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It’s still behind a subscriber firewall and there’s no data available yet even to them, but Rasmussen Reports has a new poll in the governor’s race.
Gov. Blagojevich leads the pack 44-37-14.
Once again, here are all the latest polls:
* 44-37-14 - Rasmussen, Nov. 1 (500 LV)
* 45-37-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 30 Nov. 1 (434 LV)
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31 (625 LV)
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29 (600 LV)
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26 (800 LV)
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22 (578 LV)
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22 (603 LV)
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15 (500 LV)
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15 (600 RV)
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 7:45 am
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I still don’t see 1 out of every 7 voters punching the ballot for Rich Whitney.
Comment by Nickname Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 8:15 am
Looks like this thing has stabilized with Rod getting 40-44% of the Vote, JBT 37-40% and undecided less than 10%. Looks like the people telling the pollsters that the are voting for Whitney will be the kingmakers come next Tuesday.
train111
Comment by train111 Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 8:24 am
positive ad may be paying off for Judy. She gets this up 2 more points and the Greens fall (which they will) we could have a closer race than what these polls are letting on.
Comment by Tom Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 8:30 am
The numbers tell me that the Governor will be elected on November 7th. The key for the Governor is Get-Out-the-Vote, especially in the city. I do not believe the Green party candidate will get as many votes as is shown in the polls, albeit those people who say they are going to vote Green are good liberals. People do not like to waste their vote on a person who is not going to win; nonetheless, I’d say he gets 3-4% with the rest of his support voting for the Governor. Independents are split in this state, with most going Democrat (according to the mean avg. of all polls), so it should be a very exciting election day. I wish the election were held over the weekend, so more people could vote (or like Oregon-30 days to vote by mail). Let the election day be “frantic!” This election will show the Republicans and the country that Illinois truly is a Blue state.
Comment by SilverBackDemocrat Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 8:36 am
It looks to me as though the governor is loosing support by the day right now. The question is are there enough days left?
Comment by leigh Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 8:51 am
Silverback Nails it; I can see Rich Whitney geting more than 4%.
Talented people are needed in government - pick a party. Choose the Greens - great. Let’s see some Green Aldermen ( we have many in Chicago that act like have ‘little Green people’ ancestors- Joe Moore is Tops with the Rosewell types)Village, Township, City Council members and mangers, work from theold grassroots as it were - build a local organization - somewhere - unstead of doing the Quantum Leap “I Can Save This Country” nonsense every electio cycle - ‘Why do they not have the ‘Tin-Foil Hat Progressive Revolutionary Anti- Porch-Sitting Party’ listed in the League of Women
Voters WTTW Debates? My GAWD ! How can youhave a faird and open electio without them!’
Hell, I don’t know. Works for me though.
Comment by Pat Hickey Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 8:53 am
Judy is gaining momentum each and every day. People are liking her positive commercial with Gov. Jim Edgar. Also what’s important to remember that a vote for the green party is a vote for Rod. Republicans across the state that are thinking of voting green need to remember that on Tuesday. Do we really want Rod as our governor for 4 more years?
I think the governor’s race is going to be closer than any of the polls have suggested. In the end I think we will find out on the morning of November 8th that the headlines on newspapers across the state will read
“Governor Elect Topinka!”
Comment by Illinois is #1 Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 9:16 am
Pat Hickey wrote, “build a local organization - somewhere - unstead of doing the Quantum Leap “I Can Save This Country†nonsense every electio cycle”
The Green Party has been doing exactly this. There are Green Party locals throughout the state, and many of them are running local candidates (Remember, one of the Key Values of the Green Party is Grassroots Democracy.
The problem is that Democrats and Republicans have written state election law in such a way that it literally FORCES a party to run a candidate for Governor if they want to have any chance of being successful in the future. By law (10 ILCS 5/10-2) earning 5% of the vote in the Governor’s race is the ONLY way that a party can become legally established statewide, and within every political subdivision therein; and this allows the party to compete on a level playing field in all of those local races.
Pat Hickey also wrote, “‘Why do they not have the ‘Tin-Foil Hat Progressive Revolutionary Anti- Porch-Sitting Party’ listed in the League of Women
Voters WTTW Debates?”
Simple. They’re not on the ballot. It’s not easy to get onto the ballot in Illinois, and it is rare for a new party to be able to do so. The state has a definition of what it means to be politically viable, and that’s the standard that’s used in order to gain access to the ballot. Now, you may think that standard is too low; but I can’t say that I agree with you, with somewhere around 50% of all legislative races having unopposed candidates in the last election cycle. We need MORE competition in our political marketplace of ideas, not less.
Comment by Squideshi Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 9:20 am
I believe what we are seeing here is the result of a calculated gamble by the Blagojevich campaign. His managers had to have known that he would take some initial heat for dodging the debates and chose to go that route anyhow, saving the Governor from having to deal with potentially embarassing questions but PRIMARILY depriving an underfunded Topinka campaign of a free forum to showcase JBT and her thoughts. While deciding this, Blago’s folks also knew that they were sitting on a campaign war chest so bloated it exceeds the GNP of most third world nations; plenty with which to own the airwaves and batter and malign an opponent who lacked the cash to reply in kind. It worked out pretty well; Blagojevich is in my living room so many times every night that it feels like he lives here, and he has repeated his “Topinka is the root of all evil” mantra so many times that my dog in convinced JBT invented the cat. Topinka has payed the price for this in the polls short-term, which is to be expected. Her “You could make Christ look bad if you spent enough money doing it” was a terribly unfortunate metaphor, but her perception is 100% correct. George Ryan - if he was a candidate in this election and had access to cash like Blago’s - would also likely be leading in the polls. Meanwhile - public and media attention spans being what they are - the heat over skipping the debates has all but completely dissipated. The gamble has been paying off.
Now it will get interesting. Blagojevich could delay Topinka’s message, but he couldn’t entirely prevent it from getting out, and the narrowing poll margins reflect that; sixteen point leads are likely anamolies which will not come again. The gamble has entered its final stage, and the TRUE Governor’s race - “Topinka vs: The Clock” - is on. Whether she can overcome the gap in the time she has left to do so is anyone’s guess.
Before you dismiss this, please consider that Blagojevich is continuing his advertising efforts unlessened and without pause. If HE truly believed he was up by 15 or 16 points why continue to spend all that money and why not conserve it to fund his future political aspirations? And why has his taxpayer funded campaign organization - the Illinois Government News Network - gone into high gear? This week alone it has issued twenty press releases, high even by Blago’s standards, about anything they can think of. Look at some of the meaningless stuff they’re announcing just to show gubernatorial activity; I expect by Election Day he will be announcing a call for softer toilet paper in state facilities and proposing legislation to extend free health insurance to squirrels. Anything to keep the name out there…
At the end of the day this will probably be a horse race after all. The poll numbers indicate it, and for all his public smugness the Governor has always known it!
Comment by Casey Jones Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 9:43 am
I heard on the radio today two county clerks from Repub heavy counties in Southern Illinois say that early voting and absentee voting are really high. One said that turnout could be 70-75 percent. Is the interest this high all over? I thought turnout would be down in most areas. Blago may need a high turnout in Chicago to offset higher than expected turnout elswhere. I still think he will win but it may be closer than many expect.
Comment by Southern Ilinois Democrat Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 9:48 am
A big vote coming out of the city is not going to happen in this election. Congress is what is bringing out the voters and Chicago has no contested races. If anyone thinks that Chicago voters are racing out to vote for Todd Stroger they are mistaken. Congress is the hot issue.
Comment by Garp Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 10:45 am
The polls have not “stabilized”. ‘rad’s numbers have stagnated. Judy’s are on the upswing. This election will be close, and if it is close enough, downstate will carry it for Judy.
Comment by HoosierDaddy Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 12:35 pm
Garp, no time in recent history have I seen Congressional races drive turnout. People generally could care less who there Congressperson is. Presidential elections drive turnout, as do some statewide races. And, in Cook County, countywide and citywide black-white reaces drive turnout.
Comment by steve schnorf Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 1:57 pm
Steve, you’re wrong on that point. 1994, Dem turnout slightly down, Repub turnout slightly up. All driven by congressional elections.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 2:12 pm
Steve -
I find myself in rare disagreement with you. There are several white-hot Congressional races this year, in 6, 8 and 10, where turnout will far outpace the rest of the state.
Roskam, McSweeney and Kirk are proxies for the President in this race, and folks will be weighing in on whether the country is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction. The last SurveyUSA polls had Bush’s job approval at 36-63 in suburban Cook and 39-60 in the collar counties.
Republicans will be working furiously to turn out every one of those 36-39%, and Democrats will be fighting to turn out everyone else.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 2:13 pm
Balgs had about 470,000 more Cook County votes in 02 than Jim Ryan. Dynamics are different with Whitney in the mix. I’d have to agree that the Cook County race will drive up votes there, both back and white. Does Topinka or Blags benefit or is it a wash?
Comment by smack-o-cratic Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 2:22 pm
[…] H/T Rich again. […]
Pingback by ArchPundit » Blog Archive » Rasmussen 44-37-14 Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 2:28 pm
steve schnorf,
I am not sure what you mean by recent history but this election is a rather unique scenario.
The country is in an unpopular war and the Democrats and Independents are a comin’ out in contested congressional races. You can take that to the bank. I also think the Repubs are doing everything in their power to keep control of Congress against-what I consider to be-an irrisistable force.
The problem some of the Democratic candidates with questionable ethics might have is that these dems and independents are not the type that listen to their precinct captain and will be splitting the ticket with reckless abandon.
Comment by Garp Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 3:21 pm
Question: Is either the Trib or Times coming out with a final gov poll this weekend?? A close poll in the Sunday paper would make things interesting. The Copley poll has people in Springfield all shook up this week.
Comment by Max Maxwell Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 6:43 pm
I was planniing on voting Green, but now have changed my vote to Judy. This is one Democrat of many who are very disappointed in the present administration. We wanted true reform in state government. He lied!
Comment by So Blue Democrat Friday, Nov 3, 06 @ 6:46 pm
Garp,
The city is energized and ready to come out and vote for Todd and Rod. Look for a high turnout in crucial areas to bring these candidates home. the organization may be dead in your ward but not in the wards that count.
Comment by Bill Saturday, Nov 4, 06 @ 6:11 am
Is is prophetic or scary to hear Bill talk about dead and voting?
I understand the early vote right now is leaning strongly Repub, but I assume Bill and crew lock up the dead and often vote before the end of Tuesday.
Comment by Southeast Saturday, Nov 4, 06 @ 6:33 am
Last night I talked to my brother, who lives in Addison, in the Duckworth-Roskam district. He has been getting dozens of automated calls per day concerning that and other races, and told me he has gotten so frustrated with them that on at least one occasion he gave a wrong answer — saying he’d vote for a candidate he was NOT voting for — just to ’stick it’ to them. I suspect he is not the only person who has done this, so perhaps some of these polls are being skewed just because people are getting fed up with the calls!
Comment by 'Lainer Saturday, Nov 4, 06 @ 6:52 am
Another thing. My brother said he’d gotten a personal visit from a rather oily precinct captain who urged him to vote straight Republican. REPUBLICAN? That seems odd for the Chicago area.
Comment by 'Lainer Saturday, Nov 4, 06 @ 7:00 am