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Question of the day

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Illinois

* Do you think President Obama’s Statehouse visit next month might help somehow break the long governmental impasse? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.

surveys & polls

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:46 pm

Comments

Heck no. Gov. Rauner doesn’t give two &*@$s about what Pres. Obama says, does, thinks, opines, cares, knows, etc. etc. Gov. Rauner is not going to give up the Turnaround Agenda because the President of the United States came to town.

Comment by L.A. Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:49 pm
The visit itself? No way. Obama working through back channels to try to put pressure? Maybe.

Comment by Doofman Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:50 pm
not a chance. rauner won’t even be listening.

Comment by Homer J. Quinn Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:52 pm
Mr. Speaker O’Neill: All politics are local. And this budget fight is about as local (and personal) as it gets. Don’t see Mr. Obama as having much leverage here at all.

Comment by OFFM Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:53 pm
No, neither side will move. The Repubs are too entrenched behind Rauner and the Dems are too entrenched in their cause. Obama will talk a good game and people will talk bi-partisan but in the end it won’t be the straw that breaks the camels back.

Comment by Spliff Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:54 pm
Nope. It’s not the president’s job. He has enough on his plate. Plus, the gov wouldn’t cede his control for anyone. The crisis ends when he says it ends… at least until after the election.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:55 pm
If anything the Federal shaming will harden positions.

Comment by Honeybear Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:55 pm
Yes because it is possible, though not likely. I don’t expect Rauner to be swayed by anyone, but I hope that some legislators might decide to become more reasonable.

Comment by illinoised Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:56 pm
Going to say yes. He will come in and talk about the importance of redistricting reform, and since the Republicans are naturally inclined to say no to everything the President wants, it will get dropped from the Turnaround Agenda by April.

But in all seriousness, no. The Governor is not going to be moved by whatever he has to say, and the Speaker is not really a fan of the President. (Remembering when he said “the Messiah hasn’t called me yet” when asked if he was going to endorse Alexi)

Comment by Juice Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:57 pm
Rauner will use it support redistricting reform and identify with POTUS facing a hostile legislative branch.

Madigan will use it support social programs and identify with POTUS calls for social welfare.

Rauner and Madigan’s ==war== will continue, in contrast to the President’s speech.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:57 pm
No. Although it would be nice to bring more national attention to our crumbling mess of a state. But none of Obama’s former GOP colleagues will be swayed by him.

Comment by Pawn Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:58 pm
It is unifying in this regard…MJM & Gov don’t like Obama.

Comment by Springfield Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:59 pm
Not unless he brings his sleeping bag!

I think FKA has it right - both sides cherry pick from the speech to justify their side and continue the stalemate.

Comment by Century Club Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 1:59 pm
Voted no. It seems unlikely that the presidential visit would have more of an impact than the all the meetings, and all the time that has passed so far this fiscal year.

Comment by AC Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:00 pm
If I may pull off a Doug Dinsdale here…

No, because Gov. Rauner is the best, brightest, smartest man in the room. He knows what’s best for governin’ an’ leadin’, and much more so than a mere president.

Comment by Northsider Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:00 pm
Not unless he’s bringing a Wall street sized bailout bag with him.

Comment by Jeff Trigg Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:02 pm
It took me a minute, but I voted no.

President Obama has a lot in common with Governor Rauner. No, not policy or ideology. But they both have dealt with legislative bodies that oppose a great deal of what they want done.

This is not a blanket endorsement of Governor Rauner’s policy agenda or a jab at President Obama. That is just the way it is.

Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:04 pm
No, it won’t change Rauner’s mind; he’ll only hear the parts he agrees with.

It MIGHT change the minds of a few legislators.

Whether Obama goes beyond words to action(s) will depend on how badly he feels a need to resume polish his legacy.

Comment by RNUG Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:05 pm
No. Rauner Does.Not.Care.

But I’d bet he will be there to be seen and say he’s willing to work with Democrats for a budget resolution.

Comment by Finally Out (and now very glad to be) Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:05 pm
The Obama administration could lean on Madigan to compromise some out of concern the impasse would detract from his speech.

That would help break the impasse, but is not likely.

Many journos will cover the Prez delivering a speech about making peace while his own home state party cannot make peace in the very same chamber he speaks in.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:08 pm
No, Team Sleep said it much better than I ever could.

Comment by Blue dog dem Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:08 pm
I think it might in a backdoor sort of way. I think his speech will focus primarily on the problems in Chicago; crimes, education, debt, etc. To address those issues, you need a budget. The President will have to offer suggestions on how to achieve those goals.

Comment by Casual observer Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:10 pm
In Illinois, no. However, the symbolism of coming to Abraham Lincoln’s home a few days before his birthday to likely give a speech on the ill effects of partisanship and it’s divisiveness could get some people thinking nationally.

There’s no honor in what they’re doing anymore. At some point, someone in Springfield needs to step up.

Comment by The Muse Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:10 pm
The President is NOT going to talk about local state issues, like a budget. How ridiculous would that be?

Comment by Tone Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:13 pm
Then again, it is also the ideal setting to give such a speech. Where better to do so? And who better a sitting governor to serve in contrast to his comments than Rauner?

Some of this depends on what he says and how he does so.

fwiw, thanks @Century Club. 1:57 is what will probably happen imho, but anything is possible.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:15 pm
It will draw even more national attention to the budget impasse and multiple human crises surrounding it. For whatever that’s worth.

Comment by tmfbitu Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:16 pm
No - reread Rauner’s statement.
It begins by demonstrating to his supporters that he and the President don’t agree. Obama is a lame duck. Rauner thinks he has bigger ducks to roast.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:17 pm
Both sides will only hear the parts they already agree with. Obama might not have all that much to say about the IL budget impasse. It’s not a national issue. Could just as well be about, for example, gun deaths in Chicago, whether from police or between citizens. Those are subjects he’s already pushing.

Comment by X-prof Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:20 pm
I don’t doubt the power of the president’s bully pulpit, but the problem in Springfield isn’t a lack of bullying.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:21 pm
President Obama might be able to move some Ds to a better politics on some issues. Probably can’t move the Rs much, who don’t have any political incentive in listening to him.

Take the redistricting and term limits for example. If he addresses those issue, Madigan is going to look really bad and tone deaf if the president calls for getting those done.

Comment by Flannery Fan Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:21 pm
I do not see his visit changing anything. This fight is between Rauner and Madigan, neither will be swayed by outside influences.

Comment by FormerParatrooper Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:24 pm
No chance- Just the opposite…could make it worse. Results of that question would be telling

Comment by Yo Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:25 pm
I don’t think it’s going to directly sway everyone to negotiate, but it will put a national spotlight on this whole mess. Maybe that’ll apply a little bit of pressure.

Comment by Moby Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:26 pm
I said yes because I hope it does.

Comment by Just Me Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:28 pm
Voted no, because of whats been said in the comments so far. I’d venture to say it could even polarize sides even more.

Comment by Joe M Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:29 pm
I wish it would make a difference but sadly, I said no.
Rauner wants to do what he wants to do. He has an agenda and he is sticking to it. He is certain that he is right and no one is going to change is mind.

Comment by Belle Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:31 pm
I don’t think Abe Lincoln coming back to Springfield could break the impasse

Comment by Montana Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:31 pm
I voted ‘yes’. After the pope spoke to Congress, John Boehner decided to resign.
Obama is no Pope Francis.
The Speaker is no John Boehner.
But miracles still happen!

Comment by Lincoln Lad Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:32 pm
No. Why would it? Rauner doesn’t care about anyone but his rich buddies and breaking up the unions. He isn’t going to back off of that.

Comment by CrazyHorse Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:35 pm
Well heck yeah! Ever since the passing of Obamacare, DC has been free of any partisan bickering & devoid of any gridlock. Certainly this President should come and offer his insights and pass along his experiences.

P.S. Incidentally, have some here forgotten where Obama honed his craft?

Comment by Georg Sande Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:37 pm
Voted “Yes, it could”

“Why?!”

Anything could help. Will it help, I don’t think so, but it “could” help, because anything is possible if all sides decide…

… to do the doable.

No hostages “could help”, trust “could help”, even a native son President speaking “could help”

Gotta want to be helped, gotta want to find solutions too… solutions that are doable.

Voted, “Yes, it could”

Remember, believing sometimes just isn’t knowing.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:38 pm
No- Gov. Rauner does.not.care.what Pres. Obama has to say. Rauner is the anti-Obama.

Comment by Former Hoosier Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:40 pm
A House divided against itself is called Illinois.

Comment by IllinoisBoi Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:44 pm
I voted “Yes, it could” because at this point nothing else is left. The state has put the elderly and infirmed on the street, placed young children back into harm’s way, and turned its collective back on every citizen, rural or urban, of the state.

Comment by Citizen A Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:44 pm
Why would Barack Obama help?

Jesus, Mohammed and the Buddha could descend on a fiery cloud in Rauner’s office and Rauner would immediately call security because these guys obviously don’t run in his circle of billionaires (look at how they’re dressed) and because all three are probably pretty firm believers in unions.

Comment by LBJ Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:46 pm
No chance. If the Father, the Son and the Holy Ghost came to talk about bipartisanship Rauner would dismiss them as “Mike Madigan and the deities he controls.”

Comment by And I Approved This Message Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:47 pm
Obama hates almost everything heavy-fisted Madigan stands for politically, and disliked him when in the Senate. He can’t wait to move elsewhere after his Presidency. He’s more likely to ding Madigan than Rauner.

Comment by Formerpol Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:47 pm
No; I just can’t think of a mechanism in which it would, unless, as mentioned above, he came bearing gifts.

It would be great if he did, but also sort of embarrassing, since that’d mean a speech and meet-and-greet would mean more than an unfunded higher education system and a collapsing human-services system. I’ll take what I can get, but geez.

Comment by whetstone Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:48 pm
I voted no. I don’t believe that Rauner cares what the President has to say. He certainly does not share the President Obama’s social views. However, if the President starts dropping his g’s, maybe Rauner will listen.

Comment by Flynn's Mom Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:48 pm
It will be a nice day, full of pomp and circumstance, and then life will go on as usual.

Comment by Red Ranger Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 2:51 pm
LOL- this president has been perhaps the most divisive figure in American politics in the last 100 years so how is it he would be coming to Illinois to bring people together. The presidents legacy is all he care about and it is in his interest to keep politics at a boil thru November. To help keep his base exercised so they vote

Comment by Sue Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:07 pm
Sue: You just made my point (mic drop).

Comment by Tell the truth Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:09 pm
NO-Rauner.

Comment by downstate commissioner Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:13 pm
Until we have a better idea of what he’s going to say, it’s really pointless to speculate about any potential effect he might have. It’s rather an unprecedented move, so the message definitely matters.

Comment by The Man on 6 Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:18 pm
Nope. It will be a nice cordial visit. And then it will be over. He’ll provide a break for a day. If something is already cooking by then, maybe it will help. But otherwise, just don’t see it making any difference in this regard.

Comment by A guy Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:19 pm
The only people that will be paying attention to Obama will be the people that already like him, aka the Democrats. Everyone will be polite and agree that the whole thing needs to end, but then it’ll go back to the status quo the next day.

Obama has a better chance cracking the gridlock in his final year in D.C. than he does in Springfield, in the sense that something that won’t happen in a million years is more likely than something that won’t happen in a billion years.

Comment by TJ Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:29 pm
In a holy war, another soldier won’t matter.

Comment by Dr X Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:33 pm
I voted yes thinking he might be able to talk some sense into Ken Dunkin.

Comment by Mama Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:33 pm
He would listen to Ken Griffin or Sam Zell…but I don’t think Obama’s net worth is in the billions.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:37 pm
I voted Yes, it could. Especially if he brings a check for $111 billion to pay the pension debt.

Probably a long shot, right?

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:44 pm
No, Rauner will twist whatever Obama says as supportive of his Turnaround Agenda. What’s left to wonder about is how Ken Dunkin gets a photo op with the Prez and Madigan.

Comment by Wensicia Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:53 pm
I voted no because I don’t think his appearance alone will move things. But I am glad to know we have his attention and I am praying that the few things that can be done by the feds to put pressure on this hostage situation will be done and soon. His visit gives me a little more hope today that perhaps federal pressure is coming.

Comment by CCP Hostage Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 3:56 pm
No.
He could come in and talk about redistricting and term limits but he won’t, because he’s here to help the side that doesn’t want that.
He could talk about McDonald, but he won’t throw his buddy under the bus.
My guess is it’s like most of his speeches, lots of broad talk about things everyone agrees with and coming together without ever saying anything specific. Maybe he talks about violence and how other states could follow Illinois’ lead with universal background checks for gun purchases (which we kind of have) or push for some kind of new gun control that isn’t going anywhere (assault weapon ban?).
Or he just says enough to fire up the base and keep them strong and together with Madigan through November.

Comment by mcb Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 4:02 pm
I think it will congeal an already cold situation.

Comment by Dome Gnome Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 4:04 pm
But what if he comes to announce he’s pardoning Blago??!! That would give us all something else to focus on and be the news story of the year. How much more entertaining would the stalemate be with Rod free and out giving interviews?

Comment by mcb Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 4:06 pm
It’s all on Madigan. You remember. The guy who would derisively refer to Obama as “the Messiah” back in 2007-08. The guy who is smarter than everyone else. Who has all the answers. Rauner, who won statewide office, has shown a willingness to compromise on so many issues. Madigan, frozen in amber thanks to a few thousand voters, will not move.

Comment by Bored Chairman Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 4:06 pm
I answered yes because I am an optimist. When I saw the results, I wasn’t expecting to see so much snark in our world.

Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 4:07 pm
No. He will give a condescending lecture blaming Rauner and any and all republicans and then he will leave. nothing changes.

Comment by Tequila Mockingbird Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 4:24 pm
I agree Obama may be coming to fire up the base, but that’s probably for the D presidential candidate and federal legislators, not state district races.

He could latch onto Chicago as the poster child for more gun control nationally but that argument doesn’t hold up logically.

Maybe he could use Chicago as a call for a jobs program to eliminate poverty and violence, which would be ironic given the cuts occurring at the state level in the social safety net.

As far as a Blago pardon, if it were to happen, a signature on the way out the door a year from now would make more sense timing wise.

While it’s fun to speculate, we’ll just have to wait and see what actually gets said …

Comment by RNUG Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 4:25 pm
There are basically 3 ways out of the impasse:

- Republicans break with Rauner
- Dems break with Madigan
- Rauner & Madigan embrace Jesus as their personal savior

The only path that’s even open to Obama is the first one - somehow rallying a group of Democrats to a new compromise position. I’m not saying he can, will or should do that. I’d be surprised if he saw that as a desirable outcome. But President Obama is irrelevant at best, or counterproductive to the other two ways out.

Comment by some doofus Friday, Jan 29, 16 @ 4:53 pm