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Poll: 54 percent disapprove of Rauner in 99th House District

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* AFSCME commissioned a Public Policy Polling poll in appointed GOP Rep. Sara Wojcicki Jimenez’s Springfield-area district…

The poll found that 37 percent approved of the job Rauner is doing, while 54 percent disapproved and 9 percent were not sure. Rauner’s approval slipped since a similar survey in August 2015, the firm said, when approval was 45 percent and disapproval was 47 percent.

The new poll also found that job approval for Jimenez was 35 percent, with 30 percent disapproving and 35 percent unsure.

This was an automated poll of 552 voters April 14-17 with an MOE of +/-4.2 percent.

* One question asked about AFSCME’s bill that would “avoid a strike or lockout of state workers.” It was backed 60-22…

Another poll question states that Rauner says the bill “takes power from the governor and gives it to unelected arbitrators who are biased toward unions and would make state government too costly. State workers say lawmakers should override the governor’s (expected) veto because the arbitrator is chosen by both sides to be independent and fair, and that the process would help make certain that important public services are not disrupted by a strike or lockout.” Asked which side they agreed with, 58 percent said the state workers, and 32 percent said the governor.

* However…

Yet another question asks if people would be more likely to vote for Jimenez or the Democratic challenger if she “sides with Governor Rauner’s (expected) veto of the arbitration bill, forcing state employees to accept the governor’s terms or go on strike and shut down state government. …” In response, 32 percent said they would be more likely to vote for Jimenez, while 47 percent said the push would be toward the Democrat. Another 17 percent said the issue would have no impact, and 4 percent didn’t know.

47 percent means the issue probably isn’t “moving” voters enough to change the election’s outcome.

But, man, the governor sure is one unpopular dude in that GOP district.

…Adding… The full polling memo is here. Respondents said they voted for Romney over Obama 48-38.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:24 am

Comments

“Vote Accordingly” come November…?

Food for thought.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:34 am
So the Governor’s numbers are upside down in the South (Phelps), West (Hammond) and Central. And he hasn’t even signed off on the expected tax increase yet.

Comment by Juice Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:34 am
I know that it’s tempting to think the Dems could take this district because it has the western half of Springfield and is basically the western half of Sangamon County and has a lot of state workers, and because the Governor is locally unpopular but it’s a very Republican district. Rauner won it by 21 points, and I know the luster has come off the Governor in this area but Durbin lost it by 13 points, Madigan barely won it, Simon lost it by 39 points and Frerichs lost it by 28 points. The Dems will do far better here in 2016 than they did in 2014 and a number of these votes will be far more complicated for Wojcicki-Jimenez than they would for other Republicans in more traditionally Republican districts but for the Dems to actually take this district they have a huge, huge hill to climb.

Comment by The Captain Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:36 am
2016 could be a bang up year for local TV owners.

Comment by Beaner Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:36 am
You mean a district full of state workers that is treated like they are costs to be cut instead of valuable partners to help run the state disapprove of their boss? Gee, how can that be??????

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:37 am
===Rauner won it by 21 points,…===

That was yesterday…. Yesterday.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:38 am
Interesting but I no longer have any faith in polling or statistics from EITHER side. To reiterate my thought from another post. “Merit is (almost) meaningless.” “Moving” voters which OW rightly points out is the exercise and manipulation of power. For instance the connection of Jimenez/Rauner/Trump is purely meritless and yet I guarantee that’s what is going to be pasted everywhere.

Comment by Honeybear Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:38 am
Ahhhhhh, light bulb….OW’s 60/30. Merit of a bill is (almost) meaningless. Do you have 60/30 or whatever the override number is. Wow. I had it before but now I’m processing.

Comment by Honeybear Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:41 am
–But, man, the governor sure is one unpopular dude in that GOP district.–

Yes, but I’m not sure it matters. All recent Governor’s have been unpopular in this district. For one, there is just a large concentration of state workers who feel entitled. The real sentiment will be known in November.

Comment by Ahoy! Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:49 am
Curious about Hammonds and the other University. His victory margin today sure is winning …..

Comment by illinois manufacturer Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:53 am
Jimenez is going to win. Any doubt would be quickly wiped out by a giant infusion of Rauner money. I only hope that my vote against her and those of a large number of other former GOP voters makes her sweat a little bit.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:55 am
It won’t be easy but it is possible to flip the area. Lots of fed up State workers and retirees that normally vote R. Going to depend on the voters clearly understanding who is with Rauner and who is not.

I could be wrong, but I see Wojcicki-Jimenez in trouble. Yes, she has the name recognition but she has already gone out in support of Rauner and against the union arbitration bill. I think enough grass roots work by the unions could defeat her, especially if some of that grass roots are disillusioned R’s working to defeat her.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:57 am
===Jimenez is going to win.===

Yep. 100% yes…

===I only hope that my vote against her and those of a large number of other former GOP voters makes her sweat a little bit.===

Also, Yep, 100% yes.

“Vote Accordingly” - be heard, make some… sweat.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 10:57 am
It’s going to be interesting this fall to see how many yards in Springfield will have a mix of R & D signs posted. I know mine will be one; hope my R precinct committeeman doesn’t have a stroke.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 11:03 am
===Lots of fed up State workers and retirees that normally vote R. Going to depend on the voters clearly understanding who is with Rauner and who is not.===

This.

If McCann-Benton taught anyone anything, it’s that “voting accordingly”, even with … McCann!… it’s the Rauner issue, the referendum… that makes the difference.

Until I can see otherwise, months down the road, I can’t see this seat flipping.

Will March be respeated in November?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 11:14 am
The reason the Governor is unpopular is because those entitled central Illinois state employees are smart enough to know government has to work for everyone. They are also realize there is a productive and a destructive path to get the results needed. I think the election will be close because all those who backed McCann in the Senate will now support Wojcicki-Jimenez’s opponent

Comment by NobodysAccountable Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 11:20 am
As others have said, Sangamon Co and the surrounding areas are GOP strongholds with a number of State workers. I also agree they will help elect Rauners hand picked Candidates. If they do, come December they need to quit complaining about what the Gov is trying to do to them.

Comment by Bemused Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 11:20 am
I still believe that the overriding narrative on the McCann 2016 primary victory is correct: that McCann voted with his district (even when it meant voting against his Governor’s wishes) and his district rewarded him for it. However I’m reluctant to extrapolate that lesson too far because some of the underlying numbers in his primary race are counterintuitive.

For example, I would have expected his strongest support to come from areas with the greatest concentration of state workers and without knowing exactly which counties have the greatest number of state workers I would have guessed Sangamon would have had the greatest number of state workers in his district. Yet in his 2016 primary McCann actually narrowly lost Sangamon County to Benton, he just won by greater margins in the western counties and that carried the day. I don’t have a good theory for why that is, I can’t reconcile that and so I’m reluctant to conclude that the state workers in Sangamon County that supported McCann can put Wojcicki-Jimenz’ opponent (Anthony DelGiorno) over the top. Remember, the 99th lies entirely in Sangamon County and Benton beat McCann in that part.

Comment by The Captain Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 11:37 am
Republicans voting for labor, Rs voting for Hillary consevatives not voting Republican. What a upside down election year.I do not understand how Sara quietly watches her constituents under attack in her home town (closing the museum) and still stands with Bruce. Who is her opponent? She should have a visit with Sam imho.

Comment by Revese psychology Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 11:49 am
When Rauner institutes his insurance changes, Sangamon Co. Republicans won’t admit it, but will vote their pocketbook in the booth.

Comment by Liberty Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 12:01 pm
Only 54% disapprove of Rauner? I think there might be a lot more public employees (especially non-union) that would not want to say. The phone rings, an automated robot-poll, how would they know who it is? It could be Rauner’s poll, and the employee could be identified by their phone#.

Comment by DuPage Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 12:05 pm
== I think there might be a lot more public employees (especially non-union) that would not want to say. ==

I haven’t answered a single poll in over the past year. I haven’t even answered calls from candidates I support. They can leave a message and I’ll call them back or send a check if I want to. Most of the time the number gets added to my call block list. And I’m retired, just tired of all the calls and mailings.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 12:29 pm
The people in the district don’t want to see thousands of middle class state workers have to swallow drastic cuts while Rauner and other super-rich are fighting so hard to not pay higher income taxes for top earners.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 12:36 pm
The Pew Research group today released a study of auto polling. It can be found at:

http://www.pewresearch.org/2016/05/02/evaluating-online-nonprobability-surveys/?utm_source=Pew+Research+Center&utm_campaign=7f6b43277c-Weekly_May_5_20165_5_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3e953b9b70-7f6b43277c-399538005

It is a difficult read but it goes to the accuracy of computer surveys such as the one described here.

Comment by Keyser Soze Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 12:44 pm
@Keyser Soze, the Pew report is about online surveys NOT phone polls like the PPP poll in Jimenez district.

Comment by Reality Check Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 1:39 pm
Reality; The kind of (automated)phone survey done by PPP, e.g, if you are a woman press 1, if a man, press 2, is little different than the non-verbal (automated)polling of select individuals done on-line.

Comment by Keyser Soze Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 3:28 pm
It appears the voters have finally woke up!

Comment by Mama Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 3:39 pm
I would link Jimenez to Rauner but not Trump. There are more Trump fans than you realize.

Comment by Mama Thursday, May 5, 16 @ 3:44 pm