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A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.

The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party’s share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.

* Daily Herald: If the analysts who track national politics for a living are to be believed, Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert has two chances of holding onto power Tuesday: slim and none.

* Obama: I regret deals with Rezko

* Bernie predicts guv wins re-election, Democratic sweep

* Door to door, face to face, race goes to wire - Duckworth, Roskam go to visit the voters

* Washington: Dems are excited about voting this time

* Stroger woos churchgoers as Peraica works the streets

* Kristen McQueary: My daughter turned 1 in October. I recently received a lovely card in the mail from Gov. Rod Blagojevich and the first lady congratulating me on her birth and informing me of my right to breastfeed in public. Thanks, but we’re on milk and solid food, guys. Makes you think there’s an election around the corner or something.

* Miller: Polls show voters never believed much Blagojevich ever said. But they do believe what they see and hear, and the Blagojevich campaign masterfully used Topinka’s own words against her. “I love you dearly,” she said to George Ryan at an emotional State Fair event in 2002. The now infamous video clip of her speech, along with the reportedly electronically altered sight of her bobbing her head up and down as Ryan spoke at the podium was replayed about a billion times on TV. The Blagojevich people have built almost their entire campaign around that clip, which makes the case for them that she was “George Ryan’s treasurer.”

* Robaugh: Who you gonna vote for?

* Comptroller debate turns ugly

* Tribune: The Committee for Retention of Judges in Cook County, a joint effort of the judges and their supporters, raised $247,900 this year to support the 71 Circuit Court and appellate judges who will appear on ballots Tuesday.

* Libeled by a campaign ad? Probably not - Few candidates sue; those who do usually lose

* Garza picks up Jackson endorsement

* For campaigns, home is where the rent is cheap, lease short

* Former President Bill Clinton… has recorded radio ads and automated phone calls asking voters to support Blagojevich on Tuesday’s election.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 8:36 am

Comments

Pops Staples gave GOP Garza a ringing endorsement 24 big hours before the election. What is Tom Dart supposed to grab the phone and start dialing for peace with Rev. Shakedown? Always a giggle.

‘In The Interests of Equanimity and Humility and Unity and Central America Solidarity - it would be -hoove the young Mr. Dart to search looooong and hard - long and hard - into the darkness of his heart and find the call for repentance to my Combine and find himself a place, not a big place mind you, in My RAINBOW! He’ll get a nice billboard with Jr. Staring steeley-eyed behind all OVER I-57 - Do I hear you Calling?

Comment by Pat Hickey Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 8:50 am
Rod is still running way too many negative ads for someone who is supposed to be far ahead. He’s running scared. The non-Whitney supporters who have said they will vote for Whitney will go against throwing their vote away when they get into the booth and vote for the only person who can truly change Illinois government over the next 4 years - Judy Barr-Topinka. I predict it will down to the wire. It ain’t over till it’s over - and it will be early tomorrow morning before it’s over and we know who the Governor of Illinois is.

Go Judy.

Comment by Jechislo Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 8:58 am
The breastfeeding story is another prime example of the Governor using state tax dollars to promote himself. This is occurring throughout state government. I hope some honest politicians of both parties pass some laws in the next General Assembly to ban such blatant political practices.

Comment by So Blue Democrat Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 8:59 am
I got a recorded call from John McCain for Topinka. That trumps one from an ex-president for a corrupt governor.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:23 am
Let’s not forget that Gallup still has dems with an 8 point lead nationwide among likely voters. Nice of the press to energize the R base…

Comment by Anon... Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 9:43 am
Tom Dart should be delighted about Jesse Jackson supporting Garza for Sheriff.

I wonder what deal he cut this time.

Now that Sheahan is out of office maybe Jesse will be successful in finally extorting that office.

Comment by No nickname Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:51 am
Should those churches that allow politicians to actively campaign from the pulpit lose their IRS 501c(3) tax exemptions?

Comment by Anon from BB Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 10:51 am
Rich,
You finally got your “too cheap to be corrupt” line into print. Nice work. You sure have used your column (and blog) over the last year or so to slam the governor and do everything you could to help Judy. It will all be over soon and we can look forward to another four years of strong leadership from Rod despite all the ranting from columnists who found themselves outsiders with a new administration who decided to speak directly to the people instead of through reporters and columnists.
Your column points out a very important fact that should have been obvious. The camera does not lie. That was really Judy being her obnoxious self talking about loving the former governor and veterans funerals. She is not fit to be governor, never has been, and would not have ever been treasurer had it not been for the stranglehold the repubs held over this state until Rod broke it in 02.
It has been fun participating in these discussions and I hope to continue, once and a while, discussing the issues as we move through the second Blagojevich administration.

Comment by Bill Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:04 am
If you believe Rush Limbaugh, whenever Clinton campaigns for another Democrat that Democrat winds up losing. And it seems to have happened with a few other candidates out there. But that only if you believe it.

Comment by Levois Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:08 am
Bill,

Rich has just been reporting the facts. The truth hurts sometimes, doesn’t it?

Comment by So Blue Democrat Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:08 am
Bill, please, I’ve been slamming the governor for a LOT longer than a year.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:12 am
Rich, your column hits a point. Voters all complain about negative ads, but many completely bought into Rod’s $10 million smear of Topinka.

Comment by Bubs Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:13 am
So Blue,
Columnists don’t report facts they write their opinions. Fortunately, most of the voters know the difference.

Comment by Bill Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:14 am
Rich,
I know but we mostly just ignored it until the season started.

Comment by Bill Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:15 am
Also, Bill, George Ryan used to whine all the time about what I wrote about him.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:17 am
Bill,
From what I’ve read, Rich is a non-partisan “slammer”. He was reporting when Ryan’s administration was being investigated by the Feds just as much as he’s reporting investigations on Blagojevich and Company. Problem for the current governor is there seems to be more Federal investigations on him than there was on Ryan. Keep telling yourself Rod’s an honest man. I’m sure he just happened to have inadvertantly surrounded himself with a bunch of crooks.

Comment by Walking Wounded Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:22 am
Also, Bill, I don’t think it was mostly ignored. But thanks for playing. Drive safely.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:24 am
One last thing.. Bill, were you at the City Club event? Because that’s where I used that line and joked that I needed to find a spot for it in a column.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:26 am
Yes I was. Excellent memory!

Comment by Bill Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:29 am
Thanks. Well, that narrows it down considerably. lol

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:43 am
The Dan Hynes line “You want me to do your job in addition to mine?” is the best line I have ever heard him utter.

He can retire and go home now.

Bill: I hope you’re at least getting a paycheck from Rod to write that ridiculous drivel. I’d hate to think you actually believe that garbage. But there are crazies everywhere so it shouldn’t surprise me.

Comment by Bob o Link Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:51 am
Fellas, Bill and his hero “GoverNOT Hairdo” (props to Little Egypt) do not maintain a close working relationship with the truth or the facts.

Bill, hope you are as close to Quinn as you are to Blago.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 12:38 pm
Bill,

I compare the Blago administration with the Bush administration on the issue of “facts”. The mouthpieces of the Blago administration state that there are no ties to political donations and state contracts. It is all innocent transactions.

The Bush administration states that the timing of the Hussein conviction has nothing to do with the Tuesday election.

Comment by So Blue Democrat Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 12:44 pm
I have read Bill’s defense and confident boast of what is going to happen in this election and have actually thought maybe he is right.

For example, I think the city vote including the black vote will be down. I base this on what I perceive to be a lack of enthusiasm for son of Stroger; they know he is not the father and a desire of several prominent elected officials in the black community to want to run against Peraica in four years.

Bill informs me that I am incorrect and that the wards that count are gearing up for huge turnouts. I thought there were games being played and Jesse Jackson backing the Republican for Sheriff confirms it to me.

I know the entire North side of the City has been told to only get out the good dems because they can’t control the vote. If the West side holds back, you are left with South and Southwest pumping up the city vote, hence, low city vote totals.

Comment by Garp Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 2:57 pm
AA,
Are you trying to hurt my feelings? Everything (well almost everything)that I post is what I really feel and believe. Just because it may not agree with your warped version of reality doesn’t mean it is a lie. We will see tommorrow if the electorate agree with me or you.
If I am ever in Brown’s(highly unlikely) Ill buy you a cold one and we can laugh about the election.
In the meantime try not to be discouraged as the returns come in. Maybe you guys will get another chance in another 25 years or so.

Comment by Bill Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 3:36 pm
Our internals are looking great for Rod and decent for Todd. What can I say? Ill guess we’ll find out for sure tommorrow. Meeks and the Thornton and Rich reg dems are pushing hard for Todd and that is also good for Rod.
I don’t know what Jr. is doing and I don’t think he does either. Maybe he wants Garza to run on his “rainbow” anti-daley ticket.

Comment by Bill Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 3:42 pm
Bill,

You a great man to have in the foxhole. The Haircut was lucky to have you -

‘If he be not fellow with the best king, thou shalt find the best king of good fellows.’(Henry )V

Comment by Pat Hickey Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 4:18 pm
Bill - In the Russel Crowe movie “A Beautiful Mind” the main character finally realized that the delusional beings that he saw were not aging. That is how he finally figured out that they were only in his mind.

Hopefully, you will figure out that Public Official A is not worthy of your single minded devotion.

Comment by huh? Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 5:42 pm
Tomorrow’s best photo would be Blago standing with his hands above his head in a victory sign and some great reporter puts “I am not a crook.” caption under it.

It’s only a matter of time and we can wait.

Comment by Disgusted Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 6:23 pm
Rich, do you think maybe the jockeying for post-Blago jobs has begun. The U of I has a job description out there, which just appeared on the scene maybe two days ago, with an application deadline of 11/8, one day after the election. The job description matches the qualifications which Mr. Chalmness, that stellar example of sports reports, also known as the head of the IL Terrorism Task Force, needs for that state position. Is he maybe looking for ANOTHER cushy job. Anyone have any thoughts on this???

Comment by Curious Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 6:42 pm
That’s “sports reporting” - sorry - fingers moving too fast.

Comment by Curious Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 6:43 pm
Pew has GOP up by 5% among all whites, 10% among white men, 2% among white women, non Hispanic whites by 5% and church goers by 14% looks as if the base came hom. It will be tough but looks as though they keep the house and Senate.

Comment by RAI Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 6:55 pm
Re: “Tomorrowâ€™s best photo would be Blago standing with his hands above his head in a victory sign and some great reporter puts ‘I am not a crook.’ caption under it.”

I will be so happy if I hear it announced late tomorrow (please let this not drag on too late, please) that Elvis has finally left the building. Or will be leaving shortly, that is.

I don’t know what Judy was thinking with the last-minute Cubs dig, there, but being that the North-side yuppies will probably go for Rod anyways, she’s gonna pick up the South Side, big time!

Comment by Angie Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 11:28 pm