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* Some interesting responses to the Republican exit polling in Illinois yesterday…
* Illegal immigrants working in the US should be: 56 percent chose “Offered legal status,” 40 percent chose “Deported to home country” (Trump won 56 percent of those who want them deported).
* Temporary ban on Muslims entering the US: 68 percent support it (Trump won 48 percent of those) and 28 percent oppose it (Kasich won 36 percent of those).
* 34 percent of all Republicans said they would not vote for Donald Trump if he wins the nomination (including 42 percent of Cruz voters and 38 percent of Kasich voters). 28 percent of Republicans said they would not vote for Ted Cruz if he’s nominated (including 51 percent of Trump voters and 34 percent of Kasich voters). And 25 percent of Republicans said they wouldn’t vote for John Kasich if he’s nominated (including 60 percent of Trump voters and 30 percent of Cruz voters).
* 43 percent of Republicans said they’d “consider a third party” if Trump is nominated.
* 51 percent of Republican voters said that Donald Trump is not honest or trustworthy (41 percent said the same of Cruz and 23 percent said that of Kasich).
* Of the 38 percent who believe the top candidate quality is “shares my values,” just 14 percent said that of Trump.
Discuss.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:52 am
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Sounds like Hillary can start measuring the drapes now…oops, I forgot she already has them.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:54 am
I’m looking forward to the Republican convention. I’m looking forward to all Illinois Republicans running with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket this year.
Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:55 am
==Temporary ban on Muslims entering the US: 68 percent support it…==
Just sad. Discrimination based on seriously irrational fear.
Comment by MSIX Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:58 am
The rise of the Roughneck Republicans
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:03 am
= Temporary ban on Muslims entering the US: 68 percent support it =
That explains Kirk’s main message during the primary.
Comment by Dirty Red Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:03 am
It’s been the same all over the country.
Trump is leading and is the likely GOP nominee, but he’s winning with pluralities among GOP voters, not majorities.
To date, a solid majority of GOP primary voters have gone for someone other than Trump.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:05 am
This is why establishment Republican and their “values” failed miserably. Perhaps these values are changing or just not that important anymore.
Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:05 am
Very surprised 25% said they wouldn’t vote for Kasich. Not radical enough for them?
Comment by burbanite Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:12 am
Donald Trump is the next chapter in the book “What’s the Matter with Kansas”.
Comment by Almost the Weekend Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:12 am
Most will vote for the nominee in November. The same goes for Bernie supporters voting for Hillary in November.
Illinois will not matter again so none of this will determine the next President.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:14 am
**Very surprised 25% said they wouldn’t vote for Kasich. Not radical enough for them?**
OBAMACARE! COMMON CORE!
Comment by AlabamaShake Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:20 am
Be interesting to see if the GOP and independent voters decide to vote for “Anybody But Clinton” or just sit out the general election.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:24 am
42% of Cruz voters say they won’t vote for Trump in the general.
But 51% of Trump voters say they won’t vote for Cruz in the general!
I don’t believe either group, but I’m surprised to see such high numbers of Trump voters saying they’d never vote for Cruz.
Comment by Robert the Bruce Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:25 am
I anticipate a brokered Republican Convention in Cleveland. It ought to be quite a show.
Comment by Stones Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:26 am
Those who would not vote for Kasich will probably not voteat all. Those opposed to Trump or Cruz may vote for Hillary. So the numbers may not mean the same thing.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:26 am
I don’t know if these results stack up to previous years, but it seems like the GOP is in a trick box. Trump supporters stay home if they find a way to ditch him by/at the convention, or lots of other Republicans stay home if Trump is the nominee. They are going to have to beat the living daylights of Clinton to have a chance - good thing for them, they’ve been practicing.
Comment by Century Club Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:27 am
@Almost the Weekend- Great reference to an enlightening book! I would go one further and say the Trump campaign is the follow-up to the same book, just crazier.
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:28 am
Dear Republicans,
If you’re part of
the Democrats have a political party that will welcome you with open arms, and disappoint you in new and exciting ways!
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:30 am
It’s really hard for coming to grips with having to vote for Hillary in November. It’s really depressing to be a Republican these days. Between this and watching Mark Kirk last night just makes me think Illinois is destined to be 100% democratic controlled
Comment by cgo75 Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:39 am
If Trump voters learned that he is both a closet Muslim (been watching too much ‘Homeland’) and an illegal immigrant they would still support him. As the saying goes, you can’t rationalize someone out of views they did not rationalize themselves into.
Hey Donald, how about those tax returns?
Comment by Vole Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:41 am
“X percent of all Republicans said they would not vote for Candidate Y”.
Actions speak louder than words. Tribalism is much stronger than issues. They will vote for the R in November.
Comment by Odysseus Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:51 am
Another possible wild card in November are the Sanders primary voters. Sanders did pretty well in most of downstate, not surprisingly in college towns, but also in more rural areas. This, to me, indicates a LOT of dissatisfaction with the Dem establishment as well as the GOP establishment.
In a Clinton vs. Trump race, I would NOT count on all or even most Sanders primary voters to vote for Clinton — a lot of them may just stay home; a smaller number may even defect to the Trump camp if they are disillusioned and angry enough.
Comment by Secret Square Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:52 am
@secret square
Yup
Comment by Forgottonian Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:56 am
Trump the accidental nominee.
Thats like arresting Blago and getting Quinn.
What can you say? How far can you stay away?
I dont see my values anywhere in “that”.
A large portion of voters get disenfranchised.
But a large portion were already, because they voted for Trump.
When the GOP went radical under Bush/Rove and systemically said if you aren’t extreme you are a RINO, all the moderates were disenfranchised.
Now, to win a general they need a moderate, but a moderate cant win their primary because they all went extremeist mode.
So they reap what they sowed, sitting in their own finger handcuffs on the sidelines, marginalized.
Their intolerance was their undoing. It just took this long to be obvious to some of them.
Comment by Team Warwick Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:57 am
Liberals keep trying to make this about something other than national security…
- MSIX - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:58 am:
==Temporary ban on Muslims entering the US: 68 percent support it…==
Just sad. Discrimination based on seriously irrational fear.
Comment by Liberty Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 11:20 am
The GOP will get behind their nominee in huge numbers; no matter who it is or how they get to the person.
Hillary will drive the GOP turnout.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 11:22 am
–Liberals keep trying to make this (banning Muslims) about something other than national security…–
Right. Liberals like Dick Cheney, Henry Kissinger, Brent Scowcroft, George Schultz, Gen. Petraeus, Gen. Vessey, Gen. Hayden, etc.
Better check under the bed. One of those scary Syrian orphans might be under there.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/12/07/cheney_trump_ban_on_muslims_goes_against_everything_we_stand_for_and_believe_in.html
http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/press-release/national-security-leaders-call-congress-reject-proposals-halt-resettlement-syrian-and
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 11:33 am
Many GOP vote only in the Election and forgo the Primaries… this year was different with Trump in the race… you either like him or hate him… however, whomever is the GOP Nominee will get probably 90% of Republican vote.
Comment by Allen D Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 11:43 am
If the Republicans sit out the general election, Clinton will win, The Congress doesn’t want any Democrat to win this election! I look for the Republicans to try and insert a third party candidate in the general election to take out Trump and Clinton.
Comment by Mama Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 11:44 am
The last Republican presidential candidate who carried Illinois in November was Bush 41 in 1988. Can Trump change that pattern in a blue state in a presidential election?
Comment by anon Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 12:17 pm
- RNUG - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:24 am:
Be interesting to see if the GOP and independent voters decide to vote for “Anybody But Clinton” or just sit out the general election.”
That’s the issue in one sentence.
A long time until the election. If Trump is the nominee I believe most will support him just like the Sander’s voters will support Clinton. Each side hates each other too much not to do so.
Comment by Federalist Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 12:50 pm
My guess is Clinton picks up at least 25% of all GOP voters if Trump or Cruz is the nominee. I can’t see myself supporting either of them. I’d almost support Bernie first!
Comment by cgo75 Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 12:51 pm
That “68% of GOP voters supporting a ban on Muslims entering the US” is just so sad and mind-blowing. Phantom Menace was a terrible Star Wars movie and an even worse policy position. Sadly, this was replicated in all GOP states yesterday +/_ 5 points.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 1:27 pm
Trump will drive the Democratic and Independent voter turnout in favor of Clinton.
Comment by Enviro Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 2:30 pm
It would take a lot of research to find the answer but the enormous turnout yesterday causes some wonder as to whether voters who pulled one party or the other’s ballot have ever done so in the past. I personally know at least two traditional democrats who took republican ballots so that they could vote to help or hurt candidates on the other side. I wonder also if traditional independents became new primary voters yesterday only to support Trump, or otherwise. These things no doubt happen in all elections, albeit not, in my opinion, to the extent seen yesterday. Thoughts?
Comment by Keyser Soze Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 2:36 pm
==Temporary ban on Muslims entering the US: 68 percent support it==
That’s just a sad statistic. How anyone can support a blanket ban on an entire group of people based on religion is just sickening to me.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 2:53 pm
Demoralized especially when you consider that far more US citizens have died to non muslim gun violence (13,000 in 2015) but those folks wont support a ban on guns, because we love freedom and dont want to impinge it…. so we ban muslims for safety and security…. but we oppose banning something that kills many many more poeople…..
Hypocrisy thy name is….
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 3:13 pm
In a Trump vs Clinton, all past turnout models will need to be discarded. This will not be the typical R vs D election, for a host of reasons. On the D side, much of the most ideologically motivated members of the base have been ignored and denied. On the R side, the party elites and a huge chunk of the social conservatives, in particular, have had their party wrested from them by what they perceive to be an interloper and, to some, a saboteur. Many of those who say they will never vote Trump will ultimately pull the lever for him. But many, I believe, are telling the truth. Some will vote for Clinton (as evidenced by the 20 percent of Republicans who voted for Kasich; they mustn’t be that bothered by a Trump vs Clinton matchup or they can’t do math to see that Kasich has no viable shot at the nomination.) But a large number will just stay home. It will be very interesting to see the map on Election Night, particularly if the conservatives now talking about a third party candidate follow through.
Comment by JB13 Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 3:15 pm
AlabamaShake
Yeah, I saw people on Facebook calling John Kasich a “Democrat”. That caused a major double take. That guy makes Bush look liberal.
Comment by jerry 101 Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 4:05 pm
Very accurate representation of Illinois’ GOP Voters.
Comment by JakeCP Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:20 pm
== I’d almost support Bernie first! ==
LOL!
Since it probably won’t be Kasich …
If it’s Hillary versus Donald, I’ll vote for Donald.
If it’s Bernie versus Donald, I’ll vote for Bernie.
Comment by RNUG Thursday, Mar 17, 16 @ 7:09 am