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Question of the day

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* What do you think the odds are that the General Assembly passes a full-year, FY17 budget by the end of May? Explain.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 1:49 pm

Comments

Slim. Can’t believe much revenue increases prior to November election.

Comment by blue dog dem Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 1:51 pm
Slim and none. It’s an election year.

Comment by Ryan Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 1:53 pm
0%

Absolutely no chance — especially now that there appears to be a disconnect between the stopgap social service funding and the budget working group.

That pretty much gives it all away. Rauner has no intentions to pass a budget.

Comment by Formerly Known as Frenchie M Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 1:54 pm
0% there hasn’t been an election yet and if the “lawmakers” and “governor” aren’t embarrassed by their conduct at this point there is nothing that will encourage them at this point. So much for “shared sacrifice.”

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 1:55 pm
.01%

because Rauner still hasn’t figured out a single solid win, and all he has to market in November is his…uh, backbone.

Comment by crazybleedingheart Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 1:55 pm
Which May?

Nothing will happen until after the general election.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 1:56 pm
If both sides can agree to not attack the other for revenue votes, and if both sides trust the other implicitly, they’ll get it done. In other words, ZERO chance.

Comment by out of touch Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 1:56 pm
Safe bet is always on doing nothing, right? Now that they’ve managed to find a way to keep the wheels moving without doing anything while should they ever do their job ever again? They’ve become worse than Congress.

Comment by Just Me Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 1:57 pm
0% won’t have 16 done by may let alone 17.

Comment by State Engineer Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 1:57 pm
Slim. I don’t think we have enough courageous legislators nor a reasonable governor to seal the deal.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:00 pm
A googol to one against. Why a googol? I can’t think of a higher number.

Comment by G'Kar Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:00 pm
I wish. This is so disappointing.

Maybe .001% possibility

Comment by Belle Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:02 pm
Defining budget as:

Begin to address past due bills
Begin paying down pension liability
Robinhood school funding formula
Provide path to stabilize Chicago/CPS finances.
Balance FY17 services w/FY17 revenues (less FY 17 revenue used for above).

None.
Therefore FY18 gets worse.

Comment by Fred Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:04 pm
Hahahahaha… oh, you were serious…. HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:04 pm
SLIM TO NONE OR 5% TO 0%

BEFORE AN ELECTION NO TAX INCREASES ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NEEDED.

Comment by MOON Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:05 pm
FY17 will be easy if there is no FY16 budget passed because the state will have eliminated the bill backlog by not having to pay any of the vendors who have outstanding bills.

If a vendor has a contract with the state and there is no appropriation by June 30th then the state cannot pay the vendors.

Comment by Cassiopeia Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:06 pm
1 in 3 chance.

“Why?”

Charleston, Carbondale, and Macomb…

Social Services…

Raunerites running can’t come back empty to these “alleged” constituencies they “represent” while voting, consistently against these groups and still NOT have a budget.

The “Sandack Tweet Spin” could Haunt… If used, correctly.

Gotta show somethin’ for a whole lotta nothin’…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:08 pm
12%. Think the working groups will come create some type of framework for a deal. They’ll take it to each caucus and it’ll be rejected. The dems will kick Rauner another budget which, instead of vetoing outright like he did last time, will line item veto. That same framework will gain more traction after the election.

Comment by Corporate Thug Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:09 pm
0% Rauner won’t let anyone push him around. Rauner is feigning cooperation to blame again in advance of the election.

Comment by Liberty Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:13 pm
No chance for a FY17 budget by the end of May.

Maybe this will happen after the November election by the end of December or January.

Comment by Enviro Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:13 pm
0.001%

They’re not raising revenue prior to the election, thus no budget.

Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:14 pm
500-1 or about the same as the Cubs winning a world series three years ago.

Comment by the Cardinal Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:16 pm
None, still trying to clean up the 2016 mess.

Comment by burbanite Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:16 pm
Nothing wrong with praying that people do the right thing and think of others first and themselves last. Yes, that applies to a true and concerned politician. Let’s hope they are true and concerned and do, in fact, think of themselves last. I will certainly pray for that. A lot of people in this State are hurting due to the selfishness of a few. You know who you are!

Comment by Pray Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:16 pm
Yikes, “1 in 3″ and I’m the optimistic one?

So, 33% is too high?

Show a lil faith, there’s magic in the night…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:16 pm
That the General Assembly passes a full year budget? 100%

That the Governor signs it? 0%

Comment by ILPundit Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:18 pm
50/50 All depends on whether AFSCME/Labor is sold down the river by the DEMS. ei. let HB580 die, allow Rauner to have his Great Labor war. Eliminate prevailing wage. etc. It might be risky but the pain has to stop. 37,000 sin eaters offered up for the sins of the state.

Rauner gets these concessions then he and his owned are on board.

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:19 pm
-OW-

I was being optimistic by saying towards the end of this year. Last night I told someone January, 2019.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:19 pm
TO: Rauner, Madagin, & Cullerton

Prove all the naysayers here wrong guys. Gut it up….forget your personal pride and do the 2016 & 2017 budgets this month. Pretty please!!

Comment by Prove them wrong Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:20 pm
Rich threw a curveball with how the question was phrased, but ILPundit got it right.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:21 pm
50%. I know that sounds high, so let me show my work. You said pass a budget, not pass a balanced budget. You did not say anything about the Governor signing said budget, nor did you say anything about passing a budget with a veto-proof majority. Hence, I have calculated the absolute wishy-washiest prediction possible: The G.A. will repeat last year’s mistake.

Comment by SAP Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:21 pm
I’d be astonished. General Assembly will pass something. Governor will veto. Revenue won’t be addressed until after the election. January 2017, something will happen. But you don’t need to read this far down in the thread to get a sense of that.

Comment by Angry Chicagoan Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:21 pm
The GA passed a budget last year and they will pass one this year. The gov will veto everything but K-12.Dejavu all over again.

Comment by Joe Blow Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:22 pm
- RNUG -

So far you’ve been “RNUGstradamus” on this for a while, bud.

Let’s hope your optimism wins out.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:25 pm
I’m tired of being disappointed, so I’m going to suggest never. Sure, I know that eventually there’ll be a budget, but I’m not expecting it any time soon.

Comment by AC Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:26 pm
If they do pass a budget, k-12 budget will not be a standalone bill. It will either get bundled with something else (higher ed?) or be structured so that it is contingent on enactment of some or all of the remainder of the budget.

Comment by SAP Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:27 pm
Willy - you are indeed the optimistic commenter on this thread. Hoping you are right but I don’t see it happening.

Comment by illini Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:28 pm
50%. Rauner and Madigan will meet in the hall, Madigan will drop is lunch apple, and in a rare display of generosity Rauner bends down to grab it - but so does Madigan. Yep, ‘BONK’.
Something jiggles loose in the brain of one of them, and immediately says “Let’s Get This Done, Pal !!” Having the same effect, presumably, the other smiles, puts his arm around the other shoulder, and they head towards the Governors office, laughing and joshing…….

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:30 pm
so far: 3@50% 1@33% 1@12% and everyone else (30-something) seems to less than 1% or did not give a projection.

ILPundit at 100% for the GA and 0% for the Governor may end up with the correct answer.

Comment by Rufus Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:41 pm
No chance. To do so they will have to pass revenue increases. And Rauner won’t sign off on those until he gets his anti-union agenda. Rauner has reminded us of that often. Plus, passing legislation for new revenue could be tough before an election. So more of the same for a while.

Comment by Joe M Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:44 pm
Agree with ILPundit. Tricky phrasing Rich;)

I don’t see Rauner doing anything for FY17 except trying to get that “clean” education bill signed before August. Otherwise, nothing else until the veto session, and then probably back to piecemealing it until the Spring session with (hopefully) some new faces or reformed yellow/reds.

Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:45 pm
Zero percent. No budget until enough GOP House members stand up to Rauner and provide 71 votes. Rauner doesn’t want to govern, he wants to destroy organized labor (with no mandate to do so)as well as eliminate or greatly reduce state support to higher education and social service providers. As OW and others have stated, communities with universities, community colleges and large numbers of social service agencies need to put pressure on Rauner’s legislative enablers and “vote accordingly”.

Comment by kitty Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:46 pm
Zero chance. This is all part of Rauner’s master plan.

Comment by Omega Man Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:51 pm
75% Feel the Budgeteermentum.

Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 2:52 pm
Don’t forget about the big rally next Wedneday. Everyone is asked to assemble at 5th & Washington at 11AM. From there we march to the Governor’s Mansion and then on to the State Capitol. Labor, Community and Religious Allies are banding together to LET RAUNER KNOW HIS POLICIES ARE WRONG!

Comment by Omega Man Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 3:00 pm
None-

1. As mentioned, it is an election year.

2. Whatever gets proposed, Rauner will torpedo it with his Runaground agenda as his ideology will trump facts

3. There isn’t enough pressure on several Reps and Senators to vote for it. Regardless of OW’s insistence to vote accordingly, there is little competition to vote for.

Comment by Dr X Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 3:10 pm
which year? i think by May 2017 we will have our first budget. 70/30 odds

Comment by Ghost Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 3:16 pm
There is a six percent chance that the General Assembly passes a full-year, FY17 budget by the end of May.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 3:18 pm
MrJM- those “No Opinion” numbers are just as troubling as the “No’s”… sigh…

Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 3:25 pm
===Regardless of OW’s insistence to vote accordingly, there is little competition to vote for.===

In the GA, that’s possible.

If you think there won’t be proxy “Rauner” races in November, you’re not looking hard enough. Lots of ways to “Vote Accordingly”

- illini -

I’m a cup “1/3 full” optimist!

Is this a “trick” question? Maybe. Given we are all stuck on both FY2016 & FY2017 hanging out there.

I’m also of the belief “grand conpromise” will/must/does include BOTH being run or a hybrid, “Super Christmas Tree” agreed to, “we’re all in this together”… package.

One in Three.

Plus, I also took it that if the question is at FY2017, the FY2016 is “settled”

My Bad.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 3:26 pm
What’s the incentive? Rauner has said he wants a “clean” education bill, not a budget. The GA is going for piecemeal, not the whole.

By the end of May? 0% chance

Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 3:56 pm
I’m going waaaaaayy optimistic here - - I say there is a 2 out of 3 chance. It will happen on Memorial Day, May 30th. No one watching the legislators since it is Memorial Day weekend. Something similar happened several years ago with the “Memorial Day Massacre” when several very important financial bills were passed at the eleventh hour with absolutely no one reading the several hundred page bills.

I hope I’m right - - not gonna bet on it, but I hope I’m right - - gotta have a little bit of hope.

Comment by East Central Illinois Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 4:25 pm
.00000000000000000000000000000000064 percent, give or take a..0000000000000000000000000000000000023 .

Comment by clifton yankmaster Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 4:26 pm
I think the Dems will try to pass an almost balanced budget with new revenues, but I am not sure it will happen in May. I do not believe Rauner will allow his peeps to vote for a tax increase in an election year.

Comment by Mama Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 4:31 pm
I’m with RNUG, I think nothing will pass until after the November election.

Comment by Mama Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 4:32 pm
Odds are zero if k-12 is funded first.

Comment by Politix Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 4:43 pm
Very, very close to 0%, because Rauner is on a mission, and backbones are in short supply.

Comment by South Central Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 5:12 pm
“Odds are zero if k-12 is funded first”

I’d agree and 50/50 if they aren’t….

Comment by Mouthy Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 5:17 pm
I say 0%. I don’t see how anything has changed on either side. Perhaps after the November elections as others have commented.

Comment by Turn Around For What? Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 5:27 pm
My Magic 8 Ball says “Outlook not so good”.

Comment by FormerParatrooper Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 5:27 pm
100%

but will the budget be balanced, if not, will governor veto whole thing or line it veto or line item reductions
OR
pass a balance budget that have deeps cuts, let pressure build up and then after election pass tax increase a supplemental budget to restore some cuts

Comment by 13th Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 6:59 pm
None

Comment by Quiet Sage Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 7:09 pm
A budget bill could pass with community colleges and universities at the current reduced level as the new norm…
Community based human services have been so decimated that not more than 2/3 of prior expenditures could be spent in FY 17 due to so many closed agencies. State costs are reduced by the obscenely long waiting lines to receive state services.

Ugly, wrong, ignores what state government exists to do, but fiscally realistic due to the dysfunctional chaos that is today’s Illinois state government. I invite all persons here to read the Preface to the State Constitution to remind yourselves what the purpose of state government is.

Comment by Capitol View Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 7:54 pm
Zilch. Zero. Nada. Zippo.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 8:01 pm
Just isn’t going to happen. Zero %

Comment by DOWNSTATE DEM Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 9:20 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkCa49I6_xw

Comment by A Parent Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 9:44 pm
Maybe not by the end of the month but I really think something needs to happen before the election. Can’t believe either party is willing to take the heat if it goes much further

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 11, 16 @ 10:12 pm
1 in 3 odds is only 25% probability. 1 in 2 odds would be 33%.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:41 am