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* I have to go give a speech at noon, so blogging will be light for awhile. So, talk amongst yourselves. Be kind to each other and please keep it state-related. Thanks!

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 11:34 am

Comments

Honestly I’m skeptical that we will have a Grand Bargain. I think it’s going to fall apart when Rauner withdraws support because his blessed Turnaround Agenda is not in the bargain. Either that or it WILL be and Labor will have been sold down the river. I can see both situations happening.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 11:40 am
OK, everybody sing:

The General Election’s on the way

You better get ready for a brand new day.

Trump is gonna win today.

Go Trump Go.

Go Trump Go.

Hey Republicans, what do you say.

Trump is gonna win today.

He’s got the power, he’s got the wall

He’s in this for the long haul.

This is the year and he’s for real.

No convention necessary, he sealed the deal.

Go Trump Go.

Go Trump Go.

Hey Republicans, what do you say.

Trump is gonna win today.

Comment by Tom B. Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 11:40 am
You couldn’t give us an Oscar pic to keep ourselves company?

Comment by Just Me Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 11:40 am
It would be better if a “balanced budget” were defined as cash inflow minus outflows minus net increase in unfunded liabilities instead of just cash inflow minus outflows. Its the unfunded liabilities that were central to how the state could say it had a balanced budget while its effective debt kept increasing.

In addition, one time revenues, such as selling JRTC, can make sense, but its imprudent to use them on current year expenditures. They should be used toward old debts & not counted when factoring in whether the budget is balanced in the fiscal year the one time revenue occurs.

Comment by Nick Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 11:43 am
== Honestly I’m skeptical that we will have a Grand Bargain. ==

We will only get to a budget one of three ways.

1) a grand bargin that includes revenue and cuts

2) some GOP members deserting the Ship of Rauner

3) an election, either 2018 or 2020, changing the balance of power

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 11:47 am
==some GOP members deserting the Ship of Rauner==

I wouldn’t want to be on the Rauner ship if I had an election opponent in a college town this November without a budget. Call me wildly optimistic, but I’m hoping this is where the madness ends. Rauner may even get some of his agenda through, like workers comp reform, but he’ll consider it a sham because it won’t be exactly what he wanted.

Comment by AC Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 11:52 am
When was the last time both the Cubs and Sox had the best records in their respective leagues on May 3?

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 11:55 am
The new battleground in the statehouse races could very well be the college districts and how far HDems and SDems will be willing to try to make the General Election in these districts competitive.

The red herring is trying to count on student turnout.

Will these towns make the statehouse races a proxy vote on Rauner?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 11:56 am
Words: Hey, the Cards broke out the big bats last night so please stop trying to ruin my day with reality.

Comment by Give Me A Break Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 11:57 am
does anyone have a list of GA members participating in either or both of the state budget meetings? Rank and file or the meetings supported by the leadership?

Comment by Dozer Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 11:59 am
Are the ideas here correct or has the author missed something?
http://www.wirepoints.com/12-billion-sits-unused-with-illinois-treasurer-why-wp-original/

Comment by simple mind Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:00 pm
A progressive income tax that hits the 1%ers or a gasoline tax that hits the middle class.

My money is on the Governor’s support of a gas tax. 3 to 1 odds…

Comment by Mouthy Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:00 pm
Nick, the revenue projections can be tricky too depending on if you are listening to GOMB’s revenue estimate, COGFA, Comptroller, etc.

Comment by justacitizen Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:01 pm
==the revenue projections can be tricky too depending on if you are listening to GOMB’s revenue estimate, COGFA, Comptroller, etc.==

How about we start taking the lowest estimates for revenue and the highest estimates for expenses when crafting a budget?

Comment by AC Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:07 pm
Did anybody see the meme on the Scribble Live where the Civic Federation is calling out the Rauner on his $3.5 billion short FY17 budget?

“an insufficiently detailed plan for closing the gap.”

https://www.civicfed.org/iifs/publications/FY17_ILRecommendedBudget?platform=hootsuite

Nice pressure from them and I think Rauner is learning. Thank goodness.

He seems to be on a short leash with better filters lately. Now, if only his math skills kick in…..

Comment by cdog Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:10 pm
Word. I think it was back when dinosaurs roamed the Earth.

Comment by Chungas revenge Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:14 pm
Maybe 1906 had both Cubs and Sox teams doing well in May, and playing in October?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:17 pm
Opinions on the Bears draft? I’m perplexed with some of the picks, particularly interior linemen.

Comment by Stones Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:19 pm
I love baseball and don’t want to end the season now so we can have a Cubs vs Sox World Series. We need to let the season play out. And then have a Cubs vs Sox World Series.

Comment by Casual observer Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:25 pm
How many college district races are even contested?

Comment by CharlieKratos Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:27 pm
Bears are going to be the surprise winner of the NFC North. They effectively have 2 first round picks coming on board (which is a good thing because this year’s pick looks like a project) and had extra cap room to help shore up the defense.

Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:31 pm
There are a couple “college” districts with “races”, how competitive they turn out to be will be in question…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:38 pm
-The red herring is trying to count on student turnout.-

I know that in regards to the Kay v. Stuart race in the SIUE (Edwardsville), Stuart has already gotten a lot of traction with the misogynistic comments Kay made about how much “promiscuity” an insurance company should have to pay for in regards to birth control. Also I believe Stuart is going to be speaking at the rally in Springfield on the 18th. The 112th District is definitely in play. And yes getting the students to vote is an issue usually but I don’t think it will be in this Presidential year especially with senor Trump at the top of the ticket. I’m actually betting that it’s going to be a slaughter. We are already getting mailers down here.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:49 pm
“When was the last time both the Cubs and Sox had the best records in their respective leagues on May 3?”

Both teams won their division in ‘08(not league put close). Then both proceeded to lay an egg in the playoffs.

Comment by Person 8 Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:52 pm
RNUG, in option 1, cuts and revenue. Will that include the gutting of collective bargaining or prevailing wage?

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 12:52 pm
OW,

===The red herring is trying to count on student turnout===

I think it would be pretty foolish to count on it, but for 20k per campus you could put together a pretty comprehensive voter registration, absentee vote/early vote, voter turn out effort. It’s not terribly expensive to hire a half dozen progressive college students part time and it can be easily done by an outside organization.

A lot of the “downstate” races don’t tend to be as field oriented, but I think a very targeted field campaign would be pretty successful in this end — with the added addition of an opponent or outside groups reminding folks about that legislator’s failure to protect X number of jobs an Y amount of economic activity in the district.

Comment by Anon Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:03 pm
New thought RNUG, Option 1 with option 2 signed by the Governor with the understanding that they not get in the way of his Great Labor War in September. Thus HB580 is allowed to die. That way EVERYBODY blames AFSCME when they strike or NOBODY feels sympathetic when the union is broken by accepting a poisonous and fatal contract. Ahhhh there it is right there. That’s what’s going to happen. Thoughts RNUG, OW, Word?

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:05 pm
Here in Central Il at ISU and UofI I don’t think they have any opponents, so these legislators don’t seem stressed over the Universities going up in flames. I really wish they had opponents to actually get some meaningful discussion about budget going locally, instead of Gov’s talking points.

Comment by independent Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:10 pm
Anybody else in Illinois looking forward to the match this weekend which will determine of Middlesborough will be promoted to the Premier League?

Comment by Gooner Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:12 pm
==How many college district races are even contested?==

Here is an interesting article about incumbent Norrine Hammond’s race in the district where WIU resides.

http://www.illinoisobserver.net/2016/05/03/poll-rep-hammond-leads-democratic-foe-risks-loom/

Comment by Joe M Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:13 pm
@Casual Obs.

Make that a Cubs vs Red Sox World Series and I’m in. Love to see a Wrigley/Fenway series. Imagine those ticket prices.

Comment by MSIX Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:30 pm
CharlieKratos:

Norine Hammond (R) of the Macomb/WIU 93rd District will face John Curtis (D) in November.

Reggie Phillips (R) of the Charleston/EIU 110th District will face Dennis Malak (D) in November.

I’m not sure about the SIU areas.

Comment by baihua Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:31 pm
== Make that a Cubs vs Red Sox World Series and I’m in. ==

That would put me in a tough spot. I’m Cubs and she’s Red Sox (she used to live in Boston area).

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:33 pm
@-Oswego Willy-11:56 ==The red herring is trying to count on student turnout.==

My kids were told they could not register or vote at school, they had to vote absentee up here. That was a long time ago. Maybe the rules have changed.

Comment by DuPage Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:41 pm
I’m with Honeybear on the issue with Rauner singing off on any Budget/Grand Bargain.
RNUG does a terrific job of laying out the reasoning.

Comment by Belle Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:43 pm
The “races” exist, but resources will be spread thin and polling IN the town precincts and in the districts (less the students) will be telling.

Social Services and Labor will need to make the push, locally, to put any seat in play.

Can they?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:44 pm
Whats with Illinois liquor laws? August Schell and New Glarus brewing refuse to sell here.

Comment by Foster brooks Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:48 pm
In and around SIU-Carbondale, the house seat currently held by (R) Terri Bryant who HAD the local IEA endorsement is running against Marsha Griffin, a teacher. The 115th was once held by Mike Bost.

Comment by Exit 59 Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:50 pm
If this can happen, so will the Cubs in ‘16!

http://www.ibtimes.com/leicester-city-fc-win-englands-historic-soccer-underdog-means-big-loss-uk-bookmakers-2363396

Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:54 pm
I’m curious to know how many of the regular commenters here are state or local gov employees?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:57 pm
===I think it would be pretty foolish to count on it, but…===

That’s why I never count on student turnout to dictate margins.

Even the best organized student voting apparatus with wide margins, including registration fluctuations does not make a winning formula, it makes a “wishing” formula.

===A lot of the “downstate” races don’t tend to be as field oriented, but I think a very targeted field campaign would be pretty successful in this end — with the added addition of an opponent or outside groups reminding folks about that legislator’s failure to protect X number of jobs an Y amount of economic activity in the district.===

This will be the Ball Game, but central to…

The college town, those living in the district that rely on the schools, and alums living around campus.

The student strategy is a red herring, quick sand, struggling to keep up margins only speculated.

Your comment is thoughtful and complete.

===And yes getting the students to vote is an issue usually but I don’t think it will be in this Presidential year especially with senor Trump at the top of the ticket.===

Good Field Crews, they know its running up margins and reducing margin losses win seats. The students, the only way a good Field Crew can understand where they are with students is the Early Voting ballots cast. The rest is usually a “guess”, at best.

That’s as honest as it is.

===I’m actually betting that it’s going to be a slaughter. We are already getting mailers down here.===

I’m betting it going to be real close. Real. Close. I’m also betting a ground game in the towns, not the students WILL be the difference.

With a great deal of respect.

- DuPage -,

Check with the campus party affiliates. Then, check with the state board of elections.

I’m not going to give any registration speculation, lol.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 1:59 pm
I’d be curious why you choose to be - Anonymous -.

I guess we will have to live with not knowing…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:00 pm
“Whats with Illinois liquor laws? August Schell and New Glarus brewing refuse to sell here.”

New Glarus fan here. Previously they have said they only sell in Wisconsin by their own choice.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:01 pm
===That way EVERYBODY blames AFSCME when they strike or NOBODY feels sympathetic when the union is broken by accepting a poisonous and fatal contract. Ahhhh there it is right there. That’s what’s going to happen.===

Yep.

Sorry.

How AFSCME decides to frame a…

Work. Stoppage.

… I could only speculate.

The question left is, who will decide how AFSCME is seen, Rauner visuals or AFSCME framings of message.

Same as it was in November, 2014. Once Rauner became Governor-Elect, the outcome playing out was… a self-fulling prophesy… by Rauner.

I’m sorry.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:05 pm
RNUG et al.: On what legal and/or political bases is this latest Tribune-proposed pension evisceration unlikely? http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-illinois-pensions-bankruptcy-congress-retirement-perspec-0429-jm-20160427-story.html

Comment by Math(Usually)Doesn'tLie Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:22 pm
@ Gooner, this person in Illinois agrees……totally! although I’m exhausted after watching the Spurs implode, and explode, yesterday! (red card should go to Pocchetino, Lamela,Rose…..) Never cheered for Chelsea in my life until yesterday. no St. Totteringham’s day this year probably, but fun to watch Spurs NOT get first place. Arsenal forever!

and the teams that are in the running to be promoted have some wonderful English names. Burnley in for sure, Middlesbrough, Brighton Hove Albion, and then we are on to the playoff rounds which includes Hull, if I recall correctly, two others. meanwhile, I think it is Bolton which is getting relegated down another league and Fulham just avoided that. I knew I was hooked on “the football” when I watched the Crystal Palace -Watford play in match years ago, featuring shots of their biggest fans, Eddie Izard for Palace, and former owner Elton John of Watford.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:23 pm
-Honeybear-,

I don’t have a clue what is really going to happen. Too little history on Rauner to accurately predict his point of starting to move to a compromise; suspect the only thing that moves him is public pressure when it is directed at him personally.

To the unions, AFSCME in particular. Most of this is second-hand, some first-hand knowledge. I’m hearing the union thinks it will be a short strike that will be ended when welfare checks don’t go out; the union is badly misreading things and deluding themselves. I say this for multiple reasons: there will be union employees not allowed to strike or quickly ordered back (public safety and / or court orders), there will still be non-union employees on the job, there will be some scabs / retirees hired back, etc., possibly even a bunch of emergency outsourcing (although I’m not sure where the authority / appropriations for that legally comes from, possibly under a declared State lEmergency).

A lot of the programs the union thinks will bring pressure can run pretty much on auto-pilot, plus they all had disaster recovery plans in place at one time for various contingencies. Existing receipiants will continue to get benefits; it will just be new application ts who will be delayed … and my take on it is Rauner DOESN’T CARE about those programs.

The one fly in the ointment is the State has let their disaster recovery plans fall into disarray. At one time it was world class; today it is partially in shambles but the fail-safes would still more or less work … so no real pressure point.

Sorry to have such a downer message today, but that’s the way I see it: doom and gloom for about 3 more years.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:24 pm
@Anon221 except that unlike the Cubs Leicester has a super low payroll, the team was just promoted to the big league last season, and features a star who several years ago was playing football in the super low leagues with what we USians would call an ankle bracelet, as in he was on day release. He would leave games early to make it home. Jamie “it’s all f…… mine” Vardy. football is not a cuddly sport. The victory of Leicester makes any World Series win of the Cubs look like a yawn.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:29 pm
- RNUG -

Well said. Perfect, actually.

I’d throw in the possibility of the state, by court order, changing the way or the amounts, or the means, to pay state employees, due to the budget crisis and how that might factor I to the want or desire for a budget, labor peace, or both.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:31 pm
Gooner/Amalia-
How about Leicester City? I wish I would have put $10 down at Paddy Power at the beginning of the season. I would have about $50K right now.
What a story.

I think Middlesboro will dispatch with Brighton and that Derby County will win the playoff and will be the third team. I think Norwich and Sunderland will be relegated along with Aston Villa.

I wish that MLB had promotion and relegation.

Comment by Jake From Elwood Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:39 pm
- Math(Usually)Doesn’tLie -

Off the top of my head, I’m questioning the claimed federal supremacy. In a republic, States do have some rights the Feds can’t overrule. One of those areas the employment relationship between a state itself and it’s direct employees. That ploy might work for TRS but I’m questioning it for SERS, JRS and GARS. SURS, I think, would depend.

Going to have to look at that closer and mull it over.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:39 pm
-OW-,

Thanks. Glad you and Rich don’t take off for typos.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:48 pm
@Jakefrom Elwood, Leicester is the coolest sports story EVER! bigger than the 1980 Oly USA hockey team. it is just so improbable. but it is testimony to a good manager, and that may indeed be the reason Newcastle stays up with Benitez at the helm of late. I will miss “The Stadium of Light” if Sunderland gets relegated. Derby County, yet another cool English name, so that would mean everyone in the USA would have to find another way to pronounce derby on a regular basis. who has a derby with Derby?

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 2:59 pm
- RNUG -

I’m arguably the worst at spelling errors or cut and paste miscues. You have no fear of me calling you out, bud. - OW

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 3, 16 @ 3:22 pm