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They can’t both be right

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Polls

A new Ogden & Fry poll looking at the Cook County state’s attorney race shows conflicting numbers over support for Anita Alvarez. Of those surveyed, 61 percent approved of her job performance. But when asked whether she should resign because of her handling of the Laquan McDonald case, 61 percent said yes. Since those two answers seem at odds, the poll, commissioned by the Illinois Observer, was “double-checked for accuracy,” and here’s how pollster Tom Swiss explains the results: “It appears the Laquan McDonald case is so emotionally charged that nearly 40% of respondents who initially approved of State’s Attorney Alvarez’ performance thought she should resign in light of her handling of the McDonald case.” Find poll results here: http://bit.ly/1Y7MlCj

OK, first of all, a pretty important fact not mentioned above is that the firm polled Democrats…

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely 2016 Democratic Primary voters.

Either way, that more than “seems” like a very odd result. I don’t think I would’ve run it if that was my poll.

* But there’s another poll out today from a more established firm. Public Policy Polling released its results of a poll of likely Cook County Democratic primary voters…

If the primary election for Cook County State Attorney were today, and the candidates were Anita Alvarez, Kim Foxx, and Donna More, who would you vote for?

Anita Alvarez 33%
Kim Foxx 24%
Donna More 11%
Not sure 32%

Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Cook County State Attorney Anita Alvarez is doing?

Strongly approve 19%
Somewhat approve 25%
[Total approve 44%]
Somewhat disapprove 26%
Strongly disapprove 24%
[Total disapprove 50%]
Not sure 6%

So, she’s above water in Ogden & Fry among Democrats, but underwater in the PPP poll. Considering the O&F resignation result, I think PPP is probably far more likely to be true, but we’ll obviously need more polling.

The PPP poll was conducted for WGN Radio, Aldertrack and DNA Info Chicago.

* Also, the latest Ogden & Fry poll of likely 2016 Chicago primary voters trumped by Politico had Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s approval rating at a microscopic 18 percent while his disapproval rating was a whopping 67 percent.

PPP has very different results for likely 2016 Chicago Democratic primary voters: 40 percent approve while 56 percent disapprove. That’s still not good for Rahm, but it’s way different than the widely reported Ogden & Fry survey. And, frankly, considering everything that’s going on in the city, 40 percent ain’t really all that bad.

* Back to Politico…

SPIN CITY — CBS/2’s Jay Levine last night gave five reasons why Mayor Rahm Emanuel will survive the CPD crisis. “Reason #2″ struck us as odd. Levine pointed to a recent poll showing just 18 percent approval rating for the mayor and 51 percent of those surveyed said they thought the mayor should resign. “Those polls are misleading. The real drop in his approval rating came after he pushed through a tax increase to balance the city budget. Not as a result of the police scandal,” Levine insisted. He failed to give a basis for that statement, however. It was something Emanuel operatives were pushing earlier in the week. The budget, and massive property tax hike was approved in late October. The poll was conducted on Dec. 2 — a week after the release of the explosive video and after Emanuel canned McCarthy. http://cbsloc.al/1mdRywt

The “basis for that statement’ is pretty clear. Ogden & Fry’s poll from September had Emanuel’s approval rating at 25 percent (not far from Ogden & Fry’s December poll) and a disapproval of 51.

And does it really matter that the tax hikes were approved in October when it was pretty clear to pretty much everyone that tax and fee hikes were coming and that the CTU was extremely angry?

Either way, there is zero doubt that Ogden & Fry was showing lousy Emanuel numbers back in September - long before that video came out. To ignore that is kinda goofy. And to claim that Jay Levine is somehow a shill for Emanuel because he simply pointed out some easily discernible facts is uncalled for.

We’ll have more on the PPP poll later today.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 9:15 am

Comments

I don’t know if the responses are necessarily at odds. The first question asks about job approval — you might just have a bunch of people that don’t really have an informed opinion giving an opinion and saying “yea, I approve.” Then the second question reminds them of the shooting and her role and that others are saying she should step down and the respondents think “oh yea, people want her to resign, I guess she should resign.”

Comment by Just Observing Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 9:19 am
As of a few days ago, not a whole lot of money reported raised by any of the SA candidates. Not big TV buy money, by any means.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 9:25 am
“Friends of Anita Alvarez” would be an exercise in optimistic grandiosity.

Comment by West Sider Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 9:27 am
That is why Alvarez needed to maintained calm and professionalism during this circus - she would have reminded voters why they elected her. Losing her cool was the worst thing she could do. Let the politicians argue, her office is more than politics. Getting into the fray harmed her.

She still might be OK, even though she blew it.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 9:32 am
I guess it would be cheaper and faster to just rely on polls instead of holding expensive elections every 4 years. (snark intended)

Comment by one of the 35 Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 9:34 am
I hope someone will ask Donna More supporters who their second choice is.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 9:42 am
To the Post,

The state’s attorney race might be more about reminding people that Anita Alvarez is the incumbent more than any other issue in that race, in this very specific set of circumstances.

It’s not a referendum, it’s a educational process first, then trying to educate the votets which of the two would be better.

“Anita is the incumbent, but here’s why I’m better than your other choice… “

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 9:43 am
Very fascinating to me. I have been curious throughout this whole post-Laquon video era of how many people are truely going to turn their back on Anita Alvarez. The media has certainly sensationalized the story, but I would bet that there are a good amount of people that still support her - even if they are not open about it.

Comment by Anonymouth Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 9:46 am
MrJM: bada bada bing!

Alvarez has a race, but Kopp has to greatly outpace More to have any chance to unseat her, (or vice versa)

Rahm stays regardless; why care about those results?

Comment by walker Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 9:47 am
walker, Rahm’s numbers matter because it should dictate strategy and politics. The voters aren’t happy, so Rahm (shouldn’t) force his policies down everyone’s throats. He should be looking to get into the good graces of voters rather and shut down this circus clown show that City Hall is (and has been for a while) right now.

Maybe City Council members start hearing it from their voters, “hey Alderman, you’re way too close to the mayor, watch it”. If that happens (and it is) then how do the aldermen respond? Can they keep rubber stamping everything?

And then at the state, Rahm loses any political capital he had. Some here will say he never really had much, but the little he had, is gone. Why would any state rep or sen listen to a guy with 67% disapproval?

And CPS is about to implode in the next few weeks. This is only going to get worse…

Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 10:38 am
MrJM - You might want to ask John Fritchey, he’s here often and IIRC has stated that he supports Donna More

Comment by Lester Holt's Mustache Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 10:40 am
Do Not Feed Trolls…

Especially those willing to make no argument but has a need to attack without saying anything.

(Banned Word)

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 12:38 pm
Without the benefit of any polling, I’m certain of one thing:

Theo Epstein is now the least popular person in St. Louis.

First Lackey, now Heyward, who reportedly took less money than the Cards offered to go to the Cubs.

Heyward’s left-handed bat makes that a monster lineup.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 1:13 pm
Yes, it is important to understand the Ogden & Fry poll is only DEMOCRATS.

Ogden& Fry has done over 300 polls this year with thousands of questions asked and the contradiction between the first two questions (Alvarez approval vs Alvarez resigning) is the only result I have found puzzling. Of course the poll was double-checked to make sure there wasn’t an error. Either Alvarez approval question is an anomaly, voters don’t really know Alvarez’ job function unless placed in context, or the Laquan McDonald case is really emotionally charged. The Laquan McDonald case may prove to be still more powerful.

The Ogden & Fry polling of Rahm’s approval rating has been pretty consistent. Emanuel took a hit after the $500+ property tax increase and another with the Laquan McDonald video release. The PPP poll apparently asks Suburban Cook residents about the Chicago Mayor. These are 2 different universes of voters and the Suburban Cook residents don’t vote for Mayor of Chicago.
With the exception of only polling for Democratic primary voters, Ogden & Fry used the same methodology that correctly called the Rauner/Quinn race and Mayoral race.

Comment by Ogden & Fry Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 2:11 pm
=The PPP poll apparently asks Suburban Cook residents about the Chicago Mayor.=

Why did they do that? I bet if we included voters in Mexico, Trumps lead in the GOP primary shrinks considerably.

Comment by Carhartt Representative Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 3:10 pm
Polls,smolls,trolls. I have cast my last vote for the RAHM Man.

Comment by Blue dog dem Friday, Dec 11, 15 @ 3:13 pm