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New poll has “dead heat” in guv’s race

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Copley poll: 44-40-7

Sorry. I was out of the office and couldn’t link to the story.

… 9 percent remain undecided.

The gap between Blagojevich and Topinka is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. Other recent polls have indicated a much wider margin in favor of Blagojevich.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the poll of 625 likely voters Monday and Tuesday, Oct. 30-31.

The poll also shows that large numbers of votes still have unfavorable opinions of both Topinka and Blagojevich, but recent stories about federal investigations into corruption in state government are taking a toll on Blagojevich’s support.

These are the newest numbers we have. The Tribune poll (44-29-13) was taken Oct. 27-29. The Daily Herald poll (48-32-12) was taken Oct. 16-22.

We can pretty much bet that Blagojevich is stalled in the mid-40s, where he’s been for months. The real question has been for weeks whether voters would actually vote for a third party candidate or whether they were just temporarily parked there instead of sitting in the undecided column.

Also, there are still quite a few undecideds in this poll. Hopefully, Copley will tell us who those people are - since that would seem to be the most important part of this story.

[Let’s close comments on this. Go here for more discussion on Copley’s poll.]

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:11 pm

Comments

What is the deal with these up and down polls?! This is by far the weirdest election cycle I have ever seen. And not only because I keep getting Nieuked…

Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:19 pm
Whitney supporters pulling away to rid the state of Blagojevich, even if they aren’t thrilled with Topinka? If these numbers are right, that’s what it looks like.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:20 pm
This is a dead heat. The gap falls within the margin of error.

Comment by ChiCountryGuy Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:21 pm
Don’t stop believin’… Hold on to that feelayeeang. Street light people ahohahehah…

Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:23 pm
Rich you and these polls one more and I’m voting for Nieuked

Comment by DOWNSTATE Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:30 pm
Dewey, all the way, it’s a lock, I tells ya, Trib’s never wrong.

Comment by Gregor Samsa Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:36 pm
Cubs win…cubs win…oh wrong fantasy.

Comment by Siyotanka Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:37 pm
Rich - Is this on the race for Treasurer???? Cuz I ain’t buying it for Gov.

Comment by Hold On Here... Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:38 pm
It looks to me like a lot of people are coming to their senses and realize that the state is headed in the wrong direction and since realistically Whitney doesn’t have a chance, voting for Topinka is the only option to keep the ship afloat. I think also a lot of people are turned off by this governor’s immaturity and all the corruption that has happened since he took office.

Comment by Downstater Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:41 pm
Hold on Here has a point. I hope Rich isn’t trying to get hopes up on the gov’s race. Either way, those are better numbers than I have seen in the gov or treas races. So I am happier than I was on monday!

Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:43 pm
Looks like Judy HAS BEEN THINKING! Time to move out your belongings Rod from the mansion..oh wait..he never moved in!

Comment by Illinois is #1 Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:44 pm
Ricardo, who is this for, which race? McSweeney and the CD8, Gov? Whom!

Comment by Wumpus the Free Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:47 pm
“I refuse to believe those numbers; the poll that matters most is what the ppl. do on election day.”

Remind you folks of the sentiments of those who comment when we’ve seen poll after poll with the Governor leading?

Comment by Skarfeld Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:52 pm
44-40-7? What race?

Comment by (618) Democrat Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:52 pm
This is just what Rod needs, something to fire the Dems. in Cook and make sure of a huge turn out. Sorry JBT fans, you may now be dealing with a motivated machine.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:55 pm
Nevermind.

Comment by (618) Democrat Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:57 pm
This is also the combination to the Rezko safe containing all the $$$ he has made on his deals!!!

Comment by He Makes Ryan look like a saint Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:57 pm
The machine votes are always there. This changes nothing for the machine. If anything, it would be the non-machine votes that this poll brings out on election day. Please….

Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:58 pm
My man Tony Peraica still leading!!! Take that, Cook County Democratic Politburo!! And you too, Saint Obama!!!

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 1:59 pm
Blagojevich, Topinka in dead heat, new Copley poll shows
Last Updated 11/1/2006 12:55:59 PM

The campaign for Illinois governor is a horse race after all, a new Copley News Service poll shows.

The poll gives Gov. Rod Blagojevich only a 44 percent to 40 percent lead over his Republican opponent, state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka with less than a week remaining before the election.

Green Party candidate Rich Whitney has the support of 7 percent of likely voters, according to the poll. Another 9 percent remain undecided.

The gap between Blagojevich and Topinka is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. Other recent polls have indicated a much wider margin in favor of Blagojevich.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the poll of 625 likely voters Monday and Tuesday, Oct. 30-31.

The poll also shows that large numbers of votes still have unfavorable opinions of both Topinka and Blagojevich, but recent stories about federal investigations into corruption in state government are taking a toll on Blagojevich’s support.

For the full story, as well as poll results for the other statewide races Nov. 7, read Thursday’s State Journal-Register.

Comment by Hold On Here... Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:00 pm
I read it that the blago corruption backlash is finally registering in these poll numbers. With a week to go the Topinka #s should cross over further and further in the lead. This shift seems to be predictive of a surprising come from behind victory for Topinka and the citizens of Illinois !!

Comment by Citizen A Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:04 pm
Zogby has it at 6, copley at 4….Nov 7th could be more interesting then we thought.

Comment by scoot Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:06 pm
Holy Cow!

Comment by Harry Carey Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:06 pm
This is VERY INTERESTING! It would appear that the voters were paying attention to the Levine plea agreement.

As for the concerns of Anon 1:55 regarding motivating Democrats for Gov. Sleazy, those concerns are off base. Why bust your butt for a guy who has done nothing for you or for your organization?

Comment by fedup dem Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:08 pm
Organizational psychologists have studied the time it takes for information from the source to get down to the membership at a week to 30 days. Seems accurate in this case - the impact of the corruption indictments and guilty pleas and denials is right on time. Go JBT !!

Comment by Citizen A Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:11 pm
Did the John Kerry comment yesterday cause fear amongst the voters? Will it swing Republicans back to their own party?

Comment by leigh Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:13 pm
Ohhhh, maybe we will have a race now. FYI for the media folks I know I’ve read that the guv is keeping a low profile, but for a few days, there has been an elctronic message board sign outside of a union/training facility, just south of I-80, just east of Wolf road, can be seen from I-80, he is supposed to be there at about 5:30 p.m. on Nov. 2 to meet the community.

Comment by Concerned Voter Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:16 pm
The Mason-Dixon/Copley poll was always the one I most closely watched for in statewide races, as it has a good history of most closely matching up with the final result. Also, in the last week of a campaign, undecideds tend to break about 2-1 for the perceived challenger. That being the case, the outcome in this race would be Blago 46, Topinka 45, and Whitney 9. If Judy makes a solid case to Whitney people, she can pull this thing out.

Comment by charlie johnston Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:18 pm
The wacky polling we’ve seen the last 10 days for this race and others I believe is indicitive of changing nature of voters opinions. I believe that people do change their minds based on breaking news and the lastest tv ads.

There is a reason the Blago people have been pouring on the TV ads, they probably predicted a late surge of undecideds coming home to her. Even his win over Jim Ryan was only 53 - 46, about 250,000 votes.

I’m sure there won’t be enough people who feel good about Judy to actually make it that close, but it would be fun to watch.

Comment by Goodbye Napoleon Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:20 pm
This just in…Milorad saw these poll results and one of his hairs actually got out of place. Not to worry one of his faithful brush handlers hurried in and righted the stray hair. News at 9:00.

Comment by Poor Milorad Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:33 pm
just what we need another nut like the one we have living in the white house. This, Republican voting for rod. no more nutie republicans for me.

Comment by quincy Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:35 pm
Polls are no where near as accurate as people think. Don’t get fooled by the 4% margin of error. The key to good polling data is an accurate cross section of voters. All the key information is in the cross tabs.

Illinois has very segmented communities. Roseland will be 95% Dem and Barrington Hills will be 95% Rep. As the polls reflect the relative percentage of those communities, the data will be accurate.

The dueling Peraica polls are a classic illustration of polling problems.

My point is that we need to see some crosstabs before we celebrate. Did the Rezko indictment take 2 weeks to register?

Ashur Odishoo
Candidate
State Representative 11th District
www.voteodishoo.com

Comment by Ashur Odishoo Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:41 pm
“If Judy makes a solid case to Whitney people, she can pull this thing out.”

So far she hasn’t done it. I’m still with the green guy.

Comment by anon Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:44 pm
Governor Topinka, Governor Judy, Governor Judy Baar Topinka !!! Yep, sounds pretty darn good.

Comment by Citizen A Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:44 pm
CJ, dont you have a campaign to run?

Comment by Robbie Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:45 pm
by election day, it will be a toss-up.
by election night, the counting may be something very different.
at times like this it is best for the judys or the tonys of the world to win by six or seven points.
one or two point victories for candidates such as them are, frankly, too shaky.

Comment by chris robling Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:47 pm
Looks like a reliable poll.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:49 pm
Concerned voter - He will be late!

Comment by Little Egypt Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:52 pm
Like you said, Rich, this thing will be closer than people have been thinking.

Comment by Sister Mary Elephant Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:54 pm
“Blagojevich, Topinka in dead heat”

All of you conservatives who aren’t particularly thrilled with JBT’s moderate stances on some issues, please be sure to vote ANYWAYS. Otherwise, your state is doomed. Rod is running it into the ground, he fights with Daley, he fights with his own father-in-law, he accuses people of sexism after he’s completely carpet-bombed a woman with negative ads designed to try to make her come off as some type of wretched harridan as opposed to the experienced and capable state treasurer that she’s been THREE TIMES already, and his own party’s Attorney General is ticked off at him big time.

I’m sorry that some of you can’t stand the thought of JBT being a social moderate (oh my God, some gay guys might go berserk and come over to redecorate your houses! arghhh!), but the so-called Big Tent had better remain upright on Election Day.

Rod is going down. You will help.

Comment by Angie Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 2:55 pm
Wow. If this Topinca momentum is real, the candidates’ daily tracing polls will be showing it also. No wonder Blago is all over the place with old and new ads in these final days. I wonder if Judy has enough money left to stay on the air in the final days.

Comment by BigBob Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:02 pm
This poll looks like a bunch of BS to me. What has Topinka done to FINALLY put her across the 40% threshold? Also, what has made Whitney drop so precipitously according to this poll (there are about a half dozen+ that put him in double digits)???

Seems to me that this is something only to give JBT supporters false hope & also an attempt to try & dissuade people from voting for Whitney, to keep him from gtting the 5% he needs to establish the Greens statewide.

Comment by E-G Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:05 pm
Hasn’t JBT been saving her pennies until she is w/in striking distance? But with the Flanders Boys (Rod and Todd) willing to say anything, even lie through their teeth to win, can the GOP mamage to win.

Comment by Wumpus the Free Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:06 pm
This Whitney GOPer is sticking with “ABJ” (anybody but Judy). Judy getting elected would put the final nail in the coffin of the Illinois GOP with her “leadership” in raising taxes and her “anti-life” positions.

Giving the Greens a regular spot on the ballot will siphon off about 5 to 10% of the Dem lefties every election, and give a GOP purged of the combine a shot at rebuilding.

Comment by PalosParkBob Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:07 pm
The moving poll numbers make a lot of sense to me. I can’t decide who to vote for and will probably decide in the booth. Whitney deserves a shot at being governor but he doesn’t stand a chance, of course. The other 2 should be put in timeout until next year. I wouldn’t hire either one of them to take out my garbage. But one of them will win, and Blago really doesn’t deserve it.

What to do, what to do…

Comment by Lefty Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:08 pm
good point PalosParkBob. Keeping the Greens on the ballot (assuming Whitney gets 5%+ of the vote) helps the GOP long-term.

This poll reminds me of the Post-Dispatch (I think it was theirs) poll before 2002 that had JJim Ryan/Blago in a dead heat.

Comment by FireRonGuenther Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:11 pm
“chris robling” don’t be ridiculous.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:16 pm
I believe this is a CREDIBLE poll — in other words, that it was conducted well and is correct in its count.

I don’t, however, believe it is accurate. Remember, with a 4% MOE, it’s just as possible it’s 48-36 as it is that it’s a dead heat, and 48-36 is very close to what all the other polls say. So I’m not extremely encouraged.

But maybe — MAYBE — this will spur the Topinka people to put on a real campaign in the final week instead of throw their hands in the air, which is/was a real possibility.

Comment by RickG Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:17 pm
message to Whitney voters….why? if you are pro choice on reproductive issues, you need to be with the gov. if you are in favor of reasonable gun regulations, with the gov. again. as a person in favor of those two things, I curse Ralph Nader and am cursing open cary Whitney now.

Comment by bench coach Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:21 pm
According to an interview that Pinka did down in Champaign/Urbana, she’s promising to appoint some Greens if elected. LOL I wonder if she’s willing to accept a State Board of Elections with three Republicans and two Greens!

Comment by Squideshi Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:22 pm
“E-G,” please, do you think Copley would make up numbers to dissade people from voting for Rich Whitney? Seriously, explain yourself, please.

And to the Blagojevich supporters: Many of you have derided Topinka supporters (as have I, many, many times) for casting doubt on every poll that shows JBT far behind. So, spare us the late conversion to poll skepticism now that one poll has JBT closing the gap - as all challengers routinely do at the end of a campaign. Thanks.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:23 pm
“wretched harridan”

Quote of the day!

Comment by Ken in Aurora Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:23 pm
I’d like to see the crosstabs on all of those polls. I thought a 16 point lead for Blago this late in the game was way out of line. Also, in the polls showing Blago with a huge lead, there were too many undecideds for this late.

I wonder, Rich, if they included the “leaners” in the Copley poll and not in the others. It’s too late not to count leaners. If you’re going to vote, you’ve got to vote for somebody. As I’ve said before, there’s no “none of the above” on the ballot (except Whitney).

Comment by HoosierDaddy Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:28 pm
Well, on Friday the feds will supposedly get a review of Rezko’s finances. Will they show just how sleazy a financier our guv was hanging with?
Will we get the info at all on Friday. It might help some of the undecideds.

We already know Rezko doesn’t really own his luxury home in Wilmette that he put up for bail.
I bet there is more sleazy stuff like that.

Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:29 pm
The Peraica Toddler race has Cook County turned upside down. It will be a major factor on election day. JBT will ride in on the Peraica factor.

Comment by Buck Flagojevich Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:29 pm
All that tainted money has bought nothing, accept now, we have race.
No cheating now, Rod.

Comment by To Funny Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:33 pm
Seems as though we the people aren’t the Neanderthals after all! PalosParkBob - stay Green, really, stay Green. Angie - I’m redoing my bathroom, could you suggest a gay guy to help? Do we have decorators on a community service sentence for prior unauthorized decorating? Really!

Comment by Belle Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:38 pm
Look, folks. Every other poll has been showing three parallel trends. Blago’s number remain constant; Topinka’s numbers remain constant or even dip; Whitney’s numbers continue to rise. These trends are from one poll to the next conducted by the same polling firm, using (we would assume) the same methodology.

The first Copley poll had Whitney low compared to other polls and Topinka high compared to other polls. This one does as well.

We don’t know the methodology that’s been employed, but there are a number of ways that a technically methodologically sound poll could skew results. You can define “likely voters” in a much more rigid factor, for example, which would serve to exclude more younger voters and would also exclude more mobile voters.

Given that every other credible poll has Whitney over 10 points and no other credible poll has Topinka knocking on the door of 40 points at this stage, the only thing this poll is useful for is looking at the trends. This poll suggests more of an upward swing for Topinka. We’ll see if other polls bear that out.

Obviously Topinka backers are excited about this poll and are going to claim that Mason-Dixon is the best polling firm etc. etc. Folks, it’s just one poll, and it represents one extreme edge of the polling. It doesn’t mean a whole lot. And it’s not going to suddenly be considered more important than the Tribune, Herald, and Zogby polls all at once… except, of course, by the Copley papers.

Comment by Phil Huckelberry (ILGP Co-Chair) Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:39 pm
Anyone see Peracias; new ad? It is some white woman, 45-55 yo talking about how she is a democrat voting for Peraica. It looks like her lips say one thing, but we hear another. Anyone else see it?

Comment by Wumpus the Free Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:43 pm
Well Rich, if you must know I actually think that the Blago people might have helped “encourage” such a polling by JBT/a Whitney decline. JBT HAS NEVER broken 40% and she has done nothing to see why she should be NOW, especially when EVERY other poll has her UNDER 35%. Whitney has been 10%+ for over a week in quite a number of polls; now he’s a 7%???

I would actually lay this at the feet of a Democratic influence at Copley to make it look closer than it is, to attempt to sway public opinion from casting their ballot for a 3rd party, after all, as stated above by others, Greens on the ballot definately HURT the Dems. in the long term. Rod has nothing to lose by making the race appear closer than it is, and everything to gain if he could somehow stunt Whitney’s push & the potential for the Greens to fall short of 5% and be on the balot in the future. It’s not near as far-fetched as you might think.

Comment by E-G Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:44 pm
Oh Man is this race starting to remind me of Poshard-Ryan … I still think Judy loses, but who knows, it might be a lot closer than the CW predicts.

Comment by ZC Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:44 pm
Does this mean that it would be a smart stratgey for Topinka to drop some anti-Whitney ads?

Comment by Nickname Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:49 pm
“E-G,” that’s just bizarre.

1) Races always tighten up.

2) Third party candidates almost always lose support as the election nears and people decide not to “waste” their votes.

3) Copley is not a Democratic chain. Have you any idea of who Mrs. Copley was?

4) Your theory is more far-fetched than you can imagine.

And for everyone else, I’m not gonna tolerate this sort of Illinois Leaderesque crap here. Go to the SJ-R site, which allows stuff like this.

The closer we get to the election, the weirder the comments. It ends now. Deletions are gonna be brutal.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:51 pm
I don’t question the validity of the poll, but I wonder if the 7% (or more) polling for Whitney will have the courage of their convictions come Tuesday?

Will they see how close the race is and vote not for someone, but against who they perceive as the greater evil?

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Whitney drop support in the actual election while Rod and Judy pick it up.

Comment by doubtful Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:52 pm
Not been getting much sleep Rich? Don’t worry, just a week to go. Then you should be able to relax for a good couple days before a new indictment is announced.

Comment by Nickname Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:53 pm
I don’t know anything about any of this but if “quincy” is Republican, I’m selling my elephant, joining a labor union and taking up smoking two packs a day….

Comment by Bird Man Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 3:59 pm
“Nickname,” there is such a thing as being too successful. Blog traffic here is up well over 50 percent in the past two months.

Frankly, I don’t want all these new people hanging around the blog (E-G just started posting a few days ago). I don’t care about them. I want them to go away. They’re more trouble than they’re worth. That’s why instead of arguing with them, I’m just gonna start deleting comments from people who think that a major newspaper chain would knowingly, deliberately and purposefully concoct a poll from whole cloth (I think the Sun-Times may have been duped, but that’s another story).

The only people I really care about here are my subscribers and the intelligent commenters wth something new to say. Everyone else can be fun, but it doesn’t matter to me one way or another if they’re here or not.

If that insults anyone, so be it. Show that you’re insulted by kindly leaving.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:01 pm
Another week
Another poll
Another “governor leads” headline
Guess that is …. repeat after me…another homerun for GRod !

Comment by Reddbyrd Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:03 pm
===I think we can safely assume that there are false answers given to pollsters.

There really isn’t much evidence of this. The biggest phenomenon where it’s been documented is when whites say they’ll vote for blacks and strangely the numbers slip on election day. That hasn’t been true in Illinois for some time and Obama actually did the reverse of that.

But generally the proof is in the pudding and people are strangely flattered to have their voice heard–they then go out and complain about it. But the evidence is that most polling gets it pretty close.

–The only thing polls do is make us become complacent and thus perhaps not feel that our vote is needed or that it wonâ€™t change the outcome. GO VOTE PEOPLE. Donâ€™t put too much faith in what the polls say.

The thing is most voters don’t follow polls so it’s hard to figure out how they make people complacent. The people who can cite poll numbers almost all vote. They are weird. Okay. We are weird. We pay attention to such things and then forget that everyone else isn’t this obsessed with politics.

Comment by Archpundit Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:05 pm
I was just ready to stop paying attention.

Comment by chinman Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:06 pm
Screw the polls. Look at 2002 and go from there…

Blagojevich beat a guy named Ryan as another Ryan was headed for the pokey. How did he do that? By running as a reformer. By getting a big turnout in downstate Illinois. By appearing as a shining knight that would change the way business is done in Illinois. Even with these pluses, Blagojevich’s win wasn’t big.

Now look at 2006. Where is that big downstate support? Where is that reformer we fell for? How is business being done in Illinois? Most incumbants lose luster, Blagojevich lost a lot since 2002.

So he tried to buy us off. He proposed one social program after another without financial support. He proposed one campaign reform after another, everytime his campaign was embarrassed. He froze state hiring, then ran circles around laws to hire hungry supporters. He built a record-busting campaign warchest of $50 million.

He has known this would be a tight race. He started his TV carpet bombings in March. He avoided the press as scandals emerged. He spent millions in negative ads smearing what an opponent free from scandals even after 12 years in office.

So, we need to know next Tuesday; can enough voters be bought off with faux health care? Will voters believe negative ads, even when done poorly against a seasoned opponent?

Polls are also highly questionable. Who bought them? Who is answering them? How are they even contacting voters? We have been seeing polls all over the place. They seem rather worthless, don’t they?

But the bottom line is this race is supposed to be close. With Blagojevich-Stroger-Giannoulais on a Cook County ticket, the “machine” that supposedly exists, will need to work even harder than before to get voters excited. Rallies are not encouraging for the Democrats right now in the South Side. Central and Southern Illinois is not supporting Blagojevich as they had in 2002.

Will we be seeing the first governor ever inaugurated in an orange Department of Corrections jumpsuit? Or are we going to demand better? Whatever the answer is, these polls are not providing it, thats for sure!

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:06 pm
Polls go up and down based on chance to some degree. This poll fits with about everything we know about polling though in that it shows natural tightening. That said, there’ll be another poll along soon and we can compare the two and see if it’s an outlier or a trend.

Comment by Archpundit Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:12 pm
Angie, full disclosure time… are you one of those “moderate” Republican women who have personally pledged to NEVER vote for a Republican candidate who is not pro-choice? If so, don’t pull this “party unity, big tent” c**p now.

Also, it is not that Judy is a “moderate” that bugs knowing Republicans; it is that she is just simply a jerk and a rather unsophisticated, unimpressive one at that.

Angie, it is so predictable that a “moderate” Republican like you would, at the 11th hour, look at the facts that have been apparent for ages and have an “oh s**t” moment, realizing that a “moderate” Republican candidate NEEDS conservative voter support. Should’ve thought of that months ago. Your last minute begging is unseemly.

Comment by Conservative Republican Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:15 pm
I was called and polled last night by St Louis’s channel 5 (about the Illinois race). Is this the same or different poll?

Comment by Ambulance chaser Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:20 pm
Was the Copley poll taken before or after the Patti/Rezko real estate revelation? If it was the latter this could explain some of the uptick in the Topinka numbers. The election is getting close and many people are now just starting to pay attention.

Comment by Downstater Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:33 pm
AC–that’ll be Survey USA–it’s different.

Comment by archpundit Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:34 pm
If Vlad Corruptovich loses his bid for a second term as governor of Illinois, what will he do?
Were always hiring crooks at the Illinois Tollway, no application nessesary…..

Comment by Illinois Tollway Guy Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:39 pm
Illinois Tollway Guy
Hey, we don’t use applications here either.
The nit-wits just show up……

Comment by I.D.O.T. Bleachers Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:43 pm
Belle-I fully tend to “stay Green” for Whitney because I’ve already voted.

That was the only way I could vote for “none of the above” as recommended by Jack Roesser and FTN.

I’m also one of those odd birds who’s a conservative environmentalist. I’m a LEED certified professional, and know way too much about the effects of toxic nuclear and chemical waste not to be concerned.

If I could find a “Green” candidate who wasn’t a stone socialist, I could vote for them.

Don’t worry Rich, I don’t think I’m part of any impending trend!

Comment by PalosParkBob Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:49 pm
These are the newest numbers we have. The Tribune poll (44-29-13) was taken Oct. 27-29. The Daily Herald poll (48-32-12) was taken Oct. 16-22. Glad to see this momentum.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 4:49 pm
625 likely voters in what region of Illinois?

Comment by James III Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 5:01 pm
Conservative Republican,
Hopefully you will hold your nose and vote JBT. Otherwise, we conservatives will get Rod again and that’s a disaster. JBT may not be what we’re after, but she’s tried to reach out by choosing Birkett. She’s better on fiscal issues, she’s better on guns and she’s dead even with Blago on many social issues. She’s better, for us, than him. Plus, she gives conservatives in the legislature a seat at the table if she’s the Gov. They haven’t been at the table for awhile.

I’m begging with Angie. Come on, friend, don’t let it be a clean sweep.

Comment by Truth Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 5:21 pm
Conservative Republican… Angie and Truth are right. Hold that nose and vote. A vote for anyone but Judy is a vote for Rod…. And you know the saying… If you vote for Rod, you’ll get the shaft!

Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 5:23 pm
It’s going to be a clean sweep. Does anyone know where the Dem party is going to be in Springfield?

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 5:23 pm
Dem Party in Springfield ? Are you kidding ? They haven’t been in Springfield in years.

Comment by Citizen A Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 5:43 pm
I suppose I’m not very sophisticated, as most Illinois political afficionados are, but I have never believed that Blagojevich would be re-elected.

How can one of the great States of the USA re-elect a guy whose original election was based upon the curious fact that a very good Republican candidate had the same name as the discredited incumbent? How could Illinois, the home of honest Abe Lincoln, go on to re-elect a Governor rather early-on identified as an obviously disturbed goofball with delusions dominating his every thought and action?

This guy has sold every important governmental decision made by State officials for four years in order to build his personal wealth and to create a political fund that he may not even be able to spend before election day.

I just have more faith in democracy in America than to believe that you can rule corruptly for four years then use the gains of that corruption to confuse voters with propaganda designed to make a decent woman candidate look no less corrupt.

I believe Judy will win because that’s the right result. Any other result would mark the end of modern enlightened government in Illinois.

Sorry if that offends the more sophisticated of you.

Comment by Kent Steinkamp Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 5:47 pm
That is not true Citizen A… they are in Springfield… occasionally. They like to come down from Chi-town for a couple of days and work employees to death. And get the hell out of there as fast as possible. Isn’t it so inconvenient for those poor, poor people that they actually have to go to their workplace to do their job. Aww, poor democrats….

Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 5:50 pm
Lefty is still undecided. Let me make it easier for you here, and I will elect to make a nonpartisan argument, since I think this is a good one that applies to all Illinois voters.

We give someone a shot for 4 years. We observe what happens. If there’s a stench coming from that incumbent’s administration, we make that person a one termer in the hopes that we keep rotating faster until someone actually does something that makes them deserve another term (like Lisa Madigan, who has a high approval rating, and who you couldn’t get me to vote for fast enough).

As far a JBT being within striking distance (this is where my partisan argument kicks in), she’s done well with less money, able to remain in striking distance even as the wasteful incumbent mercilessly unleashed ammo at her from his well-funded campaign war chest, just because it was there, when he ought to be saving it to cover the expense of the lawyers he’ll be needing.

Doing more with less, and that’s exactly what JBT will have to do with Illinois in the fact of a huge backlog of Medicaid bills and other issues that currently have Illinois on the brink of disaster. She’s realistic; Rod is in La La Land, trying desperately to promise us more stuff when we can’t even pay for the government we already have.

Oh, and about those subpoenas that AG Madigan has been asking about? Where are they, Rod? We deserve to know.

See? Makes the choice so much easier for you undecideds. See you on election day. Vote wisely.

Comment by Angie Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 5:58 pm
How could people seriously cast a vote for Blago? He has surrounded himself with a bunch of goofs that are all making money hand over fist legally and illegally. Rezko and Kelly are just the ones that get ink. How about guys like John Wyma? Take a look at the Sec. of State lobbyist search and this guy is killing!

Comment by Drank the Juice? Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 6:11 pm
OK help me understand this. For the last few weeks we have seen polls that show Rod with somewhere between a 8-12 point lead. This spread has been the same in lots of polls with the exception of the Sun Times. Now this poll pops up with it being 4-6 points. I don’t think major media outlets would us polling firms that don’t know what they are doing and waste money doing so. However, if all the polls are showing a large lead for Rod, why should we take this new as being “the facts”. All give you that it is the most recent, but what did JBT do to close the gap this quick?

Please spare me the GOP vs. Dem. bla, bla, bla. If the new poll is correct, won’t the Tribune, Sun and Post Dispatch along with others be firing their polling firms?

Comment by Just Asking Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 6:15 pm
The sang d party have helped more rs get jobs than ds when you ask then about all the city jobs to rs they say the city is non partisan i hope they remember those words during the next election of m dablin, now that we know it is non partisan we can help the non partian candidate who runs against dablin sorry todd and tim and tim you lost your dem base and we will not let you forget it. it never has been about r and d with you guys all for yourself good job youre the new hogs but not very good at it

Comment by observer Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 6:16 pm
Re: “Angie - Iâ€™m redoing my bathroom, could you suggest a gay guy to help?”

Come on, Belle. I was poking a little snark at the people who might not support the Republican candidate over her more moderate views.

Surely you got the joke.

Comment by Angie (this is for Belle) Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 6:16 pm
wumpus….the peraica ad with the “Claypool reform voter” whatever that means. Peraica means Bush in Croatian.

Comment by bench coach Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 6:17 pm
I’m a conservative Republican, a very conservative Republican. I supported Bill Brady in the Primary. But, I am going to proudly vote for Judy. I don’t agree with her positions on several key issues that are always hot-buttons for conservatives. But, I am convinced that a moderate Republican beats someone like Blagojevich any day.
I’ve said many times, “This ain’t over till it’s over”. I believe this poll. Judy is surging at the end of the campaign. Will it be enough for her to win? I don’t know. But I do know that I was walking my precinct all day yesterday doing everything I could to drum up votes for Judy. I would suggest that all good Republicans do the same; whether you’re conservative or moderate. By the way Rich, where’s Bill today? His absence almost adds credibility to the poll.

Comment by Jechislo Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 6:19 pm
Why do you have to call Bill in? I was enjoying the discussion.

Comment by Truth Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 6:36 pm
Maybe people are starting to pay attention to the election now and are waking up to the fact that Blagojevich is a disingenuous, corrupt idiot.

Just a thought.

Comment by Buck Flagojevich Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 6:42 pm
I’m a first-time poster and I second what “Jechislo” said. But I also have to agree with an earlier poster who suggested that voting for Whitney, to establish a place on the ballot for a third party and whip the other two parties into shape, might also be a good thing. I will vote for Topinka but I am rooting for Whitney to get his 5 percent. Just get rid of the Current (Non) Occupant!

Comment by 'Lainer Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 8:39 pm
What about the voters that will not vote for any gubernatorial candidate. I think you are leaving out a big factor here. Many will vote, but not vote for governor.

Comment by Confused Republican Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 8:49 pm
It’s not scientific, but if the Copley papers were polling people in the areas where their papers circulate, the poll could be affected by the utter hate and contempt Springfieldians have for the governor. I frankly don’t keep track of where the other papers are, but it’s a theory.

A better one is that the polls lag three weeks to four weeks after a news event breaks, time enough for it to percolate into the average citizen’s consiousness maybe, and this poll is finally just now showing backlash over the Rezko stuff.

Comment by second citizen Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 8:54 pm
Buck:
You are right on….People are finally starting to realize that Rod has been promising anything, saying anything, and downright lying about JBT and any other subject that he feels will get him re-elected……How pathetic of an example of a public servant. The only thing he is serving is his own self centered interest……A SICK and PATHETIC excuse for a leader.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 8:55 pm
The person that posted around the 1pm time made a nice comment about the St Louis newspaper saying that the last gov election will be close. Look what happend. It wasn’t close. I know copley is different then the St Louis paper and probably more accurate. But from the area I live she is slowly picking up support. Same for Rosakm. He was down for a while but I would say that he is up by no more than 2 points.

Comment by Notyet! Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 8:59 pm
“If Vlad Corruptovich loses his bid for a second term as governor of Illinois, what will he do?”

I guess he may have to file as an attorney in IL and practice law.

This election may come down to the weather. What is the forecast for Tuesday?

Comment by Shelbyville Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:03 pm
A lot of the copley papers are around the chicago suburbs, so if we are polling like that and downstaters aren’t crazy about him, maybe there’s a chance for Judy.

It was nice to see a commercial for Lisa Madigan today, they mentioned in it the fact that she even was against her own party’s governor sellng the Thompson/State of Illinois/Big Ugly Glass building. It’s nice to see that there’s disagreement in both parties. Should be fun this Tuesday.

Comment by Concerned Voter Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:14 pm
What will he do if he loses ? First he will have to get his law license back - he let it lapse. Then he’ll probably hire himself to defend against the charges coming from Fitz against him for his graft and corruption. Then he’ll move to Club Fed for 10 to 20. Then . . . well by then it really won’t matter.

Comment by Citizen A Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:18 pm
Weather for election day……….Chance of rain, high in the 50’s

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:25 pm
It appears Birkett continues to drag JBT down despite all the negative Blago news. Too bad she did not pick a better candidate…..looks like the Whitney concealed carry stuff is sinking him too

Comment by DuPage Dandy Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:27 pm
Rich: anyway of letting us know the reliability/success of polling firms over the last few races? I remember Zogby did a poll in 02 that had Ryan closing the gap in the last week and it turned out to be wrong. Copley seems to be reliable enough but just wondering how they’ve fared in the past.

Comment by Napoleon Dynamite Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:33 pm
I’m praying the SJ-R poll reflects reality. I voted for Blago in 2002 and felt better about that vote then than just about any I’ve ever cast. But watching as he lied, deceived, ignored his campaign pledges and allowed corruption to flourish in every direction around him has turned me sour toward him like no other politician in my lifetime. I know Judy and I know her faults, but I can’t believe she would be any worse than what we’ve had for the past three-plus years. I’ll be voting for her next Tuesday, my first Republican vote for governor since Edgar over Hartigan. My sense is that many of the independents and those giving Whitney some thought will eventually turn her way, making for a very close election night. I believe that Blago’s reckless leadership style will catch up to him. Let’s hope it’s the voters who pull the plug on his disastrous reign before the U.S. attorney does.

Comment by Down the middle Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:34 pm
This polling is reminiscent of 98, as a previous poster noticed. Poshard was always down, and the media used their own polls to write “news” which usually had headlines like, “Pro-gun, gay-hating hayseed trails a good man” … or less complimentary if some left wing fringe group had held a protest rally that morning.

Remember, just days before the election, the Chicago Sun Times poll had the race at about a four percent margin. In the end, the difference was what — about 3%, or just a hair less?

I say this poll is pretty on target and that means it ends up being a 47-45-8 race.

Blagojevich will win. And on that I bet a rack of ribs from 17th Street!

Comment by Little Egypt Native Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:40 pm
Ok how’s this screenplay:

The battle field has started to clear–the fog has lifted, the gun smoke has dissipated and the wounded have been retrieved. Emperor Rod “Maximilian” Blagoevich has directed a $15 million cannonade at the undisciplined, disorganized and underfurnished Topinkaites and to both armies’ dismay, the Topinkaites knowing not where to turn even if they could, stand battered and weary but inexplicably still in position. Dismayed, exhausted and disillusioned, the Maximilians seek leadership–out of this valley–if for nothing but to reflect on this situation. But Max is distracted and both sides now stunned–line to line and alomost eye to eye–know that this battle hinges not on artillery– but on just one final and potentially fatal action of grace–a swift and decisive cavalry charge…..

Comment by Ignatius J. Reily Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:44 pm
Glad to see a change for Judy. She may not be the best candidate but I think she will do her best for the state. I would love to see her get some prime time slot on all the major morning shows and just sit in front of a blue screen and talk to the people of Illinois, stating her plan for the state and promising that her term will be corruption free. Just be honest and be herself.
And no negatives about Milarod. I think it would get lots of free replays and would be such a pleasant change from the boatload of negative ads out there that people will stop and be surprised.

As for the weather next Tuesday, I hope Chicago gets the rain and ice storm of the century. But I bet all the dead people will still get out to vote. Cook County never fails in getting that group out.

Comment by Disgusted Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:50 pm
Folks remember the last few days belong to the organization. The machine may not be what it once was but with blago’s mailing, TV, and idiots like me walking the precincts that is pretty had to beat. Topinka does not have enough to finish. This will be either razor close or a romp by blago. Either way Blago wins. I will bet a Paul Powell shoebox on it.

Comment by the ole precinct captain Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:54 pm
I was also curious about the weather forecast.
Springfield 56/38, mostly cloudy, 30% chance of precip. Chicago 40/24, cloudy, 10% chance of precip.

That’s not unlike the 1982 Election Day forecast when Thompson was predicted to win in a landslide and we all know it ended up.

Of course, the weather sucked that day all over the state.

No pollster can predict the weather.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 9:54 pm
I’m all for the weather’s inclusion in prognostication here…

but isn’t 6 days out a little hairy for an accuracy level? I barely trust the 3-day forecast as it is.

Comment by Chambananon Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 10:22 pm
Little Egypt Native - you’re on for that bet at 17th Street - in Marion. Meet you at the fire pit inside at 8 p.m. Bring your credit card because we intend to order the family deal for $60 and celebrate JBT’s win.

Comment by Little Egypt Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 11:09 pm
Rs your last gov is going to jail la la la la la la la!!!!! get over it you lost, will loose again and more of you wil loose your jobs the tidal wave is coming grap the tree quick. but please take martin and doubet and stout with you

Comment by observer Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 11:20 pm
A pox on both houses. As much as I dislike the Governor, I’m tired of what both the Democrats and Republicans have been dishing up. Here’s a great opportunity to stir the pot a little bit; something we don’t often get to do in Illinois.

I’m staying green.

Comment by staying green Wednesday, Nov 1, 06 @ 11:22 pm
Man, all these bets are starting to be made. I think I made a safer bet for Mark Kirk… saying that I would pick a dem ballot in ‘08 and vote for Hillary in the primary if Kirk lost. But on this race, I wouldn’t even bet Phil Hare’s necktie!!!

Comment by Lovie's Leather Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 12:04 am
So if I forget how to spell Nieukerk and write in “The funny fat dude”, will my vote be counted for him?

Comment by Nickname Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 12:47 am
- Concerned Voter

“A lot of the copley papers are around the chicago suburbs, so if we are polling like that and downstaters arenâ€™t crazy about him, maybe thereâ€™s a chance for Judy.”

In fact, the Copley papers around Chicago were sold to Hollinger several years ago. The remaining Copley papers in Illinois are in southern Illinois and are up for sale if you’re interested.

Comment by Stuck with Sen. CPA Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 12:50 am
Sorry, Nickname. I am afraid that vote would count toward Randy Stufflebean….

Comment by Lovie's Leather Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 1:03 am
Little Egypt, I know exactly where you are talking about-haven’t been there in years. That food would be worth a drive from Springfield sometime.

Hope you enjoy the meal and hope it’s not on you.

AA

PS: Hope Bill’s your waiter.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 1:54 am
It’s about time there was a poll that was more believable.

Comment by Jake's Chicago Politics Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 6:05 am
People, this is a statewide survey.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 6:13 am
Let’s close this thread and move here instead. Thanks.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 6:41 am