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* If you watched the coverage of Senate President Cullerton’s press conference, you know that Cullerton claimed Gov. Rauner’s highly negative press conference “distracted” working group members who were negotiating the budget while Rauner was talking to reporters…
Rep Will Davis was in working group and says Rauner's noon presser wasn't that distracting, but sides still aren't that close to budget deal
— Tony Arnold (@tonyjarnold) June 8, 2016
And Rep Greg Harris says working group did discuss what Rauner was saying at presser that happened while they were meeting, thus distracted
— Tony Arnold (@tonyjarnold) June 8, 2016
…Adding… From Rep. Greg Harris’ Facebook page…
Sigh. Sitting in budget negotiations with my House and Senate colleagues, both Republican and Democrat, trying to find good bipartisan solutions while the Governor holds a press conference down the hall trashing us.
* The Question: Are you at all confident that legislators and the governor can work out any sort of budget deal, temporary or permanent, partial or full, this year? Explain.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:14 pm
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I vote no, they don’t want to, cap fax commentators could put together a better compromise, there’s no leadership for what’s enough of a tax hike and what’s enough reform.
Comment by Master Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:16 pm
I’m hopeful and somewhat confident. This group seems dedicated. They’ve become accustomed to all of the white noise overhead. As their names are released from time to time, you can see that the serious people are working on it. It won’t be a great deal. It can’t be. But something will come of it to bridge us from the depths of this crisis to a hopefully shallower new crisis.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:20 pm
The only way I see it happening is if they self impose a gag order on pressers until the bill is on the floor of the second chamber. And even then, they might need to make the gag order last until the Gov. does something with the bill if they reach a deal.
This whole process has become nothing more than dueling pressers with all parties looking to get the latest shot off against the other side.
Comment by Give Me A Break Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:22 pm
It’s the pesky AND that joins the two branches. Take Rauner and his dollar threats out of the equation, and yes I do think smarter and cooler heads in the Legislature could have already worked something out. Rauner is just all too happy to put them all against each other. He doesn’t need to watch “Dad’s Home State”, he’s too busy crafting his own (un)realty show.
Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:23 pm
No.
Rauner will scuttle every budget deal between now and the election. So long as he can keep holding pressers and saying, “Madigan!” and “Cullerton!” — he’ll keep his base happy.
Remember, his *base* is all that counts. It’s not the state, not the citizens of the state — it’s his base. That’s it.
And the base, I suspect, loves this. They love being painted as a victim — victimized by Madigan! victimized by Cullerton! for so many, many, many years.
It’s the GOP’s politics of punishment. “I’m a victim. I’ve been a victim for years. Punish people. Anyone. Just make sure people hurt.”
Comment by Formerly Known as Frenchie M Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:24 pm
Not at all. Albeit there are likely some legislators who want a deal done soon, I just don’t think that the pressure that members are feeling right now outweighs the pressure that they are receiving from their leaders to toe the line. Hopefully I’m wrong.
Comment by The Muse Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:24 pm
Very low level of confidence, bec working groups dont have meaningful guidance from leadership. Meaningful means leadership says yes or no, or how far to go, on the important elements. It takes dems to say we will do x, y, z, and repubs to say we will do a, b, c.
Comment by Langhorne Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:26 pm
I am somewhat confidant that they’ll figure out a way to delay any really tough votes until after the election.
They have to do something to make sure the schools can open. Most likely it’ll involve some sort of temporary measure, perhaps with a symbolic reform tossed in, to tide everyone over until after the election.
No really tough votes will occur before the election. If Rauner could agree to a six month budget based on FY15 numbers, plus some back-fill funding for FY16 human services, that’s go a long way to building trust while also buying time for the Dems to return the favor on a small number of reforms.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:26 pm
No. Based on his words and actions of the past few days, Rauner’s interested in campaigning on the failure and not fixing it.
The only scenario I can picture is the House Republicans realizing they can do good and get some changes they’d really like to see in this state. That’s not going to happen because the do what Rauner tells them.
Comment by Earnest Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:27 pm
= a hopefully shallower new crisis.
=
Sadly, that may be the best possible outcome from these negotiations.
Comment by cover Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:28 pm
Master,
To your perfectly sensible comment, let me just add quotation marks around the word “reform.” None of the T.A. represents meaningful economic reform.
And that’s the heart of problem. Despite the facts that unions are in an historical decline and that the Republican Party in Illinois has never put union busting front and center, now all of a sudden killing off unions has become the sine qua non of economic well being? How do you compromise with that kind of random, self-serving craziness?
Comment by HistoryProf Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:29 pm
Yes, still possible.
But, it’s going to have to take some type of unplanned external event (financial downturn, etc.) which would force all sides into a situation where all sides realize not only will there be no winners, but likely few, if any survivors.
We’ll see……
Comment by Anon Downstate Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:29 pm
==cap fax commentators could put together a better compromise==
Good idea. I’m only half kidding. If an informed online community could do what our “leaders” have failed to do, there should be more than enough embarrassment to go around.
Comment by Fusion Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:32 pm
About 50-50, flip a coin.
Comment by DuPage Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:37 pm
===- Langhorne - Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:26 pm:
Very low level of confidence, bec working groups dont have meaningful guidance from leadership. Meaningful means leadership says yes or no, or how far to go, on the important elements. It takes dems to say we will do x, y, z, and repubs to say we will do a, b, c. ===
How do you know they aren’t getting meaningful guidance?
Comment by regerts Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:39 pm
No. I don’t believe that Rauner wants a budget deal. Why, because his words and actions have been that crisis creates leverage. And everyone from Edgar, Cullerton and Emanuel has said that you don’t get a deal by touring the state calling your counterparts corrupt. A deal at this point would mean a revolt by GOP GA members and I don’t see that happening.
Comment by pundent Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:40 pm
No confident at all. I keep hearing the term moving the goal posts when talking about the administration. But more importantly, this is all a show. They don’t want to come to a deal just yet. We’re not close to schools not opening. Not yet anywas. That’s the powder keg. Still have a month and a half before that happens. And I’ll bet at some point the legislature does come back and votes on a package to send the governor for six months. It includes higher ed, human services and education. This comes after he veto’s the two bills on his desk dealing with higher ed and human services. And he rejects its (Those dog’on goal posts again). We’ll see but thats where I’m at with it.
Comment by Corporate Thug Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:41 pm
No because I have no faith that Rauner actual wants to have a budget. I think he could care less. He want’s the destruction of labor. Once he gets that I think he’ll go on autopilot.
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:41 pm
47th’s comments are nearly in line with my thoughts, but for one caveat: something will be done to make sure the schools are open…but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will open on time everywhere.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:42 pm
Until the day Gov Rauner discovers there is a difference between “governing” and “owning a business” there will not be any success for him.
Until the day Gov Rauner discovers that the Budget process is separate from reforms then there will not be any success for him.
This could be fun.. Any else care to try?
Until the Gov Rauner discovers…
Comment by Radar Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:44 pm
After the election.
Comment by Saluki Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:45 pm
47 th Ward do you really think legislators are doing Rauner a “favor” by passing a small number of reforms?
What about the citizens of Illinois who are suffering under the highest unemployment in the country? They are crying out for major change in this state while entrenched politicians slow walk reforms and nibble around the edges.. The fact we talk about the politicians as winners and losers when it is actually the State’s residents who need a win
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:45 pm
I want to vote for “yes,” but I have to vote “no.” Color me cynical. I fear that the working groups may be a bit of pre-election positioning, a means for some of the members of the General Assembly to be able to later say “Look! we tried!” or “Look! I tried!” to their own local constituents. “I am not beholden to Madigan! I was on that ‘working group!’ ” “I am not in Rauner’s $20 million club! I was a member of that ‘working group!’” -Am I too cynical?
Comment by Justin Observer Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:46 pm
@Lucky Pierre - The sad fact is that everyone in the state whether it be media, politicians, state workers, teachers, etc.. all agree that there needs to be reforms. Unfortunately, Gov Rauner doesn’t understand that the first responsibility is to pass a budget. Reforms can be worked on afterwards and there are plenty of people on both sides of the aisle that agree to some form of change.
Comment by Radar Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:50 pm
===What about the citizens of Illinois who are suffering under the highest unemployment in the country?===
Lol. What makes you think any of Rauner’s “reforms” will change anything? He hasn’t been terribly convincing in his pitch either.
The surest way to create jobs would be to pass and fund a budget. Then all of the laid-off social service workers could go back to their jobs. For some reason, Rauner doesn’t seem to care about that sort of unemployment.
Why do you think that is, LP?
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:50 pm
Radar, if everyone agreed we need reforms (they don’t see 47th ward and most long time politicos who defend the status quo). Over the past 18 months the majority of the GA will not acknowledge that we need to reform anything to be competitive for business. They have no counter proposals to Rauner. Even Mark Brown and Eric Zorn can’t defend them.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:57 pm
Alas, I don’t foresee it happening until much greater havoc and harm takes place (such as the schools not opening and universities crashing - the AG getting a court order to stop employee paychecks and the various state offices cease operating). Then, maybe.
Comment by titan Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 3:57 pm
Lucky Pierre, is not paying for work done under contract good or bad for business? Just asking, for a friend.
Comment by Pawn Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:01 pm
No. Rauner’s euphoric attacks on the Democrats since the end of May show this stalemate is exactly what he wants. I’m not saying that a bipartisan agreement can’t be reached, but that’s not in Rauner’s interest or plan.
Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:03 pm
LP, how exactly will any of Rauner’s reforms reduce the state’s unemployment rate? Can you show me the number of projected jobs based on the several Turnaround Agenda reforms?
How many jobs will be created by ending prevailing wage?
How many jobs will be created by capping property taxes? By ending “venue shopping” by plaintiffs injured by negligence? By making drastic changes to collective bargaining?
How many? Surely you must know, you sound so convinced. Has the Governor shared with you his secret charts and graphs? Is there a think tank study that’s looked at this and come up with a figure for how low Illinois’ unemployment rate would be if only we implemented Rauner’s reforms?
Anything?
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:03 pm
I want to believe that they will find even a short term fix even for schools, but I am seriously discouraged. No one wants to give the other a “win” of any kind. The rhetoric swirling around the talks may not be distracting the committees, but it is certainly distracting the leaders. Sigh.
Comment by Fool On The Hill Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:04 pm
Nope. The rhetoric is racheting up. As soon as that tones down, then we’ll have something to look forward to. It would surprise me to see anything substantial before November.
Comment by Dome Gnome Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:10 pm
The roles have reversed. First, “we may have to shut it down awhile.” Now, it’s “the government should never shut down.” It appears a bluff has been called. Nothing for quite awhile and nothing in return. Checkmate.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:11 pm
I am confident the legislators can work out a deal on the budget and more.
I am not confident the leadership on either side can bring themselves to back it.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:21 pm
No. Judging the way Rauner sabotages a budget deal at every turn, it’s obvious that he isn’t interested in a deal, but maintaining HIS status quo of squeezing the beast.
Comment by South Illinoisian Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:26 pm
The roles have reversed on schools as well.
First, =We cannot have the state shut down. People maybe in the Chicago area don’t realize how important it is what the state does… We also have to make sure that the schools open. The schools literally could not open. Over a third of the money that comes to schools comes from Springfield. And so what’s at stake is critical.=
Now, it’s =I don’t think any schools should be funded until Chicago schools are funded fairly.=
Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:26 pm
No.
Rauner and Madigan would have to (1) agree with the committee’s recommendation, (2) agree on a split of D/R votes in favor, and (3) find enough votes.
Comment by Robert the Bruce Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:26 pm
47th Ward do you acknowledge we need change he’s to our State to turn things around? You seem to think all we need to stop our citizens fro leaving our state is a tax increase.
Rauner has not proposed mandating local control over prevailing wage. Don’t worry, that won’t get passé in your Ward but could in some suffering downstate community.
One of the biggest reasons people and business are leaving our state is high property taxes.. Local control of collective bargaining and prevailing wage would allow for property taxes to stabilize. Don’t worry that won’t apply to you either.
If you was to know why businesses are leaving, just ask them and they will probably say high property taxes, workers comp and our legal environment all contribute. Or we could just keep doing everything the same and expect different results which is what you are advocating.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:29 pm
Unfortunately, no…not until after the election to agree with other posters. The election IS the ballgame, for which I still think the Gov might just turn around and leave when he looses big…this from a life long republican mind you.
Comment by Captain Illini Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:30 pm
@Lucky Pierre-
Please be specific since you are banging the drum so hard, what reforms and what evidence can you present that these “reforms” will have a positive impact on Illinois.
Specifically, please link the governors desire for additional unemployment and lower income levels and how that will positively impact Illinois economically. Do you have a comparative model?
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:35 pm
Not until Rauner gets very close to what he wants. He is otherwise not motivated. He is not motivated by polls or re-election. In three years, if he loses re-election or does not run, he can go back to being a successful billionaire businessman. In his eyes if he fails to achieve his goals he will believe he gave it his best shot.
Comment by Groucho Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:36 pm
===You seem to think all we need to stop our citizens fro leaving our state is a tax increase.===
I’ve been commenting here for a long time. When have I ever said such a thing? That’s a strawman.
There are plenty of things Illinois can do to improve its business climate. Paying its bills would be a good place to start.
The HDems had votes on a property tax freeze at least 3 times this year. Why didn’t Rauner and the Republicans jump on board?
Don’t tell me what I’m advocating. Defend what you write and I’ll do the same. In this instance, you can’t.
Rauner hasn’t made a case for why his reforms will help Illinois and neither have you. Come back when you have some data and a decent argument.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:37 pm
LP, you have the faith of a child in Father Bruce’s Church of the Turnaround. I’m sure the mindless chanting of “reform” is very comforting in these trying times.
But in business, you have to sell it with actual assumptions and projections, and show your work. That’s how the big kids do it, every day.
Don’t you find it strange that GOMB in a matter of days could project statistically insignificant economic and fiscal changes going out 14 years for a graduated income tax, but can’t provide a shred of data, — good, bad or indifferent — for the governor’s signature agenda in the last 18 months?
We’re not running a cult here. Sell it.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:42 pm
How can property taxes be frozen or reduced without local control? Could the bill the Democrats passed be for campaign purposes and not to solve the problem? Was ‘t that the point of calling it 19 times? They are not serious about solving this problem but they will most certainly flood our mailboxes telling us how they want to lower property taxes.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:49 pm
I think one of the main underlying problems is that Rauner is a loose cannon and completely untrustworthy. How did anyone ever do business with him?
Comment by oldman Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:53 pm
Confidence level 1.5 on a scale of 5. The great equalizer is Edu funding. If the Guv gets prop tax freeze which he could claim as major win while the GA gets revenue stream(s) to fund Education at foundation levels with prop tax freeze confidence level 3. If there was a capital bill with funding there might be a chance to go to Level 4. Win/Win for all.
Comment by NorthsideNoMore Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:56 pm
Rauner sees the lack of a budget as more of a cudgel to press the issue of his so called “reforms”, than he sees it as a liability. I don’t think he cares if people suffer, as long as he sees the whole issue somehow serving his own goals.
Comment by Mike from Blue Grass Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:57 pm
==cap fax commentators could put together a better compromise==
Oh my. I think the chances are better in the House Dem Caucus! /s (trying to lighten it up a bit)
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 4:57 pm
==The HDems had votes on a property tax freeze at least 3 times this year. Why didn’t Rauner and the Republicans jump on board?==
47, that’s the ultimate straw man argument. You really are better than this..
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 5:01 pm
===that’s the ultimate straw man argument.===
How so?
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 5:03 pm
Let me keep it very simple for the no reform caucus. Rauner is not trying to compete with Indiana on workers comp with a race to the bottoms but he has said many times if we were just average instead of one of the highest our unemployment would improve. True blue Massachusetts has reformed workers comp to help business and has also restricted collective bargaining for state workers. Same goes for legal issues etc. This is only hard to understand for the just say no caucus.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 5:23 pm
The local property tax freeze is a red herring.
Since this was first proposed, just about every taxing authority sought out the highest possible increase for the last several years to provide themselves with a cash cushion.
The next move is the state will further reduce their revenue sharing with the local taxing bodies, creating additional hardships on taxpayers who depend on local services.
Then it’s not the state’s problem, it’s a local problem without a way to raise revenues.
Comment by Chicago 20 Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 6:42 pm
Nothing will happen until something big falls that affects people on a day to day basis or the Supremes have to decide something that forces a compromise. All that’s fallen apart in this mess is a problem but so many pay no attention to it that it won’t affect people until something like schools don’t open or roads don’t get plowed will people realize how bad the situation is.
Comment by OurMagician Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 7:48 pm
I believe they will fix FY16 by June 30. Not fully funded but paying service providers and universities 80 cents on the dollar. That will forestall disaster while they dither on FY17. That one will wait until after the election.
Comment by Johnny's in the Basement Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 9:13 pm
Nothing will happen. Both Rauner and Madigan, I believe, realize that increased revenues are needed but increasing taxes on an already stretched average tax payer may have serious repercussions. The “tax the rich” process will result to some extent in a pass through to individuals, so while it makes a good sound bite, I doubt either want to explore it with any seriousness. And even if Gov. Rauner and Speaker Madigan had a magical reconciliation, I doubt their reps and senators would buy in to any meaningful tax scheme after they heard back from voters.
So neither will move.
I go with a few prior posts that something external must occur. This will give everyone cover. BlackRock, one of the largest municipal market participants, is suggesting the market should act against Illinois. If so-called “bond vigilantes” decide not to participate in the Illinois’ state and local offerings, this could cause enough disruption to perhaps engender movement.
Comment by Cook County Commoner Wednesday, Jun 8, 16 @ 9:41 pm
I could see a small pkg that opens schools and not much else. Rauner doesn’t want a compromise. He wants to win. He needs to change the perception that we citizens have that he truly does not care who suffers as long as he wins.
Gman
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jun 9, 16 @ 11:12 am