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* The Pew Charitable Trusts’ “Fiscal 50” interactive has updated its 50-state employment data…
Employment Rates Inch Closer to Prerecession Levels
The U.S. employment rate for adults of prime working age has been rising for four years, and the number of states with lower employment rates than before the Great Recession has been shrinking. Despite these signs of improvement, however, the labor market had not completely recovered from the economic downturn by mid-2015.
* Illinois is above the national average and, believe it or not, is ahead of Texas in the chart entitled “Employment Rate for Prime-age Workers by State, FY 2015″…
* But we’re not doing extraordinarily well in the “Percentage-point Change in Employment Rate, CY 2007 to FY 2015″…
Something’s gotta change here, man.
[And, yes, I read that second chart wrong, but it’s still not great.]
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:03 am
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Interesting though since we are always compared to Wisconsin and Indiana and they are offered as examples as to what should be done and they are doing worse in the percentage point change in employment than we are.
Comment by illlinifan Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:07 am
This reflects what is so sad about the mess we’re in. Illinois isn’t the economic catastrophe Rauner makes it out to be, but can improve.
Unfortunately, instead of finding doable improvements, Rauner is fixated on his Quixotic ideological quest to destroy organized labor and thus the Democratic party.
Sad.
Comment by Sir Reel Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:08 am
Illinois job recovery is going on not because of Rauner, but in spite of Rauner.
Comment by DuPage Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:13 am
Interesting that Iowa and Minnesota hold positions #1 and #3 for their employment rates with marginal personal income tax rates of 8.98% and 9.85% (vs. Illinois at 3.75%). Must be those job-killing tax increases at work?
Comment by X-prof Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:14 am
Again behind Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri and Indiana. Shocking. IF: The difference in percentage change is probably because we started so much lower than the rest. I’d say Iowa having the highest employment rate in the country isn’t exactly an indictment of how they’re doing things there.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:14 am
illlinifan +1 & X-prof +1
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:17 am
I also think we need to move away from unemployment rates as our metric. Soccerdaughter has a degree from a fancy university and is making 10 an hour, working 70 hours a week. Not sustainable - but she doesn’t show up in the unemployment stats.
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:18 am
I wonder whether this factors in the labor participation rate. The other factor is whether the jobs are “sustaining” or are they just low wage jobs? It’s good that people are getting jobs but I’m so so scared we’re digging ourselves deeper.
Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:22 am
Hey, layoffs at human service providers and higher ed should help. After all, those are not real jobs, right, Bruce? Bruce?
Comment by Pawn Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:23 am
The charts are a little confusing. The second one is listed in order of the highest negative job growth, meaning we are actually above average in both categories.
The U.S. employment rate is 77.2% while Illinois’ is 78.5% (Ranking: 25th). The U.S. change in employment rate is -2.7 while Illinois’ is -2.0 (Ranking: 16th).
Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:23 am
We cannot change demographics.
We have a higher percentage of Boomers retiring from jobs that are being discontinued. We can’t benefit from sub-3% national economic growth. Comparing us to other states reveals that we aren’t the only ones challenged by this demographic.
The good news is that Boomers will finish retiring and the decline is already flattening out as the majority of them are now out of the job field. As they age out and die off, Illinois will have fewer structural deficits due to the sheer magnitude of this generation.
We all knew this was going to happen long ago. Boomers were supposed to be funded by inflation that never came back after 1984 when they signed onto their pension plans. They are the big winners, but planning for this stuff is a gamble they could have lost just as badly.
Bottom line - this is a temporary problem that will begin seeing an end by 2020 - which is only four years away.
You don’t forced permanent changes without really knowing the secondary consequences, just for a temporary generational trend.
Stay the course and have faith in each other and in Illinois. Don’t let the rich flush our future away. Remember, the guy pushing for his “Turnaround Agenda” has retired too, and he’s got nowhere to go but into one of his own nursing homes he gutted to make a dime.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:23 am
We focus on the BIG employment news of this state (Mitsubishi, Deere, etc.) However, small business owners are the ones that really drive employment increases and decreases - across the country.
Every small business owner I speak with feels very UNLOVED in this state. Many are afraid to expand because of the increasing and politicized levels of bureaucracy in Illinois.
It’s not always “tax rates” with these business owners. But rather, what is the culture for small business investment and expansion?
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:27 am
The bottom chart shows the change in employment since 2007. The US is down 2.7%, but Illinois is down 2.0%. The bottom of the chart shows the states that are catching up better than the nation as a whole. That includes Illinois.
Since the chart is in percentages of the prime workforce, it doesn’t reflect changes in that workforce overall. Since Illinois has a declining population for the last two years the percentages will improve by even if the workforce stays the same or shrinks at a rate less than the population decline.
Comment by muon Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:29 am
=== But we’re not doing well in the “Percentage-point Change in Employment Rate, CY 2007 to FY 2015″ ===
There’s certainly room for improvement, but we’re doing better than the national average on this stat at 16th out of 50 states. That’s actually a better rank than for the first stat. Lower down on the second chart is better, right? All states except Iowa and Michigan still show net job losses, and our job losses are smaller than the national average.
Comment by X-prof Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:31 am
I’m reading that second chart as “better-than” national average for Illinois, though “not statistically significant.”
The Illinois employment rate declined 2.1 percentage points, from 80.6% to 78.5%.
The national employment rate declined 2.7 percentage points, from 79.9% to 77.2%
At the “top” of the list is New Mexico, where the employment rate declined 7.2 percentage points, 79.1% to 71.9%.
The smaller the decline, the higher the employment rate, the better — correct?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:32 am
Make sure to hover over the bar and see the trend over time. Illinois has a u-shaped curve and rates are still rising, not declining as it might appear.
Comment by NoGifts Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:34 am
“they are doing worse in the percentage point change in employment than we are.”
No — the second chart shows the decrease (negative) in employment rates over the period. The closer a state is to the BOTTOM of that list, the “better” it did. The only two states to show a percentage INCREASE in employment for that period were Michigan and Iowa — at the very bottom of the list. (Iowa must really be doing something right)
Comment by Secret Square Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:40 am
Also, both these charts refer strictly to “prime age” (25-54) employment rates so retiring Baby Boomers are less of a factor than they are in the overall employment or labor participation rates.
Comment by Secret Square Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:44 am
==Every small business owner I speak with feels very UNLOVED in this state. Many are afraid to expand because of the increasing and politicized levels of bureaucracy in Illinois.
It’s not always “tax rates” with these business owners. But rather, what is the culture for small business investment and expansion?–
Please define “unloved,” “increasing and politicized levels of bureaucracy,” and “culture” in quantifiable terms if you’re going to discuss economics.
Otherwise, they’re just weasel-word empty vessels that you can fill up with whatever your politics are.
I’m pretty sure expansion occurs when you’re selling more of your goods or services, regardless of whether you’re “unloved” by the state or its “culture.”
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:44 am
Sorry, 10:44 was me.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:47 am
No Gifts - Good point.
It will be interesting to revisit these curves next year. I think there’s a good chance we’ll see a Rauner downturn for 2016. The immediate effects of his tenure (no budget, a dramatic spike in the state’s debt, layoffs in social services and higher ed, trash-talking the IL economy, a new low in political dysfunction, etc.) are going to have an effect.
Comment by X-prof Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:50 am
Statistics and damn lies redux. US employment rate is down 2.7% with population growth. IL is down 2.0% with no population growth. Which is better? Seems like you have incomplete information. Texas has added 3M people since 2007. IL has not
Comment by jeffinginchicago Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:51 am
Enough of this crap
The U.S. employment rate is 77.2% while Illinois’ is 78.5%
The labor participation rate is NOT the “true” employment rate.
My mom is retired, not unemployed. My friend just had a baby and is not working right now. She is not unemployed. My colleagues in grad school are not making money right now. They are not unemployed.
Illinois’ labor participation rate is a bit higher because no sane person would retire here.
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:54 am
I should have put quotes around “The U.S. employment rate is 77.2% while Illinois’ is 78.5%”
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:54 am
Something IS going to change here, man. I’m moving to Texas in a few months.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 11:08 am
Change? Nope, not in Illinois. We’re going to demonize the governor, keep our employment laws and economic development efforts exactly the same, except to occasionally make them worse and watch jobs not affiliated with corporate headquarters in Chicago move out of Illinois.
This is our moving van economic development program sponsored by Mike Madigan.
Comment by Ahoy! Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 11:10 am
==Change? Nope, not in Illinois==
Another victim heard from.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 11:18 am
BTW we seems to be tied with Indiana — the $uperStars (aka BigBrains) thus our quest to be West Indiana seem done
Comment by Annonn'' Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 11:22 am
Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 10:44 am:
“Please define “unloved,” “increasing and politicized levels of bureaucracy,” and “culture” in quantifiable terms if you’re going to discuss economics”
Okay, here goes.
1 - A new hire at a state agency put one business in a 60 month holding pattern over an incorrect interpretation of state regulations. Even the agency general counsel disagreed with the representative. But no matter - the new hire cost the firm $250,000 over that 2 month period. The company was eventually proven correct.
2. Small company sued a state agency over 4 misinterpretations of the state rules. Company won every case, but agency refused to provide licensing services for the firm during the two year court battle.
3. Department of labor has recently created a new interpretation of sub-contractors. Wants to impose employer/employee relationship on 2 week use of small sub contracting firms.
4. New hire at a state agency told a small bank (120 years old) that he could shut them down if he wanted to. Horrific tactics not justified by the institution or the issue.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 11:25 am
Downstate:
Those are anecdotes and anyone can find them to support their case. Those issues should be dealt with. But to condemn the entire regulatory environment on a set of anecdotes is just crazy. I frankly get tired of the whining by people with regard to regulations. Just follow them. I can’t tell you how many times a business complains to us because they didn’t get X, Y or Z and we politely inform them that if they followed A, B, and C’s simple requirements there would be no issues. Don’t whine to me. We need to fix the issues that you address (which do exist) and also be better about helping businesses with compliance with the laws and rules. We should be here to help them through the process. We shouldn’t eliminate regulations simply because a business doesn’t want to be bothered.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 11:35 am
“Change? Nope, not in Illinois. We’re going to demonize the governor, keep our employment laws and economic development efforts exactly the same, except to occasionally make them worse and watch jobs not affiliated with corporate headquarters in Chicago move out of Illinois.
This is our moving van economic development program sponsored by Mike Madigan. ”
Boom. Critical hit. Level up.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 11:38 am
LOL, Downstate, those are called “blind anecdotes,” not “definitions.”
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 11:38 am
Every business failure can be blamed on governments if blame is needed to be shared, just as every teacher can be blamed for a bad grade for a kid who doesn’t do his homework.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 11:39 am
Wage growth,wage growth,wage growth.
Comment by blue dog dem Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 11:45 am
=== … keep our employment laws and economic development efforts exactly the same … ===
Typical baloney from the Raunerbots. Nobody is advocating for “the same.” It’s just the simplistic mantra that Rauner and his sycophants use to demonize people who disagree with parts of the Governor’s agenda.
Efforts have been successful when negotiations are held, i.e. unemployment changes. The Raunerbots ignore the widely reported story that the Dems agreed to a public-privacy development initiative, but wanted a sunset after seeing problems arise in other states with similar efforts. Rather than ask the Dems to extend their 3-year sunset by a year or two, Rauner walked away in a huff. It’s his way or the highway folks. If you don’t like it, he’ll paint you as a “status quo” person.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 12:14 pm
@Downstate 11:25 ==new hire at a state agency==
A lot of older, highly experienced state employees are fleeing because of threats by Rauner. They retire earlier then would otherwise be expected. Hiring is slow because of the budget, and a lot of the most highly qualified people look at Rauner and Tier 2 and decide they don’t want a job with this state. So the state gets new employees that have to learn the job as they go along, as a trainee sent out on their own. Instead of learning what mistakes to avoid from experienced mentors, they learn from their own mistakes at YOUR expense.
Comment by DuPage Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 12:18 pm
The marijuana industry is poised to make gains this year, with legalization efforts in states on the voting ballots. By 2020 there is much greater growth expected, sales revenue wise.
Economic growth comes in large part from the creation and expansion of industries, like railroads, autos, planes, computers, etc. It’s great to see the marijuana industry growing before our eyes and being made legitimate and legal. Participants can do it legally and be businesspeople instead of criminals.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/us-legalized-pot-industry-poised-major-expansion-024745592.html
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 1:00 pm
Those stories are not all incidental, but rather suffered by whole industries across the state.
Surveys of small businesses show that government regulation is becoming one of the biggest challenges to business. And these are surveys being done of Illinois businesses.
I’m not trying to lambast one whole agency. I’m simply pointing out that the culture of the state is increasingly anti-business when it comes to small business owners.
Reading about a huge tax incentive being used to draw in a large company gives many the sense that the state is bending over for corporations. In fact, that is the opposite of what small businesses are feeling.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 1:07 pm
Another chart shows state spending as a percent of personal income is up .8% from 1993 to 2012.
http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/multimedia/data-visualizations/2014/fiscal-50#ind2
Comment by Liberty Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 1:21 pm
We desperately need inflation to hit middle income and lower level wages. Start with minimum wage.
Comment by Blue dog dem Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 2:13 pm
These charts show that IL is doing something right. Rauner never talks about what’s good in IL. Does anyone know why?
Comment by Mama Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 3:02 pm
-Every small business owner I speak with feels very UNLOVED in this state. -
Agreed but for different reasons. There is very little economic help that the state is providing. I’m not talking money here. I’m talking development advice and know how. Sure we can’t give out the tax incentives we used too and I think enterprise zones need to be more targeted but what about advice, know how, and a little bit of soft skill stuff. There used to be a DCEO team RED (Regional Economic Development) rep involved in every everything development. Like a great cabbie they knew how to get you there and they knew every one! What does DCEO do now? Nothing. Not a thing. They sit there and play with their EDC magic nonFOIA beans all day long. Not a bit of help to small business.
Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 3:12 pm
As a small business owner in illinois, here are some of the things I would like to see(and I don’t give a damn about love).
1. Keep the playing field fair for all business. No tax advantages for select corporations or industries.
2. Work comp causation must be addressed.
3. Stop penalizing the coal industry. Subsidize the hell out of clean energy, but don’t create unrealistic regulations that drive coal produced electricity rates through the roof. Most of us have no alternative when it comes to power suppliers.
4. Spread the sales tax and property tax burdens to the AG industry. Seriously, how many family farms are left.
I could go on, but these things stick in my craw.
Comment by Blue dog dem Tuesday, Mar 1, 16 @ 4:21 pm