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Duckworth outraises Kirk, but there’s a catch

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Illinois

Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) outraised Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk (R) by almost $600,000 in the fourth quarter of 2015, as the two gear up for what could be one of the tightest elections of 2016.

Duckworth brought in $1.6 million in the quarter, which bumps up her cash on hand to $3.65 million.

Kirk raised $1 million in the quarter, ending 2015 with $3.8 million on hand. […]

Duckworth ended the third quarter with about $2.85 million in her bank account, compared to Kirk’s $3.63 million. She all but closed that gap to end the year, suggesting a more effective quarter of fundraising by the challenger. […]

Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) both raised more than $2 million over the same span ahead of similarly difficult reelection bids.

Pretty impressive numbers for Duckworth, but she will likely have to spend a bunch of that haul on her primary race against Andrea Zopp and state Sen. Napoleon Harris.

Kirk, on the other hand, has only token GOP opposition. Even so, his 4th quarter numbers are not particularly heartening.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jan 13, 16 @ 1:19 pm

Comments

=== but she will likely have to spend a bunch of that haul on her primary race===

Why? Did Harris give up his status as “the other African-American” in the race?

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Jan 13, 16 @ 1:21 pm
Kirk’s numbers will go up once the Democrats choose a candidate. He is no Durbin, who can raise millions even without political opposition.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jan 13, 16 @ 1:24 pm
You are just jaded. You watch and see what James Marter does with his $900.

Comment by Cynical Wednesday, Jan 13, 16 @ 1:29 pm
I have not seen any polling on the Democratic Primary but I have seen a lot of Andrea Zopp yard signs in Springfield. I don’t know what it means, just something I have noticed.

Comment by Ahoy! Wednesday, Jan 13, 16 @ 1:34 pm
Both sides will be chock-full of cash come April…

As a measuring stick to Kirk;

Not “great”, but Kirk is one of a very, very, very small number of people Bruce Rauner actually “owes”, and that chit Kirk has will be cashed… for cash.

Duckworth, come April, will get many to “max out” on her campaign, party monies, PAC monies… simlpy because she will be challenging the #1 GOP Target.

This race… the over/under is $150 million spent by the end.

Psst, take the “over”

Artl,

I’m with ya, but ya gotta get some more cash in the bank now so it appears things are rolling, while waiting for your big cash to be there when it’s needed most.

Cannoli,

OW

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 13, 16 @ 1:40 pm
–Kirk’s numbers will go up once the Democrats choose a candidate.–

The question is how much.

The smart money has 10 of 24 GOP seats legitimately in play this year, only two of 10 Dem seats.

GOP seats in play include big-money TV market states including Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Of the ten GOP seats in play, I’m guessing Kirk is last on the money priority list, given his narrow win in a GOP wave year and how Illinois scews Dem in a presidential year.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 13, 16 @ 1:48 pm
Cynical - thanks for the laugh. James Marter’s supporters are out in full force on social media and reminding everyone that Mr. Marter is the “real Republican” in the race.

The cash on hand is pretty even, which helps soften the blow.

I often wonder if Kirk meant to run for reelection. He could have easily accrued way more than $3.8 million in 5+ years, but I firmly believe that he may have intended to retire. Only when no seemed interested in the mantle and when the token “I HATE MARK KIRK” opposition rolled up did he seem to really kick his butt into high gear. Between his health and his massive staffing exodus to Governor Rauner and various state agencies, that makes sense and makes me wonder where his totals had been if he truly tried and raised money in, say, 2012 or 2013.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Jan 13, 16 @ 2:21 pm
1. I think some of this race is TBD depending upon what happens at the level above it.

2. Every 4 years we hear x touted Democrat will beat Kirk because the area is democratic and there’s a democrat on top of the ticket who will drive up the democratic base. Seals nearly beat Kirk in 2006 and in the 2008 with Obama out still couldn’t close.

3. Quarterly fundraising #s aren’t what they were before citizens united. There will be millions and millions spent by outside groups on this and there’s endless political science that suggests at a certain point of spending on both sides, it’s not a determining factor. Duckworth needs to show how she’ll get those last 1-3 percent of voters to beat kirk none of his opponents in the past have been able to get for me to take her seriously.

Comment by Shore Wednesday, Jan 13, 16 @ 2:31 pm