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* It’s still pretty darned early for this. Also, pay attention to the generic ballot numbers at the end…
U.S. Rep. Mike Bost, R-Murphysboro, is leading Democratic challenger C.J. Baricevic 51 to 35 percent, with 14 percent undecided, in a poll of 12th U.S. House District voters released Monday by Harper Polling, a GOP-leaning polling firm. […]
Harper’s poll showed that 24 percent of those surveyed strongly approved of Bost’s job performance, while another 30 percent somewhat approved. Sixteen percent somewhat disapproved, 11 percent strongly disapproved and 18 percent were not sure, according to a survey conducted Sept. 12-13 of 400 likely 12th District voters. […]
Bost is also viewed favorably by majorities of Republican voters (71 percent) and independents (53 percent), according to the survey from Harper Polling, which is based in Harrisburg, Pa.
In addition, 71 percent of voters surveyed said they believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, while another 21 percent said it was moving in the right course. Likely voters were almost evenly split between a generic Republican candidate (43 percent) and a Democratic candidate (41 percent), with 9 percent of voters responding they are not sure, according to the poll.
That district is a lot different in presidential years. Democrat Bill Enyart defeated Jason Plummer by 9 points in 2012.
This is not to say that Bost is in trouble, by any means. Underestimate that guy at your own peril - Enyart and the DCCC did and look where that got them last year.
I’m just saying that the generic ballot doesn’t match up that well with actual district performance.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 3:17 pm
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The Southern Illinoisan blasted both Bost and Shimkus in an editorial today - it says it all.
http://thesouthern.com/news/opinion/voice-of-the-southern/voice-of-the-southern-bost-shimkus-vote-for-a-shut
Comment by illini Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 3:25 pm
Considering Plummer with one goofy, immature thing after another… beating him by 9 points isn’t exactly something to write home about.
I never really got a sense that Enyart was a great candidate to begin with.
Comment by In the Middle Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 3:39 pm
Congress might be broken, and even destructive, but “It’s not our guy. It’s those others.” It will come down to turnout. The higher the better for Bost, my guess.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 3:39 pm
==- walker - Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 3:39 pm:==
LOL
Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 3:54 pm
The district has been turning Republican over the last decade or so. I don’t see anything that is dramatically turning it back the other way.
Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 3:56 pm
Quick follow-up.
Madison County used to hold great sway in the political arena. Frankly, that’s been divided by redistricting to the benefit of Rodney Davis and Mike Bost.
The personal issues for Democrat judges in the area haven’t helped the brand either.
Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 3:59 pm
= - illini - Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 3:25 pm: =
Whoa whoa whoa, the Southern beats up on Republicans now? I think you found a glitch in the matrix. EVERYONE LOOK FOR WHAT WAS CHANGED!
Comment by Dirty Red Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 4:03 pm
Dirty Red - yeah, I was more than a little surprised when I read it online this morning. They ( the editors ) did not have very kind words for our two downstate Congressmen did they?
Comment by illini Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 4:18 pm
==
Dirty Red - yeah, I was more than a little surprised when I read it online this morning. They ( the editors ) did not have very kind words for our two downstate Congressmen did they?==
I think you missed the snark in DR’s tone
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 4:22 pm
I probably did miss the snark - not one of my better days when it comes to detecting some subtleties.
Comment by illini Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 4:26 pm
Baricevic is from St. Clair County, no-where near Bost’s base. This is what it will take to defeat Bost. I don’t think it would hurt either if Forby or Bradley were in a race either. Help find those D’s.
With that being said. I don’t know what the heck is going on in Madison County after that 2014 election. Those numbers for Dems were brutal. I don’t know if it was the PQ effect, but if Bost wins again, I think it might be time for Dems to say goodbye to Madison County.
Comment by Almost the Weekend Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 4:27 pm
Almost the weekend, I think it was 55% Quinn. But the county is being politically bifurcated. You have the Left rallied by SIUE and the Right led by the Leadership council and the Chamber. Madison county will be one to watch.
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 4:45 pm
Only the western third of Madison County is in Illinois 12. Secondly it helps to go back and read the numbers for ‘14. Not a single Democratic statewide or federal candidate carried Illinois 12. Durbin lost Illinois 12 AND Madison County. Plummer picked the wrong year, Bost picked the right year. When you look at the numbers it’s unlikely that Jerry Costello would have won, although Bost wouldn’t have run against Costello. Democrqatic judicial candidates lost in St Clair and Madison Counties in ‘14. Unheard of! Presidential politics will drive turnout. If the roughly 80,000 Democrats who didn’t vote in ‘14 but did in ‘12 turn out in ‘16 Bost is in trouble, even with a youngster like CJ.
Comment by Saluki beancounter Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 5:02 pm
Look at the disparity between CJs fundraising and Bosts. Unless the DCCC gets on board with CJ with BIG bucks CJ has no chance. The GOP will spend whatever it takes to keep this seat.
CJ and the Dems also need to hope that his dad being on the ballot as judge does not hurt him considering one of the judges under him is now doing time in the federal pen.
Comment by Call Me Crazy Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 6:02 pm
Bost’s style of communication fits this district. I think he has a strong edge right now.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 6:42 pm
Regrettably, Bost by 12%.
Comment by blue dog dem Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 7:51 pm
My post disappeared. What was wrong with it, Rich?
Comment by dr. reason a. goodwin Wednesday, Sep 23, 15 @ 8:14 pm