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Winners and losers and how to come back from defeat

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Illinois

Eric Krol’s Friday column takes a look at winners and losers. Here are two of his losers:

Newspaper editorial boards and crusading columnists. The old-fashioned journalistic campaigns against Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich and Cook County Board President-elect Todd Stroger certainly fell flat, didnâ€™t they? Itâ€™s going to be a long four years for print reporters covering Blagojevich.

Illinois voters. They told pollsters corruption was their top issue, then re-elected Blagojevich, whose administration is engulfed in scandal probes, and picked Stroger, whose fatherâ€™s administration faces a federal probe.

Krol also tagged the Illinois Republican Party as a loser, which is pretty obvious. Chicago Sun-Times editorial page editor Steve Huntley talked to House Republican Leader Tom Cross and offers some thoughts on what the IL GOP needs to do now.

What Cross doesn’t say outright is that the social conservatives’ message won’t pass muster with the middle-of-the-road voters who constitute the majority of the Illinois electorate. Moderate voters see hard right positions opposing stem cell research and advocating the teaching of creationism in school science classes as an offensive intrusion of religious values into medical science and public education.

Teaching intelligent design in a school science lab makes as much sense as having Charles Darwin’s The Origin of Species required reading in Sunday school. Opposing embryonic stem cell research on the grounds that a microscopic collection of cells is a fully realized human being, a person, comes across as a cruel denial of medical hope to millions of people suffering chronic and fatal diseases.

The social conservatives’ objections on stem cell science hinge, of course, on abortion. They must have been jolted by the rejection of a stringent abortion ban by voters in South Dakota, a red state. Yes, many Americans have qualms about abortion, but when confronted with the uncomfortable choice of no restrictions on abortions vs. a complete government intrusion into private life, most people will opt for less government. You’d think that’s a position conservatives would understand.

Its message is a major reason that the GOP has a gender gap. Cross said the party needs to reach out to women and ethnic and minority groups.

Discuss. But do it quickly, ‘cuz later today I’ll be shutting down comments for the weekend so I can finally escape this blog.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 3:06 pm

Comments

All these analyses of the Illinois GOP seem insufficient b/c they don’t take into account that the state party is constrained by the national party.

The state party only has options allowed by the national party. The state party can’t tone down on immigration b/c the national party is going to use the issue to push candidates like Peter Roskam and McSweeney.

So, before one answers the question about what the state GOP should do, one needs to figure out what the direction of the national GOP?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 3:20 pm
One big winner in Illinois… Bill Richardson!!! And I wish someone could tell me why!!!
http://www.elections.illinois.gov/CampaignDisclosure/CandidateDetail.aspx?id=16872

Comment by Lovie's Leather Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 3:20 pm
What, exactly did the social conservatives message have to do with the Illinois election?? All 3 of the major candidates for governor were liberals. As for the rest of the country, in many races which the Dems one, Indiana 8 and Pennsylvania Senate, to name two obvious examples, the Dems who one were also social conservatives.

What a TOTAL non-sequitor, Huntley!

Comment by HoosierDaddy Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 3:25 pm
Krol’s got it right about print reporters. He could also add some tv types like Ahern and Shaw.
Have a good weekend, Rich. You did a fantastic job this week. The blog was and is an excellent resource.

Comment by Bill Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 3:27 pm
Who “won”, that is.

Comment by HoosierDaddy Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 3:27 pm
Richardson? WTF?

Comment by HoosierDaddy Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 3:29 pm
Rich, I gotta’ go with HoosierDaddy. While I’m more a WSJ “open borders guy” according to some conservative cranks, I work closely with some of pro-lifers in the state and for the most part they aren’t parroting what Huntley claims they are.

They are against embryonic stem cell research, which is different than stem cell research. But there are efforts under way in the scientific community that address their concerns.

I’ve never heard one of these activists cite creationism in school. Now, granted there exist kooks out there who do. But the christian right rose as a result of wanting govt. to leave them alone…. not the other way around.

Fyi… in the McLaughlin polling report, GOP lost men in this election nationally, they actually did better with women. Thanks the America Firsters, the GOP got clobbered by hispanics. It was gratifying to see the two clowns in the HOR who ran on the issue go down.

6 out of 10 Americans favor smaller government. That’s where the IL GOP needs to go.

Comment by Greg Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 3:36 pm
Krol wrote a pretty good piece for a “B-lister.” LOL.

Rich, thanks again for giving all of us a great resource this week.

AA

Comment by Arthur Andersen Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 3:42 pm
Just a couple comments.

Columnists and editorial boards never lose they just say the voters got it wrong and move on to the next victim.

I read it in these blogs but not sure who wrote it and I thought, yep, they got it right. Tammy Duckworth lost because she looks too much like Rosanne Barr. I couldn’t quite put my finger on why this woman rubbed me the wrong way till I read that.

So much for being a deep thinker.

Comment by Garp Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 3:43 pm
When I first ran for office in 1966, I found that Secretary of State Charlie Carpenter patronage workers had figured out they could work for anyone whom they desired, since he had died. I came with a vote or two of carrying Marengo as a result.

Since the Republicans don’t have loads of patronage workers, I wonder whom Tom (Cross) believes will be inspired by his message to work precincts.

For a look at some who will not be so inspired, take a look at McHenryCountyBlog.com, where I have a story about the people who voted for Stufflebeam.

Are there enough to start a new party to counter the Greens?

Don’t know, but it’s an interesting question.

I’m still waiting for a core message from Illinois House Republicans. Anyone heard one yet?

Comment by Cal Skinner Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 3:50 pm
Winner: Rich Miller, cap fax is growing immensely and now starting to get national notice. Thanks, congrats, and enjoy a weekend off, you earned it this week.

Comment by Gregor Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 4:09 pm
How to come back from defeat?

The obvious first step is to not listen to the loudmouths who were actively working to cause that defeat-the ‘conservatives’ for Blagojevich, those for third-parties, and the those who encouraged people not to vote. They have absolutely no credibility.

Comment by Rick Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 4:10 pm
Cross is right. From the ashes, the GOP could rise again. But only if it jetissons the social extremists of the Right. There’s a tremendous opening to build a majority party of the future around social liberalism and fiscal conservatism, where most voters are. A pragmatic, freedom-oriented party that will stand up to the the unions and other special interest groups that control the Democratic Party would have a bright future in Illinois.

Comment by Two party believer Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 4:15 pm
What the Republican in Illinois needs is leadership!

When Jim Ryan crapped out as a Gov candidate in 2002 who stepped up and tried to run for Governor? No one. Not JBT Not Frank Watson Not John Shimkus Not Dennis Hastert. A void was created at the top for leadership.

When Jack Ryan crapped out for US Senator in 2004 who stepped up? Once again NO ONE. (See the above list)

Now we are in 2006 and we are now in the position of total disaster. The problem is and was a lack of LEADERSHIP. The only good news is that the trio of George Ryan/Judy Baar Topinka and Dennis Hastert who are all from the same area and are all as crooked as a dog’s hind leg have been defeated. We can also only hope that Oberweis and Keyes stay away also.

It is now time for a new leadership to step up and take over. They need a plan and then they need to execute that plan. The opportunity will be there to make gains in 2008 and then a takeover in 2010. The Dems will implode upon themselves because of the corruption and deficits.

Will it be Brady? Will it be C. Rose of Charleston?

Bottom line is the Rebumplicans need leadership and the sooner the better.

Comment by BIG R.PH Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 4:37 pm
We GOP’rs need to look at Roskam, and imitate it.

Comment by Tedbaxter Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 4:39 pm
The winners–Mayor Daley’s Chicago machine
The Combine
Illinois Democrat party
National Democrat Party
The losers– Judy Barr Topinka (where does she go from here?)
Illinois GOP Party (it was splintered before but it is shreded now)
Andy McKenna (wouldn’t know how to back a winner if his life depended on it)
National GOP Party
Karl Rove
Citizens of Illinois

Comment by Beowulf Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 4:40 pm
Can’t wait for the meeting between ChopperJim and TC&TheSockPuppets.com
One side wants to go back to the 19th Century, while TC wants to jump to the future. Should be fun to watch.
Sorta like watchin’ the Cubs “rebuild”

Comment by Reddbyrd Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 4:52 pm
Social Choice Theory, the pendulum swings back and forth.

Comment by scoot Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 4:53 pm
Is it worse to be Topinka who lost a race in a deep blue state while being underfunded and outspent, or Mike Madigan who saw Emil win race after race, Alexi win despite his own party chairman’s open hostility, Blagojevich win, a national and state democratic wave that carried everyone except the House dems, and their top target that they’ve been working against for two years, Shock, wins handily? Just asking.

Comment by Snark Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 4:59 pm
Dems always have the media, especially in Chicago, and this year it was particularly strong. Despite the “perfect storm,” Roskam won by 52-47. The Dems will never come within 25% in the 6th again. Roskam’s quiet competence is the answer to the clownishly left-wing liberals in the Chicago media. His ground game worked. GOP’ers take note.

Comment by Tedbaxter Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 5:20 pm
Rich, your blog has nowhere to go but through the sky. This election brought us YouTube and blogs. Less people turned to print media and TV than before. Our tech generation is getting larger and they want their information in a different way - from the internet, cell phones, IPODs, Blackberries, etc. I believe the other outdated media sources have now realized their focus is in the wrong direction and we will probably see them “try” to become creative. They have already lost out though to people like you, Rich, who have been on the cutting edge. You have provided and still are providing us with a great service and I am very grateful for the up-to-date information I was able to read here. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Have a wonderful weekend.

Comment by Little Egypt Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 5:29 pm
For a winner, I say Russ Stewart, who hit the nail on the head in terms of his estimate of turnout (3.3 million) and Topinka votes (1.32 million). He gave Whiteny too many of Blago’s votes, but otherwise, it’s a dang good projection.

http://www.russstewart.com/10-25-06.htm

Comment by Nickname Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 6:09 pm
Russ is good, but biased

Comment by Tedbaxter Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 6:11 pm
[Winner: Rich Miller, cap fax is growing immensely and now starting to get national notice.]

Got that right.

Hey, since the national media are checking out the blog, here are some headline ideas for you folks when commenting on the lack of a real plan from the Democrats, as they mostly swept due to the fact that people don’t think the GOP knows how to “win the peace” in Iraq now that Hussein has been brought to justice: THE IMPROV SHOW.

Because that’s what it is. I hope they’re good at it, too!

Comment by Angie Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 6:42 pm
Uhgg… please quit with this national talk. The last thing the Capfax needs is to be tainted by politics1. Yikes… It is great that the Capfax is growing in attention. I am just afraid of the ill side-effects of a national over-partisan idiot-mongering group posting here 120 times a day. I mean… we already have Skeeter… isn’t that enough for everyone?

Comment by Lovie's Leather Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 6:46 pm
I agree fully Lovie (except for the Skeeter part). I’m trying to run those people off, hence the policy QOTD today.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 7:01 pm
I was born and raised a Kennedy Democrat and stayed that way until I earned my first paycheck and took a look at the stub. From there on, I’ve been a registered Republican.

I’ve lived in a number of states but have never seen a state Repub Party as screwed up as Illinois’. The reason the party is so fractured is that it hasn’t had any leadership in at least the 25 years I’ve lived here. The party is a loose agregate of groups of people who are “not Democrats.”

From my observations, there are several sub-Parties:

1. Hinsdale Repubs - Old money snobs who are, well, old money snobs.

2. Naperville Repubs - New money snobs who would like to be Hinsdale Repubs, but they are not WASPS, so they can never be Hinsdale Repubs.

3. Cook County Repubs - Chicago Democrats that ran from the city because they don’t like Blacks or Hispanics…and aren’t fond of paying taxes either.

4. Sexually Repressed Repubs - That whole gaggle of pro-life, pro-abstinence, anti-gay, anti-smut folks who cost the party regulars big bucks in the primaries. I’ve been to one of their organizing meetings - trust me, sex of any kind should be the last thing these geeks think about.

So, the party will never get anywhere until a leader steps up and gets these diverse groups to march in lockstep in support of a platform to defeat the Dems.

Comment by Frosty Da Snowman Friday, Nov 10, 06 @ 7:24 pm
Interesting observation. People read newspapers less, get their news from Stephen Colbert more, and then they stupidly reelect an obviously corrupt Governor and put the mob’s banker in charge of state finances.
The print reporters (ESPECIALLY BELANDI AND THE AP) are obviously left-wingers, but at least there is a larger assemblage of fact and an minimal amount of catchy graphics in a newspaper.

End result of the Illinois elections: Blago and Emil Jones lease the tollway and raise our income taxes so suburban voters can pay for the failed Chicago school system.

At least Pate Phillip tried to fix it first.

Comment by anon Saturday, Nov 11, 06 @ 12:41 am
What a novel idea Mr. Cross has about reaching out to minority groups. We have been talking about this for ten years. Where was he (gop) when two excellant candidates (Wallace–Wiley) decided to run in this last election? Time to put up or shut up. Reach out, they are there.

Comment by anon Saturday, Nov 11, 06 @ 8:55 am
Some on this site look to Frank Watson and Tom Cross for leadership. I think this election shows that they are not capable of building the Republican party. Look at their recruits for public office in this election they got creamed. Hey guys get a clue rounding up liberal females with no political experience and running them for state rep and state senate is not the answer. Why not go back to your base main stream Republicans. Run people with ideas not just those that follow orders.

Comment by Chip Morgon Sunday, Nov 12, 06 @ 9:28 pm
Hey, Nickname, Russ Stewart predicted that Tony Peraica would win. I think that disqualifies him from the winner category.

“Indeed, a perfect political storm seems to be aligning itself to make Peraica the first Republican elected county board president since Dick Ogilvie in 1966.”

“In a turnout of 1.3 million voters, Peraica will win by 15,000 votes. Then expect 4 years of acrimony. If by 2009 Peraica’s reputation is that of gutsiness and determination, not ineptitude, he may be the logical Republican candidate for governor in 2010.”

He also predicted Duckworth would win.

Comment by Booyah! Monday, Nov 13, 06 @ 1:35 am
Anyone who has read Russ Stewart for any length of time knows he almost never fails to get it wrong. Except with Claypool and Stroger where he called it Claypool one month and Stroger the next. A truly novel way of predicting.

Comment by Garp Monday, Nov 13, 06 @ 2:06 pm