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It’s Rauner’s day, and Durbin will be in the crosshairs

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Illinois

The schedule says Governor’s Day, also known as Republican Day, but make no mistake: It’s Gov. Bruce Rauner’s day at the Illinois State Fair. […]

Rauner has remade the Republican Party in Illinois, using his wealth and that of his friends to provide campaign resources unlike anything the state GOP has ever seen.

Rauner has provided the state party organization with more than $10 million from his campaign fund for this election cycle. That, in turn, has allowed the state GOP to move huge sums of cash to the legislative campaign arms of state House and Senate Republicans.

Much of that money has been turned into cable TV ads and mailers backing Republicans challenging targeted Democratic incumbents in the suburbs and Downstate, most often seeking to connect the officeholders with Rauner’s chief nemesis, longtime House Speaker Michael Madigan, who chairs the state Democratic Party.

* Some of today’s focus, I’m told, will be on US Sen. Dick Durbin, who’s been openly mulling a run against Rauner in 2018, including when he was at a Metro East event with Rauner just the other day.

“I think you’re going to see folks address [Durbin] in their remarks today and it will be part of a larger effort over the course of the next few months as long as he’s considering,” said a Rauner insider this morning. “He’s had a free pass in the press in our view.”

The insider said Durbin has “Mountains of baggage,” adding, “He’s screwed up DC for over 30 years and thinks he’s qualified to fix the state? What a joke. And, oh, by the way - he embarked on this navel gazing exercise about whether to run by first kissing Mike Madigan’s ring.”

Mess with the bull…

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 8:46 am

Comments

It’s Madigan’s fault …

Comment by Huh? Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 8:53 am
Maybe Sen. Durbin hasn’t fully grasped what it means to face $60, $70, $80 million in negative ads and narratives 24/7/365 starting the millisecond the yard sign paint begins to dry.

I just can’t see taking on Rauner as a wise move, specifically, for Durbin.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 8:54 am
It’d be a shame if the power went out again today…

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 8:55 am
Well, these “insiders” better watch it. No matter how much they fawn over Rauner, there’s still the issue of Trump — and that might very well chasten some of the sycophants when they start losing millions on races they thought were sure things.

Comment by Bobby Catalpa Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 8:55 am
=== “He’s had a free pass in the press in our view.” ===

Sorry Bruce. But when you screw up as bad as you do, your free pass ends after a year and a half. Maybe you should consider governing…?

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 8:56 am
Besides, Rauner’s done more quantifiable damage in 20 months than Durbin’s done in his entire career.

What, Rauner’s gonna run on the mess he created and the threats of mess he hopes to create?

Comment by Bobby Catalpa Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 8:57 am
It took Durbin 30 years to soil Washington D.C.

Rauner could have done it in 18 months.

Durbin is a slacker. s/

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 8:58 am
- Bobby Catalpa -

This is preparing for the 2018 Governor’s race…

Trump will be long gone by then.

You do know that, right?

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 8:58 am
===And, oh, by the way - he embarked on this navel gazing exercise about whether to run by first kissing Mike Madigan’s ring.===

Cool. So you are saying that if he becomes governor, he won’t be alienating all the people he needs to work with. Good to know. Thank you.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 8:58 am
What ties do republican candidates for the GA have to Donald Trump? That is a real stretch there will be no ads linking them because that is absurd

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 8:59 am
Honey bear, there is coffee all over my screen after reading your comment

Comment by CCP Hostage Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:00 am
===What, Rauner’s gonna run on… ===

… the $80 million to destroy Durbin in every way possible, abc in ways Durbin hasn’t even thought about.

Don’t sleep on Rauner winning. So difficult to beat incumbent governors, and almost impossible with incumbent governors with unlimited monies…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:02 am
—
You do know that, right?
—

I’ve wondered lately if the best thing to get Rauner out of office in 2019 is to have a Trump presidency.

Comment by Bobby Catalpa Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:03 am
I just don’t see Durbin taking the plunge. Much more downside than upside. But if not him, who? Kwame will no doubt want it, but he doesn’t have the statewide name nor will he have the resources. Lisa? Nope. Bustos? Same issues as Kwame, and she’d have to leave her Congressional seat. Quinn? Please. The Democrats just don’t have much of a bench. For all the vitriol spouted against Rauner on this blog, the fact remains that you can’t beat someone with no one.

Comment by phocion Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:04 am
Rauner makes a great case for dramatically upping the taxes on the super rich. It might crimp their style a bit when they feel like buying our democracy.

Comment by kimocat Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:04 am
===I’ve wondered lately if the best thing to get Rauner out of office in 2019 is to have a Trump presidency.===

Midterm elections are usually tough on the party that holds the White House.

I don’t want or need Trump as POTUS. Honest.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:06 am
I don’t see Durbin running against Rauner. I have a feeling he will be part of Hillary’s cabinet.

Comment by Mama Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:09 am
I would love to hear Senator Durbin’s version of a Turnaround Agenda. So far crickets

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:09 am
There is one dem who could beat Rauner without the money resources and despite his age- Jesse White

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:09 am
When does Lisa Madigan start her pretend campaign for governor? And when do everybody — Kwame, L. Madigan, and Durbin meow and bow out — and then leave the field wide open for a second Rauner term?

We’ll get some weak dem challenger — and then despite everything Rauner has done, he wins — and gets to do it again.

The script is pretty clear. The timing is the only thing that isn’t.

Comment by Bobby Catalpa Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:11 am
“I would love to hear Senator Durbin’s version of a Turnaround Agenda. So far crickets” So you’re dinging a guy who isn’t even running for Governor for not having a plan for when he’s elected?

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:16 am
He is most certainly entertaining the notion of running for Governor. He could rule it out but he has not. Other than bashing Rauner, what are his solutions? As far as the absurd Trump rhetoric trying to tie him to Illinois republicans will democrats be asked if the think Hillary is honest and trust worthy? It would be nice to get them on record before a potential October surprise

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:23 am
We’re about 19 months away from the primary. A candidate can make up for a lack of immediate name recognition by having a solid story to present to voters and a campaign infrastructure to back it up.

After all, how well was Bruce Rauner known statewide in Aug. 2012?

Comment by John Gregory (ex-IRN) Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:23 am
=== A candidate can make up for a lack of immediate name recognition by having a solid story to present to voters and a campaign infrastructure to back it up.===

Yep.

Then again, facing $80 million to tear it down at every turn while introducing yourself won’t help.

Rauner faced none of that, but Rauner’s Democratic opponent(s) will be inundated with money that will make what Quinn faced seem like tip money…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:26 am
I question at some point whether businessman Rauner decides that it’s not worth committing his vast personal wealth to remain as Governor.

Comment by Stones Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:28 am
===it’s not worth committing his vast personal wealth to remain as Governor===

Meh. This is Monopoly money to him, man.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:29 am
Rauner is done…. anyone with a D beside their name except Quinn can beat this guy

Comment by austinman Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:30 am
===anyone with a D beside their name except Quinn can beat this guy===

I would remind you that many were saying Quinn would have an easy time of it just two years ago.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:31 am
“I would love to hear Senator Durbin’s version of a Turnaround Agenda. So far crickets”

Hilarious. Rauner was elected without disclosing his “Aboutface Agenda.” In fact, he offered no policy specifics. He ran on how bad Quinn was. He defined the new gubernatorial campaign: no specifics, no proposals, just “everyone other than me is corrupt”

Even in traditional campaign mode, why on earth would anyone offer their own ‘turnabout-heave-to agenda’? Never give anyone the opportunity to pick at you in the specific.

Comment by Springfieldish Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:31 am
===anyone with a D beside their name except Quinn can beat this guy===

Nope. No way.

Rauner is not only formidable, he’s the leader in the clubhouse and the course is closed right now…

Rauner is going to be a huge ask to defeat. Huge.

Now, this November… Vote Accordingly might help.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:33 am
Okay, I’m a political neophyte admittedly but how can any amount of money overcome the clear and present damage that Rauner has caused? 19 is a long time to be faced with the increasing awareness/perception/reality that our State is collapsing and it happened on Rauners watch. I mean really. It’s like what is happening to Brownbacks support in Kansas. His legislative supporters were just knocked out in the recent primary.

Nothing is being built and ALL is being destroyed.

At some point that can’t be hidden and will be easily attributable.

And not to Madigan.

As my esteemed peer says, “Governors own”

I don’t think money can overcome what is obvious and apparent.

Thus the massive amount of perfidy already.

The lie is bulging at the seams and leaking out.

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:42 am
===Nothing is being built and ALL is being destroyed.

At some point that can’t be hidden and will be easily attributable.

And not to Madigan.

As my esteemed peer says, “Governors own”

I don’t think money can overcome what is obvious and apparent.===

It’s up to Democrats and Labor and those 1 million effected, both personally and professionally to prove the premise “wrong”

If I learned anything, Rod Blagojevich and his millions made a formidable Judy Baar Topinka less formidable in the end.

- Honeybear -, I like the movie In Harms Way and im that film that film there’s talk about facing the first threat, then heading back to sea and facing the next threat. As a proud Sailor, I know you can appreciate that, but the truth is… “one threat at a time” - this November, then head off to sea and face the next threat.

Governors own, but incumbent governors in Illinois are so very tough to take out.

Right now, there’s no threat for Rauner, but the real threat now is this November and “Operation Sam McCann”… Voting Accordingly.

Today? Rauner is leading in his race. That’s how it goes.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:51 am
I hope I’m right because I have to disagree with OW and Rich here. Unless something great happens to turn around his negatives, I think Cookie the Clown could beat Rauner. Quinn lost too many “guaranteed” Democrat votes. Those votes should return and be given to anyone who: A) Is breathing and B) Can walk and chew gum at the same time. Durbin, IMHO should win handily if he decides to run. It’s a long ways off so obviously anything is possible but I can’t see money making much of a difference for Rauner.

People want him out. The AA support that he got surely has to be all but gone at this point. Money spent bashing his opponent won’t change that dynamic. If he wasn’t so polarizing I’d agree that he could pull it off but I think his goose is cooked unless the Turnaround Agenda includes turning his unfavorables around.

Comment by CrazyHorse Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 9:52 am
Sage advice OW. My work in my local has been to tie the local races to Gov. Rauners willful destruction of our state. Thus it looks as if I am focusing to far ahead. I will always accept and utilize your constructive critique. Every time you write a response to me I take it extremely seriously. My work has been to highlight the destruction to “let suffering speak” to “let victims be visible” to show causative intent to Rauner and to tie the enabling legislators to the will destruction of our workforce, social services, state agencies, educational system, and state economy, and marshal those effected to follow suit and push as one in the othismos.

But whatever, I can’t wait to watch In Harms Way tonight. Thanks for the tip and thanks as ever for the guidance. It is manna.

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 10:13 am
People appear to like unknown candidates with no experience these days. I think the Dems should bring in an unknown or unexperienced candidate to run for governor.

Comment by Mama Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 10:16 am
However, Jesse White could win if he wants the job.

Comment by Mama Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 10:19 am
- Honeybear -

Thanks as always for your kind words.

Do what you’re doing, don’t alter course, just recognize the ports and skirmishes ahead, while they may be defined by Rauner (Vote Accordingly) you’re not running races directly at, or against incumbent Rauner running for himself. That’s all. Recognize what’s real, not what you want it to actually be.

Rauner will be very formidable to say the leastest of least.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 10:20 am
–Recognize what’s real, not what you want it to actually be.–

Please call me out any time you see that. I have an active imagination which is a blessing and a curse. I can often spot things way ahead or conversely be horribly off.

I will never underestimate Rauner. I think about Riches’ advice all the time. Never take the boot off the neck. Thinking Rauner couldn’t win is doing exactly that.

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 10:29 am
Those are words of a campaign that knows it’s got a very very very small chance of winning.

Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 10:38 am
“Rauner’s Democratic opponent(s) will be inundated with money”

As we saw in two key primary races this year, money can’t buy love. As is said here repeatedly, anti-Rauner people have to vote accordingly. That means union members can’t be fooled by Rauner. That means those who were impacted and care that a super-rich person damaged a million poor, old, sick and vulnerable people–and the people who are paid to serve them–have to organize and vote.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 10:43 am
Durbin has not declared anything, but the Reps are sure acting nervous over a maybe, might think about person. They get a taste of Rauner money and the emphasis is immediately on “Mountains of baggage”. Not the massive positives of their accomplishments and what successes have been achieved. No, it is dejavu of the ‘I’ll bury you’ statement given to a former associate who crossed Rauner in a past business deal. We have the Count of Monte Cristo money. Without the Count, they must not have much else.

Comment by zatoichi Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 11:00 am
Rauner needs to destroy Durbin now so that his opponent is likely Biss.

Can’t run for President in 2020 if you lose your Governor’s race in 2018.

Let’s not think that Governor of an industrial state is the brass ring for Mr. Rauner.

Comment by New Guy Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 11:37 am
Rauner can say anything but it makes no difference.

If Durbin runs for Governor, Rauner loses.

Comment by Federalist Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 12:38 pm
Whoever the Democrats run for Governor will have to have a coordinated effort with Madigan and Cullerton in advance of the campaign. They will have to put Rauner in several places he does not want to be.

They will have to take some political risk and vote for bills that will be necessary even if not popular. Their task is to show the voters that Rauner’s claims have no substance.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 1:45 pm
Is there any wonder why I am in love with Honeybear?

Comment by wondering Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 1:53 pm
I have always like d Durbin. FWIW

Comment by Niblets Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 2:37 pm
Niblet’s, what is it that you like about Dick?

Comment by Piece of Work Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 2:45 pm
Wasn’t a fan of Quinn, voted for him.
Hate Durbin because of his total anti-gun agenda; but if the the choice is Durbin or Rauner, Durbin will get my vote without a second thought.

Comment by downstate commissioner Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 3:17 pm
Biggest criticism of Durbin should be that his family members are lobbyists living off the senators relationships. Can’t we pass a law prohibiting this conflict of interest??

Comment by Sue Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 3:23 pm
Call me crazy, but if Durbin was so inherently beatable in a statewide election, then I would have to believe that our friends in the GOP would have run better people than the political ‘heavyweights’ such as Jim ‘Couldn’t win Hastert’s seat as a Republican’ Oberweis and random guy (Sauerberg) at him in the last two times he was up for re-election.

Durbin may indeed have some baggage, but he keeps winning by double digit margins. Money may buy you a few percentage points, but it typically won’t buy you 10% from a known entity. Regardless, I have to believe that there is little chance of him running anyway.

Comment by benniefly2 Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 4:40 pm
With all of his money and no governmental record to defend, Rauner barely defeated an underwhelming field of broke opponents. He’ll have money again with a dismal record to defend. I wouldn’t put money on him. Haven’t met any voter yet who’s sorry they didn’t vote for him, but have talked to many who are sorry they did. Dick Durbin is no Pat Quinn

Comment by Truthteller Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 5:04 pm
The “broke opponents” refer to the Republican primary field

Comment by Truthteller Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 5:06 pm
Is Goldberg, excuse me, “insider”, under the impression they’ve “fixed”, or even came close on anything?

I’m not saying Durbin could win, but the lack of self awareness in these superstars is stunning, for supposed serious adults.

Comment by Daniel Plainview Wednesday, Aug 17, 16 @ 6:36 pm
Durbin at the fair this morning on the radio, ripping Trump as usual.

Funny, he never mentioned the deficit Obama has run up as he promoted Hillary, saying when Slick Willy was prez, the economy was great and the deficit was coming down. What does that have to do with HRC?

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 18, 16 @ 8:36 am