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Rauner’s unpopular, but so are incumbent legislators

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Illinois
Polls

Gov. Bruce Rauner’s polling numbers are edging dangerously close to Mayor Rahm Emanuel territory. A new survey out today by Morning Consult shows Rauner’s approval dipped 8 percentage points to 34 percent since it conducted a similar survey last year.

The percentage of people who said they disapproved of the way that Rauner is doing his job went up by 9 points, giving him a disapproval rating of 54 percent. According to the Morning Consult rankings, Rauner is the sixth most unpopular governor in America. His numbers dropped during a period that saw an unprecedented Illinois’ budget stalemate persist, leaving social services in a lurch and a very public crisis in higher education that was only recently, partially resolved.

The poll results are here.

* However, a word of caution. This isn’t your usual poll. From an e-mail sent by the company…

More than 66,000 registered voters across America have evaluated the job performance of key elected officials on Morning Consult’s weekly online national polling from early January 2016 through May 5, 2016.

On each poll, Americans indicated whether they approved or disapproved of the job performance of President Barack Obama, their state Governor, both of their U.S. Senators, their Member of Congress and their mayor (if they lived in a city with more than about 10,000 residents). For each question, they could answer strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or don’t know / no opinion.

Morning Consult obtained an up-to-date list of Governors, U.S. Senators and U.S. Representatives from Sunlight Foundation’s Congress API v3 and Open States API and obtained a list of mayors from the U.S. Conference of Mayors. Survey respondents were assigned to their appropriate Governor and both U.S. Senators based on their state of residence, assigned to their Member of Congress based on a combination of zip code, IP address, latitude and longitude, and assigned to their mayor based on their state and zip code.

Morning Consult obtained population parameters for registered voters from the November 2012 Current Population Survey (CPS) and applied post-stratification weights based on gender, age, educational attainment and race. Thus far, the median state includes a total of 883 respondents, the state with the most respondents is California (n = 5,968) and the state with the least respondents is Wyoming (n = 165).

Online polling conducted over five months. I dunno. Maybe.

* But there’s also this…

According to an April 8 poll commissioned by The Illinois Observer for our e-newsletter, The Insider, delivered to subscribers on April 15 (subscribe here) of 703 likely 2016 voters in the district of State Senator Melinda Bush (D-Crystal Lake), a top 2016 GOP target, voters blame Bush over Governor Bruce Rauner – 45.7%-32.2% – for the continuing budget stalemate. 22.1% are undecided.

The survey has a +/- 3.75% margin of error.

Additionally, the poll finds that Bush’s job approval is upside down with just 29.5% approving and 41.3% disapproving. 28.2% are undecided.

That’s a dramatic reversal from a July 6 survey of 556 likely voters commissioned by The Insider that had found that Bush had a 22.3% job approval rate from voters and a 18.5% disapproval or a net positive of 4-points and a whopping 58% were undecided.

That survey, conducted by Chicago-based Ogden & Fry, had a +/- 4.24% margin of error.

As I told you the other day, incumbent legislators are shouldering the blame for this impasse and there are a whole lot more Democratic incumbents than Republicans.

We need a budget deal, man.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:09 am

Comments

–Online polling conducted over five months. I dunno. Maybe.–

I don’t think so. Hardly a snapshot in time.

But what’s to approve of out of Springfield these days, unless you like record deficits at the same time you’re cutting billions from higher ed and social services?

That hardly seems possible, but there it is. It certainly can’t happen by accident. You have to work at it for that achievement.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:19 am
I have no sympathy for incumbents. If anything this has taught us it’s that they haven’t been listening to constituents for a long time. They’ve listened to corporations and lobbyists for far to long and they have led our state into a deep deep forest of troubles. On this, I think both sides can agree. Their judgment is at hand.

Comment by Honeybear Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:20 am
My experience is that although the public may blame both the Governor and Legislature as a body, they don’t necessary blame their legislator. The Governor is held accountable to all Illinois voters whereas a legislator faces voters only within his / her district.

Comment by Stones Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:21 am
Just curious…

Are the people being polled ever asked if they can name their legislative representatives and their governor??? Can they identify the legislative districts they live in???? If they can’t, then IMHO the responses to “rate the approval” questions only capture a general sense of what people are feeling. It’s easy to respond in a fairly generic sense, much harder to respond when pressed for details.

Comment by Anon221 Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:21 am
For those that “approve” Rauner’s job performance, I wonder what they think his job is. Throwing insults? Campaigning when there’s no campaign?

Yes legislative leaders and members are under performing too, but approving his job performance is a stretch.

Maybe they aren’t paying attention.

Comment by Sir Reel Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:23 am
===…incumbent legislators are shouldering the blame for this impasse and there are a whole lot more Democratic incumbents… ===

This is really the crux of the 2016 Fall State/Statehouse races.

The May 18th Rally… with Labor and Social Services taking “on” Rauner, Rauner’s own “incumbency” as a referendum being “proxied” to races to help or the dulling of that “anti-incumbent” aspects for Democrats, and at the same time a rally cry to take ON incumbent Raunerites.

A budget will help Rauner and Raunerites, and allow the rallying against Rauner be dulled by actual action.

“Never mistake activity for Achievement” - John Wooden.

Governors need budgets. Rauner gets his budget, the table turns on all those incumbent Democrats.

The state’s own health requires a budget, so are Democrats willing to go without a budget to build off May 18th’s frustration?

I hope not.

Rauner has united Democrats, Labor and Social Services like no other. A budget, that could really fray that bond, and put on notice ALL incumbents the referendum on Rauner is really a referendum on them all who raised their hands and took the oath in 2015.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:27 am
Re:we need a budget deal man
I believe Christine Radogno said we will have one in 2018

Comment by Foster brooks Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:37 am
I had no idea Melinda Bush represented Crystal Lake!

Comment by AlabamaShake Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:41 am
==are Democrats willing to go without a budget to build off May 18th’s frustration?==

Similarly, is Rauner truly willing to back off his anti union agenda, and sign a budget/tax increase, in order to save Republicans in November? I’m aware that some of his language has changed, but I also suspect he’s not especially fond of giving up his leverage.

Comment by AC Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:42 am
For those who want a refresher-

http://www.elections.state.il.us/districtlocator/districtofficialsearchbyaddress.aspx

Comment by Anon221 Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:44 am
“… a very public crisis in higher education that was only recently, partially resolved.”
The pittance appropriated recently to higher ed was hardly a resolution of the crisis. even a partial one.

Comment by My New Handle Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:44 am
AC- To Rauner, Republicans are replaceable. He’s told them so in many ways.

Comment by Anon221 Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:45 am
Guessers and fools are the only ones who’d dare predict this election season. The natives are well beyond restless.

Comment by A guy Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:48 am
A rich kid comes in and buys the local baseball diamond, refusing to let baseball continue until people agree to his rules: bases will be run from 3rd base to 1st base, and he and his friends always get a hit without the needed at-bat. They also always get a triple or a home run at their discretion. All other players must agree to buy only snacks from the rich guy, with all profits going to him. Spectators pay a fee to enter the ballpark, but the stands are in such bad shape that they regularly get hurt. The rich kids rules state, however, that all injuries are 100% the fault of the careless, injured spectator.

Now, the spectators and the other players, are resisting these changes, but the rich guy refuses to let a game go forward without his new rules being enacted first.

There hasn’t been a game for 15 months. Some people say a pox on all their houses, blaming them all for not reaching agreement, while others see the rich kid, and his new rules as totally unfair to the vast majority of both spectators, the other players, and the game of baseball itself.

Now some say those stands are in bad shape because of past negligence from the previous owner, but the rich kid won’t explain how his new rules will reform baseball to the benefit of all. He has stated, however, that while he’s frustrated that the stands are in such bad shape, fixing them without implementing his baseball reforms first will just result in them needing more and more repairs in the future.

… and so goes Illinois

Comment by PublicServant Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:50 am
the Politico report says CEO’s consider Illinois in the bottom 5 worst state for business ranked 48th. Only New York and California trail us. We are ranked 46 th for taxation and regulation. We have spent the last year fighting about our business environment. Every description of Rauner’s plan describes it as pro business anti Union.

There is a lane a mile wide for a Democratic alternative that is pro business and not anti Union.

The fact we see no acknowledgement of our sorry anti business reputation or any alternative solutions from the majority party in the GA is truly disgraceful.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:50 am
I noted in a Lee News clip this week that the Illinois Policy Institute stopped in Decatur for a fundraiser/pep rally….
They commented that as long as there is a budget impasse, taxpayers are winning.
“Every day of the budget impasse is a victory for taxpayers,” Tillman said.
More evidence of a coordinated strategy by Rauner, et al, to drag this thing out until after the election.
I would hasten to add that Rauner/Tillman win over audiences when they are covered by non-Spfld reporters outside the political fishbowl.

Comment by Austin Blvd Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:51 am
I think Honeybear and Stones are both right and there in lies a bit of a paradox: Throw the bums our, but my guy or gal is ok. Most (not sure what that really means numerically, 51%) like their local legislator. Especially if they work their district thoroughly. It is more typically the odd legislator thatticks off his or her home district. Hence why we usually end up with the same thing.

Still, Honeybears statement on lobbyists and Corporations rings true for me.

Comment by JS Mill Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:53 am
“Every day of the budget impasse is a victory for taxpayers,” (Illinois Policy Institute Executive Director) Tillman said.
http://herald-review.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/group-advocates-for-state-government-accountability/article_4463be4c-304a-5492-886f-81cc0d4ace8c.html

Comment by Austin Blvd Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:54 am
- Lucky Pierre -

If you’re not with Rauner you’re against ALL reforms again?

C’mon, do better than that. We discussed this, Rich had a Post about arguing like this, please argue like an adult.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:56 am
Lucky:

You want to know what the first pro-business thing that can be done is? Pass a budget.

And, by the way, we’ve spent the last year fighting about the budget.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:56 am
I hope that any budget that does pass, whenever that happens, gets detailed scrutiny. “Member initiatives” or “legislative add-ons” or whatever term for the vaguely defined appropriations is currently in vogue that individual legislators get for their districts and local friends can add up to millions of dollars. I think of Ricky Hendon’s $20,000 gifts, and other similar approps. This type of appropriations are rarely exposed or audited for how the money is actually spent.

Comment by My New Handle Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:58 am
Lucky Pierre, that should be a small d.

Comment by Original Rambler Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:03 am
It should be easy to list all of the business friendly reforms proposed by the Democratic leaders since Rauner’s election except there aren’t any. No stem winding speeches about how our State ranks 48th and what we need to do to change the trajectory. Just mockery from the Senate President about the depth of the problem and nothing from the Speaker.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:03 am
Oh geez…

===“Member initiatives” or “legislative add-ons” or whatever term for the vaguely defined appropriations is currently in vogue that individual legislators get for their districts and local friends can add up to millions of dollars.===

Really? We’ve been without a budget for 14 months, so where is the “vogue” happening now in Illinois?

$38 billion in budgetary spending, you’re talking “millions” while both the budget, “millions” in these thibgs aren’t happening and you’re wringing your hands?

Victimhood to spending on a non-existent budget. Whew!

==+I think of Ricky Hendon’s $20,000 gifts, and other similar approps.===

When did Rickey Hendin find his way back into the GA?

Yeah, um, please keep it to members “currently” around?

Thanks.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:03 am
Anon221, I hope you’re wrong, but I fear you’re correct. If Republicans are expendable to Rauner, the state is expendable too

Comment by AC Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:04 am
- Lucky Pierre -

You’re a troll, I fed you, my bad, good luck.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:05 am
.@GovRauner says he’s cheering for social service providers suing #Illinois. “It’s ridiculous. What state in America doesn’t pay its bills?”

Rauner running the state like a business… But fails in understanding governing…

===Dude, you vetoed their appropriations bill…===

Incumbency means doing the job at hand.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:09 am
“the Politico report says CEO’s consider Illinois in the bottom 5 worst state for business ranked 48th. Only New York and California trail us”

Amazing since the states mentioned are also in the top 5 in GDP. How’re MS and AL doing, in both categories?

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:09 am
A budget, that could really fray that bond

A budget would definitely drive a wedge between Labor and Social services/higher ed/et al. Labor would be isolated and alone. That’s why I gave it a 50/50 chance yesterday. I believe Rauners only goal is the destruction of labor as evidenced a MILLION times. Producing and passing a budget with revenues would only marginally piss off ILGOP (not Raunerites who are too wealthy to really care about the taxes they pay battalions of CPA’s to get out of) and Labor who would be crippled by the loss of collective bargaining, PLA, and Prevailing wage. Then Rauner can focus all ire on AFSCME with the contract impasse. I think Rauner, if he is smart, will laser focus on a budget. He has everything to win with a budget. People will go back to sleep once the money is flowing again. They, the public, won’t care that this cost us billions, laid off thousands, destroyed our social services. They don’t care to begin with.

Comment by Honeybear Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:10 am
Honey@9:20. When you said, “they have listened to corporation and lobbyists to long”, you did mean to include AFSCME,SEIU and CTU into the group of lobbyists didnt you?

Comment by blue dog dem Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:11 am
I’m wary of “throwing the bums out” for so-called outsiders. Because of that we got Rauner, and because of that Trump is the GOP presumptive nominee. Quinn was a backbencher, as someone put it, but he was far and away a better governor than Rauner, which says more about Rauner than Quinn. Voting for outsiders has to be a case by case basis.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:15 am
Nice try Blue dog but it’s obvious that legislators are not listening to us since we are likely to get sold down the river by the Dems. And it’s obvious they haven’t listened because Madigan used to be enemy #1 to AFSCME. You also have to look at the disproportionate amounts that private companies and private sector lobbyist have spent on elections compared to labor money. It’s like seven to one ( somebody help me out with the numbers. That’s the last one I remember but I bet it’s outdated) No the reason why you and your ilk are spoonfed that bs is because public unions are one of the most significant portions of funding for DEMS.

Comment by Honeybear Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:21 am
Well said, Public Servant!

Comment by D.P.Gumby Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:24 am
“Online polling conducted over five months. I dunno. Maybe.”

I’d file it as ‘history’ rather than ‘news’…

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:25 am
=PublicServant - Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 9:50 am:=

+1

Comment by Mama Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:29 am
Honey, as a born again independent, your last sentence says it all. By the way. Over the last 24 years, I have tallied my general election voting percentages. Dem candidates 65%. Republican candidates 35%.just thought you would like to know.

Comment by blue dog dem Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:29 am
It looks like those pro business lobbyists are doing a terrible job

Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:38 am
@Public Servant

Replace “union grounds keeper” for “rich kid” in your story and it’s probably right!

Comment by Zonker Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:39 am
@Zonker, Once the union groundskeeper was let go by the rich kid, his budy’s firm was brought in to take care of the stands. Some say that’s when most of the deterioration began to occur. Woody, the union groundskeeper, had been around for years, and he knew the stands we’ll. He’d use available funds to fix the ones that were most in need of repair, but there were never enough funds to properly repair everything. The new guy’s custodial firm pays minimum wage, and the groundskeepers are always quiting, but when they’re at the ballpark, they just shuffle back and forth with a broom, or hide in the groundskeeper’s utility room. Occasionally we see the owner of the firm come by, but that’s just to pick up his check from the rich kid.

… And so goes Illinois

Comment by PublicServant Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 10:48 am
- Honeybear -

Keep in mind, it was November 2014 that sealed Labor’s immediate fate.

It was never the budgetary impasse, because had Rauner gotten a budget last May or June for FY2016, you’d still be in the very same situation THIS coming May or June, if the result is what is so desperately needed happens… a budget.

It not the result of the budget that should scare Labor. What should scare Labor is Labor itself reverting back to 2 in 5 supporting Rauner.

Take care of your “own house”, keep Social Service groups and Democrats, and non-Raunerites engaged… a budget will be a blessing to all of Illinois and allow those forces that were put in such danger to remember what pawns they were.

No matter your read, budget good or bad or indifferent, your position with Rauner was never going to change to the positive with a budget.

With respect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 11:00 am
“You want to know what the first pro-business thing that can be done is? Pass a budget. ”

This is so laughably stupid. Though it fully shows just why Illinois is at the bottom of the barrel in so many categories.

Comment by Tone Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 11:02 am
What SPECIFICALLY are so-called business friendly reforms?

It sounds nice but what is it exactly.

Thank you,
Brooks Hatlen

Comment by Brooks Hatlen Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 11:20 am
Thank you Grandson of Man. You hit the nail on the head. Its done on a case by case basis.

Best,
Brooks

Comment by Brooks Hatlen Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 11:22 am
===Though it fully shows just why Illinois is at the bottom of the barrel in so many categories.===

If having no budget is laughable, why is it that even business groups and organizations are begging for a budget?

If not having a budget is good for business and the business climate, Illinois should be flourishing?

Maybe government has little or no impact on the economy? Business and customers might have more impact? You’re one confusing troll, - Tone -

It’s precious, your unmitigated “anger” thou. It’s endearing.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 11:24 am
Of course in years past we have had a budget and a terrible business environment at the same time. How could that be possible in your world OW and Ddmoralized. Put the goalie uniform away hockey season is over.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 11:28 am
- Lucky Pierre -

I read your comment. Good luck.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 11:31 am
Voted for Rauner.

Comment by blue dog dem Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 11:33 am
Lucky:

Once again on the absolutism train are we? Only in your world Lucky is suggesting that a budget get passed automatically turn into “well, you want things the way they are.”

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 11:48 am
== - blue dog dem - Voted for Rauner. ==

But the question is, knowing what you know now, would you vote for him again?

FWIW, I voted for Quinn, the one and only time to date that I have voted D for Governor.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 11:50 am
Tone:

. . . Oh, never mind . . . your ridiculous rantings aren’t worth it.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 11:50 am
RNUG. Hell no. He is not the budget hawk I had hoped for.

Comment by blue dog dem Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 12:03 pm
“What do you mean I’m number 6 on the list? I’m gonna get to number 1, you wait and see!”

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 12:11 pm
Did Rauner spends millions to tap into that anger to dump sam and keep whatshisname…. the anger may be there, and lots of money, bit making it flow the way tou want doesnt appear to be working for the GOP

Comment by Ghost Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 12:35 pm
Good news for the 25th district State Senate race.

Comment by Hedley Lamarr Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 12:36 pm
While I enjoy seeing Rauner on that list, the sobering thing is that 7 of those 10 governors recently won reelection campaigns.

Comment by list Thursday, May 12, 16 @ 1:01 pm