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It’s probably worse now

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Illinois
Polls

* Hardly a surprise…

More than half of Sangamon County employers report the state budget deadlock — now in its fifth month– has begun to hurt sales and profitability, according to a fall survey released Monday by University of Illinois Springfield.

The Economic Outlook Survey also shows a 22 percent drop in expectations for the overall, local economy from the spring survey. More than 260 companies and not-for-profits were surveyed from Sept. 28 to Oct. 15.

* From the report…

Respondents were asked about the type of effect (large negative, small negative, neutral, small positive, or large positive) the state budget impasse is having on seven different aspects of their organization or firm: gross revenue/sales, profitability, on - hand cash, potential hiring, capital investment, total number of employees, and overall firm status. As seen in table 7, more than half of respondents report that the current state budget impasse is having a negative effect on their organization’s gross revenue/sales (53.8 percent) and profitability (51.0 percent). In addition, 46.1 percent of all employers in Sangamon County report that the state budget impasse is having a negative effect on the overall status of their firm.

When asked, “is there any other way that the budget impasse has impacted your firm,” respondents mainly speak about consumer confidence and uncertainty, the lack of funds they are receiving from the state government, and the stress it is putting on both employers and employees. Responses differ slightly between employers from different economic sectors.

For example, a private sector respondent stated th at : “Consumer confidence in t he economy is the largest problem for my firm. If the governor is able to accomplish [it] , then it might be better for Illinois’ in the long term. People are afraid that they are going to lose their job therefore they are not spending any money.”

Another respondent from the non-profit sector reported, “It has reduced our ability to serve children. It has increased the community’s need for support but decreased our ability to meet that need.”

Finally, a public sector respondent stated, the “impasse has stopped state employees from traveling to the capitol.”

The accompanying table…

Keep in mind that some of those interviews took place over a month ago, and things have gotten significantly worse since then.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 12:28 pm

Comments

If I thought I was going to:

* possibly be out on strike or locked out

* facing a income cut

* may have draconian health insurance increases

* not get a raise

I wouldn’t have any confidence and wouldn’t be out spending money either.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 12:40 pm
It is worse.

Beyond the impact on the state’s most vulnerable, State government is spinning it’s wheels. It’s like much of State government is in the Illinois State Museum mode. Employees show up for work but can’t travel, administer programs, work on construction projects, etc.

What a needless waste.

Comment by Sir Reel Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 12:41 pm
Don’t worry employers, Rauner and Maisch say “hang in there”.

Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 12:47 pm
Rauner has completely Scrooged Christmas in Illinois this year.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 12:55 pm
===“impasse has stopped state employees from traveling to the capitol.”===

That is the one net benefit for the rank and file state employees I talk to. LOL

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 12:57 pm
We elected the guy who openly planned to leverage crisis. This is the result.

Comment by slow down Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 12:59 pm
Wait a minute…the economy isn’t growing?! I’m shocked! We cut taxes by $6 billion almost a year ago (including for those large corporations that create all our jobs) and we’re starving the government beast (we cut that wasteful stuff like school construction and jobs training). What else should we be doing?

Must be those darn unions that are holding us back…

Comment by Bull Moose Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:02 pm
Bull Moose FTW

Comment by Roadiepig Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:05 pm
@Bull Moose

=We cut taxes by $6 billion almost a year ago=

Actually, we INCREASED taxes by 25%. The temporary government tax windfall expired, but there was NO tax decrease.

It’s not just semantics..

Comment by Arizona Bob Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:11 pm
There will be some major store closures in Illinois right after the holidays. Christmas will be a bust for retailers and the store lay-offs will be shocking.

There are a lot of businesses praying for a Christmas miracle this year.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:11 pm
@Arizona Bob

Taxes were higher in December 2014 than they are now. That’s a decrease, plain and simple.

Comment by Bull Moose Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:15 pm
Wonder how this compares to Blago moving a lot of jobs to Chicago. I think maybe that had an adversarial impact on Sangamon County.

Comment by anon Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:16 pm
Rauner campaigned on a pledge to make Illinois “the most compassionate and competitive state in the nation.” His actions as Governor have displayed the antithesis. I sometimes wonder how he sleeps at night.

Comment by And I Approved This Message Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:22 pm
==Actually, we INCREASED taxes by 25%==

Wow. You must’ve spun yourself into a pretzel to come up with that one. Those of us that are good at math would give you a failing grade.

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:25 pm
What a revelation. I wonder how many of those surveyed still think the Gov is doing a fine job.

Comment by pool boy Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:29 pm
Don’t worry. When Rauner busts the unions and all the state jobs are turned into 12/hr contract jobs, the owners of those contacting companies will buy thousands of vehicles, eat out at all the restaurants, and spend all their profits at the local shops. It will be the same as now except their will be no greedy Union people.

Comment by Tuesday's Pizza Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:32 pm
AZ Bob, you illustrate to perfection the conservative bubble.

Comment by Jorge Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:39 pm
Anyone whose income is tied to our state government or it’s pension systems is and has been nervous for quite some time. Public employees and the work they do for others is under siege. None that I know are spending as they would have a few years ago. That doesn’t sound like consumer confidence and if it hurts our state economy, well then, I guess the state is sowing what it reaped. Individuals have to protect themselves and their families.

Doesn’t sound hopeful that Rauners grand plans are working out, are they?

Comment by AnonymousOne Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 1:42 pm
Let’s see Demo, the state income tax was 3% and they increased it 67% temporarily to 5%. It is now 3.75%, or 25% higher than it was before the 67% increase.

I didn’t make the original post but you should understand he is correct. The state has pulled in a lot of juice.

Comment by anon Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 2:03 pm
My perspective is as one who has been employed by the State since the later part of the Thompson administration. The level of job insecurity being expressed by most “rank and file” workers, including middle management, is by far the worst I’ve ever experienced. No surprise that this translates into decreased consumer confidence.

Comment by kitty Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 2:04 pm
== but you should understand he is correct==

Whew. Another math wiz.

Tax was 5%. Now it’s 3.75%. 5% is always higher than 3.75% in the math I learned.

I guess our education system really is failing.

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 2:09 pm
The budget impasse has stopped me from purchasing a new vehicle this year.

Comment by Mama Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 2:31 pm
In time for the holidays, thanks to Governor Rauner and Speaker Madigan. Ugh.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 2:55 pm
==I didn’t make the original post but you should understand he is correct. The state has pulled in a lot of juice.==

25% more juice every year than the state was pulling in just five years ago.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 2:59 pm
I would like to know who the 4.6% were that had a positive revenue impact from the impasse. Bondholders?

Comment by thechampaignlife Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 2:59 pm
And Demo, I think you skipped stats and rational thinking for classes in Lit from the 15th Century and How to Better Think as a Liberal.

Comment by anon Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 3:22 pm
So let me see if I understand this. Rauner thinks you improve the economy by cutting jobs and salaries.

Ok.

Got it!

Comment by Jack Stephens Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 3:39 pm
@AB:

Corrected for you:

We expanded Welfare for the Wealthy by 25% in January of this year.

Bruce gets a 50K check on the 1st of each month. Thats about what the average ‘Merican makes in a year.

Comment by Jack Stephens Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 3:41 pm
Jack, if it was easy to get that $50K check each month, go ahead and achieve it. He showed on his tax return that he paid taxes of about 31%. That pays for a lot of things the less fortunate need and use.

Comment by anon Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 3:57 pm
@Dem
=Tax was 5%. Now it’s 3.75%. 5% is always higher than 3.75% in the math I learned.

I guess our education system really is failing=

It apparently failed you pretty badly, especially in economics as well as math.

I’ll write this slowly so that you can understand it.

There are continuing expenses and “one time” expenses. The increase from 3% to 3.75% is a continuing expense for taxpayers, while the increase from 3.75% to 5% was a one time expense which expired once its term was over, much like a bond or mortgage.

What you are claiming is akin to a person whose expenses go from $60K per year to $90K per year during a year in which they buy a car for $30K then claim when they only spend $65K the next year that they “decreased spending”, instead of the economically accurate statement that they increased base spending by $5K.

In retail, this is called “bait and switch”. That’s where a store increases its prices by 20%, then shortly thereafter has a “sale” where the price goes back to normal and claims a 20% “price reduction”.

In private business that’s illegal.

Apparently in government it’s the standard way of doing business….

Since you obviously have no knowledge of economics and accounting, I’d suspect you have an accounting government job, correct?

Comment by Arizona Bob Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 3:57 pm
===Actually, we INCREASED taxes by 25%. The temporary government tax windfall expired, but there was NO tax decrease.===

According to the Illinois Department of Revenue fiscal year 2015 monthly revenue report for the first quarter of FY 2016:

“Individual income tax receipts finished the first quarter down $699.5 million compared with last year, but $240.6 million above the IDOR forecast. The revenue decline is a function of the tax rate decreasing from 5.0 to 5.75 percent effective January of 2015.”

http://tax.illinois.gov/aboutidor/taxresearch/FY2016-Q1-QuarterlyRevenueReport.pdf
See chart 5 of the report.

Comment by Hit or Miss Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 4:01 pm
I know we all can’t be as smart as you Bob, but I learned greater than and less than a long time ago in grade school. Where I come from getting less revenue one year compared to the prior year is a decrease. You want to compare it to 5 years ago. In the world I live in it’s year over year. I don’t care if you agree with it or like it but that’s the way it is. You’ve got a narrative to sell. I get it. I’m just not buying what you’re selling.

Oh, and I did just fine in my economics and math classes thanks. And I consider myself a pretty good professional in my work. I don’t question your engineering skills. Don’t question mine.

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 4:21 pm
I agree with RNUG’s comments concerning spending. Retirees and current employees I know are cutting their spending because things are so up in the air when it comes to raises, state pensions, and the Governor’s proposed “draconian” health insurance costs, etc–
My wife and I had considered buying a new car but decided to keep the older one for a few more years because we don’t know what this governor is going to do when it comes to our insurance and pensions. We also have stopped giving to local organizations such as United Way, the Salvation Army, the local shelter, etc. We have also have talked about moving to another state where the cost of living is less. We just feel caught , held hostage by the governor’s game playing.

What I don’t understand is why there are not more Republican legislators demanding that the governor follow the advice of Governor Edgar and sat down with the Democratic leaders and start working on a budget. His “turn-around” proposal can wait; the budget has to be a priority or this state is going to be crippled economically beyond repair
Doesn’t this Governor understand that it is the middle class spending that stimulates both the local and state economies?

Comment by JB Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 4:43 pm
JB, has the democrat game playing the last 12 years or so concerned you this much?

Comment by anon Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 4:59 pm
JB,

State retirees, other than any dependent health insurance changes or some co-pay increases, should feel pretty secure after the Kanerva and SB-1 rulings. I know I do.

HOWEVER, a lot of the retirees I know (myself included) are helping their kids / grand-kids survive full time expenses in this part-time / mostly minimum wage economy. Seems I hear another story every week at church. Retirees are helping family with all kinds of expenses, including providing cars, housing, child care, etc. … and that’s why some of the charitable giving by retirees has dropped.

IMO, that’s what is driving a lot of the retiree spending cutbacks and angst. I already detailed what the workers are feeling at 12:40pm.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 6:07 pm
I agree with both JB and RNUG. A lot of people are feeling caught and held hostage by Rauner’s Reign of Terror. I’ve had several friends who were “scared out of their jobs” this year and retired before they were ready. I’m trying to hang in for at least one more year, precisely because of what RNUG said. I have grown children who are struggling to make it and they need help from Mom and Dad more and more often. I’m trying to pay off bills before I retire and my income gets drastically cut. Charitable giving?? Not this year, I’m sorry to say!

Comment by Ma'at's Feather Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 7:12 pm
cut state workers pay, freeze salties etc and you will see this economic downturn profilerate, especially in s il where a latge part of the economy is fueled by state workers. state workers dont burn their money in firepits or lock it in investments… tuey spend it in our communities and keep our economic engien turning.

Comment by Ghost Monday, Nov 9, 15 @ 8:00 pm
Ghost,

You mentioned that in southern Illinois a large part of the economy is fueled by state workers.
The same thing is true for some college towns such as mine. My community economically would collapse without our university. The university is the largest employer in our town and its employees(both current and retired) drive the economy And yet the district the university is located in is represented by a Republican rep and senator who apparently are in lockstep with the Governor They have also received campaign money from this Governor

Comment by JB Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 12:23 am
@Dem

=Oh, and I did just fine in my economics and math classes thanks. And I consider myself a pretty good professional in my work. I don’t question your engineering skills. Don’t question mine.=

So you ARE in an accounting government job? I thought I was being facetious…..scary.

Comment by Arizona Bob Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 7:05 am
Always arrogant aren’t you Bob. Ever wonder why NOBODY on this board EVER agrees with you. Think about that.

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 7:33 am
Oh, and bite me.

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 7:34 am
==has the democrat game playing the last 12 years or so concerned you this much?==

It must be tiresome for some of you to play the victim all the time.

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 7:35 am
Demo, there are people who agree with Bob, but instead of posting, they are usually laughing at your posts.

Oh, and take some accountability for your party. If a person gets shot up and thrown over a cliff, they ARE the victim.

Comment by anon Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 8:07 am