Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Illinois Policy Institute poll: Everybody is unpopular and nobody has a clear mandate

Posted in:

Illinois
Polls
Updated Posts

Today, Illinois Policy Action released the results of a new statewide poll conducted this week by Ogden & Fry. The poll found that likely Illinois voters are frustrated with the General Assembly budget gridlock and their elected officials – but they blame state politicians and Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan the most, as opposed to Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner. The poll also found that nearly half of likely voters would have an unfavorable view of elected officials who raise taxes to balance the budget.

Illinois has been without a state budget for more than 100 days. Lawmakers sent Rauner a budget that was unbalanced by nearly $4 billion, so he vetoed almost all of it. Rauner has said he would like to see the state make significant economic reforms before considering raising taxes. State politicians, specifically those under the leadership of Speaker Madigan, have refused to pass such reforms.

“The poll results are clear: Illinoisans are frustrated by the budget stalemate, and they’re frustrated with politicians who are holding the budget hostage in opposition to much-needed economic reforms,” said John Tillman, CEO of Illinois Policy Action. “For many years, lawmakers relied on tax hikes, borrowing and accounting gimmicks to pass unbalanced budgets, and voters see where that dysfunction has led the state. That’s why voters don’t want politicians to raise taxes to balance the budget, and they are putting more blame on Madigan and other members of the General Assembly than the newly elected governor. With these poll results out in the open, politicians now have a choice whose side they’ll take.”

Ogden & Fry conducted the statewide poll on Oct. 20 and 21. The same poll also was conducted in Cook County.

Here are some key findings from the statewide poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Gov. Rauner is handling his job?

Approve: 34.4 percent [Corrected number]
Disapprove: 53.2 percent
Undecided: 12.4 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Speaker Madigan is handling his job?

Approve: 19.9 percent
Disapprove: 57.2 percent
Undecided: 22.8 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of the Illinois General Assembly?

Approve: 9.8 percent
Disapprove: 69.6 percent
Undecided: 20.6 percent

How would you view the elected official who raised taxes to balance the budget?

Favorably: 30.8 percent
Unfavorably: 48.8 percent
Undecided: 20.4 percent

* None of that is a surprise, except that Madigan’s disapproval rating is only a few points higher than Rauner’s. That’s a big surprise to me. It took Madigan 40+ years to rack up that disapproval rating. Rauner has apparently done it in less than a year.

* But, unsurprisingly, there’s more to the poll than the group reveals - mainly that there is no mandate for either side here.

“Illinois is in terrible financial shape. Should Gov. Rauner fix the political and economic issues that created the problems even if services to the needy are cut?”…

“The Illinois Constitution requires the State to have a balanced budget. The State Budget has not been balanced in over 10 years helping create today’s budget crisis. How would you view the elected official who cut services to balance the budget?”…

“In order to fix the budget, would you rather services be cut or pay more in taxes?”…

* And check this one out: “Are you or someone in your immediate family affected by the budget stalemate?”…

That’s a huge percentage of the population.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 2:54 pm

Comments

And the only conclusion I can reach from this is… John Tillman is still crazy.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 2:58 pm
Hmmm…neither raising taxes nor cutting services is acceptable, and everyone’s doing a poor job. With mixed signals like this, anything goes.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 2:59 pm
Just me, but I don’t think our governor was expecting results like those. Especially from IPI.

Of course, he doesn’t read polls. /s

Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:00 pm
The “services cut” number starts to go down when you begin naming specific services to be cut. Eventually, the “pay more in taxes” number goes up correspondingly.

Under Quinn, and with the 5% tax rate, the Democrats did both. Taxes were higher and services were cut. That’s what we need to return to while we figure out some long-term plans to pay the pension debt and properly invest in Illinois.

Wake me when the bozos in charge figure this out.

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:01 pm
==and they’re frustrated with politicians who are holding the budget hostage in opposition to much-needed economic reforms,” said John Tillman, CEO of Illinois Policy Action==

That’s some hilarious spin right there. Kinda like the national GOP blaming their shutdown on Obama because he refused to repeal obamacare.

If you are deflecting blame, chances are you are losing.

Comment by Abe the Babe Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:02 pm
69.2% of the respondents have no idea to what extent the services they benefit from will have to be cut to balance the budget without new revenues.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:03 pm
There should be a poll to see how many people know what the IPI is.

Comment by Buzzie Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:03 pm
Rich, did Ogden & Fry make the page to reveal the full results of the poll that IPI did not reveal?

Comment by Straight no Chaser Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:04 pm
More proof that Rauner and Madigan need each other, and both need to accept reality.

The odds of either winning the whole pot here are slim, but both keep bluffing and calling while the pot grows precipitously.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:04 pm
They released this poll? And they think it helps their side? Wow.

Comment by AlabamaShake Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:06 pm
==“The poll results are clear: Illinoisans are frustrated by the budget stalemate, and they’re frustrated with politicians who are holding the budget hostage in opposition to much-needed economic reforms,” said John Tillman, CEO of Illinois Policy Action.==

I have yet to see anyone make the case that the reforms in the “turnaround agenda” are financial in the first place, or for that matter, much needed. Also, who is holding the budget hostage? Every episode of Law and Order I’ve seen usually ends up with the kidnapper being blamed, not the people being forced to pay the ransom.

Comment by Dilemma Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:06 pm
“Illinois is in terrible financial shape. Should Gov. Rauner fix the political and economic issues that created the problems even if services to the needy are cut?”

The >1% margin is stunning in light of the question’s loaded language.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:06 pm
I also think comparing negatives from somebody elected by the entire start to someone elected by a district is dangerous.

Comment by Carhartt Representative Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:09 pm
This is the kind of poll that irks me and shows the limitations of a poll. These folks can say what they want about cutting services and so forth, but they’re not being asked to identify which services they want to have cut so this poll is basically as empty as campaign promises.

It’s very common for a candidate for office to claim they’re going to “cut the waste” without identifying it. As a result, most voters develop the idea that there is waste to be cut out of any budget without anyone specifying which programs they think are wasteful spending, or specifically identifying what waste exists.

There are a lot of things that the state could do to make it’s operations more efficient, especially in the long run, but we’re not going to get there without the public investment in developing those new or improved processes.

I have been involved in too many election cycles to look at this poll and see it as constructive because the questions are too simplistic or poorly defined.

I’d like to see the state fix it’s political and economic problems and I would like to see it pass a budget, but of course these charmers would draft a question that would put me in the same column as some gullible Republican voter who is waiting for Bruce Rauner’s turnaround agenda to cause rainbows to shoot across the skies and make it so Illinois suddenly doesn’t have to pay for the services they’ve been taking for granted for longer than I have been alive.

There are people treating this like a zero sum game between Republicans and Democrats when everyone in the body politic as a whole is losing because of this process.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:12 pm
Carhartt - why?! Mr. Madigan may be elected by his own district, but he is put into the position of Speaker by officials who represent about 8 million people.

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:16 pm
=== None of that is a surprise, except that Madigan’s disapproval rating is only a few points higher than Rauner’s. That’s a big surprise to me. It took Madigan 40+ years to rack up that disapproval rating. Rauner has apparently done it in less than a year.===

@FakeIlGov: What Madigan did in 40 years I’ve done in 40 weeks

Comment by GraduatedCollegeStudent Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:18 pm
46% seems low to me. There are probably around 2 million k - 12 students, over 100,000 teachers, allegedly (according to the SJ-r for 2014) 82104 State Workers, tens of thousands of students at state universities or community colleges, and a large number of health care services providers in this State. Chances are you are related to at least one person who is in school or works in education or healthcare or the State or has a child in daycare.

Comment by benniefly2 Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:20 pm
We are winning! They are on the ropes and scared. -BVR

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:21 pm
A couple of real quick observations, without getting to much into the methodology of the poll (I am going to trust it was scientific):

1) The Governor being upside down is tough. You don’t invest in an entity where the leader is not respected.
2) While the Speaker’s numbers are bad, it takes a lot, in an election, to convince the electorate they need to make a change in their local elected official because of who the Speaker is…people love their reps!
3) The question about would you rather cut services or pay more in taxes seems to be split on an almost R/D/I breakdown. It is probably a coincidence but still strange

Comment by Downstate GOP Faithless Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:21 pm
So pretty much no one likes anyone and no one likes possible solutions. So we go that going for us.

Comment by Give Me A Break Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:21 pm
=== … except that Madigan’s disapproval rating is only a few points higher than Rauner’s. That’s a big surprise to me. ===

Me too! Wow, after how many GOP and Raunerite millions have been spent making Madigan the bogeyman this is the result. Frat boys, this poll is from your buds. Are you still winning?

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:22 pm
==In order to fix the budget, would you rather services be cut or pay more in taxes?==

Here’s how specific areas of the budget polled (% yes) last Spring with respect to taxes cuts:

pensions: 44.3%
universities: 35.9%
natural resources: 35.5%
public safety/prisons: 26.9%
programs for poor people: 23.1%
K-12 education: 15.7%
programs for the disabled: 13.2%

Note that the only cut that is more popular than a tax increase is pension cuts, and cutting pensions is not a legally viable option.

The poll from last Spring is here & includes a graph with trends back to 2008: http://www.rebootillinois.com/2015/03/23/editors-picks/mattdietrich/paul-simon-institute-poll-48-of-illinoisans-believe-tax-cuts-alone-cant-fix-state-budget/35224/

Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:23 pm
*” None of that is a surprise, except that Madigan’s disapproval rating is only a few points higher than Rauner’s. That’s a big surprise to me. It took Madigan 40+ years to rack up that disapproval rating. Rauner has apparently done it in less than a year.”

He also has Twice the approval rating.

Comment by Cannon649 Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:24 pm
Who cares? It’s the Illinois Schmolly Institute?

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:24 pm
===Who cares?===

I do. If you don’t, you can surf elsewhere.

Frankly, I think it’s hilarious that they would release a poll showing their guy is in such a predicament.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:26 pm
These two continue playing poker, as the house is on fire.

Meanwhile the dealer begs they just split the pot and get out before everyone burns.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:27 pm
This question is awful. Why are these choices -
This is not an either/or proposition.

“Should Gov. Rauner fix the political and economic issues that created the problems even if services to the needy are cut? Or just pass a budget?”

Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:27 pm
===He also has Twice the approval rating===

lol

If you wanna brag about a 39 percent job approval rating, be my guest.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:28 pm
It wasn’t a negative comment against you Rich. You are awesome! I just don’t respect them at all but I do see your pojnt - this is a joke!

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:28 pm
==He also has Twice the approval rating.==

I was waiting for that little gem of a comment to come up.

If you want to play this game he also has nearly the same disapproval rating as the Speaker.

Now can we stop playing this little game of who sucks less?

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:30 pm
=== Frankly, I think it’s hilarious that they would release a poll showing their guy is in such a predicament. ===

Boy is Tillman going to get a nasty phone call.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:31 pm
Tillman’s comment doesn’t make any sense, but is very funny.

The hostage analogy has been taken. Come up with your own material.

Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:32 pm
===Boy is Tillman going to get a nasty phone call. ===

Ya think?

lol

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:35 pm
IPI keeps harping on the GA submitting a budget that was $4 billion out of balance. Can one of you sharp budget observers please explain whether it is mathematically possible for the GA to submit a balanced budget for FY16 at this point? It doesn’t seem possible to me if 90% of the funds are going out the door due to court orders/legal requirements, but maybe I am ill-informed. I would greatly appreciate someone clarifying this.

By the way, I get that this blog is like a tavern in which the regulars have a certain earned supremacy, so I ask this humbly and intend to demonstrate that I am worth having in the discussion over time.

Comment by Young State Worker Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:35 pm
Wonder how long before we hear about IPI and the sham polls that Madigan controls.

Those number should be sobering to everyone in Springfield. I suspect they won’t be seen that way, however.

Comment by thunderspirit Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:36 pm
They never call me for these. The way questions are worded makes a huge difference in the way people are going to respond. Madigan doesn’t need to be as popular as the Gov. he only needs to be popular in his district, which, I am pretty sure he is.

Comment by burbanite Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:36 pm
=== He also has Twice the approval rating ===

Oh my. I betcha Madigan is so worried about his approval rating. Yes, this is snark. Raunerbots need to focus on what’s important.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:36 pm
===whether it is mathematically possible for the GA to submit a balanced budget for FY16 at this point? ===

Sure it is. But the tax rate would have to be very high.

If - and that’s a big if - they do get a deal, they’ll kick a bunch of payments down the road.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:37 pm
(I missed the “/s” label after my first comment. Sorry about that.)

Comment by thunderspirit Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:37 pm
-Frankly, I think it’s hilarious that they would release a poll showing their guy is in such a predicament.-

That’s a very interesting point. Why would IPI do that? It doesn’t seem like their MO.

Comment by Honeybear Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:40 pm
Kinda like congress, everyone hates them…but they love their congressman or congresswoman.

And I agree…why would IPI put this out? Just confirms what every other poll says about their guy. And If Rauner’s pollsters are telling him anything different than what other recent polls have shown they’re not being honest with their client.

Rauner says we’re winning??? Nah. Nobody is winning.

Comment by Corporate Thug Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:42 pm
==Now can we stop playing this little game of who sucks less?==

The GA’s 9.8% approve isn’t impressive? /s

Comment by Formerly Known As... Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:43 pm
Do you think Tillman will get Goldberged?

Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:44 pm
IPI’s lights will get shut off right around the time the Capitol’s power is shut off.

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:45 pm
AA -

I picture Mr. Goldberg’s entrance into a hearing room or meeting like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mieF6cMg90

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:48 pm
===will get Goldberged? ===

Likely Z’d. And that’s much, much worse.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:48 pm
Rauner’s approval rating is higher than I expected.

Comment by Tone Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:51 pm
Okay thanks Rich. I meant to verify whether spending cuts alone could balance the budget, and I take from your response that they cannot.

Comment by Young State Worker Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:53 pm
===that they cannot. ===

Sure they could, but they’d have to cut off aid to municipalities, universities, etc.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:55 pm
The only approval rate that matters to Madigan is within his district. Don’t they get the difference between being elected statewide vs. district?

Comment by Filmmaker Professor Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:56 pm
> Kinda like congress, everyone hates them…but they love their congressman or congresswoman.

This is an interesting point. I wish they could’ve polled, I dunno, “State Rep. Fran Hurley” to see if Madigan’s numbers are actually any worse than a generic legislator’s (…although no disrespect to a fine one in Hurley!).

I certainly suspect they are, and that every individual legislator polls better than legislators as a group, but it’s hard to tell from just these numbers.

Comment by anon Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:04 pm
=== That’s a very interesting point. Why would IPI do that? It doesn’t seem like their MO. ===

Honeybear, Goldberg is on the way to revoke their superstar staffer status.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:16 pm
“Illinois is in terrible financial shape. Should Gov. Rauner fix the political and economic issues that created the problems even if services to the needy are cut?”

What would really be interesting is if they individually polled his specific “fixes” for the “political and economic issues” and whether they’re more important than doing a budget.

Comment by drew Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:18 pm
Rauner’s ratings add up to 105%.

Comment by Iron Lady Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:19 pm
Any poll that shows Rauner in a bad light will be dismissed by him. If he listens to anyone, it would be his A List of avid supporters. At this point, I think the only one he’s listening to is himself…mumbling his mantras over, and over, and over…

Comment by Former Hoosier Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:20 pm
===Frankly, I think it’s hilarious that they would release a poll showing their guy is in such a predicament.===

Welp, now we know why Rauner ain’t sellin’ his plans, no one, (at the rate of 39%) is happy with him too.

This “release” is a Mike Z, hadle it himself, undressing.

You don’t undress the Governor to spin it positively.

Ever.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:23 pm
The poll would be more believable if they got their own numbers correct.

Rainier’s approval is actually 34.4 when you do the math.

Comment by Don't Worry, Be Happy Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:24 pm
So in terms of releasing a poll that shows their guy in such a predicament, it’s even worse.

Comment by Don't Worry, Be Happy Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:26 pm
Meanwhile, Rauner agrees to three more labor deals. Three more successful negotiations.

Is AFSCME the last hold out?

Comment by Formerly Known As... Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:27 pm
A legislator who votes to increase taxes still will not be as unfavorable as the governor. Seems like the IPI should be focusing on that message.

Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:28 pm
mumbling his mantras over, and over, and over…

“it is by will alone that I set my mind in motion…”

Comment by WeeblesWobble Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:28 pm
=== I meant to verify whether spending cuts alone could balance the budget, and I take from your response that they cannot. ===

Young State Worker, if Rauner thought he could do that, he would have. At least, he would have put forward another proposal doing so.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:31 pm
==If you wanna brag about a 39 percent job approval rating, be my guest.==

It sure sucks, but you can at least see how Rauner has a path back to public approval. Though I might argue he has to drop pretty much everything that makes him Rauner.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:42 pm
Don’t Worry @ 4:24. You are right! It is only 34.4% lol

Comment by anonlurker Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:45 pm
You wonder how many people who answered the survey realize what all of the reforms are.

Right to work wages in both the public and private sectors?

Reforms over pass the budget wins by nine tenths of one percent.

When I explain all of the reforms the governor wants no one wants his whole package, only bits and pieces of it.

Now that the Cubs are out of the playoffs John Tillman, CEO of Illinois Policy Action has some free time. During the playoffs with the Cardinals he was at all the games in the first row behind home plate. Nice to know all those one percenter’s.

Comment by Rollo Tamasi Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:46 pm
I’m retired after 30 years with the State and 12 with Local Government. I learned in local government that you need to EDUCATED the taxpayers using dollars and cents. When I was in local government that is what we did. This process will never be done overnight but would/did take several years.

Comment by Jim Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:48 pm
===[Rauner’s] approval is actually 34.4 when you do the math.===

Wow, you’re right — Good catch! That’s actually a pretty big unconscious (or obsequious??) spin by the IPI.

309 approvals out of 898 participants definitely = 34.4%, not 39.4%.

Source poll data: https://d2dv7hze646xr.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/IPA-Budget-2.pdf

Comment by Math(Usually)Doesn'tLie Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:50 pm
Yup! 34.4% approval. IPI better correct this pronto! Hahahaha

Comment by anonlurker Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:53 pm
“Illinois is in terrible financial shape. Should Governor Rauner fix the political and economic issues that caused the problems even if it means cuts to tne needy.”

I’m surprised that only got a 41.5% “yes.”

But tne question is so vague as to be useless.

What “financial shape” are we talking about? FY16, unfurnded pension liabilities, economic growth…. what? They are not all the same “issue.”

If we’re talking finances, start showing tne numbers.

Define the problem, in dollars and cents, and then demonstrate how the “fixes” will solve it, also in dollars and cents.

All this weasel-wording about “reforms,” and “structures” are meant to disguise a purely political agenda.

If its about money, start showing the money.

There’s not a big business in the world that would undertake major policy changes without justifying it with a thorough analysis with projected targets of measurable success.

If you don’t hit your number every quarter, or every year, you’ve got some explaining to do.

Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 4:56 pm
The General Assembly is made up of GOP members too, right? If so the low approval numbers aren’t just aimed at Democrats. Maybe there’s some dissatisfaction aimed at members who don’t represent their District, instead after accepting checks from the Governor they vote how he instructs them to vote.

Comment by The Dude Abides Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 5:07 pm
The governor has already said that universities could be shut down in spring without budget action.

The de facto budget that is in effect already antipates deficits, as in more than of anticipated revenue will be gone by Dec. 31.

There aren’t any razzle-dazzle plays here, although I suppose kicking tne can down the road with a POB might mitigate tne pain.

But it’s all going to sting, one way or tne other. But tne pain is being mainly borne right ñow by those who really don’t need another burden, so shame on us.

Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 5:20 pm
“Should the Governor prioritize union busting or the budget?” IPI would never ask something something like that.

Comment by The_Equalizer Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 5:49 pm
==The governor has already said that universities could be shut down in spring without budget action.==

I don’t think the Governor cares how many people he hurts. Venture Capitalist’s are vicious by nature and as cold hearted as they come. What does he care about college seniors who should be graduating? Edgar coming out was one thing but Thompson is a big money guy now. For Thompson’s people to step back says loads about Bruce’s support starting to wane.

Comment by Rollo Tamasi Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 5:50 pm
Yes, that is correct. The number is 34.4%, not 39.4%. Apparently, I transcribed the number incorrectly.

That is my error, not the Illinois Policy Institute, good catch by Iron Lady…Tom

Comment by Ogden & Fry Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 5:59 pm
I’m pleasantly surprised that more people chose a tax increase (as opposed to spending cuts), when compared with previous polls I’ve seen.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 6:00 pm
===Meanwhile, Rauner agrees to three more labor deals. Three more successful negotiations.

Is AFSCME the last hold out? ===

That’s one way of looking at it.

The other way involves noting that these unions collectively account for several hundred state workers, while AFSCME accounts for 30,000.

Comment by GraduatedCollegeStudent Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 6:05 pm
Rich, YSW, in very round numbers, it would take in excess of $10B in budget cuts to solve the problem thru cuts alone

Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 6:41 pm
Schnorf, $10B from today, or $10B from projected spending that began July 1?

Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 6:46 pm
Steve, excuse me, I doubt I’m being clear.

$10B from projected spending in the remainder of FY16, or $10B from projected spending for the entire fiscal year?

I think that might be clearer.

Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 6:50 pm
Ogden & Fry@ 5:59, Will you be correcting your report and redistributing it?

Comment by anonlurker Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 7:44 pm
@Young State Worker: I hope this answers your question. The various court decrees basically state you have to continue to provide this service or that service. In the absence of a budget, the services are to be provided at last year’s budgeted amount.

Now it is possible that the legislature can make cuts in the amounts appropriated for a particular service. If they cut into a constitutionally mandated or federally legislated service too much, I suppose the court could order more spending. But theoretically, you can comply with the consent decrees in place at a lower appropriation.

Someone above indicate it would take about $10 bln in cuts to balance FY2016 with no new taxes, and that sounds about right. The State could continue the bill backlog and actually cut maybe half that and get by. (It’s not a balanced budget, but it’s within the range of previous unbalanced budgets).

The problem is that with the K-12 appropriation signed, and with pension obligations, we’re talking cuts in many programs of 50% or so. Theoretically, sure it’s possible. Realistically, I don’t see how a Governor who backs down so quickly from any controversial cut (or this GA for that matter) does it. And cuts of that size would be very very bad for the State.

Comment by the Other Anonymous Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:36 pm
== Can one of you sharp budget observers please explain whether it is mathematically possible for the GA to submit a balanced budget for FY16 at this point? ==

- Young State Worker - Depends on your definition of “balanced”. If you mean just on paper at the time, sure … if you claim the pension and health insurance savings Rauner did and push a lot of the spending off into the next fiscal year and project unrealistic revenue … but those savings wouldn’t be found in an after the fact audit. If you mean a real balanced budget that a post-year audit will show was balanced, yes, that too can be achieved but it’s going to have to have a lot of new / reinstated revenue to make it work.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:47 pm
== They never call me for these. ==

They call me … but I have the numbers call blocked.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:48 pm
Thanks to all for the responses, I appreciate it.

Comment by Young State Worker Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 7:55 am