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“Don’t count on it”

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Black Hawk College president Bettie Truitt was among several college presidents who met with Governor Bruce Rauner on Thursday.

Dr. Truitt told the college’s board of trustees Thursday night that the governor spoke about his “turnaround agenda” for 15 or 20 minutes before asking for their input. She said she had made the point that in terms of the best taxpayer value for the buck, MAP grants given to community colleges are ideal. She noted the average MAP grant at a community college is $942, whereas the average MAP award at a four-year college is far more.

She said the governor was cautiously optimistic there would be a budget passed in January when not a supermajority but just a simple majority vote is needed.

Black Hawk receives $7.2 million from the state each year, which is 22 percent of the college’s total revenue. So far since July 1, the college hasn’t received anything. She said she asked the governor if a budget is passed, would the state receive funds retroactive to July 1?

“’His response was, ‘Don’t count on it,’” she said.

* And speaking of January, our commenter “Juvenal” wrote something today worth front paging…

Democrats and Republicans don’t like to raise taxes, and Democrats and Republicans don’t like to cut either.

The false partisan dichotomy when it comes to budget-making is one of the underlying problems in public policy analysis that has led to the failed GOP strategy.

Madigan understands that Republicans don’t like to cut, and he is using that to his strategic advantage.

As soon as Republican lawmakers adopt a new strategy that recognizes that Democrats don’t like to raise taxes, we will pass a budget.

Anyone who thinks it will be January is delusional.

He’s right about this weird Rauner assumption that Democrats can be “rewarded” for whacking unions by being allowed to vote for a tax hike. It makes no sense whatsoever, and it’s why I recently called for a capital plan to help grease the wheels.

Giving the Democrats a tax hike vote ain’t giving them a win. The resulting revenue is a win, for sure (and, don’t kid yourself, it’s a win for both parties), but the tax hike vote is not.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:17 pm

Comments

Juvenal articulated it so much better than I and others who’ve tried. Well done. Now hopefully people will think long and hard about what this reality means going forward.

But I won’t count on it.

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:22 pm
when you say the people who think it’ll be January are delusional, are you saying it will be much later than that, or earlier?

Comment by Johnny Pyle Driver Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:27 pm
==She said the governor was cautiously optimistic there would be a budget passed in January when not a supermajority but just a simple majority vote is needed==

Any parliamentarians out there… is this true when it is regarding a PREVIOUS year’s budget appropriations?

Comment by Jimmy CrackCorn Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:27 pm
==Democrats and Republicans don’t like to raise taxes, and Democrats and Republicans don’t like to cut either.==

And with the exception of a handful suburban GOPers, you could say the same thing about whacking unions.

But the state doesn’t HAVE to whack unions. It HAS to raise taxes and make cuts.

The governor not only has no clothes, he has no majority for his most important demands. Its a denial of reality that has caused this thing to go this far.

Comment by Abe the Babe Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:29 pm
Juvenal’s comment perfectly illustrates the delusional thinking that permeates the modern Republican Party. They really truly believe the “Democrat Party” is itching to have tax hike votes left and right. It’s insanity.

Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:33 pm
Don’t like to cut?!

Maybe some don’t, but seem to remember a candidate named Bill Brady who ran around the state and advocated a 10% across the board haircut. People smirked, hooped, hollered, screamed, etc., but he clearly said that he would attempt to implement those cuts evenly so that he wouldn’t target a specific program or agency or entity.

And he almost won doing it.

Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:37 pm
Why should community colleges count on state support when there’s so much turnin’ around to be done?

Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:37 pm
===‘Don’t count on it,’===

Okay then. That leaves you in the position of either whole-heartedly supporting the gov’s agenda or hoping that it crashes and burns…. Gee, which option do you see administrators supporting?

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:37 pm
===It makes no sense whatsoever, and it’s why I recently called for a capital plan to help grease the wheels.===

Is it prudent to borrow when our bond rating is so artificially terrible?

Comment by Anon Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:37 pm
Anon, do a budget deal and the ratings will increase.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:38 pm
Anon - why not?! It’s only future payments with interest.

I do think the idea is good, though, because transportation and infrastructure funding is about the only literal, true bipartisan issue.

Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:39 pm
Rauner has won exactly one campaign, essentially as an unknown promising the world. He hasn’t had to run on his record. It shows more and more each day.

I’m getting scared that he doesn’t care about winning a 2nd term. Slash and burn until the state’s a disaster.

Comment by Sir Reel Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:41 pm
I don’t think a simple majority can pass a budget for FY16. If I am reading the Illinois Constitution correctly, any bill that is retroactve requires a super majority. It is only the FY17 budget that can be passed in January with a simple majority.

Comment by A Jack Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:42 pm
Rauner still thinks he has a Grand Bargaining Chip that Madigan can’t refuse.

Comment by Mama Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:46 pm
==Is it prudent to borrow when our bond rating is so artificially terrible?==

Bonds for capital projects and general revenue bonds are two different sets of debt with very different revenue streams and obligations. They are mostly rated separately too. If you can find steady, predictable revenues then your interest wont be that bad.

Comment by Abe the Babe Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:46 pm
She said she asked the governor if a budget is passed, would the state receive funds retroactive to July 1?

“’His response was, ‘Don’t count on it,’” she said.

This also confirms reports that providers/agencies who were “asked” to continue to provide services may also not receive revenue retroactive to July 1. I wonder what the magic retroactive date will be. Food for thought- how are those providers who are counting on this retroactive revenue to cover their lines of credit going to fare now???

Comment by carbaby Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:47 pm
===If I am reading the Illinois Constitution correctly, any bill that is retroactve requires a super majority===

What specific language are you pointing to?

They did a retroactive tax hike in 2011 with a simple majority, so I don’t think you’re right about this.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:47 pm
“Don’t count on it.” This is why I would think twice about leaving any job to accept State employment now. I think many agencies are posting and filling positions as if they will end up with an appropriation amount that was in last spring’s budget bill. I foresee a haircut for all whenever this ends, and some painful layoffs to follow.

Comment by Original Rambler Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:48 pm
There won’t be a budget deal until Republican names are on the YES vote for a tax increase.

Comment by forwhatitsworth Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:49 pm
===Anon, do a budget deal and the ratings will increase.===

Yes the rates will eventually increase, but they’re not going to increase as quickly as they’ve decreased. The rating agencies will likely also frown on issuing additional debt when the state’s fiscal house is in disarray unless it accompanies revenue reforms that address the state’s entire portfolio of fiscal problems, which doesn’t actually seem to be on the table.

One of my pet peeves about this whole process is that it’s impossible for the state to declare bankruptcy so the risk simply isn’t present to justify the higher debt service that is usually associated with a decrease in rates.

I agree that a capital improvements plan might be a good way to get some folks to the table, but I have my reservations about how it would be financed.

The state has been incurring debt directly and indirectly by failing to raise the revenues to pay for service level adequacy. We’re not plugging a whole made by a capital improvement that might have future benefits, we’re plugging a structural “gap.”

Most of the liabilities that the state is facing are not what’s generally considered “good” debt. So, I think to add a capital plan on top of plugging the hole between revenues and spending would either require going over the top of what’s required to fix just the gap, or create a half measure for fixing the gap.

That half measure is what I am afraid of. The history of the state’s income tax rate reflects a body politic that simply doesn’t want to pay for the services it’s getting and hasn’t been asked to.

Comment by Anon Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:49 pm
@jimmycrackcorn - I think it would be similar to how a supplemental budget for appropriations for the current fiscal year only needs a majority if passed after january 1 but before may 31.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:52 pm
I am referring to Illinois Constitution Article IV section 10, effective date of laws. A law cannot become effective prior to June 1 of a calendar year. Anything passed after May 31 cannot become effective till the next June 1 without a supermajority.

So without the supermajority can we have a FY16 budget? I don’t see how that is possible unless Rauner has Delorean time machine to take the GA back to May 31.

Comment by A Jack Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:54 pm
Um, Jack, you need to go take a refresher course on the Illinois Constitution before posting again. Also, if you can find a course on calendars, take that too.

The clock resets on January 1st.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 12:55 pm
I guess the question is whether a budget in January or that 2011 tax increase or indeed the rescinding of the GA’s pay raise will be constitutionally challenged by anyone.

Comment by A Jack Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 1:01 pm
Johnny: January is exceedingly optimistic at this point. Veto session of 2016 is more likely than January. The closer you get to elections, the more partisan the already hyper-partisan atmosphere in Springfield becomes. And this will require a bipartisan agreement.

Team Sleep: Talking about cutting, and actually cutting are two different things. Ask any medical student.

A Jack: A bill can be passed in January with an immediate effective date and have a retro-active impact provided it does not otherwise violate the ex post facto prohibitions of the Constitution. Which taxes do not.

Rich: Honored, thanks.

Comment by Juvenal Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 1:15 pm
So community college programs are closing their doors and ending services to students, but yet another college president gets a raise. This time it’s a 2.4% increase that trustees are on the record saying, “(The raise) is not enough, but it sends the message the board wants to send.” What message is that?… Oh that administrative personal needs their bi-weekly check increase, while students are shut out of classes/services to help them escape their poor economic situations.

Comment by Realkewlio Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 1:15 pm
Learner question: Rich (or anyone) what do you mean by a capital plan?

Comment by Honeybear Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 1:23 pm
==what do you mean by a capital plan==

Roads. Bridges. Buildings. Every member would welcome capital spending in their districts. Capital bills are an easy place to start if you want to start getting people to talk.

Comment by Demoralized Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 1:31 pm
thanks, thought that was what you were saying

Comment by Johnny Pyle Driver Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 1:38 pm
It’s almost as if the Governor’s entire political knowledge base was derived from swilling Gimlets at a north shore country club.

Comment by Charlie Foxtrot Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 1:39 pm
Thanks Juvenal, that does make perfect sense about the ex post facto aspect.

Comment by A Jack Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 1:46 pm
== “’His response was, ‘Don’t count on it,’” she said. ==

Yeah, there’s a goof that REALLY knows how to govern.

Comment by sal-says Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 1:57 pm
Thanks Demoralized. So a capital plan is basically “low hanging fruit” projects. I’m assuming that they are bundled and not onesies. Or maybe onesies designed to engage or entice a certain legislator(s). Is that going the right direction? No wonder I didn’t get it. It seems Rauner has never been interested in this. Like a kid who wants to hold all the playing cards in his hand and doesn’t get the rules of the game.

Comment by Honeybear Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 2:06 pm
Point of Information:

To become effective before the following June 1, legislation approved between June 1 and December 31 requires an extraordinary majority in both chambers.

To become effective immediately or at a date established in the bill itself, legislation approved between January 1 and May 31 requires a simple majority. If the bill is silent on an effective date, the new law takes effect on January 1.

Because the voting requirements do not relate to the subject matter of the legislation, the General Assembly could approve a FY 16 budget– authorize spending during the current fiscal year– after January 1 with a simple majority. In essence, the action would be the same as passing a supplemental appropriation, a fairly common practice, to shore up areas where not enough money was allocated in the first place. In the current instance, the “supplemental” appropriation would be to augment the current zero-spending levels.

Charlie Wheeler

Comment by Charlie Wheeler Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 2:16 pm
Juvenal, excellent comment.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 2:17 pm
@Honeybear

Capital projects are the grease to political wheels… and probably the next hostage after, or maybe even before, a budget gets passed. To be clear, though, in the past, basically everybody has loved capital projects.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 2:18 pm
As RNUG pointed out earlier, I doubt very much the governor is interested in capital projects in the current labor environment.

Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 2:31 pm
===Capital projects are the grease to political wheels===

After what Rauner did to Carbondale’s water park, I’m not really sure how much trust I would put into a capital spending plan either.

http://thesouthern.com/news/local/communities/carbondale/suspension-of-funding-shuts-down-work-on-carbondale-splash-park/article_3c0225ae-41f7-5ebe-b7c1-bbf5e6ad92d8.html

Comment by Anon Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 2:33 pm
My community college is working on the assumption that even if a budget is agreed to tomorrow (ha!) the community colleges will not get any state funds for FY16. We will have to try to live off reserves. For collar county colleges, like Oakton and Dupage that have obscene reserves, they will be ok. For those of us down state it will be much harder. I have already heard a rumor that one community college deep in S. Illinois may not be able to open in January.

Comment by G'Kar Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 2:36 pm
–’His response was, ‘Don’t count on it,–

Wait, a hostage just got shot didn’t they?

Comment by Honeybear Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 2:51 pm
Thank you Charlie Wheeler.

So it sounds like we won’t have a true FY16 budget, but possibly some type of supplemental that appropriates funds to the mostly unfunded GRF.

I don’t get the January date that the Governor is giving. Does he think his turn-around agenda is going to be easier to pass with a simple majority? Or is he planning on dropping his agenda in January? If he isn’t going to drop his agenda and will veto any supplemental approp, then it will still need a super-majority to override. Or perhaps he meant January of 2019.

Comment by A Jack Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 2:54 pm
The fantasy that Rich mentions, that Rauner will “reward” Democrats by allowing them to raise taxes, reminds me of a Danny Rostenkowski story. During one of the federal budget fights, Republicans told him, in effect, “We’ll let you raise taxes if you let us increase defense spending.” Rosty: “We’ll LET you raise taxes?? We’ll let you raise TAXES??”

Comment by perry noya Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 3:11 pm
It doesn’t appear that Rauner is “winning” in Ann Williams District. Crain’s is reporting that Greg Goldner lost another candidate: http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20151023/BLOGS02/151029903/the-story-behind-a-candidate-who-didnt-run

Goldner is denying involvment (of course).

Comment by Charlie Foxtrot Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 3:24 pm
The community colleges generally are way better off then the state universities when state money is delayed or reduced. This is because a smaller percentage of their total budget is state money to begin with. A lot of the community college’s money comes from local property taxes.

Comment by DuPage Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 3:42 pm
===because a smaller percentage of their total budget is state money to begin with===

That’s true, but a whole bunch of their federal adult education money hasn’t been released. Big problems likely ahead.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 3:46 pm
Community Colleges do have an advantage over state universities but I would not say we are “way better off.” As Rich just mentioned, we are not getting any Federal Grant, like Perkins, money that flows through state. At my college about 20% of the students receive a MAP grant. Almost all down state community colleges have said they will not be able to substitute college money to pay for MAP this time around. We still get about 13% of our funding from the State. While we will not close if we do not get state funding, there will have to be some painful cuts to the services we supply.

Comment by G'Kar Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 4:16 pm
I was not aware of that until now.

Comment by DuPage Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 4:18 pm