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Get out of the way

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Polls

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

With yet another poll showing plunging downstate support for Gov. Bruce Rauner in a Republican district and the intense Republican freakout over Donald Trump’s impending presidential nomination and its impact on independent suburban women, there appears to be a growing feeling among Democrats, particularly in the Illinois Senate, that they need to get out of the way to let the other party crash and burn.

The almost year-long state government impasse is most definitely having an impact on Gov. Rauner’s poll numbers. Bernie Schoenburg reported in the State Journal-Register last week that a Public Policy Polling poll of appointed Republican state Rep. Sara Wojcicki Jimenez’s Springfield-area district had Rauner upside down, with 37 percent approving of the way the governor is doing his job, while a majority of 54 percent disapproved. Rauner won that district 58-37 in 2014, according to Illinois Election Data’s numbers. So, basically Gov. Rauner’s numbers have flipped almost entirely the other way.

Another PPP poll of GOP state Rep. Terri Bryant’s southern Illinois district near Carbondale was even worse for the governor. Rauner won Rep. Bryant’s district 60-33, but 57 percent of voters in that district disapprove of Rauner’s job performance, while only 33 percent approve. That’s just about a mirror opposite image of his 2014 result. Both polls were taken April 14-17 and had margins of error of a bit over 4 percent.

A PPP poll taken last August in Bryant’s district had the governor’s job approval rating at 40 percent and his disapproval rating was 51. So, that’s a net loss of 13 points in eight months. And, again, this is a Republican district, albeit one that has plenty of government workers.

Rep. Bryant is also experiencing a freefall if the pollster’s numbers are correct. Last August, PPP had her at a 50 percent job approval rating and a 27 percent disapproval rating. Now, she’s at 42 percent approval and 43 percent disapproval. That’s a huge 24-point swing.

Meanwhile, Gallup’s daily March tracking polls showed 70 percent of women nationally had an unfavorable view of the presumptive nominee Trump. That number is surely higher in the more Democratic-leaning Illinois, where independent suburban women have been the deciding factor in just about every major statewide race since 1990.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out why Rauner recently let it be known that he won’t endorse Trump and won’t attend the Republican convention in Cleveland this summer, and why, as I write this, appointed Comptroller Leslie Munger is expected to make the same decisions because she’s up for special election this fall.

And you also don’t have to be Einstein to realize that the one-two combo of Rauner and Trump could spell big trouble for down-ballot Republicans.

On the other hand, Rauner’s team says it has polling which shows, by a 2-1 margin, that voters blame House Speaker Michael Madigan more than the governor for the ongoing impasse. To voters, Madigan is “the all-knowing puppet-master,” explained one Rauner official last week. Madigan’s been around so long and is believed to have so much control over Illinois politics and government that he’s seen by voters as “the key to getting something done.”

So, as long as this impasse is going on, Rauner’s legislative allies have a handy pivot they can use, paid for with oil tanker loads of the wealthy Rauner’s cash. Whenever Democratic legislators or candidates demand their Republican opponents answer for the latest Trump outrage or their support for and/or from the unpopular Rauner, the Republicans can turn it back on the Democrats by demanding they justify their support for and/or from the obstructive Speaker Madigan (or Democratic Party of Illinois Chairman Madigan, in the case of Senate candidates).

But even if yet another “Fire Madigan” effort by Republicans isn’t as effective as they believe it will be (the first two tries failed badly), many Democrats will freely admit right now that voters are overwhelmingly blaming incumbents rather than a single political party or person for the impasse—and there are a whole lot more Democratic incumbents than Republicans in the General Assembly.

In a campaign, once your opponent goes down you never take your boot off that person’s neck. So, with Rauner and Republican legislators going down and Trump about to make a big splash, there’s naturally plenty of temptation among a certain type of Democrat (***cough*** intheHouse! ***cough***) to keep this impasse going.

But all those legislative Democrats may wind up doing if the impasse lasts through November is unhelpfully distract Illinois voters from the weirdness at the national and statewide levels.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, May 9, 16 @ 8:21 am

Comments

I think Rauners people are underestimating the blame here. No doubt plenty of Madigan detractors, but I hear more people blaming Rauner than anyone else. Especially when it comes to social service groups. I would say at least 2 to 1 if not 3 to 1 if I were to guess.

Comment by sparky791 Monday, May 9, 16 @ 8:35 am
Emily Miller, and people in the hostage trenches are slowly getting the word out.

Comment by PublicServant Monday, May 9, 16 @ 8:40 am
To the Post,

Great work, Rich. The game of guessing where the “anger” will be felt is probably more a accurate than blaming Rauner OR Madigan.

I especially liked this…

===Democrats will freely admit right now that voters are overwhelmingly blaming incumbents rather than a single political party or person for the impasse—and there are a whole lot more Democratic incumbents than Republicans in the General Assembly.===

I would completely agree. The issue for Raunerites downstate is… if you represent Charleston, Macomb, Urbana-Champaign… Edwardsville… and as an incumbent, you are willfully encouraging the destruction of Western, Eastern, Southern… how do you explain this willfulness against your economic engine?

Bryant and Reggie… if there’s a choice, voters may “vote accordingly”

I never would’ve guessed Sheila Simon might be in play… She will benefit from Rauner downstate?

It’s the incumbents, Raunerite incumbents framed with the Ron Sandack tweet… Yikes.

Governors own and “Madigan 2.0″ fizzled. Will downstate incumbents be willing to own the bad their “side” deserves, or will the framing by *Cough* HDems *Cough* turn out to be “When Carbondale needed help… ”

Incumbents. Governors own. “Who” will last?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 9, 16 @ 8:47 am
Madigan may share the blame, but Rauner’s the most exposed. He’s also the self-proclaimed head of the Illinois Republican party.

So if the buck stops … at the top? Then Rauner’s at the top, no two ways about it.

You say: define “savvy”?

Michael Madigan.

Comment by Formerly Known as Frenchie M Monday, May 9, 16 @ 8:50 am
Need to also keep in mind that the impasse has also been kept going in the House by the failure of veto overrides. Some of that responsibility sits not only with Dunkin, Franks, and Drury, but also with Republicans who can’t or won’t go off the yellow and red cash buttons. There have been signs of change, but the damages have already been done, and, unfortunately, people like Trump will reap the “profits” of those damages.

Comment by Anon221 Monday, May 9, 16 @ 8:54 am
The difference in Carbondale is that in two years Rauner will be on the ballot but Madigan will not.

Comment by Tommydanger Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:04 am
Hard telling, Madigan being disliked by voters is nothing new; Rauner being disliked by voters is new. So far, being a Republican means voting how Rauner tells you to. If Madigan cold have pulled off the same with Democrats the impasse would have been resolved a very long time ago. I would vote in any way I could to curb Rauner’s power, but how big a difference will that make against unlimited spending for Rauner candidates in the fall?

Comment by Earnest Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:07 am
I made a rule for myself years ago never to initiate any political discussions at family gatherings, yet will never shy from comments when others have opinions that I need to counter.

Yesterday I was talking to my brothers father-in-law who retired at 55 with a full teachers pension that he has been collecting for 26 years. The subject of the state budget and its impact came up. He started the “Blame Madigan” mantra and was in denial that BVR had any responsibility.

His attitude probably reflects the majority of the voters in my heavily Republican county. Yet there are others who are far more circumspect and are no longer giving the Governor a pass on the devastation and pain he could have prevented,

The Bryant race is certainly one to watch.

Comment by illini Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:12 am
The dynamics of this election are fascinating. It’s like watching a tornado from 100 yards away, not knowing what direction it will turn, what damage it will cause, or if it will fizzle out altogether.

Comment by AC Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:17 am
I think a lot depends upon what/whom you are near. Those near or affected by social service closures, university troubles, or high percentage of state workers will see a lot of incumbent problems. Highlighting these are the work of 1805 in the Kay/Stuart race. Kay hits all three of these squarely. Every race is a push. I’m not saying it’s going to be easy. But we have these three winds at our backs. Mix that with our labor ground game, the Trump/Rauner factor and we’ve got the best chances we’re going to have. The primaries showed that highly organized and coordinated ground game can defeat money.

Comment by Honeybear Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:17 am
I live in a town which houses a public university. There are still many folks, including those with connections to the university and those with businesses which suffer due to disinvestment in higher education, who still support Rauner. It is exasperating.

Comment by illinoised Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:25 am
===I think a lot depends upon what/whom you are near. Those near or affected by social service closures, university troubles, or high percentage of state workers will see a lot of incumbent problems. … Every race is a push. I’m not saying it’s going to be easy. But we have these three winds at our backs. Mix that with our labor ground game, the Trump/Rauner factor and we’ve got the best chances we’re going to have. The primaries showed that highly organized and coordinated ground game can defeat money.===

If you stay RIGHT HERE… right here… and focus on 3-5 races that Labor can have significant impact…

This comment IS where you should be. Stay in this groove, yikes, that’s about a good as it can get, and really shows where Rich’s column touches on a reality some covering this impasse might be missing.

- Hobeybear -, this IS the Labor groove. Stay here.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:26 am
- Rauner’s team says it has polling which shows, by a 2-1 margin, that voters blame House Speaker Michael Madigan -

Keep going with the same tactic, GOPies. By the time MJM retires it might just work.

Comment by Daniel Plainview Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:26 am
Trump is toxic to Kirk and probably Munger, I’m not sure Trump actually hurts Republican’s in legislative districts that much. Remember, these districts are not competitive, they are rigged maps. And frankly, were Trump hurts the Republican’s in the collars, he might actually help them downstate in Democratic districts.

Also, as noted, Republican’s will have plenty of money to try to blame the Democrats for this mess, and the Democrats might overplay their hand and make it to obvious that they actually want it (Madigan).

Comment by Ahoy! Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:27 am
- illinoised -

Think about the 2 in 5 Labor Households that supported Rauner over Quinn in 2014 when Quinn, as “awful” at times he treated Labor (according to them, at times) was still the better choice over Rauner.

Head scratcher abound…

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:29 am
Who knew that eviscerating higher ed and destroying the social services infrastructure for some apparently unexplainable agenda would prove to be unpopular?

In the last week, we saw the Rauner Administration act with lightning speed to produce allegedly hard-headed, detailed financial analysis on both a graduated income tax and a school-funding formula revision.

Yet here in May 2016, still nothing but crickets and catch-phrases on the economic impact of the so-called Turnaround Agenda for which all this destruction is supposedly necessary.

If there was an economic justification for it, we would have seen it long ago. This destruction is for a strictly partisan political agenda.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:34 am
Here’s part of the problem. There are too many low information voters who aren’t paying attention. They jump on the Blame Madigan movement because they have always been Republican or Conservative without educating themselves on the facts. The further you get from people who pay attention, the more you see people like this. There are several on my Facebook page who believe what they hear and actually end up voting against their self interest without even realizing it.

Comment by Thoughts Matter Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:39 am
Closing any university would be devastating for the economy of that town. Its certainly not any form of job creation. And I think most folks want an educated citizenry, and doesnt business support the same?

The destruction of social services will send some of these vulnerable citizens into the Criminal Justice system at a greater cost. So in all likelihood taxes will have to be raised, and more prisons built.

Yet there is no scuttlebutt to legalize marijuana and empty out the prisons of non-violent offenders which are the biggest cost to not only the prisons, but society overall. Why not?

Comment by Petr Kovanich Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:45 am
I’ve been involved in a number of the “who’s to blame conversations.” I listen, let people vent and then bring up the simple fact that it was Governor Rauner that vetoed the budget. He could have reduced it by an amendatory veto, but he chose to reduce it to zero. There is silence at that point. As OW has said many times, Rauner owns this. .

Comment by Tough Guy Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:21 am
== Anon221 - Monday, May 9, 16 @ 8:54 am: ==

I agree the republicans lack of votes has caused a lot of the problems we face today. I understand they are only following Rauner’s orders when they vote present.

Comment by Mama Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:23 am
- Tough Guy -

I’d point out to those you are conversing with, if they don’t understand “Governors Own”, the Edgar Ramp, the Quinn Tax, Ryan’s Illinois First… it’s not anti-Rauner, it’s just governors own since forever. Rauner’s choices are Rauner’s.

You also may want to direct them to Dave McKinney’s, arguably the best one-stop explanation of the Pension Crisis, Crain’s article, and even here the work Rich has done.

The past, lots of blame, to Democrats and Republicans alike, and McKinney gave NO shelter to Madigan… however… you were correct…

… Rauner owns his messes. Ron Sandack made that perfectly clear.

Much respect, - Tough Guy -.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:33 am
Is Rauner going to Poland or Poll-land?

Comment by My New Handle Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:34 am
So a good number of people, many of them suburban women and campus town residents have realized that Pat Quinn correctly identified Bruce Rauner as Monty Burns in the flesh. On be behalf of the 1,000s of university employees and social service agency workers that have lost the jobs, “way to go you politically gullible nits”. For the love of God, the next time a right-wing billionaire comes around with his “Democrat wife” vouching for him please use your brains. Some of us can’t take these wars over +/-2% income tax. If you wait, soon it will be an increase twice that (perhaps it already is). Sorry, I’ve wanted to say that a long time. If you think your property taxes are too high, lower them. Don’t use it as an excuse to strangle state government.

Comment by James Knell Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:59 am
D Plainview - @ 9:26 am:
== Keep going with the same tactic, GOPies. By the time MJM retires it might just work. ==

Madigan is 74 yrs old.

Comment by Anon III Monday, May 9, 16 @ 11:38 am
===Madigan is 74 yrs old.===

… and shows no signs of slowing or contemplating retirement, and reminded Ron Sandack he (MJM) faced the voters and won in March.

Waiting out Mike Madigan is a losing effort.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 9, 16 @ 11:44 am
Is there a logical fallacy that Rauner’s anti-Madigan strategy doesn’t break? Who does Rauner hate worse, unions or Madigan?

Comment by Liberty Monday, May 9, 16 @ 12:38 pm
I believe the poll. I was in the 58% that voted for him and I’m in the 54% that disapproves now. While I’m truly upset with the way things have turned out with this guy I just have to remind myself who his Democratic opponent was and that eases my conscience somewhat.

Going forward…I do understand how politics works but if the Illinois Democratic Party can just find its way clear to nominate some intelligent halfway-competent candidates (especially for Governor) I’d be very happy to vote for them.

Comment by BluegrassBoy Monday, May 9, 16 @ 12:39 pm
==- wordslinger - Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:34 am: ==
”
If there was an economic justification for it, we would have seen it long ago. This destruction is for a strictly partisan political agenda.”

Word, you nailed it.

Comment by Mama Monday, May 9, 16 @ 2:09 pm
Petr- “Yet there is no scuttlebutt to legalize marijuana and empty out the prisons of non-violent offenders which are the biggest cost to not only the prisons, but society overall. Why not?” Good question!

Answer: the tag team of police unions that create job security by lobbying for more criminal statutes on the books, and voters in mostly white small towns and rural areas that want more prison jobs in a post-industrial economy.

My mother told me that she found the current push by small town areas to host prisons astonishing, and that any politician, state or local, back in her parents time circa the first quarter of the 20th century who proposed locating a prison in their county would have been tarred and feathered.

Comment by Payback Monday, May 9, 16 @ 8:36 pm
Madigan is not the despotic control freak his critics portray. He is a responsible and astute politician. He gets the respect of House members on his merits.
That said, the Democratic Party of Illinois has drifted to allow itself to become “owned and operated” by greedy, selfish, and detrimenal unions. This is where most of Madigan’s and other Democrats campaign funds come from—out of the pockets and hard work of union members who are abused by their union bosses.
It will take an election upheaval to teach Democrats that selling themselves to union prejudices is bad politics and bad for Illinois.
Here;s hoping Rauner succeeds,

Comment by Ware Adams Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 3:43 am