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* From WalletHub…
Hi Rich,
With Black History Month and the South Carolina primaries taking place in February, the personal finance website WalletHub conducted an in-depth analysis of 2016’s States with the Highest Political Engagement Among Blacks.
To determine where black Americans are most engaged in the political process, WalletHub’s analysts compared the 48 states across six key metrics. They include black voter turnout and registration during the most recent midterm and presidential elections as well as the proportional representation of blacks in the state legislature and national party conventions.
Political Engagement of Blacks in Illinois (1=Most Politically Engaged; 24=Avg.)
4th – Black Voter Turnout (2012 Presidential Election)
17th – Black Voter Turnout (2014 Midterm Elections)
7th – Black Voter Registration (2012 Presidential Election)
31st – Black Voter Registration (2014 Midterm Elections)
1st – Proportional Representation of Blacks in State LegislatureFor the full report, please visit:
https://wallethub.com/edu/where-are-blacks-most-least-politically-engaged/19026/
Look at that horrible number for 2014 voter registration. Pat Quinn’s campaign depended on a heavy African-American turnout, which didn’t happen, and high voter registration, which also didn’t happen. It was a complete failure.
* That last number is pretty interesting to me. I’ve been told by African-American legislators that their counterparts in other states are often amazed at how many black people are in the Illinois General Assembly. It’s one reason why some African-American leaders here are skeptical of the remap reformers’ intentions. They have built something that no one else has matched, and they don’t want it taken away.
…Adding… Speaking of which…
With 11 weeks remaining in the petition drive for redistricting reform, the Independent Maps coalition has exceeded the 507,500 petition signatures collected in the 2014 effort and is on target to reach the new coalition’s goal of 600,000 signatures.
“Support for the Independent Map Amendment has been phenomenal,” said Dennis FitzSimons, Chair of Independent Maps. “We’ve collected 510,000 signatures so far and will turn in many more signatures than the previous campaign, which fell short of the number needed to qualify for the ballot. We’re confident our petition signatures – well in excess of the required 290,216 signatures – will withstand challenges by opponents of reform.”
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 9:09 am
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Rich - great point. It’s not just Chicago either. Look at the suburbs, Rockford, Peoria, Champaign-Urbana, and Metro East.
Comment by Grass Bowl Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 9:11 am
Agree with the AA lawmakers opinion. I just don’t see under any remap scenario representation of minorities being what it is right now.
Comment by Corporate Thug Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 9:22 am
Note the differences between mid-term and presidential election years.
Note the results of the 2010 Senate election, a historic national GOP wave year:
Kirk: 1.78 million, 48.0%
Alex: 1.72 million 46.4%
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 9:28 am
And of course, 9 African American US Senators in all of history, 3 of whom represented Illinois. Till 2013, the stat was actually 3 of 6. Even if Roland is a bit of an asterisk (as is one of the non-Illinoisans), it’s an amazing stat.
Sadly, the contrast depends mostly on the failures of the rest of the nation. Still, it’s impressive.
Comment by some doofus Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 9:30 am
In keeping with my comment about the success of African Americans in US Senate races, I think there are hints that African Americans can do very well in un-gerrymandered districts here. The trick being that some of the African Americans currently in the legislature may not be the same people who would thrive in a new district setting.
That’s a legitimate concern, but I think it highlights one perspective on their concern over remap reform - they’re not that different from every other legislator. Their strongest motive is not “we might lose districts” but “I might lose my district.”
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 9:35 am
I cannot vouch for this of my own information, but I have read in a number of places that, nationwide, redistricting has become a kind of bargain where minority-super-majority districts are created to guarantee that minorities win those seats, and as a consequence Democratic votes tend to be concentrated so the Democratic Party as a whole wins fewer seats than it otherwise might, so Republicans are OK with conceding some seats to (usually) Democratic minority people.
The numbers, nationwide, seem to bear this out. Not so much in IL, because the IL GOP is a joke.
I can’t say what is in the heads of the “reformers” but I am sure they are scaring the minority elected officials and GOP strategistst who benefit from th4e current system.
Comment by Harry Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 9:37 am
That is an interesting point in how well remapping to help representation of minority communities has worked.
I am still skeptical as to if this is good for desegregation. U.S. AG Holder used to talk about getting to know one another. I am not sure that is possible while we continue to draw maps that deliminate our communities.
Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 9:48 am
Well…when you manage your campaign like Pat Quinn does, things fall through the cracks. He was super lucky in 2010.
Word - that is a telling stat, and Kirk is in legit trouble. Lake County played a huge role in Kirk’s election in 2010 and Rauner’s primary win in 2014.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 10:06 am
2012 was also the first time the black voter turnout rate exceeded the white voter turnout rate.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 10:17 am
Term limits would also absolutely reduce the number of black lawmakers in Illinois.
Comment by LoneWolf Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 10:20 am
The counterpoint to the significant black representation in Illinois legislature is the under-representation of Asian-Americans and Latinos. I think overall, the benefits of the fair map amendment outweigh the detriments.
Comment by Chicagonk Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 10:28 am
I once challenged Quinn at a pubic forum, when he was lieutenant governor, about the Cutback Amendment and what it had meant for Illinois (I tend to favor proportional representation). He zeroed right in on the question of minority representation and said breaking the districts down in size through that amendment had been critical in boosting minority representation, which had been diluted by the old 59-seat map. I’d be interested to see how widely that understanding is shared by others.
In any case I share the idea that at least here, the districting and term limit reform proposals are not what they seem, and look to me more of a partisan attempt to influence the process than a good-faith effort at breaking the dysfunction in our politics.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 10:31 am
Emil Jones deserves a lot of the credit for the high number of African Americans (and Latinos) serving in the legislature today.
Comment by The Other Real Donald Trump Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 10:32 am
Mike Madigan also deserves a lot of credit. Without the Speaker’s political skills in the 1990’s and his big tent view of Democratic politics, the map allowing large numbers of minorities to opportunity serve would not be what it is today.
Comment by The Other Real Donald Trump Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 10:36 am
The myth continues. First, gerrymandering to produce elected minority representatives does not equate to maximizing minority political power. To repeat my favorite example: Hispanics would be the plurality voting block, and thus power brokers, in two congressional districts if the 4th district wasn’t contorted to guarantee the election of at least one.
Minorities are also arguably hurt by the radicalization that gerrymandering has produced. If some African-American voters get placed in a more conservative district, they might be able to swing a district from a GOP Tea Partier to a centrist Dem, or motivate a GOP candidate to move to the center.
Oh, speaking of Hispanics, how often is gerrymandering to produce African-American districts done at the expense of Hispanic voters? Isn’t that how it worked for alderman in the last Chicago remap?
But all of this is dwarfed by a simple principle: politicians should not be able to render some votes effectively meaningless, PERIOD.
Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 10:53 am
==The counterpoint to the significant black representation in Illinois legislature is the under-representation of Asian-Americans and Latinos.==
No way.
First of all, IL is in a five-way tie for African-American proportionality in representation.
Second, look up the word “proportionality.” That’s not necessarily coming at the expense of other racial and ethnic groups. African-American representation in the GA mirrors the population of the state almost exactly.
Now, if other groups are underrepresented, it means that someone is over-represented.
Who?
Well, white non-Hispanics make up 20% more of the General Assembly than their share of the state population. That’s the counterpoint to underrepresentation.
Yet no one, including remap proponents, seems to anticipate that the remap will take away white seats. Odd.
Comment by crazybleedingheart Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 11:08 am
==gerrymandering to produce African-American districts done at the expense of Hispanic voters==
This lie sure does stick around, though, doesn’t it.
Comment by crazybleedingheart Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 11:09 am
Thank you so much Rich for posting this! This is of great interest to me and my local. This made me realize that 1805 needs to organize a voter registration drive in St. Clair county!
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 11:15 am
Crazy - according to the U.S. Census Bureau, the Hispanic population in Illinois is great than the African-American population in Illinois. The difference as of late 2014 is 2%, which in a state the size of Illinois is about 250,000-260,000 people. That is essentially one Senate district and two House districts. Illinois has one Hispanic official (Guitierrez), one Asian official (Duckworth) and three African-American officials (Rush, Kelly and Davis) at the federal level. So just going on pure empirical data - and yes, I know that is leaving out population clusters - at the federal level at least the Hispanic population in Illinois is underrepresented.
And, to show my work, here you go:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17000.html
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 11:19 am
Andy Shaw had a good interview with Greg Bishop this morning, and he mirrored exactly what I said Monday or yesterday: the opposite feeling is true in other states. Dems are being left out and gerrymandered together for the sake of elected GOP officials to Congress. If we treat this like a federal issue, local groups and Bloomberg’s consortium know that both parties would be impacted nationally if this is done with a broad brush.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 11:22 am
Also - not to leave the state out of it - I just added up some info. Illinois has four Hispanic state senators and ten African-American state senators.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 11:29 am
== So just going on pure empirical data - and yes, I know that is leaving out population clusters - at the federal level at least the Hispanic population in Illinois is underrepresented.==
Team Sleep,
13 of 18 US Representatives
and
2 of 2 US Senators
Are white non-Hispanics, despite the fact that only 64% of the population fits that description.
up Hispanic seats.
Comment by crazybleedingheart Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 11:34 am
Crazy - in no way was I arguing that we should NOT up Hispanic representation. They deserve MORE representation at the federal and state levels.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 11:39 am
Great. Let’s do that, then.
Which white reps do you think will be cut?
Again, the black reps are almost perfectly proportional, while whites are overrepresented.
Comment by crazybleedingheart Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 11:42 am
@crazybleedingheart
Maybe the rep from the 22nd. (obvious sarcasm)
Comment by Chicagonk Wednesday, Feb 17, 16 @ 12:45 pm