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Rauner again peels off Dunkin

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The Illinois House on Tuesday is expected to vote to limit the governor’s ability to change requirements for people receiving state childcare assistance, despite a compromise Gov. Bruce Rauner’s administration announced on Monday in hopes of scuttling the bill.

However, a key Democrat — state Rep. Ken Dunkin — is expected to side with Republicans on Tuesday, fueling tensions between the governor’s office and House Democrats.

On Monday, Rauner announced he reversed restrictive requirements he put in place over the summer that severely reduced state day care assistance to the working poor. His changes meant that a mother of two must earn less than $838 a month in order to receive subsidies. The compromise language raises that requirement to more than $2,700 a month. Saying he reached bipartisan compromise on the matter, Rauner deemed SB570 moot. Rauner opposes the bill, saying it too severely restricts the powers of the governor. Politically, Rauner does not want to be put into the position of vetoing day care assistance bill. […]

“He helped set the table to get the child care deal done,” a senior administration official told POLITICO Illinois. “The fact is that thousands of families are eligible for child care today because of Ken Dunkin’s efforts on these important issues.” […]

“The governor and I came up with an agreement last week,” Dunkin told POLITICO. “What occurred is, I suggested he talk with the House and Senate sponsors and get their take on it. It’s a good agreement so there’s really no reason for that bill to be called.”

Governors have a lot of tools. Pat Quinn didn’t use many of them, Rod Blagojevich bungled his use of them, but Bruce Rauner appears to have found the instruction book.

And scream all you want about Dunkin, but he’s positioned himself pretty darned well here.

We’ll see what Madigan does now, but if he can’t get any Republicans to vote for this childcare bill today, his king may be in check.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 8:35 am

Comments

I’d like to hear more from Hutchinson and Booth on this than from Dunkin. Ken is playing the political game for himself. Hutchinson and Booth are working for their constituents.

Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 8:40 am
Sure wish the “Great and Powerful Wizard” called Dunkin, had used his magic political skills a few months ago.

What’s up with that?

Comment by cdog Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 8:44 am
“And scream all you want about Dunkin, but he’s positioned himself pretty darned well here.”

And positioning oneself is, of course, the primary goal of a elected official in a representative democracy.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 8:48 am
The letter yesterday that Century Club president Ken Dunkin is the major influencer in Rauner government policy sent the obvious signal that Ken Dunkin was never going to be “green” on any vote today hurting Gov. Rauner.

The math is real easy; Can’t get 71? Peel off One?

Peel off one is far easier. The Rauner Crew, that’s Caucus politics played at the highest level.

Two points that shouldn’t get lost, however;

The “crying” former GOP House members, take note, the Democratic Raunerite “saved” the program(s) because Dunkin has worth to Gov. Rauner and you GOP Raunerites are chits, and really are just lights on a board, and we’ll all see that, again, today.

Ken Dunkin leveraged his position for his best interest, with IllinoisGO money to backstop him. Unlike the “NY Misunderstanding” Ken Dunkin is very purposeful today and out in the wide open as the first Democratic Raunerite. IllinoisGO is designed to make more.

Can Rauner use this Democratic Raunerite for good or “evil”, meaning, can the governor use these opportunities to look for the “doable” or use the Century Club president to derail helping people and keep hostages?

The second Ken Dunkin’s name was in a letter with the Governor’s letterhead, the fate was sealed today, no matter the crocodile tears. The GOP GA matter only as colors on a tally board for Bruce Rauner, but Ken Dunkin, he’s a more valuable chit, and the chit doesn’t mind one bit.

This is watching politics played well, the Rauner Crew should enjoy it, as much as I enjoy watching politics played well.

It was.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 8:52 am
Agree with OW on his points. I would give credit to that $100,000 a year chief of staff to Diana Rauner, though.

Comment by Bleeding Heart Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 8:55 am
The frat boys are finally learning. Stage a tactical retreat and tell the home folks it’s a victory. As Willy says, Rauner will own the results even though he fought it tooth and nail.

The big question is whether this new insight will lead to an end to the impasse.

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 8:55 am
===I would give credit to that $100,000 a year chief of staff to Diana Rauner, though.===

Why?

You can make a strong, very strong in fact, political case that the “Rauneriting” of Ken Dunkin mattered far more than any influence the President of Ounce of Prevention had, or any influence that that President has(d), including a role as First Lady and a state employee with that title.

It’s Caucus Politics played extremely well. Nothing more.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:01 am
Willy, I forgot to put the /s

Also, why didn’t Rauner do this deal months ago before his poll numbers were in the basement?

Comment by Bleeding Heart Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:03 am
Illinois runs on Dunkin’.

Comment by Bigtwich Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:05 am
I don’t know your snark, so I apologize for missing it. Sorry.

To your question,

===…why didn’t Rauner do this deal months ago before his poll numbers were in the basement?===

Why retreat and shape the retreat as a victory when you have the “numbers” to keep hostages? You don’t.

Between finally learning that “Governors own”, the sagging to poor poll numbers, and the fear of this(these) overrides passing, the Rauner Crew pulled the Caucus Politics lever correctly, and at the right time.

You don’t write a letter praising the Century Club president as the catalyst for a hasty retreat when you numbers aren’t “upside down”. Ken Dunkin is a life raft, a willing one, and the math works beautifully.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:10 am
I’m sure Madigan is fuming over Dunkin & Rauner’s little partnership. The big question is, can Madigan get any of the House Republicans to cross the aisle to his side?

Comment by Mama Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:11 am
This bill is not about “the children”. If Bruce or Mike cared about them we never would have been in this position to begin with.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:12 am
We should ask Ken Dunkin why he caused months of suffering for this. Why did innocent people suffer while Ken and Bruce got cozy together?

Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:14 am
What happens if Madigan decides to pass on Dunkin’s deal?

Comment by Mama Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:15 am
Ken Dunkin is more than a life raft. At the moment, he is one of the most influential men in Springfield in determining what bills pass and what bills fail.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:15 am
“Ken Dunkin is more than a life raft. At the moment, he is one of the most influential men in Springfield in determining what bills pass and what bills fail.”

Has there ever been a better reason to call an emergency Con Con?

Comment by Give Me A Break Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:20 am
===Ken Dunkin is more than a life raft. At the moment, he is one of the most influential men in Springfield in determining what bills pass and what bills fail.===

If that’s snark, it’s pretty good.

If you actually believe that, goodness gracious, Ken Dunkin is a life raft. Ken Dunkin is a light on a board Ken himself can leverage for his wants and needs to help Rauner get his desired House Chamber results.

You think Ken Dunkin will tell Bruce Rauner “No” anymore?

Give. Me. A. Break.

Rauner and Dunkin need each other, Dunkin is only influental if Rauner “needs” him to be. Century Club president Dunkin has no say. “Why?” Dunkin can’t “go back” to Dem colleagues at his whim, and be “warmly” embraced. Not after New York. Not after that Letter.

Nope.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:22 am
===Give. Me. A. Break.===

lol, sorry - Give Me A Break -. I was using the phrase, not your handle. Hadn’t seem your comment.

My bad.

OW

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:25 am
===We should ask Ken Dunkin why he caused months of suffering for this. Why did innocent people suffer while Ken and Bruce got cozy together?===

Well, “dating” takes time…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:27 am
Instead of Tea Partiers, we may soon see Dunkin Do-Nuthins’ if the yellow buttons are pressed today. Those that are contemplating “Present” should be prepared to wear that shirt.

Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:27 am
Rauner got smart. Time to give up the hostages that were tanking his numbers. He needs only one hostage, Ken Dunkin, to render Madigan powerless.

Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:29 am
OW: Just honored to have you mention my “handle”. I’ve now concluded my work for the rest of the year and will retire to my home for deep reflection of the honor bestowed upon me. LOL

Comment by Give Me A Break Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:30 am
==Why retreat and shape the retreat as a victory when you have the “numbers” to keep hostages?==
Yes! Rauner absolutely retreated quite a bit yesterday on three items (DON score; daycare; unemployment insurance). He’d call it a willingness to compromise.

I’m wondering if his recent retreat is because (a) he realized his positions were quite unpopular or (b) he’s more reasonable than some think or (c) He’s trying to appear more reasonable in order to win the upcoming meeting with the four tops?

Comment by Robert the Bruce Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:31 am
To the post: Won’t Madigan simply call the bill anyway, pass it, make R’s and Dunkin vote present/no, make Rauner veto it, and have that issue for mailers for the next election?

Comment by Robert the Bruce Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:34 am
I have no words for Ken Dunkin. Maybe I do, but they’re not appropriate here.

Such a shame.

Comment by no shame Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:34 am
===I’m wondering if his recent retreat is because===

Subscribe, but here’s a hint: All of the above.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:35 am
Don’t get it twisted. Bruce and Mike have caused these months of suffering. Other pieces are moving on the chessboard, but they are the two “Kings”.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:37 am
Rauner promised transparency in government, and now we have it. Nothing could be clearer from this deal with Dunkin. Rauner was in full retreat, and he got Dunkin to shield him, not from the rout itself, but from the appearance of being routed.Equally as clear is the fact that Rauner’s turnaround agenda has nothing to do with the affordability of these important programs. We don’t need right-to-work or other restrictions on unions to take care of kids, the elderly, and the disabled. We just need a governor who puts them above his hatred for working people and their unions

Comment by Truthteller Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:40 am
Rauner owns this, otherwise, Rauner would’ve sat back and let all this transpire… passively.

Nope. Rauner’s choices before yesterday… dictated Rauner’s choices that transpired yesterday, and how it may play out today. The politics say its so.

- Give Me A Break -, very funny, a tip of the hat.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:42 am
= = Governors have a lot of tools. = =

Heh! That sentence may have more truths than originally intended.

Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:49 am
Just being curious and cynical at the same time, but who else in the House Dem caucus could Governor Rauner have “picked” to carry his water/message?

Anyone from suburban toss-up district is going to need Speaker Madigan’s and DPI’s help fending off an Illinois GO and HRO challenge, so they would not be his “liaison”.

Any of the downstate members are either ardent supporters of SB 570 (i.e. Booth or Ammons) or are adamant opponents of Rauner in general (i.e. Hoffman or Bradley).

And how many of the Chicago area reps would have been willing to go to bat for Rauner? Probably not many.

I hate being cynical all the time, but a great deal of people in this business are in it for themselves so I am hesitant to just bash Dunkin and leave everyone out of the townhall beating.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:50 am
- Governors have a lot of tools. -

Pretty good description for Dunkin, just have to keep an eye on the rental costs.

Comment by Daniel Plainview Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 9:52 am
Maybe One isn’t the loneliest number?

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 10:02 am
Could it be the Rauner team has outplayed the all powerful Speaker? Waiting for the ‘he’s a chess master’ comment, you know, how he’s actually working a plan none of us can see that just looks like he’s losing.

Comment by Lincoln Lad Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 10:03 am
OW–

Serious question: Do you really think Madigan, or any Democrat for that matter, was counting on Dunkin prior to yesterday’s folds by Rauner? I highly doubt it.

The game all along has been to put House GOP incumbents in a box: vote against the Governor, or vote against your district. I really don’t see how that dynamic changes today.

All that happens when the bills get run is either House GOP rack up more politically bad votes, or the Gov takes it on the chin. House Dems get to vote for legislation to help constituencies, the Governor folds, and the House GOP get strung out. Again.

TL;DR: Failing to see the brilliance in this new GOP “plan”

Comment by ILPundit Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 10:04 am
If his plan is to lose a consecutive series of conflicts with Rauner, some by his own design, then Madigan’s plan is working flawlessly.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 10:10 am
===Do you really think Madigan, or any Democrat for that matter, was counting on Dunkin===

Yep. They were. He’s a cosponsor.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 10:13 am
” - Anonymous - ” (ugh)

Shouldn’t the goal be to make sure people get what they need? Isn’t it about serving the people?

Rauner retreated. Rauner used a life raft. Rauner protected his interests while in retreat mode…

… and the people most hurt are now better off than they were yesterday.

Are ya paying attention in between breaths through your mouth?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 10:13 am
= If his plan is to lose a consecutive series of conflicts with Rauner, some by his own design, then Madigan’s plan is working flawlessly. =

If Madigan is reelected as IL House Speaker in January 2017, his plan will have worked flawlessly.

Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 10:15 am
===Yep. They were. He’s a cosponsor.===

The letter yesterday mentioning a cosponsor wasn’t an accident or a “nice gesture”

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 10:16 am
Talk about Gov or Speaker wins or losses may actually be two different things.
The Speaker is working an issue by issue battle. Trying to claim victory, declaring the Gov to be in retreat.
The Gov is working Election Day 2016. His goal is to begin the process of minimizing Speaker power in the House long term.

Comment by Lincoln Lad Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 10:34 am
===The Gov is working Election Day 2016. His goal is to begin the process of minimizing Speaker power in the House long term.===

…at the cost of serving Illinois’ most vulnerable, and… ignoring his job as governor.

Got it. Thanks.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 10:37 am
With all due respect Rich, I haven’t talked to a single Democrat in leadership that has considered Dunkin a reliable vote since the AFSCME vote. Co-Sponsor or not, you can’t count on him.

Comment by IL Pundit Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 10:44 am
Ken Dunkin your table is ready. Maybe a few other members of the House will follow Dunkin’s lead.
Madigan will consider these as a personal challenge on him. This may be a 1st chink in Madigan’s armor.

Comment by Mokenavince Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 11:12 am
So Rauner completely reversed his own actions, eliminating the need for a bill designed to limit his actions, and we’re supposed to hold hands and sing praises about his understanding of the tools of governing?

I can only imagine the possibilities if this is the standard.

Comment by Daniel Plainview Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 11:13 am
The Republican legislators plus Dunkin do not a majority make. Where does that leave Rauner on Jan.1?

Comment by Truthteller Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 11:28 am
=== The Republican legislators plus Dunkin do not a majority make. Where does that leave Rauner on Jan.1? ===

With a veto pen!

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 11:42 am
Is Dunkin going to be the endorsed Democrat in the 5th? If not, who is opposing him?

Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 12:01 pm
What saddens me is all the impoverished folk of Ken Dunkin’s district that have no chance of improvement. I could actually understand Dunkin if there were trade offs with Rauner to secure benefits to his poor district. Can anyone name one benefit? No, I suspect that the benefits of relationship and perfidy are accruing to only Dunkin. That’s what’s awful about this business. You can gofund individuals all you want but it doesn’t atone for the destruction of the support systems for thousands, tens of thousands.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 12:26 pm
An interesting note from Politico:

– State Sen. Toi Hutchinson was key to negotiating a day care compromise on the Senate side. But the governor didn’t single her out. To the surprise of those negotiating closely, a senior administration official named a different “unsung hero,” — Dunkin.

Comment by Archiesmom Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 12:30 pm
It will be more than a side show when Rauner Team somehow makes a deal with someone, anyone with more earned credibility in the House. Cannot believe there were no other potential Dem partners for them on this issue.

To change the frame: Question whether the bills would be a proper Legislative restraint on Executive rule-making, which is already reviewed by a JCAR process.

Comment by walker Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 3:37 pm
==It’s a good agreement so there’s really no reason for that bill to be called.==

Speaker Madigan called it.

That won’t help end this ==war==.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 4:03 pm
=== Question whether the bills would be a proper Legislative restraint on Executive rule-making, which is already reviewed by a JCAR process. ===

Rules derive their authority from laws. The more ambiguous the law, the broader the discretion afforded to agencies. If legislators want to constrain that discretion, they pass an amendatory bill that provides more detailed guidance on the agency’s authority.

JCAR performs a legislative oversight function intended to ensure rules are consistent with the enabling statute. It can vote make objections to which the agency must respond. JCAR can also vote to prohibit a rule, but that has to be affirmed by the legislature as well.

A bill is cleaner in terms of expressing the intent of the General Assembly. That’s not to argue a bill should be passed in this particular case. I would hope that Rauner and the GA could build off the compromise and end the impasse.

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 4:19 pm
I just don’t understand why people are claiming that Rauner is compromising. Rauner started the fire and the house began burning down. Once the fire reached Rauner he put it out to save himself from being burned. Call it what you want but it’s anything but compromise.

Comment by CrazyHorse Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 4:30 pm
==Call it what you want but it’s anything but compromise.==

idk. He did walk back the changes yesterday even before the vote, though he did not have to. iirc, 570 would also be the first time such restrictions were put on the Governor.

It was a gesture of peace imho, that was apparently refused by Speaker Madigan.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 4:47 pm
Norseman: We agree on the process and legal roles.

The judgment on whether this would be the best way to handle rule-making in this case, rests on concepts of good government. I tend to favor a giving the Executive ample room to manage, and to hold the office fully accountable for the outcomes.

Comment by walker Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 4:52 pm
What Honeybear said…

Ken has always been about Ken…

Please hold off nominating him for sainthood…

Bruce was taking it on the chin in MSM for punishing the poor and needy…he did this for himself as well…

Two peas in an odd pod…

Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 6:58 pm
Re-reading previous comments, yes. Exactly what Honeybear said. He’s not voting (or non voting) his district.
Not even side benefits. He’s voting Ken.

Suggestion: caucus just freeze him out. Don’t acknowledge him when he is around. The lack of attention will be too much for him to deal with.

Comment by low level Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 7:11 pm
http://wuis.org/post/watch-daycare-providers-confront-rep-dunkin#stream/0

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 7:37 pm
@7:37 PM was me.

Dunkin kept saying that next week the 162 will rise back to 185. Interesting video to watch. Thanks Amanda!

Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, Nov 10, 15 @ 7:44 pm