Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Facing the abyss

Posted in:

Illinois
Updated Posts

* Subscribers know much more about the latest plan and the reaction from the governor. I’m expecting to see it pop sometime today. In the meantime, here’s the Tribune…

Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton didn’t flinch when they passed a budget far out of balance in 2014 — heavy on the spending and without the revenue to pay for it. They didn’t flinch when they passed an out-of-balance budget in 2015. And now, all signs point to a repeat performance for 2016.

If Democrats again send Rauner an unbalanced budget, it will be time for the governor to end the standoff himself. Time to use his veto pen to strip spending line by line, something he avoided last year, instead vetoing the entire spending plan, except for education. If Rauner doesn’t act, Illinoisans could go another year with no budget — another year of spending at unsustainable levels, another year of debt piling up, another year of the state’s most vulnerable citizens harmed.

A truly balanced budget in this debt-ridden, spend-happy state will be ugly and far worse than what social service providers have experienced so far. But if Democrats insist on riding the Tilt-A-Whirl at fantasy land instead of actually governing, Rauner will have to do what he promised as a candidate: make the tough, painful decisions himself.

* The budget office has repeatedly explained that the governor can’t balance the budget with line-item vetoes alone because lots of spending is mandated in state law or by federal courts. Even so, Gov. Rauner could reduce at least some spending that way. I just don’t think he will because then he’d have to own all those individual cuts and he ain’t much of an owner. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong.

They don’t want to do reduction vetoes, either, by the way, because those can be overridden with simple majorities.

So, I’m not sure what the outcome is gonna be. We’re pretty well stuck if the leaders can’t come to a bipartisan agreement.

* Related…

* ADDED: State’s lost year about to become two as budget cliff nears

* Some charter schools won’t survive proposed CPS budget cuts

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:47 am

Comments

I hate to say it but if they send it up like it has been in the past all full and laden down with pork… it should be just VETOed in whole… That puts us all in a bad position as a state for everyone, but hey has the state we don’t have a budget now and has the state shut down yet? Maybe it should … just shut down, close up shop all across the state … they the pressure would be enough that work might get done.

Comment by Allen D Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:53 am
The willful ignorance of the Tribbie edit board never ceases to amaze.

Seriously, how can you even pretend to be following along and be that clueless? And put it in writing, for all the world to see?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:54 am
“But if Democrats insist on riding the Tilt-a-Whirl at fantasy land instead of governing…”

Um, governing is not the Democrats’ job, it’s Rauner’s. And he’s done a terrible job of it.

Comment by ABC Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:55 am
“governing is not the Democrats’ job”

Might wanna take a basic civics course….sheesh.

Comment by Saluki Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:59 am
Don’t look now, but what the Trib is really doing with this is advising Rauner to capitulate. But my, they are sore losers.

Comment by an independent Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:00 am
“Governing is not the democrats job” I guess we can just toss that co equal branches of government out the window.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:06 am
The budget they passed in 2014 was not “heavy on spending without the revenue to pay for it.”

They deliberately underfunded appropriated certain areas of Government (namely DHS and DOC). Cuts could have been made to live within those appropriations, but neither Governors Quinn nor Rauner wanted to wear the jacket for implementing those reductions (and in Governor Rauner’s defense, he just got there). That’s why a huge supplemental was passed, the first bill Governor Rauner signed into law, coupled with over $1 billion in fund sweeps to pay for it.

Comment by Juice Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:07 am
=== lots of spending is mandated in state law===

Bogus. The two are not connected. Programs might be mandated by state law, and a court may indeed mandate they be provided, but that does not legally prevent the governor from vetoing the appropriation. It just makes the veto impossible to defend.

=== or by federal courts. ===

See above.

===then he’d have to own all those individual cuts and he ain’t much of an owner.===

There is the crux. When it comes to individual line items, i don’t think the governor has the spine to tell Voter X “no.” He is a salesman, the public are his customers, and salesmen do not like to have unhappy customers.

But the even bigger issue is this: a line item veto means a string of votes to override those line items, and when it comes to individual line items I think the governor will have a very, very hard time keeping GOP members off of every single vote. Every line item has a constituency, no matter how finite, for whom that lime item is the single most important issue. It could be a cause or a contract for a company.

Plus, a simple majority is all that is needed to override those line item reductions. Even if the gov succeeds in keeping all Republicans off, most of those vetoes will likely be overridden.

And once the funds are appropriated, the governor is gonna have a REALLY hard time not spending the money to provide services.

Comment by Juvenal Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:09 am
It’s time for Rauner to man up (sorry for the gender identity issue) and balance the budget based upon realistic projected revenues. Rather than hitting the poor and sick, he should hit the budget where it hurts Madigan the most…deferrable capital work and all other capital work not required for immediate safety concerns. He also needs to hit public ed. Illinois can’t afford to keep funding K-12 education at 18% per student above national average while the cost index for Illinois for everything else is a little below the national average. Revenue sharing by sales taxes to municipalities should be cut if legal. All discretionary spending, you know, those grants to “community organizers” to spend millions without any clear and measurable goals need to be cut, especially those that aren’t smart enough to get lower cost services by community service. Those nebulous pork grants “to reduce gun violence” and the like need to go if for no other reason that they don’t work.

Of course, he can’t budget raises and benefits increased state contributions for state employees.

Let Madigan figure out what he has to legislate to make that happen.

In short, we need an “austerity budget” that would put Greece to shame. If Madigan wants more money from Illinois residents to pay for his pork, let HIM pass the tax increase and override the veto!

Comment by Illinois Bob Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:13 am
Lucky and Saluki - fair enough, it wasn’t a well-thought out comment, and I commented while distracted by something else going on. But I still stand by the last sentence in my comment.

Comment by ABC Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:15 am
All that work by the bipartisan budget group, just thrown away. smh.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:15 am
Wouldn’t a pension holiday “save” about $7 billion next year? That’d be one way to balance the budget next year and delay the day of reckoning again. Let’s see exactly how far we can kick the can down the road.

Perhaps that would give them time to iron out some of the other issues, especially a path forward on revenue, without a complete collapse of higher education and social services.

It’s a horrible idea, but it might be the most painless in the short term.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:15 am
The governor likes to build machines that make others do his dirty work. Tax freezes only if they compell counties to suppress wages. Bankruptcy that lets government shed union contracts. No budget until the Democrats send him his personal agenda. acts only when he can create a buffer and pretend it’s someone else’s doing.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:17 am
What is it with you Bob and your quest for average funding?

You are about the only person I know who thinks we should spend LESS on K-12 education.

I don’t know why you have this vendetta against K-12 education. You love to paint with a broad brush when you talk about K-12 education but I can tell you with absolute certainty that where I live more needs to be spent, not less. You want to argue about some specific school district? Fine. But enough with your nonsense advocating average spending for K-12 education as if it’s some monolithic enterprise statewide.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:19 am
If the legislature sends him a budget that’s wildly out of balance, what choice does he have other than to veto it or cut it? Dems can’t not fund state government and argue it’s Rauner’s fault.

Comment by jim Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:20 am
Agreed Rauner should take ownership of a budget with specified cuts - if you can afford to fund all these primary races, you can afford to run some radio/tv ads telling your side of the story. My only comment: if he does this, how does that affect the likelihood of aid to CPS?

Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:21 am
While you were posting this, I was writing something about the latest editorial too. I’ve included the link above in my name, as I’m not sure if it’s kosher to self-link in a comment.

Let’s just say that it’s appalling how much blame-shifting they’re attempting on Rauner’s behalf in the article, but not surprising given their pedigree.

Comment by Bryan Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:28 am
2010 balanced with borrowing
2011 pushed $1 Bill in unpaid bills into 2012
2014 out of balance budget
2015 out of balance budget

But Rauner is the reason we don’t have a balanced budget? The GA’s track record says otherwise. The GA is the constant in those out of balance budgets, not Rauner.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:28 am
>but neither Governors Quinn nor Rauner wanted to wear the jacket for implementing those reductions (and in Governor Rauner’s defense, he just got there)

In Governor Quinn’s defense, he did cut human services spending, balance the budget, start paying down the bill backlog and make the pension payment. Quinn was not popular with human service providers or with AFSCME. I see no way whatsoever to defend Rauner’s choice to destroy human services and higher education.

Comment by Earnest Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:29 am
FKA:

So you’re on the bandwagon that Rauner is the victim in all of this? You’re right. He wasn’t around then. But he is now. It’s on his head too right now. I’m so sick and tired of the “Rauner is a victim” garbage. Nobody is a victim here. They all are the problem. And I mean ALL of them.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:33 am
@Demoralized

I just tried to post a detailed response about my experience in public education and why I think Illinois is able to provide equal of better quality for far less money. Maybe Rich will allow it to be posted, maybe not.

Identify your school district and I might be able to refute your claim that your school “needs” more money.

Comment by Illinois Bob Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:41 am
FKA:
“But Rauner is the reason we don’t have a balanced budget? The GA’s track record says otherwise. The GA is the constant in those out of balance budgets, not Rauner.”

No, Rauner is the reason we don’t have a budget PERIOD. Balanced or unbalanced (which his proposed budgets have not been balanced), he’s vetoed the budget.

Comment by Bryan Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:51 am
IB, do you think your suggestion is a viable one for a governor who has pledged increased k-12 funding? I don’t. Your beliefs are yours, but you need to think seriously about whether you should share them with sentient beings. They’re going to think you weird

Comment by steve schnorf Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:52 am
Why does the Tribune keep referring to an appropriations bill as a budget?

Are they just trying to confuse the public?

The Illinois constitution says that it is the Governor’s job to present a balanced budget to the GA for approval.

Comment by Chicago 20 Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:54 am
“In short, we need an “austerity budget” that would put Greece to shame.”

You want to see people flee the state, you’d do a good job with that, Illinois Bob.

Greece is in horrible shape - still. We don’t live in Greece, thank the deities, and we shouldn’t bear the brunt of political hot-potato in a U.S. state.

Comment by Bryan Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:55 am
=Identify your school district and I might be able to refute your claim that your school “needs” more money.=

So, you don’t know anything about his local district but you think you can already “refute” the need for additional funding.

I get it, you do not seek answers, just info to support your doctrine right or (mostly) wrong.

Thanks for providing empirical evidence that you should be ignored (by any name Zonker, AZ). Not that I didn’t know that anyway.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:00 pm
==Nobody is a victim here. They all are the problem. And I mean ALL of them.==

@Demoralized - I agree. There are no victims or angels here. That was in response to some of the comments blaming solely Rauner for this.

Rauner could sign another out of balance budget, like his predecessors. But if that is what the public wanted, then Quinn likely would have won instead of Rauner. Though I do feel one person in particular is obstructing compromise and progress, there is lots of blame to go around.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:06 pm
No rich people in Illinois. Nope, not a single one. The billionaires are broke. Every single one! See their empty out turned pockets. All bow to the 3% income tax (or face the consequences!).

Comment by James Knell Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:09 pm
What?? we all know this is about leverage not cuts…

Comment by Liberty Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:13 pm
@Bryan

the problem isn’t that people are leaving the state, it’s WHO is leaving the state.

Sensible cutting at the state level would be a disincentive for the political entitlement class to stay. That’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Getting the spending fixed with fair but minimal tax increases would help keep the revenue producers hear, and perhaps entice a few others to come. I see that as a good thing.

Seriously, what political payrollers are going to leave because they didn’t get a raise? Where would they go to get another public job that pays better?

Comment by Illinois bob Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:15 pm
Looks like I’m on Rich’s “autoblock” where posters can slam me but I can’t respond.

I do understand that it’s a privilege to post here, but c’mon, Rich, at least let me defend myself or delete the attacks.

Comment by Illinois Bob Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:18 pm
Ready ! Aim ! Spend ! … .Constitutionally I beleive the Gov can’t sign an out of balance budget. And even if he could why would he? Thats the difference between someone who is fiscally responsible and someone that is not. The once and formerlly great state of Illinois has to learn to live within its means like the people. We have pretty much leveraged every thing there is to leverage.

Comment by NorthsideNoMore Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:22 pm
===Looks like I’m on Rich’s “autoblock”===

Nope. At least I don’t think so. It’s what you write, not who’s writing it. Be a bit more moderate in your words, if not in your thoughts.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:26 pm
The Tribune didnt me tion the govenors budget jad a 7 billion hole in it as well….. filled with magic revenue like…. made 2billiin by shutting off bathroom lights at cms and checking vending machina for loose change.

Tribune, new owner same blinders to the gov doing the exact same thing, a unbalanced budget. also the prior budgets were nalances and the atate had surplus money used to lay down bills. again tribune why not report how the state was doing well with the prior budgets.

Comment by Ghost Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:30 pm
OK Rich. If only Dem “moderate” political thought is allowed and views challenging the political folks will not be tolerated, I get it.

Let the Oswegos, JSMILLS and Demoralized’s vent all they want…

Comment by Illinois Bob Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:40 pm
- NorthsideNoMore - @ 12:22 pm
== Illinois has to learn to live within its means ==

And what exactly are “its means”? How did you arrive at that?

Comment by James Knell Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:47 pm
===If only Dem “moderate” political thought is allowed===

You missed my point. It’s not your thought, it’s your words. Choose them more carefully.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:48 pm
IB. Old blue is also for an ‘ austerity.budget’. This is my biggest gripe with the Raun Man. Give me $3 to $4billion in real cuts and I can live with certain tax increases. Without any cuts, I can’t support any tax increases.

Comment by blue dog dem Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:58 pm
Bob:

Thanks, I can analyze my own school district and I think I know there needs a little better than you do.

You’ve made it perfectly clear that you are in favor of “average.” It doesn’t matter what anyone says about K-12 education, you’re going to come back with the same response. You want “average.” Great goal, Bob.

Again, your vendetta against K-12 education in Illinois is just mind boggling. Your seeming hatred for teachers is mind boggling. I don’t know who wronged you but you were clearly wronged at some point because no rational person has the beliefs that you do.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:59 pm
IB- I was not venting. I was simply summarizing/paraphrasing what you were saying.

Your mantra is constant and never changing. I am generally supportive of the public education in Illinois but there are times when I may be critical of public education as well.

Rich has pulled my comments as well. I am not offended by that, it was probably good as the comments did not add to the discussion productively and it is Rich’s well established prerogative.

This blog is a place for grown ups. Act accordingly.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 1:18 pm
–Rauner could sign another out of balance budget, like his predecessors. But if that is what the public wanted, then Quinn likely would have won instead of Rauner.–

He could also propose a balanced budget, as required of his office by the Constitution. He’s come a cropper in his first two shots.

You must be aware by now that the governor has pre-conditions before engaging on a budget? It’s not a secret that it isn’t his first priority.

–Though I do feel one person in particular is obstructing compromise and progress, there is lots of blame to go around.–

Let me guess: the person who refuses to sign the compromise $700 million approp. for social services that passed both chambers by near unanimous, bipartisan votes?

Was that not compromise and progress?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 1:34 pm
Knell Income and Out go need to be aligned at last for a foreseeable future. The Arbitrage schemes of the past, the role back of income tax increase with out reduction in spending ad infinitum… The financial means are what you have and reasonably project to have. Not what you wish you had or hope might come.

Comment by NorthsideNoMore Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 4:44 pm