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* I doubt it’ll happen, but considering how closely Team Rauner and the Tribune editorial board have tracked each other this year, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if this ended up being policy…
Illinois is about to wrap up its third month without a state budget. The impact of operating without a budget has been limited: The state is still paying its workforce and sending money to many vendors. But a number of social service agencies say they’re running into trouble.
Our suggestion to the governor: Set a deadline for an agreement on a budget and reform and declare that, after that date, your offer of higher taxes comes off the table.
If there’s no deal by a date certain — how about Nov. 1? — then set the rest of your agenda aside for another day, another year. But make it clear to Democrats that their failure to reach a deal with you by that date locks in how much money Illinois will have to spend.
That will not be easy. Illinois is addicted to spending beyond its means. Even without a budget, the state is spending at a higher rate than tax revenues would permit. Matching spending to current tax revenues would put an enormous squeeze on state operations and services. It would be painful. Rauner would have to cut the state payroll while trying to protect essential services. But something has to move Democratic leaders.
* The problem, of course, is that Rauner himself wasn’t able to come up with a balanced budget that didn’t rely on new revenues. He took the easy way out by doing things like banking billions in magical pension savings.
And if he did set this deadline, he’d have to actually make steep cuts to everything not currently covered by court decrees - and that pile is getting smaller almost by the day. No deal would pretty much guarantee no state university funding, for instance. Yes, he could also do some layoffs (notice how that’s the only cut pondered by the paper’s great minds), but many of those could wind up in the courts, too.
* Your thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:15 am
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Rauner would have to propose steep cuts and then get the Republicans in the General Assembly to vote for those steep cuts.
Comment by Guzzlepot Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:17 am
….and he’d also have to get some Democrats on board. He doesn’t have that much leverage here.
Comment by ihpsdm Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:19 am
Isn’t this exactly what the majority opened the door for him to do in May, and with his veto, he closed it? Now the Trib wants to go back to the GA’s budget and let the Gov wear the jacket for cuts? Seems like they could’ve saved time and agony by saying so around Memorial Day instead of now.
Comment by Reality Check Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:20 am
How does Team Bungle make and/or retract an offer when they are spending all the dough?
TB and the Tribbies (hey that sounds like a bad garage band) never seem to remember that in the unlikely event the GA were to vote FOR higher taxes they have little or nothing to say about actual spending.
Hence this is yet another foolish idea.
Comment by Anonin' Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:20 am
Just like poker, it’s time to call the bet. I say let him set a deadline.
I can see the headlines when he lays off 3000 state workers (and has to go to court to play defense), social service providers close shop en masse. Chicago schools miss their $500 million and layoff 3000-4000 teachers right after Christmas.
Can anyone else see the national news coming out of Illinois?
Sheeesh
Comment by anonymous Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:20 am
“But a number of social service agencies say they’re running into trouble.”
No, a number of social service agencies ARE running into trouble. But I will concede that the impact has been “limited” — so far it only affects people about whom the Tribune editorial board does not care.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:22 am
Two things: 1) call for the agreed bill process on Rauner’s agenda; 2) or, just send Rauner a shell bill(s) for his agenda. Let him fill in the blanks. That would result in an amendatory veto subject to a simple majority override. See how many votes he really has.
Comment by Beentheresenthat Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:22 am
For starters,
If the Governor, Bruce Rauner in this case, feels the need to allow the General Assembly to dictate to him, Bruce Rauner, his priorities (dollars and allocation of spending) for his Administration, due in large part that the governor is inept, and the Administration is unable or refuses to fund Rauner Agencies…
If those Raunerites want to admit that ineptness, I might agree with the Tribune…
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:23 am
I have to wonder if the Gov and the Trib are starting to recognize the pending defeat of the “Turnaround Agenda.” If things start blowing up more - which they are about to - people will start to recognize one of the main reasons the state doesn’t have a budget is Rauner’s insistence on gutting the power of unions. The Archbishop’s statements last week in clear support of unions may have helped serve as a wake-up call.
Comment by Chicago Guy Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:30 am
So the Governor would move from “I will not sign a tax increase unless Democrats vote to destroy unions” to I will not sign a tax increase.”
I don’t see that as substantially different.
This is the Trib admitting he won’t get the Turnaround agenda and trying get him off the hook for it while keeping the blame on the Democrats re: the budget fallout.
Comment by Century Club Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:31 am
Human service providers are not “running into trouble”, they are there now. And as a reminder to some, those providers are in many cases, doing what state govt. chose not to do and turned to the private sector.
The simple fact is providers have been laying off staff for over a month now with more coming this week and the coming weeks.
Two weeks ago, the only “Detox” center in the Springfield area (located in Jacksonville) closed and they are dropping contracts with DOC over payment issues. At least seven people in Jacksonville are now on the streets having lost their jobs.
Comment by Give Me A Break Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:32 am
What, exactly, is Madigan supposed to do here? Kidnap Dunkin’s dog? Put a horse head in his bed? Threaten to cut off his cable?
I was very confused by this. How, exactly, is Madigan supposed to compel his members to (in some cases) commit political suicide? And why would Madigan do something that would pretty much assure the lost of his “supermajority”? And that word, incidentally, does not mean what you think it means?
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:33 am
“Set the rest of your agenda aside for another day, another year.”
For once, I agree with the trib Ed board. Set the turnaround agenda aside for another year… How about 2019?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:33 am
As you say, it’s now 3 months, one quarter of FY16. A lot of State spending is proceeding at FY15 levels, based upon the higher income tax rate. Even if taxes were increased back to 5%, there would have to be big cuts.
No one’s talking numbers. Are they afraid or is it they haven’t run them?
Comment by Sir Reel Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:34 am
Why wait until November 1? The longer you wait, the steeper the cuts have to be.
Make it October 1st, so we can all get to work on the Rauner-McQueary budget on October 2nd.
Besides, if you are going to have to shut down all of those public universities, you don’t want to wait until the Holiday season to announce it.
Comment by Juvenal Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:38 am
The Tribbies arent so good on the math or the responsibilities of the gig.
How’s about a deadline on when the governor will explain the ROI on his alleged “budgetary and economic” reforms?
Not nonsensical, bong-hitting, word-salad analogies about a barrel of crude oil and a car.
But real-word projections with numbers, just like they do in business, as to how taking Action A will achieve Objective B.
What will be the return on this cost that is being willfully inflicted on the select group of hostages?
While he’s at it, the governor should explain why he selected social services and unis to be hostages, as opposed to K-12 and state employees.
What makes them so special, in his mind?
Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:41 am
Bruce,
Where is YOUR Constitutionally Mandated Balanced Budget?
If you have no interest in fulfilling the duties of this position, then kindly resign.
Regards,
Jack
Comment by Jack Stephens Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:42 am
You’re wrong, Juvenal. If we wait until Christmas to shut down the universities, the students will at least have the chance to get one semester finished before they have to transfer out of state.
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:42 am
Well, I suppose one question is, how much Rauner and the Dems can cobble together with loans and fund sweeps in addition to the income tax increase they both support. This could affect the size of the increase. Neither side has any appetite for taxing the wealthy more, despite a few feeble efforts by the Democrats. So we’re talking about a tax increase on a middle class whose income has been stagnant for many years, as we were told again recently in a flurry of press on the subject. We’re also talking about increasing the wealth gap in the state. The working poor can be sheltered a bit by the EITC, perhaps increasing it as part of the bipartisan tax increase package. But that costs money too, and, again neither party has shown much appetite for shifting the extra cost to the wealthy. And yet one of the only surefire ways of reducing the wealth gap is to tax the rich more. National Democrats seems to have accepted this to a far greater extent than our local, Illinois Democratic politicians.
Add Mayor Rahm’s Chicago property tax increase upcoming, and maybe citizens will actually start paying attention to govt fiscal issues. If they do, it’s not clear that either party will benefit.
Comment by Cassandra Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:43 am
My favorite part of that Trib op-ed is they still can’t openly state, that Rauner’s reforms include a strong anti-union-organizing demand.
The closest they can get is, “He wants to encourage employers to grow in Illinois by curbing some of the state-imposed costs of their operations.”
That’s some seriously vague syntax.
Comment by ZC Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:45 am
Schnorf, if you’re here today….
I was just wondering — we tax income where it’s earned, not where you live while you spend it, right? so if we taxed retirement income over, say, 75k, wouldn’t we be able to scoop up some of the pension dollars that those high-priced suburban school administrators take with them when they retire to points south?
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:46 am
What kind of refreshments are they serving during Tribune editorial board meetings? This sounds like they were intoxicated when they came up with this one.
Comment by Aldyth Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:51 am
So, how is all of this good for business? “Business”, big or small, likes consistency and dependability. I am not sure, but I think what we are seeing is antithetical to that concept. /s
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:55 am
This assumes that a GA majority wants to vote for tax hikes more than it wants to vote against Rauner’s anti-union fanfic.
I question the validity of that assumption.
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:56 am
“Listen up, Rep. Bradley, if you don’t vote to knee-cap your strongest allies, you won’t get to vote for a tax hike!”
“Where do I sign?”
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 10:57 am
=high-priced suburban school administrators take with them when they retire to points south?=
LOL! Just tax retirement income over $75k. Income is income. If you are focused on “high priced school administrators” you are going to be a bit disappointed by the returns.
BTW- You will get more money out of the millionaire’s tax. That one polled well, since our governor likes polling so much.
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:01 am
Rauner has already taken his support of tax increases off the table. He said if the dems wont support his agenda, they can use their supermajority to raise taxes and pass a budget. The dems are smart enuf not to pass anything wout a deal. Rauner could always pull the rug out. MOU, anyone?
Comment by Langhorne Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:01 am
I don’t think either side has any idea how to resolve the impasse at this point.
Further, they are burdened with their own extreme rhetoric.
Madigan seems especially struggling with how to handle things because of his long years in the political arena and Rauner’s problem is political niaveness.
Comment by Cassiopeia Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:03 am
@Soccermom -
I believe federal law requires 60 days notice for a mass lay-off, so I assume they would have to pull the trigger by october 31 at the latest to close down the universities at the end of the semester.
And no, under federal law you cannot tax folks for pension benefits earned while in Illinois after they leave Illinois.
Deferred compensation is a problem across the board for our tax base.
Comment by Juvenal Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:06 am
Tell it, Rich.
Rauner asked for the higher tax rate to expire.
He offered an unbalanced budget and — LEFT IT TO THE DEMOCRATS TO OFFER A TAX INCREASE.
Democrats passed a budget not dissimilar to what he offered, SAVE THE HYPOCRITICAL PENSION SAVINGS.
He vetoes a budget not dissimilar to his own and blames the Democrats.
HE STILL INSISTS the Democrats pass a tax increase.
Rauner has the establishment news media on his side. They are either blind or hypocrites too.
And the House and Senate GOP band played on…
Comment by Austin Blvd Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:07 am
@Soccermom10:46
No, income on non-residents can NOT be taxed. (California tried it and the federal courts shot it down.)
Comment by DuPage Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:09 am
Illinois state spending per capita is the same as most states. So assumed starting point to is not even correct by rauner.
Comment by Justme Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:16 am
I’m missing the Trib’s logic. What they are suggesting would make Illinois suffer greatly - and turn the tide against Rauner big time. I think the majority of the people would definitely say Rauner would then own those cuts.
Comment by Joe M Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:17 am
Why not repeal Blago’s initiatives and then direct criticism to his home in Colorado?
Comment by Keyser Soze Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:21 am
==Set a deadline for an agreement on a budget and reform and declare that, after that date, your offer of higher taxes comes off the table.==
What happens then? Do we magically have all the revenue we need? Something tells me they didn’t think this through completely.
Comment by AC Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:23 am
T’is cowardice to offer “higher taxes” but not specify a new rate and in what category. Give us a number Bruce and Trib! The Trib sounds bought and paid for…
Comment by Ben Franklin Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:24 am
=== I don’t think either side has any idea how to resolve the impasse at this point.===
Cass:
I think Madigan was quite clear to Rauner that he’s got to figure out how to get himself out of this mess. It’s not that Democrats won’t help him, its that they can’t until he comes up with an exit strategy.
Unfortunately, he keeps hamstringing himself by doing goofy stuff like releasing polling showing Illinois loves what he is doing.
Great for Rich, fine cover for his staff, but not getting you closer to an agreement.
When the city passes a tax hike in October and blames it on Rauner, saying they will be happy to roll back the property tax hike as soon as Rauner passes a budget that fully funds Chicago schools, all heck is gonna break loose.
Comment by Juvenal Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:28 am
The mess is too big and the gulf too wide…we need to play small ball. Give the governor a lump sum so he has spending authority and then start plugging the holes with supplemental budget bills, as was done to close the FY15 budget. Pass some reform bills (workers comp, tort reform, Cullerton’s property tax bill) and a few supplemental spending bills with fund sweeps, service taxes, and closed loopholes to generate revenue. Yeah, closing a $1.5 billion hole is a lot easier than 4 billion, and Rauner won’t get his “big win,” and Dem constituents won’t like the cuts, but doing nothing only makes things worse in the long run.
Comment by The Middle Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:28 am
Don’t take advice from a bankrupted news organization regarding budgeting, finance, or leadership.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:29 am
The Governor says he will make an undefined “offer” to raise needed revenue, but conditions making that offer on the General Assembly’s acceptance of another undefined, completely unrelated “offer,” which has not actually been made.
You guys see how there’s no way to move forward with that framework, right?
Comment by Emily Miller Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:30 am
Has anyone taken LGDP payments to court? Is this the only budget item that can possibly be cut? With no revenue increase,this is tho only significant item left on rauners hit list.
Comment by blue dog dem Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:30 am
I think the Trib should go back to Katrina McQueary’s proposal that we solve all our problems through a hurricane or other natural disaster. That makes about as much sense as this editorial.
Comment by Eugene Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:30 am
Dupage,
Non-Resident Illinois sourced income CAN be taxed by Illinois. That is why the Schedule NR exists.
Taxing retirement income at any level is not going to happen. The oldest baby boomers are 69 while the youngest are 51. That segment of the population holds quite a number of votes and anyone in the GA foolish enough to support a bill taxing retirement income will be gone by the next election.
Comment by ihpsdm Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:30 am
More threats, more hostage taking. Zero serious solutions.
Comment by Wensicia Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:31 am
===Give the governor a lump sum…===
That will never happen, ever.
No trust Rauner will spend where needed, and that Rauner will dry up funding that the legislature will have no say over.
The Speaker and President don’t trust Rauner, a man who says progress is happenin’ even though no one is meetin’
Lump sum? Nope.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:33 am
How about, “If you don’t pass a budget I like, I’ll hold my breath until I turn blue.” That would be just as effective. More likely, Rauner will force a strike on the theory that not paying employees at all for a month or so will right the financial ship.
The Trib really has lost it here. The problem, as Martire oft reminds us, is that Illinois has a tax system straight from the Dark Ages. They can’t fix anything until they fix that, and so refusing to deal with the revenue side until the expense side is decided is sheer foolishness.
Comment by Kids Being Kids Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:38 am
=== * The problem, of course, is that Rauner himself wasn’t able to come up with a balanced budget that didn’t rely on new revenues. ===
We have a winner! Rauner’s frat boys are probably grumbling now that their Tribune acolytes aren’t helping. Rauner knows he needs a tax increase.
For the sake of argument, let’s say he wants to adopt the Trib idea of withdrawing the offer of a tax increase. He can’t follow through on a bare bones budget anyway. He doesn’t have the votes. I doubt that he’d even have all the votes from his purchased caucuses. At this time, the Dems can’t even pass a budget balanced or unbalanced.
I don’t anticipate any movement until January. Then we get into another series of Dem budgets and Rauner total vetoes. Until these blind editorial writers start waking up to the consequences of Rauner’s union-busting crusade.
Comment by Norseman Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:38 am
The govenor’s p.r. position is contradictory and ludicrous.
He says he will “give” Democrats a tax increase (that they have not asked for) if they’ll bust the unions for him.
That implies that he believes a tax increase is unnecessary and that he can operate state government within existing revenues.
Well……… we’re waiting. Because the record deficits being rung up and the gutting of social services due to the governor’s strategery tell a different story.
Secondly, how is a “gift” of an unnecessary tax increase in exchange for votes on a political agenda not the height of quid pro quo corruption? Taxing everyone to buy votes in the GA?
That’s shaking ‘em up.
Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:40 am
I keep saying it. A four year tax increase that expires and is used only to pay off back bills is crucial.
Yes, I know, we had a four year temporary tax hike but it was merged int the GRF and not designated for back bills.
And yes, I am suspicious of my own proposal not because it lacks merit but because somehow the Governor and the GA will not honor this process and continue to expand programs and spend more money while the back bills still pile up.
But if my proposal would be honestly implemented it would help tremendously with the state budget and with the creditors.
And of course,it pleases neither the Raunerite types would want to strip the government or the liberal establishment that wants ever more progams and spending.
Comment by Fedralist Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:48 am
ihpsdm @ 11:30 am
==Dupage,
Non-Resident Illinois sourced income CAN be taxed by Illinois. That is why the Schedule NR exists. ==
And, because federal law prohibits states from taxing nonresidents on their pensions, the instructions to the Schedule NR tell nonresidents to report none of their pension income as Illinois sourced.
Comment by Anon. Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:51 am
But if we start taxing retirement income over 75k, can we then retrieve some of the pension dollars take with them when they move to Florida?
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:54 am
–Give the governor a lump sum.–
Where do they keep the Lump Sums? In a coffee can in the basement?
Under current law, judges’ orders and consent decrees, money is already going out much faster than it is coming in.
Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 11:57 am
=The Trib has been taken over by Donald Trump.=
I’m no fan of Trump, but based on the last debate, I believe Trump’s economic positions are considerably left of the Tribune.
Comment by Carhartt Representative Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 12:07 pm
Another foolish assertion that the democrats raison d’etre is purely to raise taxes.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 12:08 pm
Soccermom:
Definitely NO.
See Anon 11:51
Theonly magic money tree that hasn’t been fully explored is a Chicago Casino.
Two problems:
1) it doesn’t provide enough revenue soon enough
2) Rauner has hitched his turnaround agenda to that as well.
Which brings us full circle. Why, as Emily Miller points out, would Rauner hitch an unspecified promise to unspecified demands? Why would he hitch his Turnaround demands to a casino, which would actually reduce the need for the tax hike he says he despises so much? And why would he craft a list of Turnaround items that even a novice Springfield observer understands is a non-startin’, when pigs fly over the frozen tundra of Hades list?
You either have to conclude that Rauner is an idiot or he hopes to wreck state government.
I don’t think he is an idiot.
I think he is pursuing the same agenda that the Tea Party wing of the GOP is pursuing in D.C.
Comment by Juvenal Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 12:09 pm
I saw this on line:
Rauner hates Unions and Madigan
Madigan hates Unions and Rauner
Unions hate Madigan and Rauner
The courts will settle the issue and no one will abide by their decidion.
Comment by Ben Franklin Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 12:19 pm
This is the issue in a nutshell:
To paraphrase Rauner: Bust the unions and I’ll raise taxes.
To paraphrase Democrats: We don’t necessarily want to raise taxes if we don’t have to. Make cuts and we’ll see how much needs to be raised. Then we’ll talk. And at any rate, we’re not going to bust unions.
To paraphrase Republicans: Crickets. Whatever you want Bruce.
Comment by Austin Blvd Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 12:25 pm
In the end all Rauner wants to do is raise my taxes. I thought government was ripe with waste? And when is Rauner going to reveal all the corruption in Illinois government? I feel like Rauner sold us a bill of goods!
Comment by Track312 Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 12:27 pm
=== Illinois is addicted to spending beyond its means.===
This is a false notion. The State has the means to pay for the public goods and services that the People of Illinois expect the State to deliver. The State has simply decided not to raise the revenue required to pay for the services that the People of Illinois expect the State to deliver.
Comment by Anon Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 12:38 pm
It’s hard to imagine many votes for a tax increase before Dec 1 (filing deadline). A deadline earlier than Dec 1 would ensure failure because no one wants to encourage primary and general election challenges to their seat.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 12:39 pm
And when the Democrats call his bluff?
Comment by rural observer Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 12:47 pm
Juvenal — thanks, I didn’t read carefully.
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 12:49 pm
And Dec 1 is right before Xmas.
January, at the earliest. Maybe Feb.
Comment by Cassandra Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 12:53 pm
==But if we start taxing retirement income over 75k, can we then retrieve some of the pension dollars take with them when they move to Florida? ==
That sounds like something they would do in a dictatorship - control where people can live. Then what will we try to control next? In the U.S. we can live wherever we want to. I’m content to keep it that way.
Comment by Joe M Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 1:01 pm
Looks like an earlier comment about Team Bungle got excised. But it is still good to ask why anyone thinks Ds are ready to rush in to raise money someone else is spending? Same goes for building a casino in Chicago to pay for pension.
The deadline is silly. Almost makes the Katrina Doctrine look…. not really
Team Bungle and the Tribbies need to focus on their real problem. How fast can they make a U turn on the budget so they can start looking for candidates to run in primaries?
Comment by Anonin' Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 1:02 pm
Its so cute that the trib thinks Rauner is in a power position. Apparently they cant count votes any better than the superstars.
Comment by relocated Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 1:10 pm
I’m thinking the Trib is plowing a narrative pathway for massive layoff/cut justification. I think things are going to get all kind of ugly.
Comment by Honeybear Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 1:11 pm
Joe M - you are aware that Chicago police, fire and school employees have to live within the city? That elected officials (generally) have to live within their districts? That people from other countries are often not allowed to live in the United States without permission?
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 1:13 pm
How long will it be until the bond rating companies rate Illinois bonds as junk?
Illinois is becoming the laughing stock of the country. I keep seeing articles outside of the state telling readers how bad the situation has become.
Comment by Huh? Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 1:13 pm
Huh? 1:13 pm
The ratings agencies will keep doing that, but smart investors will keep on lending to Illinois. Because the reality is that government “junk” is way safer still than a lot of stuff that used to be labeled AAA (Wordslinger can jump in any time here).
That’s not to say there aren’t consequences, though. We have to pay more legally when we’re downgraded. And those investors still willing to lend us money, tend to want us to focus on lending them back, and want Illinois to skin and cut all its social services and any long-term productive investments (in education, pre-K, higher ed) they can’t themselves immediately reap.
There was an interesting story in the Trib not so long back about the investors who were still very much all interested in lending Chicago money, while also implicitly stating they wouldn’t mind if Chicago would underfund and strip down its public education system still further.
Comment by ZC Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 1:28 pm
It all seems hopeless to me. Seriously, how long can the State run without a budget being passed? Can the current situation continue thru next July 1st?
Comment by Esteban Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 1:50 pm
The problem will be that there are some institutional investors that can’t buy junk bonds.
Comment by Huh? Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 1:53 pm
Huh? 1:53
True. Which does drive up the state’s borrowing costs, no question.
Comment by ZC Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 2:02 pm
=== Can the current situation continue thru next July 1st? ===
Unfortunately, we may find out.
Comment by Norseman Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 2:02 pm
I assume Rauner’s plan is not to pass a budget for his entire time in office. The courts will continue to settle who gets paid.
Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 2:03 pm
– institutional investors–
Meh, Illinois bonds would sell in minutes. The junk bond market is huge.
The issue isn’t access to the markets, but the extra juice you have to pay and the commentary on fiscal management — not the economy — as compared to other states.
Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 2:19 pm
@ihpsdm11:30 I stand corrected, it is pensions, not income, that can not be taxed on residents of another state.
Comment by DuPage Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 2:52 pm
—The state is still paying its workforce and sending money to many vendors.
paying the workforce yes, the vendors … uh no they are not. The state was paying FY 2015 vendor bills but FY 2016 have not been started to be paid at least in CMS.
Comment by Allen D Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 2:55 pm
– supermajority. And that word doesn’t mean what you think it does.–
It also doesn’t exist.
Rich pointed out in his Crains column that the GA this year has failed to override the governor 60 times.
The only “win” was on the heroin veto, when GOP leaders asked the boss pretty-please not to use a suburban public health crisis to club Lou Lang.
Rich also pointed out a fiscal deal could be cut in a matter of days.
How many more layoffs, shutdowns and stiffed vendors will it take for the governor to understand there’s a difference between “want to” and “have to?”
Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 2:56 pm
It’s possible that once January rolls around, the GA and Rauner will be in the mood for major funding changes. But I doubt it. What would be considered major? Well, taxing retirement income. Taxing services-well, maybe a tiny few. Closing loopholes-ha. Has the GA ever closed a loophole? Any kind of tax on the wealthy.Nope, they’ll all be in mode cautious. Fund sweeps. Borrowing. No way Rauner goes along with a reinstatement of the 5 percent income tax He might as well hang out a sign saying Quinn was Right and I was Wrong. 4.75? 4.50?, Maybe, with wailing and gnashing of teeth. Retroactive? doubtful. Faced with the wrath of Chicagoans absorbing a property tax increase courtesy of Mayor Rahm, both parties will be looking for the least controversial option-a modest tax increase, temporary, not retroactive, plus aggressive fund sweeps and lots o’ borrowing.
Comment by Cassandra Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 3:02 pm
Don’t forget that when the Trib filed for bankruptcy their executives went to court so that they could still collect their bonuses.
Comment by Buzzie Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 3:15 pm
Arsenal said it clearly.
The Tribbies are delusional if they think simply handing the Dems a club and telling them “it’s okay with me if you beat yourself with it,” is Rauner’s route to a budget deal.
Comment by walker Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 4:03 pm
Is this like taking yourself hostage? Eg the sheriff in Blazing Saddles?
Comment by Ghost Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 4:26 pm
@soccermom, pensions CAN be taxed on Illinois pensioners who take residence in other states, provided that the SOURCE of the income is in Illinois. For example, if you have a trust registered in Illinois, the income from that trust must be paid to Illinois even if you’re a resident, of say Arizona. If your “place of work” is Illinois, you pay Illinois taxes no matter where you “reside”. The pensioners who would escape the Illinois tax would not be the Illinois government pensioners, it would only be those with 401Ks and pensions registered other than in Illinois.
A teacher making a fat pension from TRS or SURS would be taxed in Illinois if it passes a tax on pensions, even if they move to Florida.
Comment by Arizona Bob Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 4:45 pm
When the Tribune volunteers to give up it tax credits, then we can start to take their budget preaching a little more seriously.
Looks like even Rauner is too smart to follow their advice.
Comment by Juvenal Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 4:47 pm
I read all variety of possible things to do in comments to arrive at a solution with Gov Bruce.
Negotiating with self is what that is called. Dems and Unions at Gov. Bruce’s request are suppose to changes to their offers until they find one the makes Gov. Brucie feel good. That’s not negotiator nor democracy working between EQUALS.
Gov Bruce has NEVER demonstrated an alternative to his same old same old BS agenda. He has never ever shown how any part of the agenda actually solves the two primary problems identified by Moody’s. He had the chance to explain during regular session to explain to IL Citizen’s how his marvelous fantasy would actually solve problems. What happened? His staff didn’t even show up for the public committee discussions to present their economic analysis.
Ghost … the Blazing Saddles observation is appropriate.
Comment by IL17Progressive Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 4:48 pm
== But make it clear to Democrats that their failure to reach a deal with you by that date locks in how much money Illinois will have to spend. ==
Oh, those Tribbies and @chick have a way with words.
“But make it clear to their Governot that HIS failure to reach a deal with the GA by that date locks in how much money Illinois will have to spend and dramatically expedites IL towards destruction.”
There. Fixed it for ya.
Comment by sal-says Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 4:57 pm
Arizona Bob. You are wrong it is federal law that Illinois can not tax any income, including retirement income, if a person is a resident of another state, no matter if a person receives a pension from Illinois.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 5:13 pm
“The only magic money tree that hasn’t been fully explored is a Chicago casino.
Not so. Recreational marijuana would bring in $300 million per year.
Comment by Striketoo Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 5:14 pm
Ghost @ 4:26 - Brilliant.
Comment by horse w/ no name Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 5:17 pm
This whole idea is based on a remarkable naïve and frankly insulting notion that Democrats just NEED to raise taxes like a junkie needs heroin. We are just so addicted to taxing and spending that any threat to take it away and we will sell our children to pay for the next fix. It’s a childish approach that has yielded zero results for a reason.
Comment by horse w/ no name Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 5:19 pm
– His staff didn’t even show up for the pubic committee discussions to present their economic analysis.–
I imagine that is because no economic analysis exists. If there is one, let those superstars shine and show their work.
Remember all those “comprehensive and detailed plans” that were going to be unveiled during the campaign? They didn’t exist either.
Not a heavy-lifting crew, the superstars. The only justifications presented for the governor’s agenda so far have been vacuous and vapid slogans.
It’s not an economic or fiscal agenda, anyway. It’s a political power-play, and core state responsibilities, impacting real people, are being willfully sabotaged in the pursuit of it.
Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 5:32 pm
No one responded to my LGDF question, but my take is this….when Bruce cuts in half the return to cities,counties…. Do-do hits the fan in even his most loyal areas of the state. Cops laid off, fire fighters laid off. Snow removal cut back. …..Bruce won’t be able keep the troops in line.
Comment by Blue dog dem Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 6:31 pm
Anonymous 5:13 — that’s not correct.
http://www.revenue.state.il.us/taxforms/IncmCurrentYear/Individual/Schedule-NR-Instr.pdf
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 7:20 pm
Soccermom you are incorrect
I am an tax expert.
Pension income is taxed where it is receive …
not sourced.
A simple fact.
Sorry
Comment by gg Monday, Sep 21, 15 @ 7:36 pm
There are 2 state agencies that do duplicate work of their corresponding federal agencies. Closing these agencies would save money without the citizens being affected.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 5:25 pm