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Poll: Because… Madigan!

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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

The Democrats got a bit of good news and some serious bad news in a recent Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll. And that bad news is particularly negative for anyone who can be credibly connected to House Speaker Michael Madigan.

The poll of 1,231 registered Illinois voters found presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leading presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump by 12 points, 47-35. Another 7 percent said they were voting for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 12 percent were undecided. The poll was taken June 5 and 6, had a margin of error of +/-3 percent, and 39 percent of the responses came from mobile phone users.

John Kerry won this state by 12 points in 2004, the last time an Illinois resident wasn’t on the presidential ticket. So, Clinton’s numbers are already aligning with Kerry’s. And the poll was taken before Illinois’ U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk and other Republicans withdrew their support from Trump.

Clinton is leading 67-17 in Chicago and 47-35 in suburban Cook County. Trump, however, is ahead 42-38 in the suburban collar counties and leads by 10 points, 45-35, among Downstate voters - the location of some potentially very hot state legislative battles, so it’s not all good news for the Dems. Then again, Democratic presidential candidates haven’t fared well in some Downstate regions in a long time, but Democratic legislators have mostly managed to hold onto their seats.

When looking at gender, location and voting history, the Libertarian candidate Johnson does his best with folks who have voted in the last three Republican primaries, scoring 11 percent - not good news for Trump at all.

But as Gov. Bruce Rauner’s people have been warning for months, the Democratic House Speaker is getting the blame for the yearlong governmental impasse by a huge margin.

“The Illinois General Assembly has once again adjourned its spring session without a budget agreement - an ongoing situation that some feel is caused by a clash between Governor Bruce Rauner and Speaker Mike Madigan,” poll respondents were told. They were then asked to assign blame between the two men.

The poll found that voters blame Madigan by a decisive 21-point margin, 55-34, with just 9 percent saying “both” and a mere 2 percent saying they were still undecided.

The polling company conducted a similar survey late last month for another client. Based on that earlier polling, the firm’s principal Gregg Durham said there “seems to be a widening gap putting the Speaker in the lead in the budget blame game.” Durham noted that while Rauner enjoys “relative solidarity among Republican voters, Speaker Madigan’s numbers are comparatively soft among Democrats.” For example, 28 percent of people who have taken Democratic ballots two out of the last three cycles say Madigan is chiefly to blame. Independents blamed Madigan 49-39.

Durham also said there were significantly more people who said they were undecided in the earlier poll. So, positions appear to be hardening.

Chicago is the only region that blames Gov. Rauner over Speaker Madigan for the impasse, 52-35. But there is only one contested race in the city, and Chicago GOP Rep. Michael McAuliffe’s district includes suburban Cook territory as well, where Madigan is blamed 54-36. And there are lots of expectedly competitive legislative races coming up in suburban Cook. About 7 percent blame both in Cook County and 3 percent are undecided.

Downstate voters predictably blame Madigan over Rauner 59-29, with 11 percent blaming both and an almost microscopic 1 percent saying they’re undecided. Just about everybody has an opinion on this one, and that opinion is not good for the Democrats.

Madigan does worst among collar county voters, where 64 percent blame the Speaker and just 27 percent blame Rauner, with 2 percent undecided and 8 percent blaming both men.

Just 29 percent of men blame Rauner, but a very strong 62 percent blame Madigan. Another 7 percent say both are to blame and 1 percent are undecided.

Fifty percent of female votes point their finger at Madigan as opposed to 38 percent who blame Rauner. 10 percent of women blame both and 3 percent are undecided.

The results reportedly confirm similar polling taken by the House Democrats and they definitely confirm polls taken by the Republicans. So, why continue down this path? The answer from multiple sources is that Madigan is convinced it’s up to him to stop Rauner in his tracks, even if that means taking some losses.

Subscribers have crosstabs and more info.

* Also, you may have seen some media coverage of a recent Illinois Observer poll on this topic. However, the publication did not disclose what company conducted the poll, which is highly unusual to say the least. It’s also a purely automated poll, so it likely doesn’t include mobile phone users. I’m not saying that my poll is 100 percent accurate. No poll is. And nobody should rely on any one poll or any one pollster. But that lack of disclosure troubles me.

* Related…

* Many Blame Madigan for Budget Impasse

* Editorial: Budget fight hurting Dems?

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:22 am

Comments

Madigan’s miscalculations continue hurting Dems. People can see it for themselves, and they are deciding by large margins.

Comment by New Day Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:27 am
Wait until Trump completely exposes HRC the next few months.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:29 am
–Wait until Trump completely exposes HRC the next few months.–

What, is there a problem with her birth certificate?

Because she hasn’t been scrutinized at all the past 24 years.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:37 am
Democratic leadership is, and has been, fully aware of this trend. If the rank and file were not, they are now.

As the News-Gazette asks, which Democrats are the ones Speaker Madigan =is willing to sacrifice= in order to =retain a failed approach?=

Who is he willing to give up in order to maintain this =epic struggle= of =NO=? Who wants to be an incumbent approaching voters in November for re-election without any progress to show? This is why I believe the working groups and rank and file will have success.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:38 am
At the national level Illinois is a Blue state.

Almost impossible for any Republican candidate to win and will be increasingly impossible in the future.

Very surprised that voters did not blame BOTH Madigan and Rauner for the budget mess.

Comment by Federalist Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:38 am
Rich, with your poll, do you know how the calls were distributed? If they were spread geographically across the state, I can easily see the results leaning the way they do. If they were spread by population density, then these results are indeed a bit surprising.

Comment by MSIX Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:41 am
1.4% is getting a pass from the majority of the press because he is out on the stump preaching his version of the impass.

Madigan, on the other hand, is keeping quiet and losing the media war.

Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:41 am
Anon - the problem with that theory is that Trump is not a credible believable source. So he can “expose” Clinton all he wants - but it will be less impactful because he is so disliked and distrusted by everyone except the 35% who say they are voting for him. His actual number will be higher than that - some people are afraid to state they are voting for him because they know they could be perceived as supporting a racist.

As long as I’ve been reading CapFax the IL GOP has tried to go after Dems with the Madigan connection and it rarely works. Rich - are your polls showing something different this year? Will the Madigan ties actually drag down House members ?

Comment by siriusly Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:41 am
MSIX, no poll that evenly distributes calls based on geography alone is a real poll.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:43 am
The GOP has spent years successfully creating the ‘Blame Madigan’ brand.
Rauner’s millions and IPI are further helping to dumb down the low information voters.
What is Rauner’s budget solution? The Turnaround Agenda will pay the past-due bills, right?
Sad.

Comment by Winnin' Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:43 am
Great work as usual Rich.

To the Post,

For me? It’s real easy. Break out this polling by Tier House & Senate races. Rauner & Madigan numbers only factor in there In the collar tier races, wow. These numbers will hurt. Downstate? Yikes. But, it’s a POTUS year and Labor and Social Services GOTV could weigh in at high numbers too.

This poll is what “Z” & the Schrimpf Brothers will factor their strategy, as will Dems & Labor theirs… All with a POTUS voters’ universe.

To the Democratic issue of Madigan,

Thinking that the 1971 style of moving or holding your messaging is working… It’s not. Rauner is winning the messaging with the inferior message. If Madigan wants to get out of “Super-Majority” Purgatory, and still keep his majority, this poll is the best news Madigan can have.

To Labor and Social Services,

It’s all about the impact you both can make in the micro districts, pairing up with Democrats. News flash to the social service groups… if you think trying to straddle the Raunerite - Democrats strategy is going to work, it’s not working now. It’s foolish to keep thinking “blame both sides” is smart. It’s hot you nowhere… and with Rauner vetoes to boot.

Rich, I said great work, now I’ll expand. It’s critical that Democrats, especially Madigan House Democrats, realize how badly they are getting beaten in messaging. Unless the micro breakouts jive to a strategy, this isn’t a good reflection to Madigan’s Shop and the ability to make the case with a winning message. Troubling.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:43 am
iirc, this is the first of those 24 years the FBI is scrutinizing HRC. Trump will have his say, but so will James Comey.

To the post, unless she can cast a vote for a compromise on reforms and a balanced budget in Illinois, she can’t help us much for now.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:45 am
===Wait until Trump completely exposes HRC the next few months.===

Gross.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:48 am
=MSIX, no poll that evenly distributes calls based on geography alone is a real poll.=

Agreed. Just wondering what distribution schema this poll used. As Chicago is the only region that blames Rauner, which is no surprise, I was curious how the distribution of calls matched up with the results by area.

Comment by MSIX Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:49 am
There is a belief out there that Madigan controls everything the House Democrats do, say, and think.

There can certainly be consequences for stepping outside of Madigan’s marching orders, but there would be a lot of surprised Madigan haters who would find that even without Madigan, those Democratic legislators agree about unions, the middle class, taxes, and the budget. Madigan may wield his power, but the Democratic legislators think for themselves. They’d still be opposing Rauner’s demands even if Madigan wasn’t in the picture.

Comment by Aldyth Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:49 am
So I was talking to my spouse about the poll. I don’t know the veracity of it. Who does these days but I wish I knew what percentage of households self identified as union households. I now realize why my phone was blowing up with strange numbers a few weeks ago. I didn’t answer a single one. Most of my sisters and brothers in Labor don’t answer them either because of the probes we got many months ago. I think survey science is a dicey thing. It’s scary to think that huge decisions are being made on the basis of them.

My point is that regardless of who is at fault our state is suffering.
People are losing jobs.
Businesses and agencies are closing.
Government contracts are not being honored.

And closest to me, our state workforce is in active collapse.

On the basis of polls we could be permanently crippling our state.

No workers, no state.

We’re bleeding out people

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:50 am
Emails, the Clinton Foundation, Benghazi, Slick Willy, ISIS, will all be out there and fresh.

Forget about 24 years, 10 years, 5 years. Those issues will be pounded into people’s minds repeatedly, against a woman who is extremely disliked.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:51 am
==will pay the past-due bills, right?==

==According to the Illinois Department of Revenue, if our state’s economy had grown at just the national average over the last 15 years, we would have generated $19 billion in additional revenue – even without the 2011 tax hike.

Just think about that. Today, we’d have no bill backlog with a billion dollars of interest payments. No budget crisis. And billions more for our schools, human services and infrastructure.=

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:52 am
–iirc, this is the first of those 24 years the FBI is scrutinizing HRC.–

LOL, you have a tendency to selective memory.

You apparently forgot the five years special prosecutors Fiske and Starr, the FBI and the IRS were all over the Clintons’ political, government, business and personal lives.

It was in all the papers.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:53 am
“As Gov. Bruce Rauner’s people have been warning for months, the Democratic House Speaker is getting the blame for the yearlong governmental impasse by a huge margin.”

The Governor of Illinois had a choice: work to establish blame for the governmental impasse, or work to solve the impasse.

One wonders where we would be had Bruce Rauner made a different choice.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:55 am
Maybe Madigan is being blamed for the budget impasse because he deserves the blame.

Comment by justacitizen Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:55 am
- FKA -

So… What “reforns” would’ve made all that possible?

Rauner is the champ at looking “back”, then telling everyone “don’t look back, look ahead”…

… and looking ahead, all I see is Decimating Labor equals 1.4%, $500+ million growth, not growth at any average, national or otherwise.

If you have other numbers, please share them.

Saying “if we wouldda… “, that’s only going to be met with… “If we do, it’s 1.4%, $500+ million” as s response… per Rauner’s own numbers. No bluster, math.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:56 am
===against a woman who is extremely disliked. ===

You can’t beat somebody with nobody. And your candidate is obviously even more disliked here.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:57 am
Most people I talk to blame Madigan and are shocked when I tell them that I support him. They aren’t even interested in why I feel that way.
I am in a downstate REPUBLICAN county and Madigan has been the “enemy” so long, that many people probably believe that he was standing alongside Pontius Pilate…

Comment by downstate commissioner Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 9:58 am
- justacitizen -

“Pat Quinn failed… ”

The message is true, governors own, always been. Rauner’s weaker messages is beating a truth. That’s on the Democrats.

You can’t agree that “Pat Quinn failed… ” and then say that truth doesn’t apply here in thus budget stalemate.

I cite “Eric Zorn” and his… original… insight with the “Pat Quinn failed… “

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:00 am
Rauner is the problem. Get rid of Rauner!

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:05 am
Pontus Pilot wouldn’t have Madigan near him. Bad Karma

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:05 am
Just because you blame someone for a particular problem doesn’t mean you’re going to turn and vote for the other party.

Comment by NoGifts Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:05 am
- Honeybear -

To you, and to you and Labor, very specifically.

Even if this poll was 180 degrees… Ignore it to your task at hand.

If you, - Honeybear -, and Labor dwell on any, and I mean any poll, good or bad, and not on reducing 2 in 5 to 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 in the micro districts, you are wasting yours and everyone’s time.

As an entity, Labor needs to recognize the in-house power that reducing 2 in 5 to 1 in 5 can mean…

… in House races that Labor can make a difference.

Read the poll, digest it, understand it, then focus on Labor. Until that house is in order, how are you, Labor, going to convince others as you do?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:05 am
I may be slow, but it finally occurred to me the other day that the Governor’s “Blame Madigan” campaign had a duel motivation. One is the obvious motivation: to drive down Democratic votes, elect more Republicans, pass the Runaground Agenda, etc.

But the second motivation was likely a conscious decision by early 2015 that Lisa Madigan was the most formidable 2018 potential candidate against Rauner, and the best way to ensure that she not be in a position to run was to wage an all-out war on the Madigan name and brand. Lisa would be intended collateral damage in that war.

Of course, by precluding compromise, seniors, the disabled, higher ed., and the State have also been collateral damage. But that’s been acceptable, from the Governor’s perspective.

Comment by Keyrock Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:05 am
Representative X, when is the last time you voted for a balanced budget?

Representative X, why did you vote for another out of balance budget this year when the state has run a deficit 14 years in a row?

Representative X, why didn’t the House pass any meaningful reforms of their own? Or compromise with the Governor? Do you think nothing needs to change in Illinois?

The questions and attacks will write themselves in November. At this rate, they will need to show progress or have some very good answers.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:06 am
- FKA -

Sounds good.

May 18th ring any bells?

A motivated voting bloc rallying against Rauner…

Tillman on the 17th, the rally on the 18th… Which do I think showed a motivated group in a POTUS voting universe?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:09 am
Maybe I’m too cynical, but this poll just proves to me if you spend enough money on the same message, you can move polls (and maybe voters) … especially in an anti-incumbent year.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:11 am
I strongly agree with OW about the micro. Union members have to understand that with almost no exceptions, Republicans are not their allies, The GOP helped do irreparable damage to the state by fully allying with Rauner and the few billionaires who want to whack middle class workers and spare themselves.

As far as the “both sides are to blame” theme, I’d believe it more if there was a deal out there that doesn’t have the anti-union poison pills and other TA items, that Rauner would accept. I haven’t seen any indication that Rauner would accept this.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:12 am
Not a news flash, but any R candidate is more disliked here.

FKA, good info on revenue if the IL economy had matched the growth of the national economy.

People want to throw the blame completely at Rauner for EIU’s woes. Yet for a 5 year period starting in 2010, the school lost 23% of the student body. Keep most of them and there are no problems. Rauner wasn’t guv then, Quinn was. Why weren’t the democrats keeping their eye on the problem/helping out?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:13 am
Does the pereception that the impasse is Madigan’s fault make it the reality? MrJM’s comment at 9:55am rings true to me.

Comment by My New Handle Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:14 am
The - @MisterJayEm - Rule on ” - Anonymous - ” is again proven a worthy rule to follow.

(Tips cap to - GOM -)

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:15 am
I think all Trump supporters walk and talk like ducks when they’re not whistling for the dog.

Comment by Triple fat Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:16 am
This is interesting because everyone I speak to blames Rauner for the impasse.

Comment by Mama Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:16 am
As always I appreciate your guidance OW. The poll ponderings really come from a desire to understand, gain actionable insight to effect the very change you are suggesting. The other day when I commented about Trump and Southern Illinoisans/DOC folk I was concerned about how I and my Local can reach those folk. As with this poll I’m concerned about how do I message through the static. I’m doing my homework to understand, interpret the data then give my leaders the insight I can provide. All evidence to the contrary, I’m a thinker and strategist, I’m one of the few in my area. That’s why I soak up everything I can from this blog. Countering arguments with insight and analysis is one of my main contributions. Thank you as always.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:17 am
==People want to throw the blame completely at Rauner==

No, most people do not. Most people want the Governor to stop playing the victim wear the blame jacket with everyone else.

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:19 am
The results of this poll sure don’t point to a way out of the state’s budget impasse. Madigan, a veteran par excellence of Illinois political wars, probably doesn’t pay too much attention to polls. But were he to do so in this case-what can he do. Rauner’s agenda could negatively affect labor, and labor is an extremely important Democratic constituency. How can Madigan compromise on matters of such important to a critical group of supporters. As to Rauner, he claims he ran for office to implement this agenda, which he believes is critical for the state. How does he back off of that-unless he plans to leave office early. If he gives up his agenda and agrees the Democrats were right all along-how does he spend the rest of his term?

As to the general public, lots are probably just happy their taxes arent’ going up again yet. They’re too busy working and raising the kids to dig into the details.

We’re stuck, it seems.

Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:19 am
Hillary wins the state by 20 points and the Dems get the veto-proof majority to make Rauner irrelevant.

The End (hopefully).

Comment by Chucktownian Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:21 am
welp, the Dems better hope Labor energy and organization can counteract these views. A big turnout operation can do a lot to cancel this out.

Comment by Johnny Pyle Driver Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:21 am
- @MisterJayEm @ 9:55 am: - +1

It’s to bad we will never know if Rauner could have helped IL.

Comment by Mama Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:22 am
MJM is popular in his district and has a strong hold on his house members. Rauner runs state wide and is not popular. This is a district vs state wide issue.

Comment by facts are stubborn things Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:23 am
no matter what the polls say, the issue is that MJM is calling for a budget with cuts and revenue and Rauner agrees other then he wants his “turn around agenda” first. It is Rauner that is holding up the budget and it is the budget that is becoming most critical to have.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:25 am
–As the News-Gazette asks, which Democrats are the ones Speaker Madigan =is willing to sacrifice= in order to =retain a failed approach?=–

That’s a new one. All these years, I thought the knock on Madigan was that all he cared about was building and maintaining his majority.

But your theory appears to be that he’s acitively willing to “sacrifice” his members in order to keep a budget from being passed.

When did this metamorphosis occur?

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:25 am
no matter what the polls say, the issue is that MJM is calling for a budget with cuts and revenue and Rauner agrees other then he wants his “turn around agenda” first. It is Rauner that is holding up the budget and it is the budget that is becoming most critical to have.

Comment by facts are stubborn things Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:26 am
===Dems get the veto-proof majority to make Rauner irrelevant.===

That’s bad news for Madigan. In realty, now, Madigan will be better served with 66 to 68 members.

- Honeybear -

Understood, and no disrespect to you. I was not diminishing the learning aspect, I was too caught up in the weeds to get back at the table for discussion.

Maybe the real discussion is … how much of this is Rauner money versus how much of this is Democrats continually losing the day to an inept Rauner Press Operation?

What is the percentage for each?

My apologies if you think I was dismissing your intellectual curiosity.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:26 am
Because so many suburban Cook Co. townships are so Democratic now, maybe 5 routinely vote Republican (Barrington may be No.1 here.) doesn’t the ratio in the suburbs seem a little low. And quite a few of the townships are heavily AA or Hispanic.

Comment by Elmira Eddie Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:27 am
Downstate Commish: Right you are, and these also tend to be the same folks who are SURE that downstate Illinois would THRIVE if we could only, ONLY separate ourselves from Chicago.

Comment by Way Way Down Here Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:28 am
Rauner will make sure labor is forced to strike way before the Nov. election. If Labor is on strike, will Labor still the Dems win the elections? Labor please take note.

Comment by Mama Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:29 am
I was under the impression that the governor owns the lack of a budget. Read it here from some really smart posters. Turns out Rauner is merely a minority owner of the problem.

I have nothing to support this with, but I suspect Madigan’s refusal of Rauner’s temporary budget offer was a mistake. It is hard for those who pay rapt attention to all things politics to understand how little attention most voters pay to the issues. They get info in small bits often taken out of context. Rauner is winning at this so far. Doesn’t mean he will in the future.

Comment by Anony Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:30 am
I can’t believe the people of Illinois would blame someone who has been largely in charge of Springfield for more than three decades, and who’s only solution to the current impasse appears to be, “Give me everything I want, and I’ll let you take the blame.” Shocking.

Comment by JB13 Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:31 am
Oops…
“If Labor is on strike, will Labor still the Dems win the elections?” That should read:
If Labor is on strike before Nov., will Labor still help the Dems win their elections?

Comment by Mama Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:35 am
- Anony -

Maybe the question that is to be asked is why when Rauner was so successful with the known historic truth that “Governors Own” is Rauner so successful in deflecting that truth on himself, given that Democrats, right “now” seem to be refusing to engage in a messaging war that clearly they are losing… daily.

Since when is the truthful message guaranteed to be the accepted message every time?

Work only reinforces messaging, not osmosis.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:36 am
“So, why continue down this path? The answer from multiple sources is that Madigan is convinced it’s up to him to stop Rauner in his tracks, even if that means taking some losses.”

I am completely against the snake in sheep clothing (Rauner).

That aside, the anti-venom for this situation is Madigan steps aside. ASAP.

Two things then happen. All the Rauner high dollar messaging tying all Dems to Madigan is completely neutralized. And, the Madigan name is not completely pummeled making it unusable in the future.

Think about it. Take a loss and stop this crap in its tracks.

Comment by cdog Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:36 am
Rauner is going to win this unless and until the middle class starts hurting, not the poor. Did anyone see the story in the Sun-Times about property taxes in Chicago going up 13%? Taxpayers are getting hit by every taxing body that can hit them. An outer space alien reading the comments on this board would think that the only people who would suffer from a Madigan victory are people like Rauner and his 1% friends, rather than families with stretched-thin budgets taking on tax and/or rent increases. Voters typically blame Democrats for tax increases and Republicans for service cuts. In this context it’s understandable how blame is getting spread around in the polls.

Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:41 am
===Wait until Trump completely exposes HRC the next few months.===

There’s more? Wasn’t the revelation about her hairy toes enough?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:49 am
The skew in this poll derives from the flawed question. Madigan, unlike Rauner, will not be running Statewide. Outside of Madigan’s district, no one is voting for or against him. Voters outside Madigan’s district may very well dislike the Governor and dislike Madigan even more. They may dislike Madigan and vote for their Democratic candidate for State Representative. It is well known that Madigan is extremely disliked Statewide, even (and sometimes especially) by Democratic voters. Much better questions would be: “Who do you think is responsible for the impasse, Governor Rauner or the Democrats in the legislature?” or “Do you support the job Governor Rauner is doing?” or “If the election were held today, would you vote for Governor Rauner?”

Comment by Quiet Sage Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:01 am
===Maybe I’m too cynical, but this poll just proves to me if you spend enough money on the same message, you can move polls (and maybe voters) … especially in an anti-incumbent year.===

RNUG, I picked this up during the primary in a diverse number of precincts. That was before there was any real money and emphasis behind it. It’s only growing with more paid media behind it. People already believe this. The paid media is re-enforcing what they already think. This will get worse for the Speaker and the Dems.
Not sure what effect it will have on Trump/Hillary. That one’s a red herring in this state. But in the legislature? There’s a huge anti-Speaker sentiment. I think we’ll even see numbers in the city begin to reflect growing dissatisfaction.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:07 am
===Much better questions would be===

Fine. Commission your own poll.

The GOP message is now and will be throughout the summer and fall: Blame Madigan! So, that’s the issue I wanted to test.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:08 am
Don’t be surprised if the national Dem party doesn’t spend much here, except perhaps for a few congressional races.

Likewise for the GOP.

don’t look for much “energy” in November except perhaps from the pirates feeding at the taxpayer trough. Those who will vote for anyone with a “D” next to their name who have to show they voted will be there, and those who vote reflexively for an “R” might show.

Don’t underestimate the “protest” vote for Trump by a lot of angry fed up citizens. Hillary will win because of the Blue culture here, and Kirk really has no support base against Tammy anymore, so neither the POTUS or Senatorial race will draw much action.

The GOP may pick up a few state house senate and house seats, but it won’t matter. By and large the Dems pick “likable” candidates, usually of the majority ethnicity of their district, and they’ll be re-elected regardless of policy or issues in Springfield.

There just isn’t much at stake in this election in Illinois in the minds of the voters. choices are weak, and few GA members have raised voter ire or are under indictment, so why bother to vote?

For the first time in my life, I may not bother to vote in my Cook county district. Lipinsky isn’t contested, rep Kelly Burke isn’t contested, Sen. Cunningham isn’t contested, and Hillary’s gonna win Illinois.

Why bother? This mood isn’t unique in Illinois…

Comment by Illinois Bob Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:08 am
===I think we’ll even see numbers in the city begin to reflect growing dissatisfaction.===

Read Rich’s poll results up top, get back to us….

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:10 am
Willy - hope you’re well. I’m not sure the Dems have the winning message often assumed here. To me, the message has to include a plan to make better the lives of the average voter. And some acknowledgement that people (not just union people) are hurting. The message sounds to the average voter like “we need more from you”. As I said earlier, that’s just what it looks like from here, and it can change quickly.

Also, Trump’s effect is a bit of a wildcard, imo. Clinton is a free-trader, while Trump has protectionist tendencies, it seems. He also talks about a strong foreign policy. These things might play well in some of the micro areas you mentioned earlier (I agree he’ll lose the state by a mile), but would not likely show up in polls. Whether that has any effect down ballot is the $64,000 question.

Comment by Anony Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:11 am
===This will get worse for the Speaker and the Dems.===

Yep. Just like Sen. McCann, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:11 am
The middle class is already hurting, atlhough not just in Illinois. Income stagnation, loss of jobs to automation and globalization, increasingly disparate access to high-quality education, intensifying racial and economic housing segregation, these trends are covered regularly in the media. And the middle class itself is shrinking, a trend which include an increase in high, not just low earners. In Illinois, with its regressive state tax system, this means there will be even fewer taxpayers carrying an even more burdensome share of the state tax load. But who’s counting. The unfairness of the state’s income tax structure is only occasionally mentioned by the state’s politicians of either party. Indeed, the Republicans hardly mention it at all.

Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:14 am
OW, Oh I know you meant no disrespect. The rock and a hard place of Rauner cash and inept DEM press shop is why we (AFSCME) moved off the news cycle battle to the one on one field and to social media which moves asymmetrically through networks and community then touches the edges of our opposition. The overlap area is the very DOC/ Southern Illinois labor folks that Rauner is also courting. We’ve found that smart/funny memes change perceptions and stimulate the “point of agitation” (that point which forces a moral choice). The constant barrage of memes is having it’s desired effects. Local meeting attendance is way up, coordination amongst Labor is way up, (as evidenced by recent direct actions) as is coordination with social service agencies and higher ed folks. But we’re off the news cycle were we will always get clobbered. It’s asymmetrical from here on out. But yes, all focused on reducing the 2/5 AND on changing public perception of labor in one on one fashion. Slow, quiet and behind the scenes.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:15 am
Rich - I thought the Madigan/Rauner question was well-constructed. Getting a fair question ain’t as easy as it might seem. Someone earlier said Madigan isn’t running statewide. While technically true, I think he is from a practical point of view, considering the past many months.

Comment by Anony Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:17 am
–That aside, the anti-venom for this situation is Madigan steps aside. ASAP.–

Huh, that’s an interesting hypothetical. But say it happened. Who would be Speaker then? Not going to happen but interesting.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:28 am
With regard to the poll(s) and Rauner’s “Blame Madigan” campaign with all the money behind and newspapers and other media outlets repeating it, to me it is shades of the past and the “What was she thinking” campaign…

Comment by LINK Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:40 am
Honeybear, I wonder if Madigan believes he needs to step aside in order for his daughter to have a good shot at becoming governor. Same family running the executive and legislative branches might not play too well with the electorate. If she’s interested, and they believe running g against Rauner is her best chance……I doubt it happens, too, but ya’ never know, I guess.

Comment by Anony Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:43 am
I agree with IL Bob that, among the angst of the people of the state, is a feeling that nothing will help at the voting booth. The IL GOP is not trying to win anything, not even fielding enough candidates to flip the Senate with a tailwind going down a 10% grade, and being competitive in maybe a handful of state House districts. Other than those who take an extreme interest in stopping Trump or stopping Hillary, I don’t see a lot of reasons for excitement at the ballot box.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:46 am
- Anony -

I’m well, hope you’re well too. To that comment, the trenches of the districts, the precincts, that is usually a Dem positive. Dunno if this year, even in a POTUS voter universe, that’s the case. Might be a wash.

To your other…

===I wonder if Madigan believes he needs to step aside in order for his daughter to have a good shot at becoming governor.===

See the AG’s response when she decided not to run last time.

It’s not that MJM is going to abdicate, it’s that he won’t, and that’s that. That’s more telling than thinking MJM has been holding on for two decades, ala Kass, for the AG.

Nope.

With great respect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:50 am
- Honeybear -

I appreciate that you understood, and I also know you are doing the things way ahead of me even suggesting them.

Still, I do apologize if it came across less understanding in the first place.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 11:51 am
That lack of disclosure might bother us too if it weren’t for the fact the other “data” comes from a lovable band of desperadoes with close ties to a biz group that generally get about $1 million every in state cash for “workforce development” which makes all the numbers pretty much the same.
It is also important to note BigBrain is on his “Escape From Trump Tour” while sending Chip and Nick to Vegas to get Sheldon’s cash for a PRO Trump SuperPac. BigBrain Cash will be toxic too.

Comment by Annonin' Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 12:02 pm
Rich - curious…some have theorized, in past years, that Madigan would prefer having a simple majority for a variety of reasons…one being the GOP is then on the hook to make tough votes especially for tax increases while at the same time Madigan continues to control the legislative agenda. What’s your opinion on this theory?

Comment by Just saying... Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 12:06 pm
When you factor those in who have already voted with their feet, this is a surprisingly positive poll for Rauner, and admittedly, I’m pleasantly surprised!

Comment by DuPage Don Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 12:40 pm
==good info on revenue if the IL economy had matched the growth of the national economy==

Thanks, but it was not my info. I put that in =quotes= because it was a quote from Rauner about the Department of Revenue data.

I try not to post links unless necessary because they can disrupt the display for mobile readers, but anyone who wants can search that statement and find more.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 12:45 pm
The second part to that is will the blame madigan crowd vote against a canidate based on the unfavorable….

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 12:56 pm
–Goodness. All that time, all that scrutiny, and yet the First Lady was never called in for an interview by the FBI as HRC currently is.–

That’s quite a scoop you have there. When was Clinton “called in for an interview by the FBI,” as “HRC currently is?”

–Bill’s actions were generally the cause and target of most of that scrutiny. HRC was never directly interviewed by the FBI, even during Travelgate and Whitewater.–

She was compelled to answer questions before the grand jury. She was compelled to turn over her law firms records.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 12:59 pm
bet McAuliffe goes with Kirk more than anyone else.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 1:22 pm
Excellent poll, but given that Madigan has been very unpopular with all voters for a long time in state-wide polls, is this influencing the question of budget blame, i.e. who is prepared to respond pro-Madigan in any poll question because of his high negatives ?

The key question I’m not sure of is whether voters would support a candidate from the opposite party in Nov in response to the budget stalemate ? Given Rauner’s plummeting approval, I think this goes against R candidates.

Perhaps famous last words.

Comment by peon Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 2:48 pm
Most people like to have someone, preferably one person, to blame - its easier than researching the issues. But that kind of easy blame is fickle and can shift quickly and suddenly. Its still early and a long time until November.

Comment by Joe M Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 3:08 pm
Just an observation … Madigan seems to be better at taking the arrows that Rauner, or at least MJM does a good job of projecting calm. If this gets really, really dirty this fall, I would expect Rauner to blow up before Madigan … especially if there is any October surprise to be had.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 3:43 pm
I also agree that the numbers in the city will reflect more dissatisfaction than currently. The. 13 percent property tax hike the average tax payer will see in their mailbox in a few weeks is just the tip of the iceberg. A 2 billion dollar property tax increase over the next 4 years will make it hard for city reps the rubber stamp a huge income tax hike on the middle class.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 4:07 pm
RNUG, Rauner is used to difficult, complicated negotiations with his money and the $ of investors.

MJM is experienced in negotiating with house money(read taxpayers)

Big difference

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 4:32 pm
=That’s quite a scoop you have there. When was Clinton “called in for an interview by the FBI,” as “HRC currently is?”=

Credit CBS and others for the scoop. =A source has confirmed to CBS News that Hillary Clinton will be interviewed by the FBI within the coming weeks, in connection with the investigation into her private email server.=

==She was compelled to answer questions before the grand jury. She was compelled to turn over her law firms records.==

Those are false equivalences. They do not rise to the level of 150 FBI agents conducting an investigation which she is at the center of. Even during Travelgate and Whitewater, she was never directly interviewed by the FBI.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 5:13 pm
–Those are false equivalences. They do not rise to the level of 150 FBI agents conducting an investigation which she is at the center of.–

LOL, your “150 FBI agents” claim is simply false. Catch up, you’re a few months behind.

And being questioned before a grand jury and turning over your business records to a special prosecutor is hardly a walk in the park.

Do you even know what point you’re trying to make?

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/03/29/washington-post-corrects-faulty-report-that-nea/209615

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 5:25 pm
As a Democratic Socialist, I think Hillary is more concerned about the emails Wikileaks is poised to release. Just sayin…

Comment by Triple fat Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 8:58 pm
Michael Madigan should have ran for the governor of Illinois then we would have a budget. He’s power hungry he feeds off his ego.

Comment by No Sense Tuesday, Jun 14, 16 @ 10:09 pm
=willing to “sacrifice” his members in order to keep a budget from being passed.=

Reading comprehension a little rusty? Here is a clue for the clueless: Try reading the conclusion of @Rich’s column and the linked stories again.

Particularly the last sentence concerning his willingness to take some losses if necessary to stop Rauner.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 3:52 am
=150 FBI agents=

So it is =dozens= rather than 150. Good thing we corrected each other, like I helped correct the confusion about her upcoming FBI interview with that old =scoop= from CBS.

Done in such a pleasant manner, as well. Top of the morning.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 4:31 am