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January, 2017?

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Though the state has entered its seven month without a budget, one Republican lawmaker tells me the impasse between GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner and the Democratic-led legislature could stretch into NEXT January. Barrington Hills Rep. David McSweeney says he’s heard predictions the state could go without a budget until after the November election.

“It’s absolutely disgusting where we stand right now,” McSweeney says. The legislature begins its spring session on Wednesday.

Unless there’s some miracle, nothing’s gonna happen this January. If the final deal involves raising lots of taxes, then it’ll be tough finding votes until after the November election. So, January of next year is not outside the realm of possibilities.

However, if they do a Fiscal Year 2015-type budget deal (lots of sweeps and other one-time things, plus some cuts with no Turnaround Agenda items), then something could happen sooner.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 10:48 am

Comments

I think this is the “starve the beast” strategy of “I don’t care about governing, consequences, or anything else besides my tax bill” governing.

Comment by Anon Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 10:51 am
Even with more sweeps and cuts, unless there is a lot of borrowing, I don’t see anyway to make it add up without a tax increase.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 10:52 am
Rauner has a responsibility to set down with dems and negotiate a budget. He has 3 more years and the 2016 elections is the time for him to work towards his “turn around agenda”. Elections matter, and with a super majority of dems in both houses his turn around agenda is unrealistic. Governing is often about doing what is doable. Holding hostage a budget why he tries to overturn the will of the people is bazar and reckless.

Comment by Facts are Stubborn Things Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 10:54 am
So when Rauner goes back to campaigning after most of his first year in office campaigning how does he spin this — or the lack of any budget whatsoever during his term — as a positive? In what world — any world — does a so-called successful business person claim an inability to negotiate a budget a positive?

Or: will Rauner see this proof of no budget for a year, maybe more, probably for his entire term — as proof that well, because … Madigan?

I mean, at some point Rauner and his buddies must have a come-to-jesus moment where someone says, finally, look bud, you need to pass a budget. At least one.

Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 10:56 am
The courts will be a big player in this mess. You can only fund so much through sweeps and swaps.

Comment by Anon221 Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 10:58 am
Gross.

Comment by Just Me Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 10:59 am
There seems to be no seense of urgency or lack of cowardice in this processl…go to the Patch and stay until there is a deal. Do the job you signed on for…stop worrying about the next election. Will it be Ugly ? Yep ! Finish the work them go tell YOUR story to your constituents.

Comment by the Cardinal Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:00 am
I think I’m going to be sick.

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:05 am
give him a break guys. we’re witnessing the first time this man has ever failed.

Comment by Homer J. Quinn Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:12 am
I doubt the vendors, utility companies and others who are waiting on the State to pay them will patiently wait another year. I doubt college students anticipating Mapp grants will continue in school for another year.

So far this train wreak has managed to not shut down State government but another year of this is unlikely.

Comment by Sir Reel Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:13 am
I’m done predicting when a budget will be done. I’ve been wrong like everyone else and it seems that those on this thread are more upset with the situation than John Q. Public.

Comment by Stones Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:14 am
=== However, if they do a Fiscal Year 2015-type budget deal (lots of sweeps and other one-time things, plus some cuts with no Turnaround Agenda items), then something could happen sooner. ===

No one trusts the governor. Not to spend, and not to table his Turnaround Agenda.

Everyone has derided “one-time budget gimmicks.”

Including the rating agencies, who will take Rauner’s reliance on one-time revenue as a reason to downgrade.

And why would Democrats vote to permanently reduce spending mandated by the courts just to they can get a temporary relief to the backlog of unpaid bills? Because that is where any swept funds are going, to reduce borrowing.

No, I think Sweeney is right. Unless Rauner follows Fahner’s advice and drops his Turnaround Agenda, there will be no budget until January, 2017.

Comment by Juvenal Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:20 am
If Illinois had a Democrat governor with such an abysmal record on the first anniversary of his/her term, one could bet that the GOP would gleefully use the opportunity to develop an annual report highlighting those failures.
Illinois Democrats just do not take advantage of such occasions.
Maybe Democrats are more grown up. But what a missed opportunity.

Comment by Austin Blvd Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:21 am
To name two out of many being hurt, the budget impasse is killing IL’s healthcare system in IL. It is also killing colleges and universities.

Comment by Mama Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:23 am
“However, if they do a Fiscal Year 2015-type budget deal (lots of sweeps and other one-time things, plus some cuts with no Turnaround Agenda items), then something could happen sooner.”

What would be in such a deal for the Governor?

Comment by Boss Tweed Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:30 am
In a non-bullish but non-bearish sort of way, I could see November 2016 as a worst case scenario. Everything will be over - the President election, the U.S. Senate election, the Congressional elections (which are shaping up to be a bust) and all of the Statehouse elections. The tea leaves will have all been sifted, and one side could know full well whether it has the ammo and holds all the cards. If the HRO and Senate GOP campaigns get taken to the cleaners, then perhaps Governor Rauner may soften his stance. If the DPI and President Cullerton lose their super majorities, then perhaps they will soften their stances. I suppose anything is possible.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:37 am
I can’t really imagine the Dems giving anything on collective bargaining if they lose 1-2 senate seats and 3-4 House seats, though.

Comment by Boss Tweed Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:42 am
I’ve been walking precincts heavily now for the past 6 weeks, except Christmas week. Aside from here where it’s discussed daily, almost no one has brought up the state budget at all. The concept is simply lost on them. The people who have brought it up (and usually as an afterthought) have some connection to the teachers or state government. In 2500+ contacts, it’s come up fewer than 10 times. I’m surprised. BTW, it’s cold. Brrr.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:49 am
It is indeed possible that there will be no approved budget this year except k-12. Moreover, at some point the courts will decline to issue orders forcing the State to pay for programs without appropriations because courts deeply dislike governing and believe it exceeds their constitutional role.

Comment by Rod Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:59 am
Legislators ought to be ashamed to collect their paychecks when they can’t get done the basic responsiblility of passing a budget.

Comment by nona Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 12:12 pm
January 2017 is way too optimistic. I’m thinking January 2019 at the earliest, when there will be a new Governor.

We’ve reached depths that we’ve never reached before. Governor Rauner will not settle for rock bottom. He’s going to dig 30 feet below that and totally gut the State.

Comment by deadguy Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 12:20 pm
“Legislators ought to be ashamed to collect their paychecks when they can’t get done the basic responsiblility of passing a budget.”

They can’t pass what the governor doesn’t file. But hey, wait a minute, they did cobble together and pass one. The governor then vetoed all but one spending bill.

What were you saying again?

Comment by Nick Name Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 12:22 pm
Team, if any agreement is to happen it will be this summer or next year. The election will have an impact but the vote requirements will preclude any action prior to the new GA convening.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 12:37 pm
–I’ve been walking precincts heavily now for the past 6 weeks, except Christmas week. Aside from here where it’s discussed daily, almost no one has brought up the state budget at all. –

Back with that old gag, the Voice of the People (all living this time, right?).

The subject is in the newspapers, on the TV and on the radio every day all over the state.

What’s your point of pretending otherwise?

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 12:43 pm
=== wordslinger - Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 12:43 pm:

–I’ve been walking precincts heavily now for the past 6 weeks, except Christmas week. Aside from here where it’s discussed daily, almost no one has brought up the state budget at all. –

Back with that old gag, the Voice of the People (all living this time, right?).

The subject is in the newspapers, on the TV and on the radio every day all over the state.

What’s your point of pretending otherwise?====

Sorry pal. The “people” you disparage, just aren’t bringing it up. They have plenty to say, but the budget isn’t on the tips of their tongue. I don’t have to pretend. I’m out there freezing Mr. Bigglesworth.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 12:47 pm
deadguy-
We’ve reached depths that we’ve never reached before. Governor Rauner will not settle for rock bottom. He’s going to dig 30 feet below that and totally gut the State.

***
Yep, and then the real “fracking” begins.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 12:49 pm
We are going to get a budget as soon as our Governor decides he wants a budget.

He’s got the AV pen. As soon as he wants a budget, the Speaker will send him one and he can do as he pleases.

The problem is that I don’t think he wants one. People have claimed that Rauner is running IL like a business. That’s not true and in fact, its the exact opposite of what is occurring. He’s giving up revenue and running up expenses. No business can be run in that manner.

Instead, he’s running it like a religion. He has an almost faith-based view that anti-union legislation is the only way to save the state, and as such, the ongoing pain doesn’t seem to bother him. He seems to believe that if we just stay true to his anti-union faith, in the end we will have his view of salvation (a state freed of what he sees as the oppression of unions).

That near religious view makes it impossible for him to compromise. Facts do not matter. He believes what he believes and the very real ongoing problems he’s created do not seem to matter to him. It is faith over facts.

So when will we get a budget? As soon as the Gov. decides to deal with the reality of the situation, and actually apply some business sense to that problem.

Comment by Gooner Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 12:52 pm
A Guy - I agree, the regular public is generally aware of this situation, but they aren’t concerned about it. It isn’t really on their mind. This is hard for the invested people connected to government to fully grasp. Like the print media person expressing shock that Nixon lost because “everyone I know voted for McGovern.”

Comment by Junior Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 12:58 pm
Sorry….meant that Nixon won.

Comment by Junior Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 1:01 pm
What’s so magical about January 2017? Right now, both Madigan and Rauner think they are winning, and the elections won’t change that. Madigan might not have a supermajority, but he doesn’t really have one now. Is Madigan going to start dealing if he loses 10 seats (which he won’t)? Are those Republican lame-ducks going to vote for a tax increase against the wishes of Rauner? The most likely scenario is that both sides hold serve in 2016 and their positions remain unchanged.

Comment by Century Club Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 1:13 pm
Other than the 1% who will always support BVR, did anyone who voted for him ever see this coming? And how many of them who did vote for him would change their votes today?

Elections do have consequences and many of us knew that the game of politics would probably change with the new administration, but who would have expected this mess? The hostage taking is becoming serious and, frankly, I have no idea how this will ever end without the entire Turn Around Agenda ever being implemented - and I suppose that will miraculously solve all the problems we are having. Right!

Comment by illini Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 1:15 pm
Gooner- Well said.
A guy - The folks in the neighborhoods may not be talking budget, but I’ll bet you’re doing everything in your power to perpetuate the anti-Madigan message.

Comment by Austin Blvd Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 1:18 pm
==- A guy - Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:49 am:==

You’re making over 400 contacts per week on the doors? Okay…

Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 1:47 pm
+++Precinct Captain - Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 1:47 pm:

==- A guy - Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:49 am:==

You’re making over 400 contacts per week on the doors? Okay+++

I’ve got 3 people with me usually. Always at least 2. Saturday and Sunday. 4 hours each. Still too much for your math?

And those are contacts, not doors. Half are never home.

Austin, Where I’m walking, I don’t have to perpetuate the anti-Madigan message. They’ve already got it.

In some of these precincts, Madigan has paid in the past to perpetuate that message himself for his chosen candidate. I can only think of one district where pro-Madigan messages might work. To date, that’s all he’s needed.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 2:15 pm
==but they aren’t concerned about it. It isn’t really on their mind. This is hard for the invested people connected to government to fully grasp.==

Whether or not this situation is on voter’s minds is irrelevant to whether or not the situation needs to be resolved - which it does. I’m not sure what the point of the conversation is with regard to what the voters do and do not talk about.

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 3:20 pm
McSweeney is himself the proud leader of the chorus chanting “No tax increase” to the public. It’s a continuous refrain in communications to his own constituents right now.

That would stretch out any fiscal agreement, as many months as he would like to predict.

Comment by walker Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 3:28 pm
Demo, I agree whole-heartedly it needs to be solved.
My observation was that it’s not on the minds of voters. That’s where the pressure point should come from. They’re just not talking about it. Don’t really know why.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 3:31 pm
Just keep borrowing. Eventually you will be unable to borrow, then we can leave the Bond Holders holding the bag when we file for bankruptcy at the state level. Then all the pensions can be renegotiated and you emerge as a stronger state. Before you call me nuts, if nothing is done, eventually, that is how it will play out. We will only quibble about “when”. You need a vibrant and growing economy in Illinois to solve this problem, as well as the political will to fix the pension mess. Unfortunately, Illinois lacks both.

Comment by sloman2001 Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 3:45 pm
===…we file for bankruptcy at the state level.===

States can’t file bankruptcy. Please. Learn.

===We will only quibble about “when”.===

No. State’s can’t file for bankruptcy. Nothing to quibble about. Can’t.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 3:53 pm
ARTICLE VIII FINANCE

SECTION 2. STATE FINANCE
(a) The Governor shall prepare and submit to the General
Assembly, at a time prescribed by law, a State budget for the
ensuing fiscal year. The budget shall set forth the estimated
balance of funds available for appropriation at the beginning
of the fiscal year, the estimated receipts, and a plan for
expenditures and obligations during the fiscal year of every
department, authority, public corporation and quasi-public
corporation of the State, every State college and university,
and every other public agency created by the State, but not
of units of local government or school districts. The budget
shall also set forth the indebtedness and contingent
liabilities of the State and such other information as may be
required by law. Proposed expenditures shall not exceed funds
estimated to be available for the fiscal year as shown in the
budget.
(b) The General Assembly by law shall make
appropriations for all expenditures of public funds by the
State. Appropriations for a fiscal year shall not exceed
funds estimated by the General Assembly to be available
during that year.
(Source: Illinois Constitution.)

Comment by Duh Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 3:55 pm
== when we file for bankruptcy at the state level ==

- sloman2001 -,

You DO realize states are not allowed to declare bankruptcy?

Comment by RNUG Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 3:58 pm
Yes, I DO realize they are not permitted to file for bankruptcy. The point remains the same, down the road, no one except maybe the Feds, will lend any further money to this state. That’s the “WHEN”.

Comment by sloman2001 Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 4:10 pm
===The point remains the same,…===

No, it’s not even remotely the same.

The state will raise taxes. That’s how it works.

Your point has no point

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 4:23 pm
States can’t declare bankruptcy. So, why not borrow away. I think that’s how it’s going to come out. Apparently, the pols don’t want to vote for higher taxes because they fear for their political futures. The voters may not be saying much about state govt to precinct walkers, but somehow they must be communicating no more tax increases. So what are some easy buttons for our not-so-fearless pols. Fund sweeps (a given) and borrowing. Plenty of historical precedent for that, as neither party can deny. And plenty of investors to buy the debt, history also shows.

Comment by Cassandra Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 4:57 pm
I don’t doubt for a second but that Rauner’s plan all along has been to buy the 2016 elections and break unions through a budget he’ll get passed in January 2017, thus feathering the nest for his billionaire buddies. I have no ties to Madigan, but man, the phrase Checks and Balances sure comes to mind. Without Madigan, and John Cullerton, and the other Democrats in the General Assembly, Rauner would already have Walkerized Illinois.

Comment by Independent retiree/lawyer/journalist Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 6:05 pm
++Legislators ought to be ashamed to collect their paychecks when they can’t get done the basic responsiblility of passing a budget.++

Nona, the Dems legislators passed a budget back in the Spring, Rauner vetoed the whole thing with the exception of schools.

Comment by Mama Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 8:59 pm
++- Gooner - Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 12:52 pm: ++
Gooner, you hit the nail squarely on the head. He will never admit his TA/beliefs are wrong.

Comment by Mama Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 9:10 pm
Mama I think you forgot the part about the budget passed by the legislature was 4 billion out of balance.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Jan 11, 16 @ 11:13 pm

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