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Upset prediction

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Illinois

Choose one race, it doesn’t matter what level, that you think will surprise the pundits and the experts. Explain why.

Let’s try to keep it to Illinois, however.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 9:12 am

Comments

I bet you couldn’t predict which race I was going to pick. The Gubernatioral race! Whitney will do much better than the pundits and pollsters expect, just as he has done at every step up to this point.

Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 9:33 am
Burns over Tester.

I mean, look, I’ll take a Montana Democrat over just about any IL Republican (Hell, we should put Montana in charge of everything), but Tester’s rationale for running — GOP corruption — has faded. Kudos will go to John Kerry pushing Burns over the top.

Comment by Greg Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 9:33 am
The election for Governor. In my happy place I like to think these polls of only a few hundered voters are concentrated in the Chicago area and are inaccruate. I also prefer to pretend that I live in a state not occupied with a sheep like population that has bought into Blago’s negative adds; that as a populace we will turn away such corruption. Otherwise we are a state where the message is you need to be corrupt to build huge war chests so that you can buy elections, and the citizenry is to dim to stop it.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 9:55 am
I think the biggest sleeper races could be at complete opposite ends of the state. Brandon Phelps may win but it will be much closer than expected. Similarly, the House Dems may pick up the Ehlman seat in Lake County.

Comment by sine die Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 9:59 am
I think Whitney will do far worse than the pundits have predicted. It’s one thing to say you’re going to cast a protest vote. It’s quite another to actually pull the lever…or whatever it is we do now.

Whitney

Comment by Nisok Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:01 am
dan seals upsets kirk

Comment by kj Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:06 am
I think we will find a HUGE upset in the Governors race. Whitney will not poll as near as the past polls have indicated and JBT will come out on top.

Comment by Illinois is #1 Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:09 am
zinga over Hare: just kidding

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:14 am
Topinka will do much better in Chicago than anyone could guess estimated. (1) Dick Mell hates Blago with a passion, and will use today as a payback. (2) Mayor Daley hates Blago because he can’t work with the guy, can’t trust the guy, is used to working fine with R governors, and with Blago gone can once again be considered the top Dem in the state, plus Judy will give him a Chicago casino and Blago won’t. (3) Mike Madigan knows first hand how really bad Blago is as a Governor, plus if Blago is in office when he’s indicted, the whole “George Ryan” problem is turned around on the Dem’s and multiplied next time, when the first daughter is running for Guv (against Governor Quinn in a primary). These top three dems have plenty of reasons why it’s better for them for Blago to go away. Judy becomes guv, and Blago ends up running a McDonals, or maybe as John Fritchey’s legislative assistant!

Comment by IVote Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:20 am
I agree with KJ—seals over kirk

Comment by 23eyes Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:23 am
Voter outrage over U.S. Rep. Shamekus’ welching on his term limits pledge along with his obtuseness on the Foley Scandal will hand the seat to Stover.

What? Was I nodding off? Feeling a bit groggy…time for more coffee. Sorry!

Comment by OleProf Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:27 am
OleProf Stover will go back to what he was doing a wanne be.He couldn’t even fit in on the city council.Shimkus by 30%.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:44 am
Laesch gets around 45%. Not enough to win (obviously) but enough to give soon-to-be former Speaker Hastert the final push towards retirement.

Comment by Bluefish Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:44 am
Seals will not take Kirk, but it’ll squeak closer than Kirk’s ever had to deal with before… too close for comfort. And the next race will be interesting to see if Seals sticks around the scene. It probably depends on if Jan Schakowski continues to bankroll Seals.

The surprise may well be Fitzgerald over Link in the 30th Sen. District. Link has ignored his constituents, spent all his time meddling in other races, and incensed and disinfranchised the African American community.

Frank Watson made the investment, we’ll see if it pays off. Sure, a lot of it was to keep Link busy, but unless Fitzgerald had a chance to be competitive, there would have been no point throwing money at it.

Comment by Team America, World Police Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:48 am
IVote said it all, for all the right reasons. Rich Mell is an long-time, old-time Chgo pol and he will demand his due in payback, son-in-law or not. Remember, Mama Soprano plotted to have her son killed. Fiction and truth are mostly intertwined.

Comment by Disgusted Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:55 am
Kirk dumped a ton of last-minute money on the airwaves this weekend–all negative attacks on Seals. So he obviously thinks it could be close too. I say Kirk hangs on, but not by much.

Comment by Hound Dog Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 10:58 am
Crespo either defeats Parke or at least gives him a strong challenge.

The significance is that in that district, the GOP used to go unopposed [the “Bobkowski years”]. Now the area is good ground for Democrats.

It has national implications in that it affirms Gov. Dean’s fifty state strategy. Take the fight to Republican strongholds and see what can be gained.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 11:01 am
I’m betting that Tim Nieukirk will surprise everyone by actually getting a percentage in the gubernatorial race.

Comment by roter busch Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 11:11 am
Duckworth over Roskam and yes I do consider that an upset. This was Henry Hyde’s seat.

Comment by goodbye napoleon Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 11:17 am
Cahnman takes burned out Poe in Springfield, sets his sights on the appellate court

Comment by Fredbyrd Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 11:40 am
Capt. Kirk Crash lands
Shimpkus does not get caught, but will be spanked for his roll in the pervert coverup when he get back to DC. In the end he have prefered to lose.

Comment by Reddbyrd Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 11:54 am
I have no idea what will happen with Peraica-Stroger, and a Peraica win wouldn’t exactly be a stunning upset - but it could happen.

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 12:02 pm
Backlash from John Q. Public having to sit through countless political commericals during Monday Night Football, LaRouche sweeps it all.

Comment by Prahabukowski Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 12:20 pm
Shimkus, having had to actually get out and talk to people, wins in a closer than expected race, but if he’s smart stays home in 2008.

Comment by Gus Bode Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 12:23 pm
Has Blagojevich conceded yet ? JBT by 12%.

Comment by Citizen A Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 12:35 pm
Let’s go with a long shot: at least one Cook County judge will fail to be retained on the retention ballot. Wouldn’t that be an upset?

Comment by Jake from Elwood Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 12:42 pm
No reaosn to think it’s going to happen, but Shannon over Biggert in the 13 CD. Also, the Democrat (blanking) over Lauzen in the 25th Senate. Any takers?

Comment by gs Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 12:49 pm
gs- won’t happen, unfortunately in the case of Lauzen.

Bluefish- if Laesch hadn’t irritated Aurora’s Latino community with dirty tricks in the primary against their favorite son, he might have a chance of breaking 40% or even 45%. Not this time.

6th or 8th will not be a surprise either way because they’re polling close. Seals over Kirk is the nearest possible race that could be called an “upset” if he wins.

Gov. Rod is in trouble, if the poll watchers at CF Blog are a representative sample of what is going on around the state.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 12:57 pm
Rich,

This isn’t entirely on point, and not IL centric, so my apologies, but I think it should be stated. I think the biggest upset will be those on the left wing of the Democratic party who think that they are winning this election, when that is not at all the case. The reality is that candidates like Jim Webb (former Reagan navy secretary), Bob Casey (pro-life), Brad Ellsworth (an Indiana sheriff who signed the Americans for Tax Reform antitax pledge), Gabrielle Giffords (an AZ business executive), Jack Davis (a millionaire business executive) etc. will win the key races that give the Dems a majority. These are not tax & spend, peace, drugs & rock & roll Dems. They are moderate, pro-business Dems. That’s OK with me as I tend to be a moderate Dem. This will have some impact as to who gets chosen for the leadership positions.

Comment by Niles Township Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 1:11 pm
Six degrees, Linda Chapa LaVia is the favorite son of Aurora’s Latino community. All 25 of Zamora’s diehard supporters withholding their vote from Laesch isn’t a factor.

Comment by Auroran Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 1:16 pm
A Democratic pick up of 1 seat in Illinois with the over all Dem gain in congress of 20 seats. 20 seats is not a democratic ground swell but is only a ripple

Comment by oldie opah Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 1:48 pm
Upset? Well, if JBT pulls it out that is THE upset. 20,000 plus negative ads to her meagre war chest. Anyone managing to win in those circumstances is NEWS. If she loses, Karl Rove style politics will be the way of the future and I might just move to the Netherlands. (Wait, they had a gay politician murdered there - so where IS safe, these days?)

Comment by Dem Voting R Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 2:17 pm
While I haven’t heard any REAL support for Stroger (his public supporters, like Obama, can’t do better than issue backhanded compliments, essentially saying “he may be unqualified, but he’s still a Democrat” or “at least he’s better than the other guy”), if he loses it would be a shocker. To me, it would show the failure in the Democratic Machine’s policy of throw anything with a familiar last name out there and see what sticks.

But anyway, because the Machine is still working, and we’ve seen them deliver time and time again, and even though the polls say it’s close, if Peraica won, it would be pretty remarkable.

Comment by M.V. Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 2:45 pm
Miami over the Bears… I mean JBT over RB.

Comment by Coach Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 3:24 pm
Dan Seals will upset Mark Kirk in the 10th because of a combination of intense anger at Bush and the Congress, the demoralized R base and disarray in the party.

Comment by ChicagoCynic Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 3:30 pm
Those crazy kids, Britney Spears and Tim Nieukirk finally stop pretending they donâ€™t notice each other.

Comment by Ivory-billed Woodpecker Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 4:00 pm
Enough, please. lol

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 4:09 pm
Auroran-

Linda definitely would’ve been Aurora’s favorite “daughter” (”son” just doesn’t seem to fit her) IF she was running for 14th CD. But she wasn’t. There are a few more than 25 people who were rubbed the wrong way with the Zamora petition challenges and other “incidents” in the primary season from what I can gather. And she will be an odds on favorite for the primary when the 14th is an open seat, should she choose to run. And I’d think she would be running against Cross, not Lauzen, in the general.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Nov 7, 06 @ 6:53 pm