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The GOP framing

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Illinois

* Republican State Sen. Jason Barickman looks ahead to the GOP messaging in next year’s legislative elections…

“Do you want a tax increase — period — or do you want reforms to the governance of the state? I think that’s an easy question for voters to answer,” he said.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 12:53 pm

Comments

Do you want a tax increase period, or after the period, would you like your tax increase to come with anti-union, anti-middle class “reforms” that will result in lower wages in Illinois? Because we in the IL GOP are working hard to give you both.

I think that’s what he meant to say.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 12:56 pm
Senator,

You’ll be “Green” on the tax increase.

You’re welcome.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 12:57 pm
47th Ward: spot on

Comment by Capitol Fax Follower Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 12:57 pm
If there is no tax increase, then no budget, then no recognizable state government, then no state governance to reform.

Comment by Tom Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 12:58 pm
Until I see the numbers — any numbers — that show Rauner’s turnaround agenda will actually be short-term effective (and not 10-15 years effective), Barickman is full of it. Just like he was with the NRI stuff.

Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 12:58 pm
It would be a pity if we increased the number of uninformed voters.

Now lets go misinform some voters!

Comment by Lil Squeezy Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:00 pm
You bet I want a tax increase on the rich

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:08 pm
So based on this talk from him and Radogno it appears Republicans have deduced unionism abolition isnt coming so they’re skipping straight to the tax increase blaming before it happens and before any budget is passed? Swell.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:14 pm
Do you just want to pay higher taxes? Or do you want lower wages to go with those higher taxes? Vote Republican!

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:14 pm
What I want is a functioning state government! NOT hostage taking and hostage executing when your so called “reforms” aren’t swallowed whole. Quit doubling down! What is wrong with you people?

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:15 pm
From the article:
“State Sen. Jason Barickman has a simple response to constituents who are frustrated by Illinois’ failure to pass a new budget: I know your pain.”

Whose pain are you privy to, Senator? Whose pain do you identify with? Some of your constituents passed the point of “pain” months ago.

Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:16 pm
I suspect many of you are overestimating IL voters.

Brickman is right and the GOP has a good chance of pulling it off.

“We just want a few reforms.” I suspect a lot of voters will want “reforms” without giving the details much thought.

Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:16 pm
A “tax increase period” sounds like taxes will be higher 7 days out of every 28, and for the three days prior to the period’s beginning, everyone will be cranky and out of sorts every month.

Comment by Educated in the Suburbs Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:17 pm
Since it is Senator Barickman asking the questions and I assume the answers he wants to all of his questions would be consistent with those Governor Rauner would want to see, my answer to: Do you want a tax increase? Yes period. Do you want reforms to the governance of the state? No period.

My answer to the question do I like the idea of paying more taxes? No I don’t like it. My answer to the question is Illinois is governance in need of reform is yes, but not reformed the way Senator Barickman wants to do it or Governor Rauner wants to do it.

Comment by Rod Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:17 pm
One more reminder — a high number of voters think we can balance the budget with a few painless cuts of political hacks.

When it comes to budget issues, many voters have an unrealistic perspective.

Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:18 pm
The question of tax increases is “when” not “if”. He’s going to be sad about holding the budget hostage when he realizes that his (and many of his GOP colleagues’) vote to increase taxes is much closer to his re-election bid than it would have been otherwise. The longer this impasse protracts, the more Rauner will need the tax $, and that greater need may just equal a greater demand for GOP votes on the tax increase.

Comment by out of touch Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:18 pm
The messaging is going to be Democrat = Madigan. It hasn’t worked well with mail in individual districts before, but that might be different with a statewide TV campaign

Comment by 29th Warder Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:20 pm
I guess conceding you are voting for, possibly, the largest tax increase in Illinois history will be salvaged by…

… the attempting to dismantle unions thru angling for ending prevailing wage and eliminating collective bargaining?

What is the positive for the voter?

“I voted to raise your taxes, lower services, and I’m trying and trying to make sure unions are eliminated in Illinois. All unions.”

Again, at the door, with the lit in hand, what are the positives?

If the Social Service providers and Advocates, Unions, and Democrats can’t slam dunk this in 2016 just through the damage done to Social Service groups and Rauner’s own PowerPoint slides.

But, they all need to work together. Huge ask, especially since guys like Ken Dunkin will be running under the guise of IllinoisGO…

But, if the tweet makes Sen. Barickman feel better, then it does, I guess.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:22 pm
Jason,

Illinois citizen here…..no problem with a tax increase. Reforms are good too. What are proposing? Be specific.

Thanx,
Jack

Comment by Jack Stephens Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:22 pm
Um, that message suggests that the question of whether to raise more revenue for the state will not have been settled by the time of the next general election - nearly halfway into the NEXT fiscal year.

Are the Republicans seriously considering a strategy that contemplates continuing on this current trajectory - with no additional revenue - until at least halfway through FY 2017?

Comment by Louis Capricious Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:25 pm
Oh, and Jase……

Most Illinois Citizens support draconian cuts in Wealthy Welfare according to the poll last November. The only poll that really matters.

Toddles,
Jack

Comment by Jack Stephens Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:25 pm
29th - that’s what I’ve been saying since Rauner took office.

“It didn’t work before!”

So?! It was also just quips and Cap Fax fodder before. It was hard to take the old ILGOP seriously when they were operating in NEGATIVE revenue figures.

Since someone else used a sports analogy in another post, here’s one: the Red Sox couldn’t beat the Yankees in the playoffs. Then came 2004 and they came back to conquer the mountain.

These comments are eerily similar to what everyone on this site was saying last year around this time. And then Governor Rauner was elected.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:26 pm
Can Barickman (or anyone in the yellow army) produce ONE piece of reform legislation that will result in 4 Billion in savings…eliminating the need for a tax increase?

Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:28 pm
@- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:26 pm: “These comments are eerily similar to what everyone on this site was saying last year around this time. And then Governor Rauner was elected.”

Yes, but had the Gov run on how he’s been managing the state thus far, he would have lost by a country mile. All of this nonsense was presented after he took the oath. The destroying unions, runaground ™ agenda, no-discussion budget etc.

Don’t leave that part out in your ‘recollection’.

Comment by How Ironic Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:28 pm
Jack - just curious, but why on Earth wasn’t the “millionaire’s tax” referendum BINDING?!

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:28 pm
I like Jason, most of us tend to like our local legislators it is the “others” we don’t like. NRI was embarrassing though.

This message went out to those on his email list and it is low brow stuff, typical for many pols.

I asked him recently if he knew of any examples where economic growth was spurred when incomes were reduced and unemployment increased. I have not heard back yet. Not holding my breath.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:33 pm
I want Rauner to resign. It’s clear he has no idea how to govern.

Comment by Cheryl44 Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:42 pm
With our reversion to a lower state tax rate why are state tax collections down? Statewide unemployment is higher in 2015 than 2014. Will some Laffer/Kemp supply sider explain why this is occurring. Better yet, why are Dems not pointing out that is happening.

Comment by lib dem67 Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:44 pm
@lib:

But Bruce is spending millions to convince me that lower wages are a good thing for me!

Snark/off

Comment by Jack Stephens Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:47 pm
Nip this nonsense in the bud. Why doesn’t someone very publicly challenge Barickman, Rauner, any GOP with the following: “OK, assume we adopt each and every plank of your turnaround agenda, Governor do your constitutionally required job and present a budget, have it balanced, and please show your math,”

Comment by Schwarber's Ball Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:47 pm
Cynical? Yes. Disingenuous? You bet. Did it work last fall? Absolutely.

Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:50 pm
Wow, calling Democrats the tax hike party! How innovative!

== the Red Sox couldn’t beat the Yankees in the playoffs. Then came 2004 and they came back to conquer the mountain.==

Yeah, ’cause they did something different than they’d been doing before.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:54 pm
Which was what, Arsenal?! They added Curt Schilling, traded Nomah and replaced Grady Little with Tito Francona. They changed it up and gave themselves more firepower. Same with this. Before now, the “Fire Madigan!” slogans were, well, just slogans. HRO staff didn’t have the money behind the efforts to make them stick. Now it’s a different time and story.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 1:57 pm
Barickman is exactly right.

Comment by Georg Sande Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 2:04 pm
===“We just want a few reforms.” I suspect a lot of voters will want “reforms” without giving the details much thought.===

I would gladly accept human decency in the absence of “reforms.”

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 2:13 pm
Gee Barickman, isn’t your purchaser advocating both? Explain that message to your voters.

I’ll let Munger tout some of the Dem retort that will be their message.

- More than 25,000 people with developmental or intellectual disabilities have lost access to services they rely on.
- Counties struggled to keep 911 Emergency call centers operating in the absence of funding.
- More than 130,000 college students have had their grant funding cut off.
- Agencies providing shelter for domestic violence victims have shut their doors.

I’ll add another couple.

- Your city services had to be cut back because of Rauner’s impasse forcing higher unemployment or higher taxes.
- You have to pay your bills, but Rauner’s government operates with IOUs.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 2:17 pm
What Democrats are passing a tax increase?

Comment by DuPage Bard Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 2:24 pm
Barickman seems to have missed the first few lessons on the fiscal situation in Illinois. I don’t think “no tax increase” is one of the options.

Remember the talking point, we are severely over-taxed with the income tax in Illinois. How can we even dream of raising taxes to work on our $9B deficit!!! /s

In a somewhat regional geographic order, from NW to SE, single filer status at a somewhat decent level of income.

NE — 6.86% over $30K income
KS — 4.6% over $15K
MN — 7.05% over $25K (and higher)
IA — 6.8% over $30K (and higher)
MO — 6% over $9K
WI — 6.27% over $22K (and higher)
IL — 3.75%
KY — 5.8% over $8K (and higher)
MI — 4.25%
IN — 3.3%
TN — 6%

We are beat by one state. If you make over $30K per year, Illinois is a tough place to live and pay income taxes. /s

http://taxfoundation.org/article/state-individual-income-tax-rates-and-brackets-2015

Comment by cdog Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 2:58 pm
If they can continue to keep the collective bargaining out of the conversation, I think it’s a winning message. I’ve started noticing articles and editorials that mention “reforms” both specific and general, and they rarely mention the collective bargaining piece.

Comment by Earnest Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 3:10 pm
It would seem the Democrats could begin messaging a general opposition to any additional taxes. The Governor asked for these rates, and they expect him to propose a balanced budget. At the point where the governor has to explain why he needs additional taxes, they should oppose them tooth and nail unless he gives them something in return.

Comment by Dilemma Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 3:14 pm
“You’ve sacrificed sure footing for a killing stroke.”

- Ra’s al Ghul

Comment by Juvenal Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 3:23 pm
note - TN 6% tax on interest and div only

Comment by cdog Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 3:31 pm
@cdog. Not exactly beat by IN, since Indiana counties levy income taxes in addition to the state income tax. Since there are no county income taxes in IL, the total state + local income tax is higher in IN than IL (with the exception of a few counties where it is very close). On average, income tax is considerably higher in IN. Bottom line: IL has the lowest income tax in our region. See here for details: http://www.in.gov/dor/reference/files/dn01.pdf

Comment by X-prof Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 3:35 pm
Republicans still think the budget can be balance by stopping waste and abuses.

Comment by Liberty Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 3:57 pm
cdog/ X-prof-
You might want to take a look at a bigger part of the picture.
Illinois collected more per capita than surrounding states and was #14 nationwide for FY13. The state income tax reversion to 3.75% since doesn’t look to materially affect the rankings.

http://taxfoundation.org/blog/how-much-does-your-state-collect-taxes-capita?

Comment by The Whole Truth Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 4:14 pm
TWT
So we need to enact TA Agenda items that have no real effect on cash flow (or any real effects on anything for many years), not raise taxes, and then default?

oh, I guess that’s an option. I personally thinks that not a good one.

Comment by cdog Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 4:22 pm
seems a bit cowardly to say “reforms” instead of saying eliminating roghts to negotiate salary, medical, hours and pension benefits.

if you are aftaid to say what the reforms actually are then you know deep down you dont have support; otherwise why try to trick people with inaccurate labels…

Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 4:32 pm
Let’s not confuse political messaging with fact-based reality.

This messaging could work, to the extent we lack understanding of the current situation, how state government works, and accurate financial forecasts. Winning political contest is almost always more about image and emotional connection, than about reason.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 5:37 pm
walker, I understand your point, but the problem for the GOP this time is that their anti-tax message is going to get a little complicated when a lot of them vote for it and Rauner signs it. Of course they’ll say it could have been worse without whatever reform is done.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 6:59 pm
Sorry TWT, it appears that you’re the one missing the big picture. We’re not claiming that Illinois is a low-tax state overall, we’re saying that the Illinois income tax is exceptionally low. That means we depend proportionally more on regressive sales and property taxes. The net effect is that we are a high-tax state for middle and low income earners, but an exceptionally low-tax state for the very wealthy.

Comment by X-prof Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 8:30 pm
Norseman: Agree it will become more difficult for GOPers who vote for a tax increase, but they’ll stick with the “It’s all the Democrats’ fault.”

Think they’re better off after voting for the increase, than if the government is still obviously failing next cycle. It might take a while, but the Governor owning it across the board will eventually come.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 8:35 pm
… The other effect is that the state is unable to meet its fiscal responsibilities, no matter whether you use the governor’s or the GA’s spending plan.

Comment by X-prof Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 8:37 pm
X-prof-
How is making Illinois an even higher taxed state than it already is going to help? We pay more per capita in individual income taxes than surrounding states….$1202 per capita vs. Indiana at $722 per capita according to the Census Bureau.
We could realize $1.2B in savings for state salaries if we matched Indiana’s per capita expenditure for the same line item.
Another $1B or so could be saved taxpayers if we matched state/local government administration per capita costs to those of Indiana.
Merely raising taxes won’t solve our problems….it will only make them worse without spending curbs and a way to increase our workforce. See the BLS charts linked above. There simply aren’t enough of the “very wealthy” to make up what is needed.
A budget shortfall of $4B would require over $300 from every man, woman, and child in the state…a good deal more than that per capita if you consider only the (decreasing) number in the work force. Before we’re asked for that, there needs to be evidence something will change for the better, not a guarantee of the status quo.
The Census data can be found at:

http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml

Look for tables LGF001 or SLF001 and see for yourself…a little math is required to get the per capita numbers, but it’s worth the trouble. Look at any state you like…

Comment by The Whole Truth Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 9:21 pm
Perhaps a better big picture snapshot can be made comparing State/Local Revenue vs. State/Local Expenditures.
According to the Census Bureau link above, Illinois expended over $800 per capita more than it took in as revenue. Indiana spent $189 per capita less than it took in, Iowa was about even, and Missouri spent $278 per capita more than it took in. Once you consider the $100B Illinois pension debt due over the next 30 years, you have another $3B+ per year to account for somehow. A $4B budget shortfall and another $3B per year for pensions figures to $542 additional for every person in the state just to get even. Again, when you consider the workforce as the ones paying the taxes, that per capita figure is even higher. Before we start coughing that up, there has to be some changes in how we do business in the state.

Comment by The Whole Truth Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 9:33 pm