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How much more damage are they prepared to inflict?

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Illinois

* Jim Nowlan poses a very good question here, which I’ve highlighted…

Thus far the governor has been unsuccessful in his paramount objective of forcing the House speaker to knuckle under to the agenda.

The question is whether the long-term costs imposed on the state during the Rauner-Madigan conflict, such as the failure to fund higher education for a year, are worth the benefits he hopes will flow from the uncertainty of success in humbling Madigan.

Rauner appears to have broken the mold for the Illinois governorship. His backers say it had to be done to overcome entrenched failure.

Yet I have my doubts a state as diverse as Illinois can ever be effectively governed by attempted fiat.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:06 am

Comments

You could just as easily flip the question around to Madigan. How much damage will he let happen before he gives on any single issue, some of which are very popular.

Comment by m Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:10 am
Now that Rauner has gotten in the trench of a state that continues to “fail” in spite of GDP growth, I would imagine the plan is to just keep digging.

Comment by Anon Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:11 am
M- Sure, paying less in taxes is popular but how many people in social services and higher education need to lose their jobs before Rauner stops the carnage?

How many millions more need to be effected with loss of vital services?

How many more PRIVATE social service agencies need to go under?

How many billions more contracts need to not be honored?

How many of those companies who haven’t gotten paid need to go under just because they trusted that the state would pay it’s debts?

So what needs to happen before you get to pay less in taxes? Just askin.

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:14 am
This has been the problem since day one.
Rauner has no plan b.
He is an ineffectual man with no idea how to make things happen in Illinois.

You can agree with his goals, but Bruce Rauner is like a gelding who wants to be a stud. Guys like him wreck opportunities for change. He might as well just get out of the way.

It takes more than saying the right stuff to be a leader. You have to be able to deliver or the goals look like failures.

Rauner has set back the GOP in a worse way than Blagojevich did for the Democrats.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:16 am
- m -

“I’m frustrated 2, but taking steps towards reforming IL more important than short term budget stalemate.”

That was Republican legislator explaining why Rauner himself chose this path.

Also note “Private Citizen” Rauner, before being a candidate, stating how important it was to leverage.

To the Post,

As long as the Pritzkers bail out Diana Rauner and The Ounce from feeling pain or embarrassing Diana, Rauner and Diana’s “business decisions” will include inflicting damage.

Sadly.

Sadly, that is the plan.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:17 am
The Gov had an opportunity to make significant changes when he first came in.. Those that have been around for a long time know the Speaker likes to make big bi-patisan deals. The Gov chose to stay in campaign mode, make personal attacks on the 2 Dem leaders ethics and morals, and try to destroy every union.. this plan led us to where we are today.. I am a firm believer that if she had lived, Ms. Topinka would have pulled the Gov back from the extreme ledge and helped him structure a deal where he would have got some of his reform agenda..

Comment by Not Rich Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:19 am
== So what needs to happen before you get to pay less in taxes? ==

Paying off about $230B in total State debt, of which the pension debt is about half (~$111B). If we properly raise taxes now and keep spending growth in line with tax revenue growth, taxes may be able to be cut in 20 or 30 years.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:24 am
Politically Rauner is losing he just does not realize it.

He will figure it out in 2018.

Comment by Federalist Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:25 am
=== You could just as easily flip the question around to Madigan. ===

Point taken. But Madigan didn’t campaign on a promise to “shake up Springfield,” and Madigan didn’t pick this fight.

Comment by olddog Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:29 am
The answer to the question is No. Rauner has done extensive damage to the state. The permanency of which is debatable. Correcting the problems will take a real leader.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:34 am
An interesting question by Jim Nowlan, to be sure. I note Nowlan does show a bit of bias with the “humbling” language. That said, he makes an effective point.

How about the question be posed in another fashion? How far will Madigan let the state slip to out-live Rauner? Madigan may well “win” with a Rauner defeat in 2018 … only to then have to do many almost unimaginatively unpopular things to right the ship. Some “win”.

Isn’t the moral of the story in the ’80’s movie “War Games” recognizable to both Rauner & Madigan?

Comment by Deft Wing Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:37 am
–Politically Rauner is losing he just does not realize it.–

Nope, he’s totally winning. He’s nearly totally destroyed our social service infrastructure. If you think of it as highways think about 90% of local roads being nearly impassable. The major highways are overcrowded and nearly gridlocked. All the private road maintainers are pretty much all gone. Only a few spots in the state of wealth and privilege have good roads. Think of it that way.

No he has already won. WE just don’t know it.

He has fulfilled the first two steps of his plan.

1) Buy it
2) Break it (especially when he imposes his new healthcare costs on over 300,000 people and breaks our unions)

3) Sell it. He’ll easily privatize anything that is salvageable.

No Rauner has totally won. Corporate hegemony has totally won. Privilege has totally won. If you’re not feeling it. YOU have totally won.

Zero Sum Game

Everyone else loses. Period

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:41 am
>Thus far the governor has been unsuccessful in his paramount objective of forcing the House speaker to knuckle under to the agenda.

I disagree with this. Rauner’s agenda is to destroy social services and higher education while digging the budget hold ever deeper to provide leverage. He is running circles around Madigan in achieving his strategy.

>are worth the benefits he hopes will flow from the uncertainty of success in humbling Madigan

Would Rauner consider anything worth more than decimating labor in Illinois?

Comment by Earnest Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:42 am
I focused in on the last paragraph, “effectively governed by attempted fiat”. That’s a pretty damning critique from a pretty thoughtful guy.

Comment by Joe Cannon Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:42 am
He needs to take himself hostage. “Give me what I want or I’ll go home.” Then he needs to follow through when he doesn’t get his way.

Comment by Anon Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:42 am
I think Deft gets it.
Doesn’t matter which side you’re on, the question applies to both sides. Madigan could give on Comp, Redistricting and Term limits, which a strong majority of residents agree with. Rauner couldn’t hold his coalition together to get any more Turnaround items if that happened. End of impasse (at least as we know it).
Or Madigan could hold firm, Rauner backs down and effectively becomes the gelding someone referred to him as in comments and never gets anything because he lost the standoff. Back to business as usual. Takes his ball and goes home.
Or Madigan lets the state continue to implode to make it easier to defeat Rauner in two years. Then he and the dem governor spend the next four years blaming Rauner for all the tough decisions they are having to make.

So, Rauner has made it clear option 2 isn’t going to happen. Thus, it’s just as important to ask the question of Madigan. Because he will likely be the one who decides where this goes.

Obviously there’s a fourth option, good compromise work on lots of areas, fix school funding, broaden the tax base, true reforms that make both sides happy, etc, etc, but that’s just fantasy.

Comment by m Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:54 am
All are culpable. Doesn’t anyone remember the Comedy Central bit with Biss and Sandack? While Sandack point to Biss and says “it’s his fault”. Biss actually makes the point that it’s everyone’s fault.
Rauner wants term limits and remap reform, which according to IPI polling and FB are extremely popular items.
Madigan wants a millionaire’s tax and a minimum wage increase, which according to the last election, in a year Rauner won, the voting public wants, per referendum.
So far most have said on both sides they’d be willing to look at Workers Comp.
Why not swap out those 2 items as wins for each?
Place the millionaire’s tax for remap reform and minimum wage increase for term limits?
Then have the Chamber and AFL-CIO start working with a member from each party on Workers Comp? Similar to the unemployment deal.

Comment by DuPage Bard Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 12:03 pm
Mr/Ms m
the problem with flippin’ is that it does not work
Madigan has supported more Work Comp reforms, the P3, votes on tax freezes — all BigBrain “musts” but he was not smart enough to do the victory lap. The destruction to higher ed and many areas of social services will take years — maybe decades to reverse. The BigBrain might learn to be more persuasive or pick ideas that might actually improve prosperity

Comment by Annonin' Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 12:07 pm
Really no incentive for Rauner to switch positions on this. In his view, Illinois is headed down this path regardless of the actions he’s currently taking. Even with the tax hike ideas that have floated around, Illinois will continue to be in a perpetual spending deficit. Why delay the inevitable? What’s the benefit? Why not at least try to get some kind of meaningful reform done?

In Rauner’s view, it’s just not logical to give in and let the problems that got Illinois here in the first place continue. Not saying I agree with absolutely everything, just understanding the logic here.

Comment by BK Bro Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 12:13 pm
The economic collapse that mirred us in debt and did a lot of damage was caused by investment bankers and their ilk using junk mortgages and other schemes to get wealthy; furthered by the lack of regulation the GOP fought for after the savings and loan meltdown.

We just put one of the investment types who helped crash the world economy in charge of the state; why would anyone think somone who pushed practices that broke the economy would be a good decision maker?

Comment by Ghost Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 12:20 pm
Rauner wins either way. If he gets his turnaround agenda, yippee.

In the meantime: Higher education cut 30% or more, social services network destroyed in a “shake out”, and further
damage up and down the line. Starve the beast. Winning.

It remains to be seen if Republicans will be helped or hurt by their association with rauner, and the devestation to lives.

Comment by Langhorne Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 12:28 pm
- m -

Nah.

Governors own. “Pat Quinn failed”, remember?

Rauner can’t get 60 and 30, so holding the state hostage for reform is more important than a budget and social services.

Rauner has made it quite clear.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 12:30 pm
Vanilla Man - succinct and accurate. Amen, brother!

Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 12:37 pm
The die was cast, when Quinn gave away $50M to get re-elected. It’s hard to sell the social responsibility story anymore. The bad apples have ruined it for the deserving entities, of which there are many.

Comment by weltschmerz Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 12:38 pm
Now that using the pension system to give voters services without them having to pay for them has been taken away by the ISC, we need to fix the structural deficit that is so damaging. A real budget with cuts and revenue increases is essential. Rauner needs to let the hostages go and negotiate a true balanced budget. Rauner is trying to do what only elections can do…..change power in the legislative branch.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 12:47 pm
that is force his turn around agenda

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 12:48 pm
Given that things continue to go unpaid, I’d say he’s still willing to inflict damage. The employee insurance delay page shows they’ve only paid 15 days worth of claims since June 30th. Feb 20 2015 for contracted providers, Dec 05 2014 all others.

Comment by Thoughts Matter Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 1:15 pm
Thank you, m, for bringing up points that are often overlooked in the issue of the Rauner-Madigan feud. To say that Madigan is exempt from any blame in the budget stalemate because “..governors own..”, as OW often brings up, is ridiculous. Madigan could give much more on the issues of workers comp. and term limits. Rauner, at the same time, should compromise more on the union-related items of the TA. They both share in the blame.

Comment by People Over Parties Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 1:20 pm
OW-
Not sure what you’re disagreeing with, I think my option 3 clearly counts on Rauner owning. I’m not defending or praising Rauner. But we know what he’s going to do. The question posed in the article is junk for that reason.
The real question is how far will Madigan let it go.

Rauner’s whole plan was predicated on dems being unable to watch what is happening right now, thinking if they really cared, they would have to give in. The problem being that they can watch it happen, because they can just blame Rauner. Instead of voters blaming them for any of the destruction, they’re using it to get voters to support them even more, so they can keep fighting Rauner. Or in other words, the exact opposite of what the Rauner plan was relying on.

But can they do it for 2 more years?

Comment by m Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 1:46 pm
Mark Cuban is a successful businessman. Mr. Cuban wants to make money, but he is in it to help people too.

The current Illinois Governor and the National guy he has endorsed have few suitable business skills that improve government.

This is why we should never elect people who think they were good at business but have zero skills in coalition building. See Dick Durbin or Mike Madigan (D-IL) for information on how to do that.

Comment by Doug Simpson Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 1:59 pm
Both sides are in “Death before Dishonor!” Mode.

But neither of them are at risk of dying. Bad news for the rest of us.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 2:07 pm
===But can they do it for 2 more years?===

Sadly, tragically, Democrats have said there might not be a budget until 2018.

They said it, Democrats, on their own.

The reality, too, is, governors take the heat. It’s their agencies, their agendas, pet projects, their toadmap that gets judged. Rauner is banking on blaming Dems for what every governor before him, and well after him, is judged on for the job they do.

How any governor passively feels not having a budget for his agencies, agendas, programs, projects is a workable lever… that’s a major governmental disconnect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 2:11 pm
Can anyone honestly say that the Dems fascination with always spending more money has been successful anywhere. What Zillinois needs along with more tax revenue is an improved business climate. We won’t get that anytime soon from Madigan and his ilk

Comment by Sue Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 2:46 pm
Nothing more will get done this fiscal year because Rauner already has what he wants “An P-12 Education budget”.

Comment by Mama Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 2:59 pm
- RNUG - Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:24 am: -

Comment by Mama Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 3:02 pm
I feel the difference is Rauner does not care how much damage he inflicts on IL. His TA demands will not help IL financially, and Madigan knows that. Madigan cares about the citizens of IL, but he is smart enough not to lose everything he has built for IL by giving in to Rauner’s demands. There are better ways to get IL out of its financial mess.

Comment by Mama Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 3:11 pm
@Sue- Ever heard of Minnesota?

Look it up.

Paying your bills creates a “good” business climate.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 3:39 pm
I was taught that what people do reveals what they want. Actions are more reliable than words.

Madigan’s actions are consistent with a belief that the long game is more important than short term wins or losses. Giving in to Rauner’s hostage approach would result in greater losses long term.

Rauner’s actions are consistent with a belief that public unions must be broken, that the state has too much capacity in public universities, and that the social services network is ineffective. What is the harm in not funding an ineffective system?

I see no negotiated solution.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 3:51 pm
Nowlan’s premise that the goal is “humbling Madigan” and this is primarily a “Rauner-Madigan” conflict is lazy journalism, that is unfortunately common outside CapFax.

This is about achieving legislative goals (labor law changes) through non-legislative means (using budget process as leverage). However, the problem with this plan is that the budget process is not leverage. Neither is a $10B debt. Both are leverage against any initiatives the Governor has in mind.

He had an opportunity in early 2015 but blew it. It’s done.

Comment by peon Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 5:58 pm