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The least popular freshman governor

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Illinois
Polls

While only a small percentage of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, the average governor’s approval rating is a healthy 54 percent. An average of 34 percent disapproved.

Running for president appears to be a good path to a lousy approval rating in one’s home state, the surveys show. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker – both of whom have an approval rating of just 40 percent — join Jindal near the bottom of the rankings (Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who sports a 59 percent approval rating, is the lone exception).

On the other hand, voters appear to give the benefit of the doubt to governors who have only recently won office: Less than a year into their terms, Baker, Hogan, Alaska’s Walker, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R), Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) all have approval ratings north of 59 percent. Hawaii Gov. David Ige (D) and Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf (D) both have approval ratings over 50 percent.

Only one new governor – Illinois’s Bruce Rauner (R) – is seen in a negative light: His approval rating, 42 percent, is three points lower than the percentage who disapprove of the job he’s doing.

Rauner never really had great numbers during the campaign, and these are 2016 voters, so it’s a more Democratic sample. I seriously doubt this poll would cause any sort of panic on Team Rauner.

But it’s nothing to be proud of, for sure.

The Illinois survey had a very large sample size, by the way. Click here to see ‘em all.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 8:34 am

Comments

I don’t think there will be panic.

But Rauner did spend $2 million on that weird personal-branding, campaign-style spot last summer. That was different. He obviously keeps on eye on his popularity.

Lord knows the dude tries to duck all responsibility for his actions or lack thereof.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 8:45 am
Popularity is overrated when your goal all along was to end prevailing wage and collective bargaining.

Rauner feels he has for opportunities (budgets) to hold the state hostage to decimates unions, and if he loses in 3 years and doesn’t get to destroy unions, his legend in his own circles will be thst of a hero…

… Now, the Rauner name within Social Service circles could be destroyed beyond repair, but I digress.

Reality?

Listen to Raunerbots;

“But… but… Speaker Madigan’s numbers are even worse! Madigan! Madigan!”

Ugh.

I gave Rauner two tasks, that if completed, what could I possibly beef about in the act of governing;

Budget
Labor Peace

It’s Thanksgiving. Not close on either.

And don’t point to “all these labor agreements”… and “they show…”

Stop. Look at the offer AFSCME is getting, then the agreed offers, specifically to medical.

The sad truth is Rauner will more than likely win re-election, spending $90 million defending… nothing, as of today… as opposed to the $60+ million to “not” be Quinn… Quinn, the governor that “owned”

I’d te the Governor to, you know, “Hang In There”, but even for Raunerites that’s a bit cliche.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 8:45 am
” As You Sow, So Shall You Reap “

Comment by x ace Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 8:47 am
Hang in there, Bruce!

Comment by Roamin' Numeral Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 8:47 am
The guv doesn’t give 2 hoots about popularity ratings. He cares about positive change for state government and the economic situation of Illinois.

Comment by anon Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 8:49 am
===The guv doesn’t give 2 hoots…===

Is that you, Ron Sandack?

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 8:52 am
Willy, you’re on target once again.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 8:52 am
Things could be worse for Bruce Rauner — at least his “superstar” $30,000-a-month budget consultant, Donna Arduin is gone.

Kansas governor Sam Brownback implemented a draconian tax cut plan developed by Arthur Laffer, Arduin’s partner. And now Kansas economy is, at best, stagnating, the deficit has grown, the state’s bond ratings have been repeatedly downgraded and Brownback now has an approval rating of 26 percent.

I have faith that Rauner can still match Brownback, and carry GOP legislators with him, if he just hangs in there.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 8:57 am
Guessin’ the SuperStars will see this as a victory…like the $3 billion spent to defeat Madigan and out Dunkin’….let’ 11 months to get one vote means they will have a workin’ majority in 2027…great planin’ and the Poe rental arrives today.

Comment by Anonin' Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:02 am
Don’t want to sound like a broken record but Quinn lost this election, Rauner didn’t win it.

I doubt that the frat boys give two nickels about this poll.

Comment by Stones Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:02 am
I truly believe that Rauner doesn’t care about what people think. I’m of the firm belief that he sees himself strictly as a CEO - and how many CEOs truly care about what their employees and even their closest advisers (or VPs) think or care? How would a CEO fare if his or her company took a poll of a subsample of employees? Probably not well.

Word - my general thought on the mid-summer ad buys is that Rauner was just showing people what he could do. It got people’s attention - and it was a reminder of what he will do when stuff gets real.

Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:06 am
===I doubt that the frat boys give two nickels about this poll===

lol

It didn’t come up in my Google search.

All I’m sayin…

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:09 am
Hmm, I haven’t seen an ad for a new Dad’s Home State in a while. Did the network cancel it? I hate those long breaks between cable shows’ seasons.

Comment by Keyrock Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:09 am
The Frats might not care, but GOP House members might.

Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:14 am
You know what the interesting thing is, he hasn’t had to make very many difficult decisions yet. The General Assembly has been surprisingly nice to him. Wait until he sees a large minimum wage increase on his desk. Wait until he sees a paid family leave bill on his desk. A revenue bill. A bill with cuts in it…

Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:19 am
Rauner predicted he would be unpopular after he took office. He hoped to deflect most of the pain he’s caused to the Democrats. Hasn’t worked so far.

Comment by Wensicia Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:23 am
===Wait until he sees a large minimum wage increase on his desk. Wait until he sees a paid family leave bill on his desk. A revenue bill. A bill with cuts in it…===

So, wait until March?

Comment by Anon Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:23 am
Charlie Baker (R-MA) - took office in January 2015. 74% Approval; 14% Disapproval. Veto-proof Dem majority in the MA legislature.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:24 am
I’ll take the unpopular freshman over the unpopular would-be sophomore any day.

Comment by nixit71 Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:26 am
The worst start to any administration in Illinois history. All he had to do is his job, work with people and be nice and his poll ratings would be right up there with any freshman governor.

If he did that, he would have had an easier go of getting his first term goals accomplished.

Rauner clearly ends any discussion for future governors regarding how they approach the Office. You come in like a tornado, you end up with nothing bur wreckage. You go in as a humble statesman, you build respect and accomplish something constructive.

Rauner is a poster child of how not to be a governor. He makes Blagojevich look professional.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:27 am
Good lord.
Baker and Hogan in Maryland are Republican freshman elected in strong Democratic states with dominant Democratic legislatures.

74% and 69%

See Bruce?
If you knew what you were doing, you could have citizens liking you instead of wishing Pat Quinn was back.

Worst start to any Illinois gubernatorial administration.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:32 am
Illinois is massively in debt with machine politics as the primary cause of the problem.

Rauner is calling it out.

42% considering the task and who he is dealing with is not bad at this point.

Comment by Cannon649 Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:32 am
I like characterizing Rauner as a “freshman” governor. It fits so well. The combination of excitement and cluelessness.

Comment by Henry Francis Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:37 am
Not to be an antagonist on Governor Hogan’s numbers, but what if some of his high approval rating stems from his bout with cancer and not from his actual job performance.

Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:50 am
- Cannon649 -

Please, call it “The Combine”.

Also, see if Bruce Rauner ever donated to “The Combine”.

Thanks.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:50 am
The only one that really matters is his popularity rating in 3 years.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:51 am
Cannon, you appear to be concerned about “massive deficits.”

The comptroller estimates that there is an $8B to $12B deficit in the fiscal year that began July 1.

That is, the difference in the amount of spending and revenues projected between July 1, 2015 and June 30,2016.

It has nothing to do with the past. It’s happening right now.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:55 am
===The only one that really matters is his popularity rating in 3 years.===

Nah.

With IllinoisGO, it will matter in March if Raunerites are running in Democratic primaries, and it will matter in next November to Comptroller Munger and to the Labor Movement as to which GA members are voting their districts or against collective bargaining and prevailing wage.

“It’s ‘Skyhook’ in reverse”

“Fire Madigan, 2.0″ turned on its head.

That’s why Rauner says he doesn’t look at poll numbers, but tells the Raunerite Caucuses “We’re winning”, citing polls.

===The only one that really matters is his popularity rating in 3 years.===

Nope.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:56 am
I’ve attended some of his events as both candidate and governor. His public speaking has improved and his skill at framing (and reframing) discussion is now admirable at times.

I am probably wrong on all the following; but… I don’t think his support is as solid as he thinks and the public’s trust of him is low. Those vendors, social service agencies and some independents which may have been either supportive or neutral to him last election will probably be actively opposed to him next election. My perception (gained by talking with some) is that his actions have really put a lot of Republican legislators under tremendous pressure with their constituents. I wouldn’t even be too surprised if at least a few of them publicly support him; but secretly vote for the Democrat gubernatorial candidate next time!

I think Rauner & Dem leadership all need to reach a compromise soon and there are issues upon which a compromise seems viable so that each “wins”.

Comment by logic not emotion Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 9:56 am
Willy, hat tip on the “In Harms Way” reference.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:06 am
Anon at 9:23am - I have been wrong many times before. But I don’t think we see a minimum wage bill pass both chambers until 2018.

Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:07 am
Quinn’s team didn’t care about their poll numbers either because “it’s tough to do what’s right” and believed they would eventually be rewarded for it. Just like Rauner. The lesson Rauner’s people need to learn is you need to communicate why you are doing things that are unpopular. Rauner is definitely not doing a good job of it and his numbers are going to continue to drop.

Comment by Rahm'sMiddleFinger Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:08 am
- Norseman -, Easter Eggs, there to be found. Thanks.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:09 am
== Illinois is massively in debt with machine politics as the primary cause of the problem.==

Allowing the income tax rate to fall on Jan. 1st — at Rauner’s behest– certainly spiked the debt.

Comment by nona Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:20 am
i believe this distinction was held by rick scott 4 years ago. similar background as rauner (although i believe scott had some more ethical/legal issues in his background). it looked as if democrats would pound scott into oblivion when he ran for re-election.

scott won a tight reelection race against democrat charlie crist in one of the closest, costliest and most bitter contests in the country. if you think that rauner is likely to cave (you know, like blagojevich), i’d strongly suggest you take a look at what other republican governors have been doing. rauner is well within the mainstream of conservative republican governors, and the electorate hasn’t exactly been disapproving at the polls…

Comment by bored now Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:22 am
Rauner thinks he’s winning. He thinks the Dems are running scared. He has said many times the pain will be worth it to accomplish his goals. I don’t believe any of that, but he does

Comment by Langhorne Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:24 am
This guy is on an ego trip that only the wealthy few can afford. He’s also shown that when the heat is laid at his doorstep he’ll fold.
He is very conscious of his approval rating.

Comment by efudd Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:30 am
Captain Bruce Rauner steers the S.S. Titanic, er, Illinois, into the sea of icebergs, er, impasses, confidently telling his passengers, “I’m hangin’ in there.”

Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:39 am
“Illinois is massively in debt with machine politics as the primary cause of the problem.

Rauner is calling it out.”

If calling it out is referring to his proposal to borrow $2.2 billion from the pension system, or borrowing $700 million from the group health insurance program, or $450 million from other funds after he expressly said he wasn’t going to do that, or IFA issuing debt to cover MFT payment, or the IFA issuing debt to cover the State’s increasing backlog of bills.

Not to mention the use of one time fund sweeps to cover and operational shortfall or his signature of the lone appropriation bill that significantly increased spending.

You are absolutely correct. The Governor is doing a mighty fine job of calling it out our debt problem.

Comment by Juice Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:47 am
Good grief Vanillaman, Blago is sitting in a federal prison, the result of actions that started his first year in office. His contribution to the demise of this state is unprecedented.

I realize you don’t like Rauner but your homerism is off the charts!!

Comment by anon Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:47 am
Better check those polls.
I believe Blagojevich had a better first year in office than Rauner.

As to not liking Rauner, he reaped what he sowed. Plus, he has set back conservative governance a generation by being so daft and unprofessional.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:57 am
To those calling out the high polling numbers of the Massachusetts Governor and Maryland Governor- I would say they don’t have states that are bankrupt. Not too much controversial stuff going on so not many hard choices.

Comment by Anon Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 10:59 am
- Anon -

(Sigh)

Illinois is not going bankrupt, Illinois is not bankrupt, because Illinois, as a state, can’t go bankrupt.

Geez, Louise…

Also…

=== Not too much controversial stuff going on so not many hard choices.===

This is comically flawed. Choices, even in their difficulty, do not make poll numbers drop.

It’s the actions, or lack thereof, that dictate polling. The positions on the choices, not the difficulty of the choice are what at play.

Your thoughts on this point are bankrupt.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 11:04 am
I would say the poll pretty much reflects the overall party line. Could that be 42 (R), 58 (D)+/-3%?

Comment by justacitizen Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 11:07 am
Justacit. not a bad thought, but you left out the large number who self-identfy as independent, and are swing voters.

Comment by walker Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 11:45 am
“I believe Blagojevich had a better first year in office than Rauner.”

Carol Felsenthal certainly thought Blago had a good first year: http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/November-2003/Governor-Sunshine/

(By contrast, Rich Miller — “the worst run, worst managed” — did not.)

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 12:06 pm
We are in the unique position where neither the leader of the State Republican Party, nor his opponent, the leader of the State Democratic Party, care what their poll numbers are.

This should be a case study someday.

Comment by Just Me Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 1:10 pm
-Oswego Willy-

Difficult decisions do drive poll numbers. Difficult decisions are usually controversial in some manner. Controversial decisions anger at least some- if not a majority of people. Hence difficult decisions drive polling numbers one way or the other. Duh.

Comment by Anon Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 2:07 pm
Oh - Anon -

I read fine.

You said “choices”, not decisions. Now it’s “decisions” you say, lol.

Please, read what your write so you know what you say. Thanks.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 2:23 pm
Madigan and the polls he controls.

Comment by very old soil Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 2:46 pm
The thing about freshmen? It’s so easy to sell them elevator passes.

Comment by Dome Gnome Friday, Nov 20, 15 @ 2:49 pm