Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Tables turned on Madigan

Posted in:

Illinois

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

“He seems so done with it all,” said one top Republican earlier last week about House Republican Leader Jim Durkin. “He hates this,” said a close Durkin pal not long afterward.

The overtime session’s constant battles with the House Democrats and super-strict marching orders from Governor Bruce Rauner were wearing Durkin down, said some folks who know him. “This summer was pretty nasty,” he admitted to reporters last week.

But that changed by Tuesday. Asked to describe the progress of the previous few days on a scale of one to 10, a cheery Durkin replied, “Eight, nine, 10.” He seemed back on his game.

Meanwhile, House Speaker Michael Madigan clearly had a very bad week.

Madigan, who has long been considered the most successful Democratic politician in Illinois history, had hoped to finally knock down Rauner’s solid GOP legislative wall on Tuesday and force House Republicans to defy their governor by voting to rescind Rauner’s slashing of the state’s child-care program and social services for the elderly and disabled.

But the rug was pulled out from under Madigan. With the approval of Democratic Senate President John Cullerton, some Democratic legislators cut a deal with the governor to restore funding to those programs in exchange for killing the legislation. Madigan’s bills went nowhere.

So instead of a defeated Durkin, we saw an angry Madigan. And while the speaker was obviously upset at one of his own members – Representative Ken Dunkin – for working with Rauner and killing the bills in the House by refusing to vote, Madigan was also said to be pretty steamed about a possible conspiracy involving Rauner, Cullerton, and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.

A top Madigan ally pointed to the personal relationship between Rauner and Emanuel, the number of contributors to Emanuel’s campaign who also gave to Rauner’s, and the allegedly Democratic IllinoisGO PAC, which was founded earlier this year to promote “pro-growth” Democratic policies but looks to many like a Rauner front group.

The source also highlighted Emanuel’s ties to IllinoisGO’s top consultant, Greg Goldner of Resolute Consulting – whom Madigan called out by name during a press conference earlier this year for using the same rhetoric as Rauner in his PAC’s mailers targeting Madigan’s members. The Madigan people say the PAC is backing 15 candidates against House Democrats, although people who know better than I can find no actual evidence of this.

And it’s no secret that Emanuel lives in Cullerton’s district, and that the two men are close.

That’s a lot of paranoia for one day, but, man, were they ever upset.

The mayor’s people flatly denied that they had anything to do with Madigan being triangulated by Rauner and Cullerton. Yes, Emanuel canceled a scheduled city-council hearing on the funding crisis at the child-care program, which was designed to put even more pressure on Rauner. But that was done because Rauner had asked that they show a little good faith after Emanuel spent a solid week attacking the governor in the media.

As for Goldner, they said, he’s a Mayor Daley guy and isn’t really an Emanuel guy. “Greg has been out of favor with the mayor and his team for a long time,” insisted one longtime Emanuel insider last week.

And they insisted that there’s no way they’re involved with Democratic primaries against any of Madigan’s members. They know that Madigan would declare all-out war on them, and they ain’t suicidal.

And Cullerton was probably just doing what Cullerton always does; the man truly loves making deals.

Rauner had threatened to sit for two months on the bill to fix the child-care program if it was sent to his desk and then veto it in January, which would’ve undoubtedly put hundreds of smaller child-care providers out of business in the meantime. A deal with Cullerton’s blessing made sure those providers stayed afloat, and it was backed by the provider community.

The legislative bottom line is that Madigan has been thwarted at pretty much every turn by Rauner. The overtime session has succeeded at collapsing the governor’s poll numbers, but Madigan hasn’t been able to take advantage of that in his own chamber, with his own super-majority.

The one thing that Madigan hates above anything else is showing weakness. He most definitely didn’t look strong last week. He’s simply not accustomed to that. His next move should be fascinating.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 9:09 am

Comments

Madigan’s next move should be to allow the governor to continue retreating from months of destructive hostage-taking and refrain from engaging in that reckless practice himself.

The willful sabotage of “leverage” strategery is an epic mess that is going to require a lot of heavy-lifting to clean up.

After that, maybe we can get back to the vague promises of “structural reform” that apparently are so wondrous their practical benefits cannot even be articulated beyond empty slogans.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 9:25 am
Great stuff, Rich. Having Leader Durkin feel better is one thing, you explaining why, that’s what makes your work so good.

To the Post,

Between IllinoisGO, Rahm, the ownership of the GOP Caucuses, and even President Cullerton understanding the need of a deal superseding the “Triangulation” premise, Speaker Madigan is sitting out there alone… less “one”

The “one”, Ken Dunkin, made, in one fell swoop, IllinoisGO a real threat that exists to destroy the HDems, and Dunkin made the fruits of isolating Madigan a worthy strategy in trying to make “Fire Madigan, 2.0″ more that t-shirts, bumper stickers, or $2 million in wasted TV Ads.

Ken Dunkins, the “Democratic Raunerites” with the Raunerite Caucus are one… one vote closer… to Rauner owning 1/2 of the General Assembly… because Rauner “can”.

The ripples of Ken Dunkin bring Madigan to losing, albeit by creating the Blagojevich Dream, but isn’t that just “sweet irony” for Rod? Rod’s plan would’ve worked, Rod just couldn’t get a Caucus to own, and a Democratic legislator to… name his/her price.

It will be up to Rahm and Cullerton how fast, and to what extent, they are willing to remove Madigan from equations. It’s up to Rauner to get to 60, adding one more Raunerite at a time.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 9:27 am
It’s not a conspiracy, Messr Madigan.

It is everyone else moving on to peace talks and cooperating for the benefit of the state while he remains fixated on re-establishing dominance over the state and everyone else.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 9:39 am
Great column, Rich.
A perspective to consider…
Rauner backtracked and ran like Chicken Little and offered what is graciously referred to as a “compromise” after looking like an evil leader who put people last.
It is unfair to characterize Madigan as having the tables turned on him. A couple of years ago, Madigan did not have a supermajority of 71. Now that Dems to have a supermajority, he is supposed to be superhuman?
Further, historically, Madigan would not call a bill when he knows would lose. He could have pressed sponsors to hold the bills which he knows will not pass.
Rather, this exercise of presenting bills has a higher purpose which the pundits are missing:
1) Madigan, as he has stressed on many occasions, does not have ultimate power over his members:
2) Putting Dunkin’ on display as a Raunerite forces him to bask in that glow for all to see.
3) The remaining 70 have never been more united, and Madigan did not even need to twist their arms to get them there.
4) He is still a couple of steps ahead.

Comment by Austin Blvd Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 9:48 am
Madigan is badly off his game and continues making unforced errors. Does he even know why he is taking “hostages” at this point? Rauner signaled a clear framework for talks, while Madigan wants hostages because… ?

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 9:54 am
===Rauner signaled a clear framework for talks, while Madigan wants hostages because… ?===

You mean by retreating from being first to take hostages, and even after “Hang In There!”, Rauner retreated from the untenable… you mean that?

What is this “framework” of what you speak?

Buzz words say little, ” - Anonymous - “

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 9:57 am
Can we give the over the top “hostage taking” rhetoric a rest with the events in Paris this past weekend? It is not helping

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 10:07 am
” - Anonymous - ” (ugh)

If you look for MY comments, you can use the search key and look for my handle.

” - Anonymous - ” is just a lazy way not to own anything you say, while, hopefully being lost with all the other ” - Anonymous - ” commenters.

You gonna respond to my questions, or feign your anger about your laziness more?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 10:23 am
In the agenda for the meeting of leaders and governor, Rauner wants people to speak to about what they are “passionate.” And first up he wants Madigan to speak to budget AND tax increases, attributing Madigan’s focus to those two topics, attempting to make Madigan wear the jacket for a tax increase. We might find Madigan’s response or reaction to that wording and that agenda item “fascinating.”

Comment by My New Handle Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 10:30 am
Spitballs at a battleship Anonymous Willy. HA

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 10:37 am
Lead off homer by Word.

Comment by walker Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 10:49 am
Do not feed trolls.

To the Post,

The only good thing, if you call anything good, is the dismantling of the fake super-majority thingy and “Speaker Madigan and the legislators he controls… ”

Rauner is building his own Raunerite Caucus, and Rauner will control that Caucus, even with “Yellow” on the board, or NVs on the records.

Fascinating.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 10:50 am
Agreed with Austin Blvd.

It was already known before that Dunkin was open to a “buy-out”. Rauner used his previous business experience to do so.

Calling the vote reinforced the narrative that Dunkin has “sold out”. That won’t play well next March.

Comment by low level Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 10:55 am
I think it is MJM’s continued drum beat that the budget is the number one problem facing Illinois and that non budget items are making this more difficult that is forcing Rauner to start to move. MJM understands how much money Rauner has and how hard the republicans and Rauner are going to go after the Dems. MJM, is trying to protect his members and force votes that give the Dems plenty of ammunition in 2016. I am fascinated at how quickly so many want to sing the praises of Rauner as he just is begining to realize the mess he has created.

Comment by Facts are Stubborn Things Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 11:15 am
Madigan cares less what Rauner wants. If Rauner has the votes, he should pass a bill. Otherwise try governing for a change Bruce.

Comment by HaroldJones Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 11:19 am
Rauner is trying to dictate the order and subject matter of the leaders? This is probably a throwback to his method of running his former businesses.
I want to hear about WHO requested the income tax NOT being extended, as the revenue “was not needed”. Who took the hostages? Who missed the state’s actuarially required pension contributions? Who was at the wheel when the budget bus went into the ditch? I don’t Rauner will want to talk about the problems that Rauner himself has caused.
I think this meeting is going to just be used by Rauner, like his campaign commercials, blaming Madigan, unions, public employees and retirees.

Comment by DuPage Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 11:19 am
We are witnessing the slow end of an era. He still has a few moves up his sleeve, as does Peyton Manning, but time is unstoppable. He may even win a championship on his way out, but it is always hard watching the decline of the great ones.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 11:25 am
If Madigan is a great one, he should realize it isn’t always about him…would love to be a fly on the wall when his caucus talks about him when he isn’t present.

Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 11:55 am
LOL! One Dem rep is peeled off and all of a sudden it’s the end of an era.

If there really was all this disenchantment with MJM surely more Dem reps would have followed Dunkin- especially when Rauner has deep pockets. Dems from around the state, wealthy ones from the north shore to poor districts in East St Louis all voted yes. That’s the real story.

One guy, who had a reputation to begin with, declines to vote and it’s the end of some era. Laughable.

Comment by low level Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 12:00 pm
Dunkin is only the latest in a series of missteps by MJM. That many of those mistakes and losses were of his own making is even more troubling.

Time is unstoppable, even for a man in his 70s simultaneously leading a political party in the fifth most populous state, herding cats in the dem caucus, flanking the governor, and working as speaker of the house, all without using email or a wireless phone. People slow down, but Time never does.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 12:49 pm
I feel so sorry for Madigan He ran the State aground, and now he is angry because some people are looking for alternatives.

Comment by Downstate Hack Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 12:50 pm
Even Dunkin himself isn’t saying that! LOL
Try again.

Rauner wants alternatives but only could recruit Dunkin.

Comment by low level Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 1:44 pm
Given what Dunkin has said about pay raises in the past, I’m sure a downstate GOP is happy to have a Chicago machine hack like Dunkin associated with them.

Comment by low level Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 1:47 pm
Most people get a kick out of it when Madigan get stymied. This move by Dunkin gave Cullerton a chance to show Madigan how to make a deal. I would bet Durkin is grinning ear to ear.

Comment by mokenavince Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 4:26 pm
I think it would be futile to expect a Primary Challenger to defeat Dunkin. Dunkin’s constituents will look at him as a hero for brokering a deal. WVON practically hailed the man as such. Not exactly the PR many had expected. Basically, come Primary, the inner politics just will get lost in the equation. The Dems probably have no choice but to run a challenger, but I see more negatives coming Madigan’s way if Dunkin survives. Nonetheless, I am surprised and shocked Madigan would allow Dunkin’s allegiance to be so prominently displayed. Presently and moving forward, this action invites trouble. Further, I don’t see the opposite arguments of Madigan outing Dunkin as valid.

Comment by anon Monday, Nov 16, 15 @ 7:47 pm