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* Politico…
Good Wednesday morning, Illinois. We have first dibs on a new poll that asks Illinois residents about the state’s budget mess. It shows 35 percent of those surveyed point the finger at the Illinois Legislature and another 25 percent blame Gov. Bruce Rauner. The majority of those surveyed want government pensions cut (though respondents were only given four choices). And people overwhelming (81 percent) feel the state’s headed down the wrong track. […]
– This may shock you but — residents don’t want new taxes! The survey of 600 registered Illinois voters shows 66 percent want to plug the state’s $4 billion shortfall by cutting state spending.
– 15 percent support raising taxes.
– 3 percent backed borrowing, 4 percent wanted a combination of raising taxes and spending cuts and 1 percent supported raising taxes and borrowing.
As noted later in the story, the poll was sponsored by Americans for Prosperity Illinois. Yes, AFP is a Koch brothers group, but the state chapter claims it raises its money here. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies. Click here for the full poll. Crosstabs are here.
* From the poll…
3. Who do you think is more responsible for the wrong direction of the state, (ROTATE) Governor Rauner…or…the Illinois General Assembly?
26% GOVERNOR RAUNER
35% ILLINOIS GENERAL ASSEMBLY
15% BOTH (DO NOT READ)
1% OTHER (SPECIFY: _______) (DO NOT READ)
4% DO NOT KNOW (DO NOT READ)
This is a question asked of only those who said the state was on the wrong track. The question wasn’t about the “state’s budget mess.” It may seem like a minor point, but there’s more to this state’s problems than the budget mess, despite what Speaker Madigan says [/snark].
And even though more people blame the GA for the state’s slide than the governor, it ain’t by much. Add in the 15 percent who said “both” and you get half blaming the GA and 41 percent blaming the governor. He’s not owning it yet, but the GA isn’t the overwhelming villain here, either.
* Also, check out this question about household income…
26% UNDER $40K
24%^ $40K-$80K
40% OVER $80K
That percentage of households earning more than $80K seems kinda high, and the percentage earning under $40K seems a bit low so the answers may be skewed. However, the other xtabs don’t seem too off.
* Also, the majority of respondents clearly believes in magic beans…
Would you favor or oppose a proposal to close the state budget shortfall that would cut one dollar in state spending for every one dollar in additional taxes?
(IF FAVOR/OPPOSE) And, would you STRONGLY (favor/oppose) or just SOMEWHAT (favor/oppose) this proposal?18% STRONGLY FAVOR
38% SOMEWHAT FAVOR
15% SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
14% STRONGLY OPPOSE
14% DON’T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)56% TOTAL FAVOR
29% TOTAL OPPOSETo help close the state budget shortfall, which of the following programs and services would you prefer to see cut? (RANDOMIZE) (ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES)
53% GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEE PENSIONS
6% MEDICAID FUNDING
22% PUBLIC ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS
3% EDUCATION FUNDING
1% ALL OF THE ABOVE (DO NOT READ)
16% NONE OF THE ABOVE (DO NOT READ)
3% DON’T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
If you want a dollar for dollar tax hike/budget cuts, let’s see the cuts, because, regardless of what the majority thinks, cutting government employee pensions is not gonna work.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:39 am
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Why even bother with the pension cut question? The IL Supreme Court has ruled and clearly that’s not happening. Additional tiers may be created but what’s already “in the system” isn’t going anywhere.
Comment by Stones Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:43 am
The pension problem isn’t a problem according to the ILSC.
But… but… the pensions.
“But, but” the Constitution.
- RNUG - has been so valuable here and Rich having the Posts and the feedback has been important to get beyond the falsehoods.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:48 am
26% blame the Governor, while 35% blame the “General Assembly”.
I know this wouldn’t be possible, but it would be more useful if the poll put the name of the respondent’s local Rep and/or Senator rather than the generic “General Assembly”. I suspect the results would be different. The name “Bruce Rauner” appears on ballots. “General Assembly” does not.
Comment by Old Shepherd Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:48 am
If and AFP poll with those loaded or misleading questions shows the gov with only a 9 point advantage here, he’s in more trouble than I thought. That said, Dems have failed to educate people about the real situation, just like PQ did for years. Fairy dust won’t solve our budget pain. Better messaging please. Pretty please.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:50 am
They bother with that question because they still want to blame state employees for the financial mess we are in. I find it odd that respondents actually picked one branch of government to blame so overwhelmingly, as opposed to blaming them both. Usually people just say “they are all a bunch of crooks”.
Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:51 am
Thank goodness for the Pension Clause. But then without it I would probably have left state employment some time ago (you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows).
Comment by UIC Guy Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:52 am
– …the state’s $4 billion shortfall….–
You wish.
Where in the world did that pollyannish number come from?
Back in September, Comptroller Munger said the FY16 gap under current spending and revenue (and assuming higher ed, MAP and group health get approved) is $8 billion to $12 billion.
Try fixing that mess with just cuts at this late date (hint: don’t try, it’s not possible).
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:53 am
Cutting employee pensions is an easy response - most would feel that would be painless (no loss of services) and not impact them at all. Kind of like asking if we should add on a millionaire tax….
Comment by archimedes Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:54 am
The only reason the pension question keeps being asked is because (a) it’s red meat to a largely uninformed GOP base, and (b) they can raise money off the anger and sour grapes.
Same with Rauner and refugee question. It’s not about what he’s saying — or that what he’s saying will do any good — it because he can say it, whip up the base, and keep the angry money flowing.
Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:54 am
“Twitter-worthy” poll and answers. Will be used to AFPI’s own media devices. The questions and responses are stock. We’ve seen all them before, and they do not contribute to any in-depth solutions. A “scratch-off” poll.
Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:57 am
Good to see Natasha Korecki is as objective as ever. I always thought the Koch Brothers were more “astonishingly” than “incredibly” wealthy though.
Comment by nixit71 Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 9:58 am
22% PUBLIC ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS
Nice generic phrasing. TANF? SNAP? Housing Vouchers? All things funded by the feds. Child care? mental health? substance abuse treatment? I am guessing if they named individual programs, the willingness to cut would drop dramatically.
Comment by Montrose Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:01 am
The poll shows that respondents don’t know how our constitution works or how government works.
It reflects a consumer market mentality favoring Wal-Mart solutions for a non-Wal-Mart organization. They don’t want to pay more than they personally get from government, like they are ordering a Whopper at Burger King and have a 2 for 1 coupon.
Somehow the idea that you have to pay a little more for those who cannot pay has now become anathema to a majority of polled respondents. Instead of helping one another as citizens, it seems that a majority see themselves as shoppers of government services.
Worse, we don’t see any political leaders telling voters differently. We see a governor constantly appealing to “taxpayers”, an inadvertent statement that if you aren’t paying taxes, you have no rights. Rauner thinks Illinois should be run like Sam’s Club, with our property tax bill our entry into Illinois politics.
Respondents are acknowledging that they no longer believe that the goal of government is service to all. Just to themselves.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:04 am
They should reframe the question to say:
“If your pension was similar to the defined pension currently in place for state workers, would you choose to cut pensions to balance the state budget?”
I wonder what the splits would be on that one…
Comment by Captain Illini Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:05 am
The survey of 600 registered Illinois voters shows 66 percent want to have their cake and to eat it too.
Shocking news.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:06 am
Nixit, your hair-trigger victim sensor detects lack of objectivity…. where?
For crying out loud, AFP gave her the results.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:07 am
Sample size is okay but the coverage error in the sample is likely at least 10 points off given the very clear disparities between income brackets. We know people in higher income brackets don’t feel recessions as hard as people in lower income brackets (generally) so their opinions tend to be a bit different than one another. I think it’s safe to assume people in higher income brackets would likely have different opinions than those in lower brackets during the current situation… I’d take this poll lightly.
Comment by The Muse Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:08 am
People questioned why a Democratic supermajority had a very difficult time passing an income tax increase. It’s because many Illinoisans don’t want to raise taxes, and they’ve said so repeatedly in polls.
Illinoisans want to raise taxes on millionaires, but it’s just contentious enough that Democrats can’t pass this, and Republicans won’t vote for it.
This is a tangled mess, trying to get a realistic budget through the complicated political landscape.
I would ask that the folks who cry about cuts but don’t want to consider a realistic and fiscally-sound solution (including tax increases) to temper their outrage and to consider what is realistic.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:08 am
Montrose is right. I’ve been impressed by the unpopularity of the few cuts that Rauner has actually tried to implement.
Everyone (unless they think about it) wants spending cut, but ask them what specifically should be cut and it’s tougher. Actually make cuts and it’s tougher still, as people read stories about the hardship it causes and may even realize the people they know—God forbid!—are among the beneficiaries of the programs cut.
Comment by UIC Guy Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:09 am
Well, the governor was an experienced snake oil salesman. It was easy for him to switch to selling magic beans. And Illinois voters have been buying magic beans for a long time.
Comment by Keyrock Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:10 am
You would think someone would do a reality check on the questions asked before they start polling people.
Comment by GA Watcher Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:11 am
Garbage in, garbage out. It’s sad to see Natasha so eager for free content that she doesn’t even bother to provide any real analysis of what was “exclusively” given to her. Just noting who paid for it really doesn’t suffice. So, Politico Illinois is no better than some podunk town newspaper taking free slop from the IPI and showing no greater level of responsibility to its readers while polluting the public discourse. There’s a reason Charlie Pierce calls Politico Tiger Beat on the Potomac. Politico Illinois can be Seventeen on the Sangamon.
Comment by Willie Stark Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:12 am
== – 15 percent support raising taxes.==
The millionaire’s tax on a statewide advisory referendum got much larger support (65%). Its all in how one frames the question.
Comment by Joe M Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:13 am
Manipulation of data sets and survey questions is a dark art if there ever was one.
1) Look at the income of respondants and match that to the demographics of the state. Skews the numbers.
2)”This is a question asked of only those who said the state was on the wrong track.” Skews the numbers.
3)The what to cut question is so skewed it’s not even funny and presents an unconstitutional solution. My God
4)Dollar for dollar? Really? You might as well ask if the NASDAQ should be pegged to the gold standard.
Bottom line. I’m not saying that people are stupid. But they don’t know. Social media and the internet have given folks the impression that they are knowledgable and empowered enough to have a say in how things are run. Unfortunately the vast majority of the electorate are not well informed and ill equipped to engage in the deliberative/dialectic process that is governing. The people on this blog are the extreme exception to this. Even here we can totally miss the mark or be stupendously misinformed. So even engaging this so-called “poll” strikes me as similar to engaging trolls on this blog; sometimes you just can’t help it, sometimes it’s best to roll ones eyes and read the comments of trusted posters. Feeding or not feeding of polls to me is just as hard to figure out as the feeding or not feeding of Trolls. Regardless trolls and polls seem to be “winning” and I’m getting so sick of the misinformation.
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:14 am
Most polls show overwhelming majorities of registered voters want to go to heaven, but very few of them want to die.
Did we really need a poll to tell us that most people think we can cut out way to a balanced budget?
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:15 am
I for one am ready to see my tax bill rise if it will lead to a reformation of state finances- meaning( with the exception of touching pensions for existing participants) every recipient of State finances, employees, program participants, municipalities, etc, etc, will have to suffer program cuts, layoffs, benefit freezes, increased costs, the list goes on. Many will claim that the most vulnerable must be spared, but we are beyond that point. It is time to reach a consensus that the State is in dies straights and has no choice but to increase revenue BUT also cut spending across the Board
Comment by Sue Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:16 am
@Word - I’m merely quoting her article. But if hollywood-gossip tone is your bag…
Comment by nixit71 Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:16 am
Nixit, it’s Politico, not the New York Review of Books.
“Tone” and “objectivity” are not mutually exclusive.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:19 am
Is there someone out there who likes paying for their police protection, fire protection, library, child’s education via taxes? Don’t know anyone who loves paying but they sure do “think” it’s important to have these services. La-la land for some apparently. So many can’t connect paying for what you get.
Comment by AnonymousOne Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:19 am
==The millionaire’s tax on a statewide advisory referendum got much larger support (65%). Its all in how one frames the question.==
I could say the same for the millionaire’s tax. That referendum was never intended to stop at millionaires. It was just a backdoor attempt of eliminating the constitutionally-protected flat tax and eventually raising taxes on the 100,000-aires. Then the 70,000-aires. And so on.
Comment by nixit71 Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:23 am
Perhaps one reason the poll respondents don’t want higher taxes is they have not yet seen consolidation of the almost 7,000 units of local government in this state.
They have heard no specifics from the Democrats about what should be cut and how taxes should be raised, just broad talking points about a balanced approach.
Rauner has been more specific and at least according to this poll enjoys more support.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:24 am
The pension question has been settled, and I’m tired of talking about it. It does no good to try to explain, so my reply to all pension discussions from now on will be “Kiss my [tush] and pay my pension.”
Comment by PolPal56 Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:24 am
The question on pensions SHOULD have been:
Since the IL SC has taken pension reform for the existing workers off the table and new hires already face a drastically reduced pension, the existing pension funding shortage has to be paid for. This will require new revenue from taxes and fees. Which of the following taxes / fees do you support to pay the shortfall with all revenue raising being dedicated to the pension funds?
a) a sales tax on services
b) increased income tax on businesses, including eliminating all loopholes and corporate subsidies
c) increased flat income tax with a fixed percentage dedicated to the pension funding
d) taxing some level of retirement income, including Social Security over a certain level
e) a millionaire’s income tax surcharge, assuming it would pass a constitutional challenge under the flat tax provision
f) a graduated income tax with a specific portion going to pension funding
Somehow, I suspect the funding answer would have still been “magic beans” …
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:25 am
a so long as it happens to someone else poll…. shocking to see that people support doing things that cause economic harm to others but oppose it to themselves… shocked i say!
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:26 am
A number of journals and independent organizations describe Public Opinion Strategies as “a Republican polling firm.” Not surprised.
Comment by Joe M Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:26 am
Re why the pension question still gets included after the Kanerva and SB-1 rulings, I have to assume there are still uninformed citizens.
Maybe they’ll stop asking it after the Chicago ruling … but I’m not going to hold my breath.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:29 am
Hey don’t pick on Natasha…she scored world exclusive over Capt. Fax, IL Observer, Tribbie Katrina Wrap….etc.
It is a Koch Brothers poll so what can we expect?
The only problem is the wordin’ allows us to wrap Durkie and SenateLeader into the blame. Shame on pollsters.
Meanwhile IL voters seem to get what they want. SuperStar/Dunkin’ “victory” priced at $3 billion with no means of payment.
Comment by Anonin' Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:29 am
RNUG, “magic beans” is a good guess but there’s a chance your option “e” would be competitive.
Comment by Robert the Bruce Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:29 am
anyone who has been following the news this week has seen a lot of stories about health insurance premiums going up double digits. Their is room for state employees to pay more for this as everyone else in Illinois is
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:30 am
== Is there someone out there who likes paying for their police protection, fire protection, library, child’s education via taxes? ==
Like it? Not really, but I recognize it is the cost of having said services. My real objection to said taxes is when I see the money being wasted on insider dealing, no bid contracts to favored suppliers, and stupid lawsuits that could have been avoided with some common sense and competent management.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:33 am
@RNUG:
Either Steans or Goldner or both is suggesting a Tier 3 pension system.
I am not sure how they could possibly pass something even more usury than Tier 2, but perhaps you could enlighten us on the legal status of Tier 2 and legal challenge of a Tier 3.
Comment by Juvenal Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:34 am
Dollar for dollar is the only thing that will fly with the public by the time the state gets around to hiking taxes after everyone else has.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:34 am
RNUG- I wish the “powers that be” would head your wisdom.
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:34 am
It seems to me that taxing retiree income above a certain income would require a constitutional change. But I haven’t seen that mentioned.
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:35 am
@RNUG:
When will AFSCME realize that one of the best long-term fixes to the pension system is to deprivitize state services and bring all of those nonprofit folks into state government, paying into the pension system?
Comment by Juvenal Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:36 am
==Rauner … at least according to this poll enjoys more support.==
LOL. You’re kidding right? That’s your argument?
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:41 am
-My real objection to said taxes is when I see the money being wasted on insider dealing-
That and paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for outside contractors when very qualified and knowledgable state employees are left twiddling their thumbs.
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:41 am
regardless of what the majority thinks, cutting government employee pensions is not gonna work.
Government used to be “for the people”…now, not so much
Comment by tdoyle Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:41 am
Why would you even put cutting pensions in the poll when it’s not even an option that can be considered?
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:42 am
As a former township assessor, I am used to hearing people complain about paying taxes. With one such person, I started my usual spiel that none of us want to pay taxes but we all have a stake in good schools, streets …..
The property owner I was talking to, cut me off and was quite offended. He stated, “Wait a minute. Are you accusing me of not wanting to pay my taxes? I served in the military to protect our way of life - and how dare you accuse me of not wanting to pay my taxes.” The exception rather than the rule.
Comment by Joe M Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:53 am
Demoralized please direct me to the poll that says the GA enjoys more support than Rauner. I am sure it will be easy to find. I eagerly await your response.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:56 am
Moronic poll specifically targeting republican constituencies to attempt to defuse anti-Rauner sentiment do to gross mismanagement. That’s all it is.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:56 am
-RNUG-you forgot option g) do you favor a statewide ballot changing the Illinois Constitution changing existing pension benefits.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:57 am
Blue dog dem:
That’s not a viable option either. You still can’t go back and change what people have even with a Constitutional amendment.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 10:59 am
== perhaps you could enlighten us on the legal status of Tier 2 and legal challenge of a Tier 3. ==
“Tier 2″ is CURRENTLY legal as a (I think the term is) “safe harbor” for the State to avoid having the employees under Social Security. I need to note that some of the “Tier 2″ employees ARE covered by SS, so any future problems should not affect them. The people who might be affected are the non-coordinated members, mostly teachers, not currently under SS.
I see the future of “Tier 2″ playing out a couple of different ways. One would be a simple technical correction on the caps to make sure it stays in the “safe harbor” area. The other would be the State doing a shift of all (current & future) teacher pension funding to the local school districts. At that point, the State would be mostly off the hook for any future requirement to pay into SS; that would fall on the school districts. But while possible, I don’t see the GA abandoning the school districts to being forced into SS, so I’m betting on the technical correction when needed.
“Tier 3″ - It’s going to have to apply to ONLY NEW new employees or people who agree to VOLUNTARILY switch to it. Also, someone is going to have to codify / define that idea first. It’s going to be tough to get worse than “Tier 2″ and still meet SS “safe harbor” rules in a defined benefits plan. So whatever “Tier 3″ turns out to be, it will most likely be a defined contributions plan. That means the State will have to shell out hard cash each month into the DC plan … and the problem the State has now is shelling out hard cash into the DB plan, so where does the DC cash come from?
Not saying they couldn’t come up with it by offsetting some of the current “normal cost” of the DB plans. The devil is going to be in the details. If the employer match isn’t high enough, you’re back to the whole SS “safe harbor” issue for non-coordinated (no SS participation) employees.
And if the match isn’t high enough, who would even want to take the deal, even as a new hire? Although on second thought, if the goal is to hire Wal-Mart type employees, a bit better wages will probably get them to overlook the lousy pension. So as long as you don’t care about the quality of the employee or how long you retain an employee, a bad DC plan may work.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:02 am
If polls can’t be rigged, why do both parties conduct carefully worded polls to further their own agendas?
Much ado about nothing.
Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:03 am
- Demotalized -
Be careful, between - LP - and - bdd -, they have you chasing their strawmen.
I, however, enjoy you knocking them down…
To the Post,
Once again - RNUG - takes to task, not what the poll numbers “show”, but what can actually be done to make things better, and what is just not doable.
Thanks for that.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:05 am
== When will AFSCME realize that one of the best long-term fixes to the pension system is to deprivitize state services and bring all of those nonprofit folks into state government, paying into the pension system? ==
But … how then would the politicians get campaign contributions out of those people?
Seriously, a cost study should be done on which way is most cost-effective at delivering the services. However, my gut says the NFPs are probably more cost-effective.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:05 am
== It seems to me that taxing retiree income above a certain income would require a constitutional change. But I haven’t seen that mentioned. ==
Nope. That exclusion is not enshrined in the IL Constitution. And since it would apply to ALL retirees, I doubt a diminishment claim under the pension clause by government employees would be a winner although I could see a split decision, rather than a unanimous one, from the IL SC.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:09 am
Since pension-cutting is so popular, why stop with public pensions? How about this: ‘If you were a resident of the state in 2015 then you owe 25% of your 401(k) balance.’ Good plan, no? And spares the least well-off, who tend to have little or nothing in 401(k) savings. Raise a bunch of money too. Make it one-time only, so people don’t leave the state to avoid it.
Comment by UIC Guy Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:11 am
== -RNUG-you forgot option g) do you favor a statewide ballot changing the Illinois Constitution changing existing pension benefits. ==
No. Just didn’t see the point because you couldn’t make it retroactive to existing employees / retirees and you can always change things for new hires.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:11 am
-OW, …what actually can to make things better? Raising taxes always, and I mean always hurts the poor and middle class the most. Sales tax on services=penalty on poor and middle class. Property tax increase=penalty on poor and middle class. Sugar taxes=you guessed it. We all know good and well that the millionaires will escape this, and us common folk will feel the brunt of paying for politicians vote buying tactics.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:13 am
- Blue dog dem -
For most of my life (I’m a baby boomer), the poor and middle class have always paid a large portion of the federal and state taxes, although the poor do get some or all back via things like the EIC and various child credits. So the brunt usually falls on the middle class (whatever that is today). I don’t see it changing anytime soon. In fact, I see the burden getting heavier.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:18 am
Public Opinion Strategies = POS. Nuff said.
Comment by IllinoisBoi Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:24 am
Thanks - RNUG - for tackling the victimhood.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:31 am
This is proof positive that Illinois voters have not given up hope on the free lunch. This, not politicians, other than their pandering to this warp, is the root of all problems in Illinois. Up and until the wheels come off completely this is how it is going to be. It ain’t Madigan, it ain’t Rauner, it is us.
Comment by ottawa otter Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:31 am
-RNUG, my point exactly. This gives the RAUN Man talking points, but I know he doesn’t care about the middle class. We ALL must share in the pain, I don’t expect some retired corrections officer bringing home $36k/ yr to buck up some income, but I do expect some retired ex. Governor,or judge, or state senator,or retired college professor to give up more than most. And guess what , nobody’s gone do it on a volunteer basis.i know hundreds(yes,hundreds) of trade union members who are turning into republicans because they can’t handle the overall illinois tax burden any longer.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:36 am
== This is proof positive that Illinois voters have not given up hope on the free lunch. ==
Anyone who has ever sat through a timeshare pitch knows there is no such thing …
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:37 am
It is absolutely true that the middle class (whatever defines that these days) bears the brunt of taxation. Have you ever heard of an election where the upper class is even mentioned by running candidates? They are completely left off the hook yet we hear constantly about plans to give the middle class relief or help or whatever. The middle class is the cash cow of America, yet we fight among ourselves without looking at where other sources of revenue could be found.
Comment by AnonymousOne Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:39 am
My theory regarding the pension question is that even though whoever writes or sponsors the poll already knows it’s useless to ask, they see it as a way to keep reminding people to be mad at public employees.
Comment by Cheswick Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 11:56 am
===i know hundreds(yes,hundreds) of trade union members who are turning into republicans because they can’t handle the overall illinois tax burden any longer.===
Ugh.
Where were you during the Reagan Administration?
Do you know of Jim Thompson? Jim Edgar?
Have you heard of Local 150, the McCormick Place and Rosemont trade unions?
- blue dog dem -, this isn’t “new” about the trades and the GOP, it just might be “new” to you, at both the national and state levels.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 12:21 pm
RNUG, thank you very much for you insightful posts today. Very enlightening, as usual. Thanks again.
Comment by Big Joe Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 12:24 pm
==‘If you were a resident of the state in 2015 then you owe 25% of your 401(k) balance.’ Good plan, no?==
Excellent plan! That, of course, would assume I’ve gotten a 8-10% employer match my entire career instead of the 3% I’ve gotten. So you’d have to go back to those employers and collect that amount with compounded interest. And now I don’t have to worry about my annuity running out of money and can live off of 75% of my highest salary. And I get to retire 10 years or so earlier now. And I get all this for only 25% of my 401k balance?!
Deal! Where do I sign? And where do I send you Ernie Broglio?
Comment by nixit71 Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 12:27 pm
Blue Dog Dem, fine..good..wheat from the chaf brother.
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 12:28 pm
nixit: you got what you signed up for. It’s technically known as ‘a contract’. The issue is whether it can be modified (not in your favor)retroactively.
Comment by UIC Guy Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 12:44 pm
RNUG actually on taxing retirement inc there are some special laws governing taxing authority that make a income tax on retirees pretty much untouchable.
the retiree shortfall amount is also a red herring. to fix the problem short term tou need to identify what is being paid out and make sure resources exist to cover the pay out every year. long term you need to make sure the contribution rates from employees and the state match a reasonable amount to cover current workers accounts…. this is seperate then what is meeded to pay current retirees….. long term you add in a little extra to cover the shortfall for what has been borrowed.
right now we take current contributions and use them to pay retirees puramid scheme style…. so we are not building ang growing long term investments to cover those retirees (this is a generalization there is principal on hand not being spent).
my ideas…. chicago casino, approve it, mandate 25% of tax goes to state pension pay downs, and 25% to chicago pension paydown. when those system are at 80% the money is shifted to rainy day funds.
legalize marijuana and tax it, make all drug use crimes fines wothout jail time if they do not invvle violent crime. save on prison and court costs, raises reveneue from fines.
10 billion prior retirment bond payment…. mandate the payment money goes into paying down the unfunded liability when bonds paid off.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 12:50 pm
@UIC Guy - But I already bought Ernie his plane ticket.
…still looking for my contract…
Comment by nixit71 Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 12:56 pm
From the full poll:
As you may know, the state has a budget shortfall of at least four billion dollars. Which one of the following options to address the budget shortfall and balance the budget as required by state law would you prefer? (RANDOMIZE)
15% Raising taxes
66% Cutting state spending
3% Borrowing and taking on additional debt?
4% Raising taxes and making spending cuts (DO NOT READ)
1% Raising taxes and borrowing/taking on additional debt (DO NOT READ)
* Making spending cuts and borrowing/taking on additional debt (DO NOT READ)
1% ALL OF THE ABOVE (DO NOT READ)
7% NONE OF THE ABOVE (DO NOT READ)
4% DON’T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
* REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
—————————————–
This response is another indication that the elected leadership in Illinois still hasn’t be honest with the folks they represent to what can actually be accomplished with budget cuts. Two thirds of the respondents are under the delusion that there’s some way to cut our way to a balanced budget — and I know this doesn’t do anything about the projected “gap.”
This is just ridiculous. Journalist and our elected leaders need to take the time to actually educate the body politic on the state’s fiscal situation instead of just using poll figures to talk about opinions that are popular, but impossible.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 12:56 pm
@nixit Not sure where you get your numbers from, but I have to wait until my mid 60s to retire and I will get about 33% of my pay in pension according to my last statement. I’m guessing police and fire get earlier retirement due to the work, but I have no idea about the amount for them.
Comment by HangingOn Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 1:17 pm
After the Illinois Supreme Court decision on SB1 any survey that gives the public the opinion of cutting public employee pension is not a serious survey. Anyone familiar with consulting or public policy analysis knows that you get the result you what by what questions you ask or how you ask them. The Americans for Prosperity of Illinois comes to the discussion with a mind set and their polling is designed at it’s base level to get the results it wanted.
Comment by Rollo Tamasi Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 1:40 pm
==cutting government employee pensions==
That would be tier-2 and has already been done.
Comment by Enviro Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 1:43 pm
The problem isn’t people wanting their cake and eat it too, or wanting a free lunch. There is an important subtle difference which can’t just be overlooked here.
Consumer mentality advocates that everyone pays their fair share, and that no one should get something free.
This mentality would disagree with those who are claiming that Illinoisans want everything but don’t want to pay for it. They are WILLING to pay for their FAIR SHARE. They don’t want to see government goods and services going to citizens FREE.
For decades, there have been too many stories of able-bodies citizens taking advantage of government goods and services and living off of them. There are many stories of well dressed people using LINK cards while the family with a cart full of ramen have to save to eat. THESE are the stories pushing citizens into demanding change in how government services and goods are paid and distributed.
These people don’t mind paying - they are tired of seeing people they believe could pay - NOT paying. They want to see government helping the truly needy, not the 25 year old man who never worked, getting money for a supposed back injury while fathering kids with different ladies.
We are at a disadvantage here. These are judgment calls at an age when “enlightened” experts claim that the only correct judging is the judging made against those who judge. We repeatedly see groups claim discrimination against those who want to know why they are getting free government services and goods. We are living in an age when we are repeatedly told not to judge.
Yet we all do, don’t we?
The poll doesn’t really say that people want something for nothing. It is saying that people don’t want to pay more when they believe their neighbors are getting ahead at their expense.
That is a big difference folks.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 1:47 pm
“The pension problem isn’t a problem according to the ILSC.”
Right. It’s a problem for the our elected folks who must vote for a tax increase mainly necessary to pay pension debt and then face voters who have said they want to cut pensions. Everything RNUG says is true. But irrelevant. The public at large doesn’t know nor care about tiers, Kanerva, or the Supreme Court. What they care about is that they must pay higher taxes not for increased services but to pay for something they have said should be reduced. The Attorney General made this point when arguing why a tax increase was not an attractive option for maintaining existing pension benefits. We may think voters are being irrational on this issue but it is irrational to think they will behave rationally.
Comment by CapnCrunch Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 2:15 pm
== right now we take current contributions and use them to pay retirees puramid scheme style…. so we are not building ang growing long term investments to cover those retirees (this is a generalization there is principal on hand not being spent). ==
Technically correct as of today. However, during the Quinn years and up until this November the State was not only covering the monthly outgo from their monthly contributions but also putting some assets into the pension funds. Not a lot or very fast, but the asset pile was getting bigger. Skipping the November and December payments is causing the funds to actually sell off assets to meet payments.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 2:41 pm
Pensioners are voters (and are citizens and paid income tax just like every employed Illinois citizen), too.
Kiss my [tush] and pay my pension.
Comment by PolPal56 Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 2:51 pm
== What the they care about is that they must pay higher taxes not for increased services but to pay for something they have said should be reduced. ==
Although it won’t make any difference, the public has been dining at an “all you can eat” buffet of government services financed by shorting the pension funds and they don’t like the fact they are going to receive a bill. As also mentioned, this feeling is enhanced by them seeing the abuses that do exist in the welfare / work comp systems.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 3:16 pm
RNUG, the State pensions have been in a negative cash flow position (defined as member and State contributions
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 3:43 pm
==Demoralized please direct me to the poll that says the GA enjoys more support than Rauner. I am sure it will be easy to find. I eagerly await your response.==
Yeah, the support for the Governor out there is overwhelming. If you want to continue making such a silly argument keep going. The rest of us will keep laughing at you.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 3:49 pm
Taxpayers are suffering from buyer’s remorse. All kinds of stuff on the charge card (pension funds) but now they don’t want to pay for what they got (new roads, bridges, cheap(er)taxes…….
Comment by AnonymousOne Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 3:50 pm
== RNUG, the State pensions have been in a negative cash flow position (defined as member and State contributions ==
Although I’ll admit it was a bit dated, thought the last time I ran the annual numbers they were still slightly gaining between the contributions and earnings. Of course, the earnings do vary short term.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 3:52 pm
RNUG-something happened to the second half of my post. Whoops. The gap is narrowing, but it’s still substantial. For TRS in FY14, contributions were about $4.5b, and payout $5.2b leaving a pretty good chunk to come from investments.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Nov 18, 15 @ 4:06 pm