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Yard signs don’t vote, but they’re here to stay

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Illinois

No one loves lawn signs more than political candidates. Political candidates love lawn signs because 1. They love seeing their name around, 2. They assume that the number of lawn signs they see somehow correlates to the level of support they enjoy and 3. They know that campaigns have lawn signs, and candidates are biased toward mimicking what winning candidates have done. Between 1984 and 2012, according to one study, use of lawn signs in campaigns quadrupled.

The problem with lawn signs, as any campaign manager would probably tell you, is that they are expensive, annoying, logistically tricky to distribute and — most importantly — don’t seem to do much of anything. Candidates like to feel as if they’re winning. Campaign managers like to know that they’re winning or at least making progress. So campaign managers like things that have either measurable effects on voters (like identifying targeted supporters) or demonstrated past effects (like advertising). Lawn signs don’t fit into either category. To a campaign manager, lawn signs are similar to randomly handing out fliers at a grocery store: a waste of time, money and energy.

Meh. Campaigns often find out who their strongest supporters are when voters agree to put up a yard sign after being contacted either door-to-door or by phone. Campaigns can then circle back and ask the supporters to get even more involved, either by volunteering or by contributing or both. The sign placements also provide physical evidence that precinct workers and phone-bankers are doing their jobs.

* The WaPo story is actually about a new study on yard signs…

Cutting to the chase: “[I]t appears that signs typically have a modest effect on advertising candidates’ vote shares — an effect that is probably greater than zero but unlikely to be large enough to alter the outcome of a contest that would otherwise be decided by more than a few percentage points.” The effect of such signs, the study suggests, is about the same as direct mail.

Of the researchers’ four experiments, only one involved what you might generally think of as yard signs. In three of the experiments, signs were placed in public places within randomly assigned precincts. In the fourth, signs were placed in supporters’ yards — the thing that campaigns often spend a lot of time coordinating. In that case, interestingly, the effects were essentially zero. Aggregated, the four experiments suggested that there was a 1.7 percentage-point boost to the candidate from the signs — with a standard error of 0.7 percentage points. (In precincts adjacent to the targeted ones, there was a slightly smaller benefit.)

If the impact is “about the same as direct mail,” then don’t expect campaigns to stop putting up yard signs any time soon. Campaigns send out tons and tons of direct mail. Not to mention that they all use robocalls, even though it’s getting more difficult to reach voters that way in the height of campaign season because so few people will answer their phones due to the stupefyingly overwhelming crush of the automated calls.

* One other item of note…

The silver lining is that the study suggests that the much-easier distribution of lawn signs in random public places is more effective than finding supporters and plunking signs in their yards.

Except, that’s illegal.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 10:27 am

Comments

The covenant in our sub-division does not allow political yard signs - thank god!

Comment by Rufus Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 10:32 am
I recently ordered a Clinton/Kaine lawn sign. $30 with shipping, using a promo code for a discount. Ah, for the good old days when they were free.

Comment by Because I said so.... Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 10:37 am
Reminds me of when a friend from Kansas came to SPI for a visit that took place in October of an election.

He told me when they first came into town he thought everyone in Springfield has their home on the market due to the number of signs in front yards.

But this is Springfield where GOP state and county workers express their love for their jobs via yard signs.

Comment by Give Me A Break Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 10:39 am
Normally I despise yard signs. This year they’re actually handy see someone who has a Trump sign assume mental deficiency.

Comment by Mason born Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 10:43 am
Because: Not sure if you got taken for a ride or what, but the day a candidate charges me for a sign is the day that candidate’s sign does not go up in my yard.

Comment by Give Me A Break Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 10:44 am
@Give Me A Break, I viewed it as a small financial contribution to the campaign that I support.

Comment by Because I said so.... Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 10:46 am
Grew up in the country. Worst thing for us was when the signs seemed to pop up overnight along fields, pastures and in the yard. Dad Loathed it. Either mowed them over with the Bush hog or used them 4 target stands.

Comment by Mason born Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 10:53 am
No one loves yard signs more than candidates … except the people who print them

Comment by The Way I See It Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 10:56 am
I voted against Jim Ryan for the sole reason that every election day I would wake up to find his signs sprouting overnight along public road right of ways. I figured if he wasn’t willing to follow the law, I could hardly expect him to enforce the law.

We never placed signs on public property. Never.

Comment by Tommydanger Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 10:59 am
I have noticed a certain party has put up signs in the right-of-way of park district property, right across from a polling station for several years here. Always surprised they had the nerve to do it, let alone repeatedly. Annoys me to no end to see signs in public r.o.w.’s.

Comment by Shemp Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:09 am
Yard signs do put the candidates name out there. I think the signs are good for the unknown candidates.

Comment by Mama Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:10 am
—Except, that’s illegal.—

I may be splitting hairs here, but thats not necessarily true. While it is true that you cannot put yard signs on government property, you can strategically put yard signs on private property, which is adjacent to public spaces.

Comment by a modest proposal Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:12 am
What really irks me is when signs stay up for months after the election is over. I think all candidates should be required to remove their signs within a reasonable period of time (a week, maybe) or be fined.

Comment by JoanP Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:18 am
Some signs (the larger ones) can show a candidates strength both in organization and in support. Different counties and townships have different traditions when it comes to signs. In some places, people expect tons of signs everywhere - including r.o.w. - and if you don’t, you look weak. Some places abhor them, and you have to be careful how you get them out.

Subdivisions that don’t allow them are only able to do that with the consent of everyone that lives there. That practice was found unconstitutional in the 90s down in the St. Louis area (Ladue?), but who wants to be “that guy” to their neighbors?

Signs are a pain in the neck, somewhat expensive and just a part of campaigns now. Hard to imagine a respectable campaign - even one spending millions on tv ads - that didn’t have signs available to supporters to display in their yards.

Comment by LessAnon? Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:18 am
Candidate with the most Illegal yard signs loses my vote. In the 11th CD race Kouri puts them where ever she pleases, parks, medians, vacant commercial property. That was just for the primary. Can’t imagine what the general will look like. Ugh.

Comment by Anon2U Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:21 am
I’ve planted them in our yard for Aldermanic elections, but only in highly contested situations where I felt it would get me a couple of points if my guy won.

I wanted to do it last year during a local run-off. We were out of town for awhile and the people watering our plants were supporting the other candidate (in the run-off) and their help meant more to me than the election.

Comment by Belle Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:34 am
Yard signs are about the same as direct mail?! I can’t imagine a candidate for State Rep/Sen, City Council, or local office being viable without mail in a contested race.

Also, I don’t think campaign managers should be thinking about whether yard signs work overall, they should be thinking about whether yard signs work for their particular race.

Comment by Century Club Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:35 am
===Except, that’s illegal.===

The enforcement is nearly non-existent. As a precinct captain I can say that the campaigns that strew signs in public access routes are generally the ones that are losing, or at the very least lazy. I’m not certain how many people are influenced by those; but a tuned-in neighbor who pays attention with a sign in their yard? That does have some influence.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:37 am
For a newcomer, with low name awareness, they can help increase it.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:39 am
Cost for posting a Hillary sign…$30.

Cost for NOT posting a Hillary sign…$150!

It’s the Chicaguh way!

Precinct Captain, isn’t that what you tell your Dem patronage workers?LOL

Comment by Illinois bob Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:39 am
When I lived in Chicago’s 19 ward (Beverly and Mt Greenwood) we had an old joke regarding yard signs. The Precinct captain would come to your door and ask, “Do you want to put up our candidates’ yard signs, or are you tired of having your garbage picked up?”LOL

Comment by illinois Bob Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:51 am
It’s certainly encouraging to a candidate when a sea of his or her signs sprout up. It’s also discouraging to the opposition. The number of sign locations on lawns is also a good way to measure effectie precinct work.

Comment by anon2 Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:52 am
@Illinois Bob, no one asked me to purchase a Hillary sign. I do live in Chicago and feel strongly about this election. It was my choice.

Comment by Because I said so.... Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:56 am
it is not illegal on election day !

(10 ILCS 5/7-41)
The area on polling place property beyond the campaign free zone, whether publicly or privately owned, is a public forum for the time that the polls are open on an election day….The regulation of electioneering on polling place property on an election day, including but not limited to the placement of temporary signs, is an exclusive power and function of the State.

Comment by lech W Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:58 am
“Campaigns often find out who their strongest supporters are when voters agree to put up a yard sign after being contacted either door-to-door or by phone. Campaigns can then circle back and ask the supporters to get even more involved, either by volunteering or by contributing or both.”

Sadly, most campaigns could cut their yard sign budgets by 70% and still accomplish these worthy goals.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 11:58 am
Yard signs aren’t as much an indicator of willingness to help as many might think. It is the least possible effort action for many people and it is them “doing their part” to help the campaign. They suck up money and time for the campaign.

Comment by Anonish Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 12:40 pm
There may be reasons to put up yard signs, but making a difference in the election is not one of the reasons. Demoralizing the opponent that had the nerve to run against your candidate might make you feel good, but it is certainly not a great use of resources.

Comment by Orzo Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 12:42 pm
Like several commenter so, I don’t like seeing signs on public property or on private property, without permission.

ROW’s are tricky. In some cases, they are public property. In others, they’re private property that has a road easement so a sign may be legal, if the property owner agrees.

I consider them visual clutter.

Comment by Sir Reel Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 1:15 pm
Another perspective here — I hold nonpartisan office in a smaller city. Yard signs are one of the best ways to call attention to such contests and get your name in front of the public. Newspapers are losing circulation, radio costs too much. So you hope you have or can find friends with strategically located yards. Never put them on public property and always take them down promptly.

Comment by Just Chilling Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 2:41 pm
The best part is when candidates go nuts and start tearing down their opponent’s yard signs!

Comment by Boone's is Back Wednesday, Aug 3, 16 @ 3:05 pm
I truly believe that when a person agrees to a yard sign, while they may simply be doing their precinct capt a favor, the sign will help reinforce their commitment to vote for that candidate. Neighbors are also influenced by the sign as it creates name recognition and/or validates a candidate. I think is most true in the lower profile races.

Comment by Groucho Friday, Aug 19, 16 @ 1:27 pm