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COGFA: State receipts down almost a billion dollars in first quarter

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Illinois

* From the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability…

Through the first quarter of the fiscal year, base receipts are down $987 million. The drop reflects comparatively lower income tax rates as well as the one-time nature of some pharmaceutical court settlements recovered by the Attorney General‘s Office last fiscal year.

Gross personal income taxes are down $699 million, $621 million net of refunds, or $829 million when the diversions to the education and human service funds are included. Gross corporate income taxes are behind last year’s receipting by $154 million, or $138 million net of refunds. Other sources are down $117 million, reflecting the aforementioned court settlement proceeds received last fiscal year in a similar amount. Public utility taxes are off $25 million, inheritance corporate franchise taxes $6 million, and vehicle use tax $1 million.

Overall transfers are up by $57 million, and federal sources, despite its weakness, are up $50 million for the quarter.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 11:33 am

Comments

Wow - tax rates were cut and we’re getting a lot less revenue. Who’d a thunk it?

Comment by Chicago Cynic Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 11:37 am
Or to put another way, as the Supremes said in the pension case, this is a crisis of our own making. Put tax rates back and this year we’d have been way closer to a balanced budget.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 11:39 am
No one even needs to be a math genius to see that this stand off is leading thenState to a disaster. Frankly- I think Mike M’s plan is simple- create a lot of havoc and in three years the State will be crying for his do nothing AG daughter to run for Governoer and Mike will finally retire

Comment by Sue Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 11:39 am
But decreased tax rates increase economic activity and raise revenues. That’s what Laffer taught me. Don’t tell me supply side economics is a myth. At least tell me Santa is real. /s

Lowering tax rates only increases revenues when the rates are onerously high. Our income taxes weren’t, so it’s not surprising this didn’t work.

Comment by AC Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 11:39 am
Ugh, this budget stuff is dreary. Readin’, rithmeticin’, analyzin’.

Let’s just engage in shallow talkin’ points about the vague promises of the governor’s political agenda.

That puts “fun” in planned dysfunction.

Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 11:43 am
In other words, revenues are down while continuing appropriations, court ordered spending and consent decreed spending is up.

The State was a financial mess when Rauner was hired and because of the intransigence of Madigan, it is worsening.

Comment by Georg Sande Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 11:44 am
Loving God we’re taking on water fast.

Comment by Honeybear Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 11:44 am
@George Sande

I thought general growth was supposed to take care of it. LOL

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 11:48 am
Sue, how can you seriously lay this at the feet of some great Madigan conspiracy? The governor is holding the budget hostage to an anti labor agenda that he wont even put into bill form. Madigan is guilty of many sins, but this mess is the governors.

Comment by relocated Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 11:52 am
Madigan’s intransigence? Are you people paying any attention? The GOVERNOR REFUSES TO DISCUSS THE BUDGET. That is the cause of the “havoc.” The governor is insisting on a “turnaround agenda” which does nothing to turn around the Illinois economy.

How many jobs will redistricting reform create? How many jobs will term limits create? How many jobs will unconstitutional pension reform create? How many jobs will destroying unions create? How many jobs will stripping workers rights create?

The current standoff is caused by Rauner. Period.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 11:54 am
Chicago Cynic- ” Are you people paying any attention?”

Most of us are. Some still have blinders on. Maybe this mess will never hit home to them and theirs. But if it does, or to someone they care about, maybe their rosy glasses will clear a bit.

Comment by Anon221 Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 12:09 pm
This is all part of the deconstruction of Illinois.

The problem with this type of scorched-earth political tactics is that everything is charcoal when trying to reconstruct.

Remember, this is what the taxpayers want…
No taxes, no universities, no 911, no basic life services for poor seniors/children/families, no mental health help for that same group when they break. /heavy snark

I find it astounding that so many educated people buy into this type of obstructionism. In a different realm this SOP would put you in time-out, the DOG HOUSE, penalty box, sideline, or jail.

MR. RAUNER — YOUR AGENCIES ARE FALLING APART BECAUSE YOU HAVEN’T FUNDED THEM! (btw, these are not Madigan’s or Cullerton’s agencies.)

I think YOU need to realize YOU need a tax increase and if YOU promise to act right, you might get the GA to allow you that.

Comment by cdog Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 12:22 pm
No surprises here. Supply Side arguments are especially suspect when taxes on additional income have multiple layers. If you look at the Illinois income tax rate cut in isolation, going from 5% to 3.75% is a 25% reduction. But add in 25% marginal Federal income tax (for a typical middle class worker) plus 7.65% Social Security and Medicare tax, and all you have done is reduced the total marginal rate being paid from 37.65% to 36.40%. This simply isn’t enough to meaningfully change incentives.

Comment by Andy S. Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 12:28 pm
Good Job Bruce!

Comment by Union Man Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 12:38 pm
I thought Rauner was going to improve operational inefficiencies and eliminate all the waste to fix the shortfall … /s

Comment by RNUG Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 12:43 pm
=The State was a financial mess when Rauner was hired and because of the intransigence of Madigan, it is worsening.=

LOL, yeah that is what it is.

Just one mean old little guy pickin’ on our Governor. Jeepers, I wish the Governor had some power so he could smite that mean old Mike Madigan. You know, like a veto, or something. /s

Comment by JS Mill Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 12:43 pm
But what about the Laffer Curve? This isn’t supposed to be happening. How can the “all stars” explain this away?

Comment by near springfield Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 12:46 pm
Union Man 12:38 pm

Heck of a job, Brucey?

Comment by olddog Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 1:25 pm
Property taxes, property taxes,property taxes. Does anyone live in an area were they ever go down? This is the tax that hurts the elderly,poor and middle class the most. This tax keeps going up, and the various teachers pensions are reaching unprecedently low levels.

Comment by Blue dog dem Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 1:41 pm
“The State was a financial mess when Rauner was hired and because of the intransigence of Madigan, it is worsening.”

That doesn’t even make sense. Madigan’s is the constant, things got worse after Rauner took the top executive spot.

Comment by Jo Dirt Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 1:46 pm
=Property taxes, property taxes,property taxes. Does anyone live in an area were they ever go down? This is the tax that hurts the elderly,poor and middle class the most. This tax keeps going up, and the various teachers pensions are reaching unprecedently low levels.=

Property taxes are not use to retire pension debt, only to cover the local, annual pension cost.

Property taxes have risen in direct relation to the state pushing costs and services on to local governments.

Comment by JS Mill Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 2:19 pm
FROM CNBC report today on California’ Roars Back:
“California was hit hardest by the recession, but the Golden State has come roaring back with a vengeance. A new tech boom, the housing recovery and a temporary tax increase approved by voters under Proposition 30 have led California out of a deficit and into a budget surplus. Unemployment has fallen from a peak of 12.4 percent to 6.1 p.”

Comment by Union Man Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 2:28 pm
==Property taxes, property taxes,property taxes. This is the tax that hurts the elderly,poor and middle class the most==
No. Sales taxes are the tax that hurts the poor the most.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Friday, Oct 2, 15 @ 4:13 pm