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No Durbin opponents stepping up

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Illinois

The 2008 Senate election may seem far away, but the battered Illinois Republican Party already is running late if it plans to challenge Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin.

No Republicans have stepped forward to say they will run against Durbin, and no one seems to be on the sidelines preparing to jump in.

“This is really becoming a problem for us,” said Illinois Senate Minority Leader Frank Watson, R-Greenville.

Although the election is 22 months away, that’s not a particularly long time in politics; the deadline to qualify for the ballot is less than a year away.

Peter Fitzgerald is quoted in this piece saying Dick Durbin will be “hard to beat.” And a spokesman for Bill Brady said he’s looking at another run for governor.

posted by Rich Miller
Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 5:10 am

Comments

This is because there is nobody in charge in the Illinois Republican party. The titular leaders can continue to enjoy whatever perks continue to accrue to party leaders (financial contributions from the gullible, flattery from Democrats who want something, junkets, media attention as “spokesmen for the Repubs” and so on) but they don’t have to do anything.

The Dems are probably wishing the Repubs would find a savior too because the alternative is heavy duty fighting among themselves.

Until they start showing proof of life, I can’t imagine why anybody would give the Repubs a dime.

Comment by Cassandra Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 8:49 am
Maybe Jim Edgar should be asked to run?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 10:57 am
Hey we always have Jim Oberwies! Like what they a say maybe the fourth or fifth time is the charm.

Comment by ANON Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 12:06 pm
Don’t forget that the Green Party may now also choose someone to run against Durbin, and Green candidates don’t tend to announce this early.

Comment by Squideshi Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 12:16 pm
Maybe Frank should run if he is so worried about it?

Comment by St. Nick Name Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 12:58 pm
Green Party, Dems, and a Conservative Republican… I think the Conservative could win.

Comment by Frank Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 1:42 pm
It’s gonna be a blow-out regardless, so the GOP should just run Topinka again. Who doesn’t miss “what’s she thinking”?

Comment by whatever Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 2:02 pm
fringe parties (read: green) never have impact on senatorial elections. when candidates are offered, they occur in states with a more mature party apparatus, and generally designed to provide name recognition to a future candidacy. it would be absurd for durbin to take a green party candidate seriously…

Comment by bored now Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 2:23 pm
Did Keyes ever get the deposit back on his apartment?

Comment by Boone Logan Square Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 2:30 pm
The relatively few people who actually voted Green during the 2006 gubernatorial election only did so because they threw their hands up with the two major party candidates. Durbin’s presence in the race ensures there will be at least one somewhat okay person in the race, so the Greens will be back down to two percent. Sorry, Green Party backers, but you guys peaked in 2006 and will only get that high again if the two parties throw up poor candidates again.

Comment by Drew Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 2:53 pm
You’re underestimating the Green Party. First you said that we would never get onto the ballot. We did. Then you said that we would never get at least five percent. We did. Now you’re saying that we can’t do it again. We will. Keep underestimating us–that works to our advantage.

Comment by Squideshi Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 3:09 pm
Squid, the one fact you’re overlooking is that, according to the election results I’ve seen, the Greens didn’t manage to pick up 5 percent in any other statewide race except governor. They came close in the treasurer’s race (they may have even got there, but I haven’t done the final percent tally), but that also included at least one controversial candidate with a dark cloud over his head.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 3:16 pm
I hit “Say it” too soon. I meant to close with…

In other words, barring yet another unacceptable, scandal-ridden Democratic statewide candidate in ‘08 and an unacceptable Republican alternative tagged with the George Ryan label, I think the burden of proof falls onto the Greens on whether they can retain their major party status. It’s possible, but it won’t be easy. You’re probably gonna have to run an actual race next time, not just piggy-back on widespread public disgust.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 3:31 pm
despite my usual disdain for labels, here goes:

I think we’re going to see Red Democrats and Blue Democrats in the state from now on, with pockets of Republicans in their traditional areas. Blue Democrats will mainly come from the minority city and south suburbs, and some of the north shore liberal areas. Red Democrats will come from So IL, emerging areas like DuPage and Will County and blue collar areas of Chicago and near suburbs.

I suspect the Blue dems will neutralize the Greens in most places they would be found. The Red dems might neutralize the Repubs in a few of their traditional areas, too (Melissa Bean, Jack Franks, Larry Walsh, etc.)

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 3:35 pm
Also, Squid, there were some of us who thought that the Greens would get onto the ballot (considering their organizing effort) and would break the 5 percent mark. So, not everyone underestimated your party the last time out.

Comment by Rich Miller Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 3:37 pm
JACK! He’s got the money, statewide name recognition, and everything is out about the guy so no late surprises…I mean somebody’s just got to wing it and see how it turns out.

Comment by Scoot Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 3:40 pm
I will add that it will shut the conservatives up…who do nothing but complain every election about the GOP moderates.

Comment by Scoot Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 3:42 pm
What’s Jim Durkin doing these days? It was my impression that even when they had him to run against Durbin the last time, he didn’t get a whole lot of support of the GOP.

Comment by Shadoobie Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 3:54 pm
i figured they could get on the ballot — and said so — given the low requirements needed to do so. i never thought they’d do much better than 5%, but cie la vie. i’ve seen the “organizing” power of the greens and remain unimpressed. every other state’s green party was better organized, better funded, and maintained a clear purpose. the illinois green party could learn a lot from its counterparts elsewhere…

Comment by bored now Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 4:12 pm
I wasn’t for Jack before, but he could win the nomination… again.

Comment by Outsider Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 5:14 pm
The Greens would have a very difficult time convincing liberals to vote against Durbin, if they bother to run a candidate. It would become a national joke, like the Green who ran against Paul Wellstone.

Durbin is popular, in large part because he does represent the political values of most Illinois voters, regardless of how often conservatives claim otherwise.

Comment by Will Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 5:32 pm
The Republican party needs to get back to their core values and stop relying on the upcoming implosion of the Democrats. Blogojevich and his unqualified appointees have their own problems that will soon come home to roost, but the Republicans should stop waiting for that to happen. I believe that most of the people in Illinois and the rest of the country have conservative values. Bill Brady could be a great candidate if he sticks to these values and if he tries to guide the party to the “center”. Predictions: Blagojevich and his minions will pay the price for breaking laws and their arrogance and the Democratic Congress will not be able to get along and they will soon display their liberal ideas (more taxes and give-away programs). Republicans need leadership and Brady is a good candidate to fill that void.

Comment by Holdingontomywallet Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 5:35 pm
Re: “The Dems are probably wishing the Repubs would find a savior too because the alternative is heavy duty fighting among themselves.”

That’s just fine if the Dems divide up a bit amongst themselves. That still creates a sort of check-and-balance, sad as it sounds, within our state government. I must say that I still think this is somewhat healthy. Much healthier than having the Dems shift really far leftward in ideology and having all of them in total and complete agreement with each other, don’t you think?

A little independent thinking within the ranks never hurts, in my opinion.

As for the Illinois GOP? They need fresh blood. Young people, or something. But where does the Illinois GOP go to find ‘em? In the liberal colleges? Hah hah hah. Like that’s ever going to happen.

They need moderate (read: electable) types to get the younger generation excited about getting involved in politics, and there’s really no way to even organize a plan to plot strategy when the party itself is pretty much kaput.

Let’s just try and talk some sense into the Dems on some of the issues, or the way to go about implementing needed changes on the issues that affect us all. Try to persuade, I suppose, because that’s all there is as an option right now.

I’d like to see Jim Edgar run, though, but I doubt he will.

Comment by Angie Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 5:46 pm
Well stated, Rich. I, too, thought the Greens would break the five percent mark well ahead of the November election. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see their U.S. Senate nominee on the ballot in 2008. Nonetheless, as you articulated, the conditions will not be the same as they were with Blagojevich and Topinka. We already know that Durbin will be a serious candidate from the Democrats. The G.O.P. may or may not wind up putting up a strong candidate of their own. With that in mind, the Greens will actually have to win votes rather than be the recipient of votes thrown away by disgruntled voters. Very few people would have actually voted Green had they thought they had a legitimate shot at winning.

Comment by Drew Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 6:11 pm
As the suburbs (and northern Illinois, in general) continue to change in the overall demographics, the GOP will have to run moderates from the suburbs who can relate to the voting base in the collar counties, suburban Cook County, Rockford and anything else north of I-88. However, with Mark Kirk turning down the chance and the entire Republican ticket losing the 2006 consitutional slate, our bench is bare. Just give it to Durbin now and save us from all of the baloney.

Comment by Anonymous Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 6:26 pm
Rich, which GOP State Senators will be in the middle of their four-year term in 2008? I suspect one of them will be told to draw the short straw and be the Republican’s sacrificial lamb… I mean Senate candidate.

Comment by fedup dem Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 7:36 pm
I’m brand-new in these parts, so I don’t know the in’s and out’s. But the opposite situation plagued the Indiana Democratic Party in the ‘06 cycle. Party Chair Dan Parker made a courageous decision to not contest Sen. Richard Lugar (R). Instead, the Hoosier D’s threw everything they had into winning three toss-up congressional seats (won all three) and into winning control of the Indiana House of Reps (and did so). I wonder if the Illinois GOP would look to the east and make the same kind of pragmatic decision.

Comment by Hoosier New to Illinois Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 7:51 pm
To clarify … the three seats the Hoosier D’s won in the U.S. House were all held by the R’s, so it was a big part of the swing to the D majority. And to give credit where credit is undoubtedly due, didn’t Illinois’ Rep. Rahm Emmanuel also have a lot to do with supporting those three victors?

Comment by Hoosier New to Illinois Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 7:59 pm
Angie, I can tell you that young/college republicans do exist and exist in mass at colleges all across the state of Illinois. I would even say that the IL CRs and YRs have their act more together than the ILGOP does.

IL CRs and YRs are not fond of corruption (in and out of the ILGOP), they are working towards restoring the future… in fact, a group of students at the University of Illinois at Springfield is currently planning a Unity Conference to try to get the conservative/moderates throughout the state unified with a platform each can stand on proudly.

Yeah, it’s going to take a bit of compromising, tossing out some corrupt people, and re-establishing the party as the party of low taxes, anti-terrorism, no corruption, and family values (and not extreme family values).

I see the future of Illinois through IL CRs and YRs, and the future looks bright!

Comment by Jeff Sunday, Jan 7, 07 @ 10:12 pm
Jeff, that is awesome. I’m a non-trad who returned to finish a degree, so I’m not around the big freshman seminars that the incoming 18 and 19 year-olds take while at my university, but I read our campus paper, and there are some nice moderate views coming from the GOPers who are interviewed for various pieces. If everyone works together on the huge # of issues that moderates and more conservative types actually agree on, that would be fantastic.

That’s funny, though, that the students have it together as the old guard IL GOP is kaput. Maybe that’s best. Out with the old, and in with the new.

Love the idea of a Unity conference, by the way. Sounds good.

Thanks for the optimistic views, Jeff. Made my day.

Comment by Angie Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 1:02 am
Don’t count out the Greens. Watch how Durbin straddles a surge in Iraq. Things may look very different for a Green candidate in about two weeks.

Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 6:26 am
they should run Gidwitz. he should define himself as a “Bloomberg/Giuliani” style republican

Comment by corvax Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 8:03 am
Dick Durbin is VERY BEATABLE. The problem is the GOP does not get behind their candidates and push them aggressively–they nominated Jim Durkin last time around then just abandoned him. From all I’ve seen of Durbin, he’s not very bright, he says a lot of stupid things and is wrong about a lot of issues. Durbin is beatable, just nominate a strong conservative and make sure his campaign is adequately funded to make it a competitive race.

Comment by Crimefighter Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 9:47 am
Angry Frank shouldn’t worry. The Illiois GOP has 49 other states to draw a Republican candidate from. Unless, they cross out Maryland and then that only leaves 48.

Comment by Southern Ilinois Democrat Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 10:22 am
Crimefighter, Why do I get the impression you don’t like Durbin?

Why don’t you just tell us how you really feel about our state’s Senior Senator (who is, by the way, the #2 guy in the Senate)?

Maybe when you say he’s not very bright, he says a lot of stupid things and is wrong about a lot of issues … well, maybe it takes one to know one, eh?

Comment by NW burbs Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 11:28 am
Rich, the election results of any of the other statewide Green candidates really don’t matter, because Rich Whitney was the only one that ran a real campaign. The others were just on the ballot primarily as placeholders–the party by law was required to run a full slate of candidates in order to be able to run someone for Governor. Several of the other statewide candidates didn’t even make a single campaign appearance or statement; and in fact, one even moved out of the state!

Comment by Squideshi Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 11:46 am
they should run Gidwitz. he should define himself as a â€œBloomberg/Giulianiâ€ style republican

Not at all a bad idea.

Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 11:47 am
Ironic that one of the few rising young stars in the GOP, Aaron Schock, is too young to run for the Senate. Maybe next time around.

Comment by Bluefish Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 12:03 pm
NW burbs — all one has to do to determine the intelligence level of Durbin is to listen to him on the Sunday talk shows.

Comment by Crimefighter Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 12:30 pm
Whenever someone questions the intelligence of a public figure, I always why that person doesn’t run for office himself, if he is so smart. Or to quote John Cusack as Lloyd Dobler from “Say Anything”:

Lloyd Dobler: I got a question. If you guys know so much about women, how come you’re here at like the Gas ‘n’ Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?
Joe: By choice, man.

Comment by paddyrollingstone Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 12:51 pm
I think Durbin is unbeatable in a Dem primary but very vulnerable to the right candidate in the general election. Despite his many years in office, voters have no real sense of who he is–largely because he’s a politician’s politician.

It’s unfortunate for the Republicans that they have no one established to run against him, but a deep-pocketed businessman with a history of civic involvement might upset Durbin in 2008, when voters should be more willing to dump elected officials who personify politics as usual.

Comment by North by Northwest Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 2:50 pm
How does Illinois stack-up compared to other states on electing multi-millionaires?

My sense is that they don’t do well in Illinois. Peter Fitzgerald is the only one who got elected and he didn’t last.

But multi-millionaires turned Senate or Governor hopeful mostly flop in other states too.

Tom Golisano, Al Chechi, Michael Huffington, Ciresi in Minnesota.

Dayton finally got elected in Minnesota and had a Senate career that closely paralleled Peter Fitzgerald’s.

Corzine made it work in New Jersey. Herb Kohl in Wisconsin.

It seems like the party’s largely want to use these millionaire businessmen. On a national level it frees resources for other states without the demoralization of simply conceding.

On the state level it provides jobs of the political consultants. And the money put into GOTV helps the down ballot races in theory.

But largely these deep pockets businessmen get used by the political types.

Anybody who is getting advice to drop $15 million of his (or her) own money running against Durbin ought to seek a second opinion from someone who isn’t financially invested in the decision.

If you’re gonna drop $15 million bucks to try to become popular, it might make more sense to drop it in the charitable sector. Those people are more loyal in their affection that the political consultants who will probably stab Daddy Warbucks in the back once he stops writing checks. “Warbucks was a weak candidate for reasons X, Y and Z, but don’t use my name.”

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Jan 8, 07 @ 3:54 pm