsibility! Not only that, but he wants to end corporate welfare and give a leg up to small businesses (which generate most of the jobs in this state, by the way.) PLUS, just looking at the Green’s Party’s Ten Key Values, do you realize that one is DECENTRALIZATION? That appeals to conservatives!
Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:09 am
What this polls shows is that anyone can win. Voters will decide upon Blagojevich on election day. They will do this by either showing up and voting for a candidate, or not showing up. If turnout is low, JBT wins.
Chicago is the the center of the scandal world. Stroger, Giannoulais and Blagojevich? If this doesn’t depress voter turnout like a snowstorm in May, nothing will. As we already have seen, there are no rallies for these guys in south Chicagoland. If African American voters don’t show up for Blagojevich, JBT will win.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:09 am
It looks as if some of the good government libs, previously strong supporters of Blago, are switching over to Whitney because, despite heroic effots, they just can’t ignore the scandals any longer. Perhaps they think a vote for Whitney is a protest vote and Blago will remember it and become more, um, ethical in his second term.
He won’t. Given his penchant for puffery and self-delusion, a win of one vote or a million is the same for our Blago in his mind. He will see a win of any magnitude as a mandate for doing what he has been doing, including a huge expansion of illegal Democratic patronage, a continuation and vast expansion of “pay to play on steroids” and more fiscal mismanagement.
So the good government types who vote for Whitney won’t be fighting corruption, they’ll be aiding it. Whitney will be forgotten on November 8 and so will all his ideas, whatever their merit. So will the good guv types, for that matter. Blago will owe them nothing and will
ignore them in his second term.
Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:23 am
Whitney is riding the same wave as Obama. It is the Year of the “Anti-Candidate”.
The problem for all such politicians (and don’t let them fool you, they are politicians) is whether such a movement is sustainable over the course of years.
Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:34 am
Squideshi said, “What? Whitney is for fiscal responsibility!”
But fiscal responsibility does not a conservative make. From Whitney’s website:
** universal health care through a single-payer system and a commitment to full employment at a living wage.
** Last week, I was discussing Illinois politics with a couple of voters in Carbondale, when one of them, out of the blue, said, “I’m not going to vote for any candidate who does not promise to raise taxes…â€
I turned to them and said, “Well, you’ve got at least one person you can vote for.â€
**The Private Sector Is Not Designed to Create Full Employment or High Wages
**Passing a living wage law. A living wage law would require State government to pay its own employees a living wage, and require every firm that receives a benefit from the State  such as a contract, subsidy or tax exemption  to pay its employees a living wage… plus full health benefits…
** Increase the minimum wage to $8.30/hour
______________________________________________
Whitney is for true balanced budgets in which revenue meets expenses, but he proposes tax increases to do so. That, along with the items cited above, do not show a tendency toward decentralization nor do they exhibit much in the way of conservatism. They are liberal ideas.
Comment by Fan of the Game Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:54 am
Haha, BiPolarweis was a lunatic. He had a looney burd named Jack Roesser in his ear. He had no backbone and deserves no spot in politics. Enjoy his dairy empire, but shut up and go away.
Got Straws? ANyone who is still on the BiPolarweis(TM) bandwagon after his numerous gaffes needs their heads examined as well.
Comment by Wumpus Diva Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:58 am
Fan, try as I might I can’t get my mind around the idea that a truly balanced budget is a liberal, not a conservative, goal.
Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 12:06 pm
steve schnorf,
A balanced budget should be the goal whether conservative, liberal, or anything in between.
The key is how that budget will become balanced. The liberal will raise taxes, fees, etc. in order to get more revenue to meet spending. The conservative will cut expenses to fit the existing revenue. Whitney’s plan is the former.
Comment by Fan of the Game Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 1:17 pm
I believe a true conservative will call for revenues when spending is not cut, rather than tolerate an unbalanced budget.
Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 1:46 pm
I think at this point calling Whitney a “protest” candidate is getting to be a bit of misnomer. He may have taken 5% as a “protest” candidate, but you don’t poll at 14% (half a million plus people voting for you) unless people like your platform, ideas, and values.
The guy is running a fantastic campaign. I think that if we weren’t all such “political strategists,” the idea of a third party candidate making an impact on politics wouldn’t be such a controversial idea. It’s downright mundane in almost every other part of the world.
Comment by Diversity of Thought Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 3:03 pm
I for once would like to see the ACTUAL results of Blago’s Press Release programs.
Basic things like:
Are/or have the programs been fully funded?
If so, how? Especially since we still owe $3 billion to health care providers.
What are the funding mechanisms to keep these programs operating at proposed levels?
True program enrollment numbers. Not just in participants but in the case of AllKids how many eligible doctors will be accepting AllKids participants?
Why are you expanding your illegal I-Save RX program in light of forthcoming $4.00 prescriptions from major retail pharmacies?
Where did the $15 billion in bond debt incurred during your term go? What was it used for? We still have a budget deficit.
Honest answers for once would be appreciated.
Comment by Buck Flagojevich Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 4:19 pm
Buck,
Obviously the people who vote don’t care about that stuff. The poll numbers are very encouraging and regardless of all the spin by bloggers here it sure looks good for the governor.
Now, if we can just get veto proof majorities in the legislature we can really have some fun!
Who cares about health care providers, what are you , a doctor? I don’t see many of them moving to Kentucky or Missouri. No tag days will be necessary for those in the medical profession.
Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 4:59 pm
Bill,
Is that Rod’s position on these issues?
Or is it OK to ignore financial responsibilies such as paying bills?
BTW. Did you see “Nightline” last night?
Comment by Buck Flagojevich Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 5:44 pm
Bill,
Your lack of common sense continues to amaze me.
You are right in that a lot of people who vote don’t care about the mess this state is in. If people really cared about righting the ship your boy would be polling in the negatives.
Comment by Downstater Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 5:45 pm
All this tells me is we have another Nader situation. Those that vote green, vote Blago back in. I’m no great JBT fan, but I am willing to give her a chance. The green vote is a vote for Blago- check out the polls.
Comment by Shallow Pharnyx Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 7:19 pm
VOTE FOR KERMIT
Comment by Disgusted Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 7:33 pm
Are these Illinois voters? See/watch Bechtel Guy.
http://www.joe2006.com/FLblog_details.asp?id=17
Comment by Buck Flagojevich Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 7:43 pm
I’m glad all of the democrats on this blog are gloating at the poll numbers. The people that i have been talking to don’t care for some of JBT’s ideas, but they will vote for JBT when the time comes..most all agree that we need a change…I will predict that JBT will defeat rod this election.
Comment by ironman Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 8:26 pm
Bill: How about this - can’t our elected representatives do the RIGHT thing for a change? Is it impossible for them to be honest and take care of the state’s problems without screwing someone over? Even if the voters don’t care about paying the bills and fully funding a program before making promises you can’t keep, why can’t these elected representatives of the people take the high road for once? Is being honest and forthright so hard to do? We demand it of our children when they are little, to try and make them civilized human beings but then support the exact opposite in our elected officials. What bunch of gutless hypocrites the partisan voters have become.
Comment by Martha Mitchell Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 8:43 pm
Martha,
I have thought about your question a lot and I have come to the conclusion that, at this point in history, Illinois needs to step forward and advance a progressive agenda that will serve the people that need it the most, seniors, school children, the disadvantaged. We have a unique opportunity to become a national leader in health care programs for children and seniors, to take one issue.
Most elected officials have had to make compromises to get elected and most voters, it seems, are left with choosing the lesser of two (three?)evils.
Given that choice, voters should and, I believe will, pick the candidate who they feel best represents their position on issues, regardless of personality, TV ads, Blogs,innuendo of criminal activity, etc..
We have seen on the national level now, and on the state level in the past, what the republican agenda is… Tax cuts for the rich while squeezing the middle class, war, preaching against a woman’s right to choose using false morality publicly while engaging in illicit sexual behavior privately.
Don’t be naive enough to think that the only viable alternative to Blagojevich has made any less compromises to be elected than he has.
As far as funding is concerned, the governor claims that AllKids, etc. will be funded by natural revenue growth caused by job growth and a general improving of the economy. If that happens , great, if not then the legislature will have to come up with a revenue stream via taxes or some other source.
The important thing to me and, I think, most voters is to get the programs passed and up and working and worry about the funding on a year by year basis like the constitution calls for.
You may think that the particular actions of your particular boss “hurts” people and maybe it does.
You shouldn’t, however, blame the voters for voting to make state gov’t work for them and to make state workers their public servants instead of their bosses.
We have a chance to make our tax dollars an investment in OUR future and not just our state employees future.
I am proud of the voters in this state and I am sure that the will make the right choices.
Comment by Bill Wednesday, Oct 25, 06 @ 5:57 am
Bill: Thoughtful reponse and I’ve heard it before from others. But the rhetoric and the reality are very different. For instance, All Kids. A great idea, but there must be a continual positive funding stream and unfortunately, we can’t depend on any legislature to make it a priority in funding. Their priorities will be what their most prolific contributors tell them it is. The governor has said he will not raise taxes and yet you state that we will produce funding year by year for All Kids, even if it means raising taxes. What happens if this coming year is the one where he needs to raise taxes? Another campaign promise broken, just like the one about not balancing the budget on the backs of state employees. (And he has apologized the the legislature about the drunken sailors remark - how about apologizing to the people he expects to administer his plans, instead of depicting them as do-nothing political hires. Most people I know were hired because of experience and education and it shows in their work product.)
The ideas are good but the means of getting there are questionable and the use of these plans and their advertising to the voting public using taxpayers dollars, while plastering the governor’s face and name all over everything is very unsavory. If he wanted to impress people, he should have put out the advertising without a mention of himself. I, too, don’t want my elementary school-aged grandchildren bringing home campaign propaganda nor do their parents. With this governor, it’s not so much that the ideas are bad, but the self-aggandizing delivery of them that is abhorent.
Comment by Martha Mitchell Wednesday, Oct 25, 06 @ 7:10 am