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* UPDATED x1 * A fall preview?

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* Remember this from my most recent weekly newspaper column?…

But Madigan’s side points to Rauner’s ever-tanking poll ratings as proof they can use him against Republican candidates, and they’ll toss in Trump wherever the presidential candidate is unpopular.

And while voters always say they want a balanced budget, they almost always recoil when told what that would actually entail. Details of the $7.5 billion in cuts that “the Trump/Rauner Republicans demanded” via the governor’s expected veto will make for some grisly campaign advertisements. The Senate Democrats did pretty much just that to the Republicans during the last presidential campaign cycle and picked up seats despite raising the income tax by 67 percent—which is a big reason why the governor has now twice refused to submit a truly balanced budget. Once the Republicans vote against overriding Rauner’s budget veto for the second year in a row, they’ll be on the record for huge cuts.

* So, if you want a probable preview of the fall campaign (perhaps without all the Urbana-friendly talk about revenues other than those on the rich), check out Democratic state Rep. Carol Ammons’ e-mail to constituents…

Dear Friend,

I know that you are frustrated and disheartened that we have passed another deadline without a state budget. I am too.

It is outrageous that Illinois has gone almost a full year without a state budget. Never before in our state’s history have we gone this long without a budget. We must take action to restore stability for those who rely on the state to meet our basic obligations.

For nearly a year, the governor has held the state hostage refusing to sign or even negotiate a state budget unless he gets his way on a special interest agenda that benefits big corporations and the wealthy at the expense of the middle class.

The governor has proposed closing the state’s $5 billion deficit exclusively through cuts to essential services for families, children, and the elderly. The governor’s budget would slash critical funding for basic services, including:

* life saving medical care for the elderly and persons with disabilities covered by Medicaid;
* critical health services for women, including life saving breast cancer screenings;
* services for developmentally disabled children;
* services for abused and neglected children;
* and mental health services for thousands of patients who otherwise turn to emergency rooms for care.

Nurses, doctors, hospitals, nursing homes, and patients strongly support our approach and oppose the governor’s extreme cuts-only budget which would hurt families, children, and the elderly while protecting the ultra rich.

Additionally, the governor’s budget would put public safety at risk as massive cuts to local government will force communities across the state to lay off police officers and firefighters, close stations, and cut back patrols.

Not only are we working to stop devastating cuts to social and public services but the University of Illinois is also being targeted. The Governor’s budget proposal would provide the U of I just 30% of the funding it needs for the next 18 months to the institution that educates over half of all public higher education students in the state of Illinois. The University contributes $14 billion to the state economy and employs 30,000 people statewide. The University needs stable and consistent funding and I will strongly defend against all attempts to erode the foundation of one of our most valuable state institutions.

I oppose the governor’s extreme, cuts-only approach.

I support balancing the budget while protecting essential services by balancing spending cuts with asking big corporations and the wealthy to pay their fair share. Specifically, closing corporate tax loopholes and increasing tax rates on households with income of over $1 million a year. In order to truly move Illinois to a better place financially, all revenue options have to be on the table. However, the Governor has refused to engage in that conversation until his turnaround agenda items are met. That is not the spirit of compromise that is needed to make progress on this impasse.

We understand the need to conclude our work as soon as possible, but I won’t turn my back on middle class families, I won’t be a partner in destroying the services they count on, and I won’t let our higher education system fail because of lack of funding. I’m prepared to be in the State Capitol for as long as necessary to finish our work and will continue to support measures that protect middle class families and the vulnerable.

Sincerely,
Carol

All emphasis is in the original.

*** UPDATE *** Rep. Chris Welch has sent almost exactly the same newsletter to his constituents. Click here to read it.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 9:50 am

Comments

–And while voters always say they want a balanced budget, they almost always recoil when told what that would actually entail. –

Same as it ever was.

Voters also say they like compromise and bipartisanship.

I suspect the Dems will also start clobbering the GOP over the fact that the governor refuses to sign the bipartisan, compromise, $600 million emergency approp. for social services.

Did the Superstars tell all those GOP members that voted for it that they were just giving the governor another hostage?

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 9:57 am
Just because the governor refuses to actually submit his cuts-only balanced budget, doesn’t mean the truth of what a cuts-only budget means can’t be tied around his neck.

Comment by PublicServant Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 9:58 am
With Rep. Franks and Sen. Sullivan leaving the State House, those can be GOP Pickups for Rauner to build on.

The Democrats need to blend in and interweave Social Service Groups, Advocates, and Clients… and add All of Labor in a Presidential Year to stave off more loses (if Madigan wants to, maybe not having a mathematical super-majority helps, but I digress… ) and actually have all three… Social Services and Co, All of Labor, and Base Democrats on the same page, or letter in this case IS a real preview of November.

It’s going to be solidifying on a “Referendum on Rauner”.

“Are you for Raunerites or Not?”

This letter sets a very obvious table… but will these three groups unify at it for all their common good?

This is how it begins.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:00 am
Good email. Seems well thought out. I agree with every single little bit of it.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:00 am
Given the general hostility folks have against not only the Governent but worse the “other side” who would possibly want to be a public official. Nothing can get done absent a clearing election which we have been waiting for since 2008. Obama and Democratic leaders are just as responsible as Republcans. In my lifetime I have never been as repulsed at what is happening to the Country and locally the State. It’s as if we are reliving 1860

Comment by Sue Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:01 am
Great comments Carol - I could not agree more.

And PLEASE keep reminding your colleagues about the importance of my Alma Mater. Do not let this national asset wither on the vine as is happening to so many other institutions and agencies.

Comment by illini Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:05 am
Sue-

I believe what is happening is by design. I’m sure I’m not the only one who believes this.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/is-governor-rauner-delibe_b_10188976.html

Comment by Trolling Troll Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:07 am
I thought the slogan was going to be: “More taxes, more prosperity.” No?

Comment by JB13 Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:07 am
Ammons is a partisan hack. She voted for Madigan’s $40B spending plan without funding. #MadiganPuppet

Comment by Georg Sande Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:08 am
- illini -

To that,

Any college town, even Urbana-Champaign, that thinks Rauner cares for your economic engine, that’s on “you” and you’re being fooled as Rauner enjoys these towns voting against their best interests.

Vote Accordingly. Lots of ways to do that. Lots.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:09 am
More silliness……I guess the Democrats want to raise the taxes to 8% to pay for this. It all sounds good until we try to figure out how to pay for it. I sure don’t want my taxes to go up to keep the “status quo”.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:09 am
- Sue - and - Gerorg Sande -

Between the “Obama” and typical “partisan” thoughts…

Any other counter you’d like to add?

…

That’s why this baseline letter, if “delivered” right in a Fall campaign… yikes.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:11 am
Great email and I’m glad this elected representative gets it. Rauner spent so much time and energy trying to fix this mess on the backs of thousands of middle class workers through drastic cuts and attacks on labor rights.

That’s a big, big problem–pushing cuts on middle class workers while the rich are not being compelled to pay more than anyone else. Especially the rich who parade around the message that Illinois is terrible while they collectively make billions of dollars a year here in Illinois.

Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:13 am
=== I sure don’t want my taxes to go up to keep the “status quo”.===

So, for those keeping score at home… - Sue - has “Obama”, - Georg Sande - has #MadiganPuppet and partisan, and ” - Anonymous - ” has… “Status Quo”

For points came out early this morning.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:14 am
“Schools? Where we’re going we won’t need schools.” - Doc Rauner

Comment by Anon Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:14 am
The last two governors also spent a lot of time cutting ribbons and making speeches at U of I, all the while owing it hundreds of millions of dollars. I heard some of those speeches. They were booed worse than a pro sports commissioner at an arena. Their dire financial straits started long before January of 2015.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:14 am
Can we get an unsustainable…going once…

Comment by PublicServant Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:15 am
“Dot points”

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:15 am
How bout a “fundamentally”?

Comment by PublicServant Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:16 am
Anonymous at 10:09

Since you don’t want to maintain the status quo- which of the services that are listed in the letter should be cut? Only list the ones you are willing to justify to a recipient in your own family or circle of friends.

Comment by Thoughts Matter Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:16 am
“And while voters always say they want a balanced budget, they almost always recoil when told what that would actually entail.”

Considering most voters don’t live within a balanced budget in their own lives, this makes sense.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:16 am
This letter sets a very obvious table… but will these three groups unify at it for all their common good?

My personal facebook is awash in diversity these days. I’ve got my AFSCME folks from before but now I’ve got fabulous trades folk, SEIU, academics, social services, musicians. Every race, ethnic, creed, you name it. It’s truly rich. Why do I tell you this? Because it is happening on a really natural level. I know facebook is just a social media site but I had really meaningful dialogue with a trades brother who lost him mom recently. My experience in hospice came in real handy. It’s happening at an increasing rate. Will we jell fast enough? To be seen. But I can tell you it’s happening.

Comment by Honeybear Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:18 am
Dear Carol,
The Governor has GONE ON RECORD SAYING HE WILL SIGN A BILL FOR ADDITIONAL REVENUES! Even YOUR speaker has said it will take a mix of cuts, reforms and revenue to get out of this mess.
Maybe stop flapping your gums so much and try and listen mmkay?

Comment by Big Muddy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:20 am
Guess since I’m not a big corporation and don’t make more than a million a year, I don’t have to pay higher taxes. Cool beans.

If I find out later this is not true, I’ll be rather upset…

Comment by My button is broke... Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:21 am
- Big Muddy -

More revenue, for the 6,275th time… is not a give.

Revenue is required. Rauner is t doing anyone a favor, giving on anything, or showing any negotiating.

It’s required. Revenue. Not a give.

With respect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:25 am
Hey, wonderful jobs report today, especially showing the unemployment rate going down. Very Quinn-like.

Dem math. Anybody out there think the UE number is 4.7%? Anybody???

These shenanigans are why Rauner got elected and why Trump will win in November.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:26 am
not to wreck the meme of unsustainable, but prior to Rauner the State had a surplus, more money comin in then the cost of current operations. the surplus was then being applied to past debt and paying it down. in otherwords pre-rauner we were solvent and would have excess cash to pay towards pensions agter the debt from the economic collapse was paid off….. But rauner rolled back taxes and the debt started piling up. the problem was not the actual cost of services, just the tax roll back. period. we had sustainable spending and resources before Rauner

Comment by Ghost Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:26 am
Willy @10:09 - We have seen that far,far too often. This is the reality of the Rauner agenda and the $20 million he has at his disposal to award or threaten members of the GA as he chooses.

Comment by illini Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:27 am
== Great email and I’m glad this elected representative gets it ==

Unfortunately my state rep does not get it. He looks like a deer in headlights. How many more are in the same boat? Too many good people want no part of this train wreck, which only compounds said train wreck.

Comment by Higland IL Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:27 am
Highland - exactly right about our state rep. He is a great guy to have a beer with but he has been bought. And, to compound the problem, he is running unopposed in the General!!!!

Comment by illini Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:33 am
===But rauner rolled back taxes===

Um, no, he didn’t. He requested it, but the Dems let that roll back before he was sworn in.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:35 am
Rep. Carol Ammons forgot to add Rauner’s other cuts (such as teachers, care givers & state workers’ jobs, pay, healthcare & pensions).

Comment by Mama Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:38 am
The Dems would not have rolled the taxes back if Rauner would not have asked them to roll it back.

Comment by Mama Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:40 am
===The Dems would not have rolled the taxes back if Rauner would not have asked them to roll it back.===

Yes, they would have and were going to.

The rookie mistake was Rauner asking that they do. Putting himself as part of the rollback takes away a point Rauner could’ve used right about now.

Heck, the rookie mistake has you thinking Rauner “did it”

Rauner trusts very little, so he made sure his voice was heard.

Mistake.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:43 am
Still don’t understand why the Senate Democrats didn’t support the Madigan budget. If the D’s were aligned on this issue, they could have rammed it through by Memorial day.

Comment by Downstate Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:46 am
=The Dems would not have rolled the taxes back if Rauner would not have asked them to roll it back.=

Of course they would. The hike barely passed and making it permanent would have been another tax hike hung around their necks politically.

Also, if they did something because this Governor asked them to, that would be a first.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:48 am
===Still don’t understand why the Senate Democrats didn’t support the Madigan budget. If the D’s were aligned on this issue, they could have rammed it through by Memorial day.===

1) It was $7 billion out of whack ridiculous.

2) Rauner, had it passed, would’ve gone on a tour, the next day playing victim to a $7 billion budget, he will veto, and be the “hero”, hoping he’s not going to be overridden (it barely got 60, so a victim to foreseen math)

3) Cullerton, like Pate, lets his Caucus dictate many times on issues.

Result?

Rauner still went on a tour the next day, playing victim to… nothing… nothing but questions… and the Cullerton stopgap hijacked by Rauner is still embraced by some because Illinois needs a budget.

So now it’s 71 and 36, Rauner got his Victim Tour, but now 40 more Denicrats are needed as Ads, funded by monies from Rauner to the HRO start to run against a Caucus Rauber needs 24 votes from to pass things.

All and all, the Senate did no favors for the Raunerites.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:53 am
To the post: Articulated well where we Illinoisans stand as a people.

Comment by IRLJ Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:57 am
“The Governor has GONE ON RECORD SAYING HE WILL SIGN A BILL FOR ADDITIONAL REVENUES!”

STILL WAITING for his specific proposals on revenue increases and for him to close his pie hole about Democrats WANTING a tax increase.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 10:58 am
Willy is right ( once again ) - BVR will always be the VICTIM and will never take any personal responsibility.

Yet, because of his position and the “bully pulpit” he preaches from, local media always quote his remarks without question and help to make him seem like the only adult in the room.

I think many readers of this site are much more cognizant of the reality vs the rhetoric.

Comment by illini Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 11:11 am
=== Ammons is a partisan hack. ===

Meh. I get her mailings, since I contacted her on another issue. Heard right back from her, too, even though I’m not in her district. She keeps in close touch with her constituents, and she stands up for higher ed (unlike some partisan hacks I could name in other downstate college towns). That’s all I need to know.

Comment by olddog Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 11:18 am
The advice given to the House GOP in comments this week is just as relevant here.

This is not helping. Focus on getting a budget and reform deal done. Rank and file have momentum right now. The campaigns can wait for a bit. And you do not want to face voters this November without a balanced budget, some moderate reforms, and schools open.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 11:27 am
==But rauner rolled back taxes==

smh. The tax increase rolled back on January 1, 2015 as it was written, passed and signed to do by Quinn, Madigan and Cullerton before Rauner was around.

The income tax rate also remains 25% higher now than it was in 2010.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 11:33 am
- FKA -

==But rauner rolled back taxes==

The Rookie Mistake doesn’t all your rightful pivot because by inserting himself in wanting the rollback to happen, Rauner loses the point you make because Rauner just HAD to make it clear he wanted it to roll back.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 11:38 am
- FKA -

With respect, this letter(s) is to constituents, their constituents, not an attack piece against incumbents by the Caucus’ political apparatus.

… Or on the Tee-Vee

With respect

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 11:41 am
I hear mostly how people are mad about the level of dysfunction in state government. This crosses party lines. True, there are specific comments on cuts and taxes that track more with party affiliation, but they are a distant second.

Holding a budget hostage (Rauner), not passing a constitutional pension reform (Madigan), fiscal management that leads to $10bn bill backlogs (R+D), not tracking our tax system with changes in the economy - these drive people up the wall as they truly are inexcusable. Trying to explain why these did not get done because of some tax or cut policy preference is a weak platform. Rauner and the Rs will be in big trouble in Nov because of the budget.

It is one of the great mysteries to me why Rauner did not take the wide open lane in Jan 2015 of more functional (especially fiscal) government.
There was plenty of space for incremental changes that would have been substantial in effect.

Comment by peon Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 12:59 pm
The only thing that might have caused the tax increase not to roll back as scheduled, was a Quinn victory over Rauner.

Governor-elect Rauner’s saying anything about it was simply a way for him to take some credit for a certain thing. Probably better for him if he had remained silent.

Comment by walker Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 1:11 pm
=It is one of the great mysteries to me why Rauner did not take the wide open lane in Jan 2015 of more functional (especially fiscal) government=

Because that’s not what he wanted or why he ran. He has a singular focus and this ain’t it.

Comment by pundent Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 1:18 pm
==I sure don’t want my taxes to go up to keep the “status quo”. ==

Then I guess you don’t want good Illinois state universities and community colleges and social services and roads, and K-12 schools, etc. etc.? Because without a full budget and tax increase, those areas are really going to take a huge hit.

Comment by Joe M Friday, Jun 3, 16 @ 4:25 pm