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Budgeting, negotiating and hunkering down

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Illinois

[GOP Rep. David Harris] said the continued impasse is due in part to the difficult and contentious policy issues, such as collective bargaining, worker’s compensation, prevailing wage and property tax freezes.

Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Evanston) said those ancillary policy disputes and the budget are the two major problems facing the state legislature right now.

“The budget problem is important – really important – and difficult – really difficult, but there’s kind of a mechanism to come together. You can average two numbers. You know what halfway between my budget idea and your budget idea looks like,” Biss said. “On some of these policy questions … you have diametrically opposite core philosophies. And so if the goal is to get all of those things worked out simultaneously, I think you’re going to have a great degree of difficulty getting there.”

Biss is mostly right about the budget, but there are always ways to find avenues for agreement on those non-budget issues. The Democrats whacked the teachers unions a few years back with their education reforms that private citizen Bruce Rauner was pushing at the time, for instance. They’ve taken away some union collective bargaining rights on outsourcing some school contracts in Chicago. They whacked AFSCME and the teachers on pensions… twice. They even jammed up the trial lawyers years ago on behalf of the Medical Society.

The problem isn’t the way forward, necessarily, it’s the will to move forward. And if there’s no will, there ain’t no way. And there’s very little will in the House Democratic caucus because everything has been so divisive for a year and a half and their leader is leading them away from compromise.

* But he’s right on this point…

Biss said getting rank-and-file members to agree on a budget might be a path to success.

“I think there is an extremely strong opportunity for rank-and-file legislators to push. I think if you’re saying, will there be a coup where one of the four leaders is deposed? I think that’s unlikely simply because the situation is so tense that people tend to hunker down together,” Biss said.

Yep, and that’s something that the House Democrats still don’t quite understand. They expected a House Republican coup months ago. They’ve predicted it on a regular basis ever since. It hasn’t happened. Yes, the Republicans have risen up in protest, particularly on veto overrides, but the governor’s people are smart enough to know how to avoid a defeat on those things. They specialize in it.

So, maybe it’ll happen, but grumbling in the ranks is an extremely common thing. Just because they’re yelling about Rauner or Durkin in private (and I’ve heard it, as have others) doesn’t mean they’ll actually do anything about it. Open revolts are extremely rare around these parts.

And the same goes for the governor. He truly believed he could peel off significant numbers of House Democrats to force Madigan to the table. Hasn’t happened. Maybe it will happen, but experience says it probably won’t. They’re all hunkered down together.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 1:49 pm

Comments

In Flanders fields where the poppies grow.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 1:53 pm
The House numbers are as follows…

68 Dems, 3 Free agents, 47 Republican/Raunerites (depending on voting against their districts for “RaunerBucks”, but I digress…)

The only peeling going on is Dunkin, Franks, and Drury.

===… but the governor’s people are smart enough to know how to avoid a defeat on those things. They specialize in it.===

“Meep-Meep!”

Only an agreed to Structured Roll Call, with Rauner’s absolute blessing and Madigan’s protection for the Targets will any “peeling” occur.

It’s like watching the DMZ at “Checkpoint Charlie” during the height of the Cold War…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 1:57 pm
We already had the “Quote of the Year,” but that is excellent, Honeybear.

Comment by Keyrock Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 1:57 pm
Would it be out of line to call in Jimmy Carter to mediate a compromise?

Comment by illinoised Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 1:58 pm
==but there are always ways to find avenues for agreement on those non-budget issues==

+100. We should all know there is a moderate path to agreement and reform on many of those issues.

Why? Because we read many of those compromise suggestions right here, in posts and in comments, months ago.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:00 pm
So, explain to me why the “will” has to be to whack unions? I get that’s what you think should happen since it doesn’t affect you, but it will affect a hell of a lot of people and have big consequences for the elections. There could be a “will” to abandon the union attacks, why not mention that angle? Neither one is going to happen, but to present that the only option is to whack unions is misleading.

Comment by checkers Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:05 pm
I don’t know, maybe I’m an idiot (which is likely), but there seems to be an easy fix to all of this.

Step one: Separate the budget debate from the non-budgetary items.

There is no Step two.

I really don’t see how the D’s can allow them to be linked any longer. If they are linked, this tactic will be used every year.

Comment by Try-4-Truth Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:06 pm
Prior to the inauguration I believed that if Rauner played his cards right, he could come to an agreement with Madigan on ways to clip AFSCME’s wings. This was based upon the items Rich mentioned above. Luckily for AFSCME, Gov. Winner’s ham-handed approach was to declare war on all unions. Then came the FY 15 budget fix fiasco, the continued war of words and the bad faith contract negotiations have hardened the Dems position.

No there will be no agreement limiting collective bargaining.

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:07 pm
The House votes are very important, but so are Rauner’s vetoes. If he continues the hard stance that unless reform poison pills are part and parcel of budget bills, then we will get nowhere. He seems to relish in watching the hard work, bipartisan or not, go down in flames because he knows the overrides will not be there. I’m really saddened and at wits end that this is still going to be the pattern until after the General if there are not bipartisan votes standing together in the House on issues that are vital to the STATE of Illinois, and not the will (and money) of Rauner.

Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:09 pm
Mr. Biss, it’s actually really simple. Illinois has one of the highest unemployment rates, one of the slowest job growth rates, currently has the 4th highest tax burden in the nation and is losing population faster than every state other than West Virginia. The ways of the past haven’t worked. Try something new. Your public union pals need to take a large hit.

Comment by Tone Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:10 pm
“Will” to “compromise” in the sense of this post really means to accede to hostage taking. Is that a way to resolve the impasse? Yes. Is it a good idea? No.

Comment by JackD Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:10 pm
===Prior to the inauguration I believed that if Rauner played his cards right, he could come to an agreement with Madigan on ways to clip AFSCME’s wings.===

Agree, 100%. It was when Rauner went to Decatur, went after the Trades, the Turnaround Resolutions, and Madeupville’s being touted by “ck” in the emails.

Rauner went way too big, it costed him.

Plus, mending a fence with the Trades, yikes…

The three mistakes, the one above, the ridiculous abandonment of the Thompson Pivot, and begging for the income tax to sunset.

All three continue to haunt

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:14 pm
Rauner has been clear its his way or the veto. If it isn’t resolved in Nov, then Nov, then Nov…

Comment by Liberty Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:15 pm
Past legislation may have taken away SOME collective bargaining rights of teachers and public employees - but isn’t what Rauner is going for - is to take wages and health insurance benefits out of collective bargaining? Those are core issues. Without being able to bargain wages and health benefits, Rauner’s plans would effectively kill public unions, as Walker did in Wisconsin.

Comment by Joe M Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:18 pm
Rich, you forgot about “screwing” the CTA unions in 2007. Their pensions, healthcare, and all sorts of benefit were slashed to save the CTA. The unions were livid but the Speaker told them if they wanted to keep their jobs at all they needed to agree to these changes.

Comment by Just Me Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:19 pm
@Tone- You really need to take an economics course. You really don’t have a clue. And, try to find a non-partisan study for taxes. Although in reality, taxes have zero to do with economic growth.

Paying your bills, well, that is another story…..

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:30 pm
“May 17, 16 @ 2:19 pm:”

The changes started with the CTA in the late 80s. I worked summers there during college and seeing the destruction of the Union helped motivate me to stay in school.

They started hiring part timers and paid them horrible wages with little to no benefits. People were always hoping to go full time.

It is sad what happened to the CTA.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 2:40 pm
Senator Biss suggestion on splitting the difference is a comical way to budget. All one would have to do is make their initial ask twice as much as they wanted and then they could cut their demand in half showing the other side how “reasonable” they are being. End result, no real savings.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 3:00 pm
So history is on Rauner’s side.

Demand unreasonable changes to weaken union workers’ rights and then, in the spirit of compromise whack a union.

I wonder how long it will be before Rauner makes his next unreasonable union weakening demand after that?

Death spiral for the 99%, just another’s day work for the 1%.

Comment by Chicago 20 Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 3:43 pm
==the 4th highest tax burden in the nation==

Any sources?

The Wallethub study from April says Illinois residents actually have the 1st highest effective state and local tax rate.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 3:53 pm
Path for AFSCME - win more D seats in Nov. introduce another arbitration bill in January. Win veto override. Now I see why Rauner is trying to fast-track his labor board case to force a strike before the election.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 6:28 pm
They won’t stay hunkered down once we hit the guard rail (e.g. a university closing, serious vendor problems, no K-12, or large charity shutdown).

Comment by peon Tuesday, May 17, 16 @ 6:45 pm
The unions (AFSCME) need to relize that they have things nobody in the private sector gets. Overtime after 37.5 hours, pensions were you get 80% of your final income and low cost health insurance.In addition the state is using systems from the 1970’s when this is 2016. We need to stream line state government. Rauner is right on. No budget until we have reforms with unions, worker comp reform and make the the state moe hospitable to business. This is the only way Illinois gets out of this mess. In addition we will need to raise taxes.

Comment by Dandy Edward Wednesday, May 18, 16 @ 12:35 am
== pensions were you get 80% of your final income ==

Not quite accurrate. The average Tier 1 State worker can only get 75% of their final 4 year average income, and then only after 45 years of working.

== In addition the state is using systems from the 1970’s ==

True but … a lot of large businesses are also using those same old systems in their operations; they’ve just put a pretty graphic PC based interface on the front-end that the public sees.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, May 18, 16 @ 5:57 am
- Dandy Edward -

That’s 1.4% and $500+ million in “streamlining Illinois”

Plus, between the pesky constitution and things collectively bargained, Rauner is selling a bill of goods, until he shuts down the state. If you and Rauner think unions are so bad, “proving” it with 1.4% and $500+ million gains for Illinois isn’t cutting it.

People make too much money isn’t a political philosophy, it’s a philosophy to to decide what people should make, no matter what the market says it should be.

Your anger is disappointing.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 18, 16 @ 7:04 am
=== there are always ways to find avenues for agreement on those non-budget issues. ===

There WERE always ways to find avenues for agreement.

Rauner does not play by those rules.

Rauner is on a self-described mission to destroy the Democratic majority and the labor movement. His plan to achieve both is by dividing them.

This is not like all of those other cases that Rauner keeps describing. He knows it, Madigan knows it, and the sooner we all recognize it, the sooner we will arrive at a solution.

Comment by Juvenal Wednesday, May 18, 16 @ 8:49 am
Oswego Willy you tell me how the state of Illinios will pay for all this. Madigan/Cullerton and Quinn lied to us an said the temporary income tax will solve our budget problem, but it didn’t. No one is saying unions are bad including Rauner. What he is saying is they need to be reasonable. Just like private companies services need to be stream lined and [provided efficiently. Just raising taxes hurts the mild class, which includes a lot off people not in unions.

Comment by Dandy Edward Wednesday, May 18, 16 @ 11:37 am