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Still no Duckworth settlement as Sabato moves race to “Likely Democratic”

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More than a week past their deadline, parties in the workplace harassment suit against U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth of Hoffman Estates still haven’t reached an agreement. What’s the holdup?

Sources involved with the case tell me plaintiffs Christine Butler and Denise Goins, workers in the downstate Anna Veterans’ Home, have two sticking points.

They don’t want to agree there was no wrongdoing by Duckworth in the case stemming from her time heading the Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs, and they want more than the reported $26,000 compensation in an earlier agreement. […]

Judge Mark Boie has given both sides several more days to settle before he takes matters into his own hands, records from the Union County clerk’s office show.

* But that court case didn’t impress Larry Sabato, who just moved the Senate race from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic”…

Let’s tackle these in order of likeliest Democratic pickups, starting from most likely to increasingly less likely.

We’ve long listed first-term Sens. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Ron Johnson (R-WI) as underdogs in their reelection bids: Both Senate races have been leaning to the Democrats for more than a year in our ratings. Kirk and Johnson were helped by 2010’s optimal Republican conditions, but this year they drew solid challengers in Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D, IL-8) and ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D), respectively… Illinois has had very little polling, but Republican outside groups appear to have abandoned Kirk, a sure sign that they do not see much of a path to victory for him.

Additionally, Trump does not appear to be targeting either state. Of course, Illinois going Democratic for president is a foregone conclusion unless a Republican is winning a huge national victory. Illinois has voted at least five points more Democratic than the nation as a whole in each of the last six presidential elections… While Johnson has largely if occasionally tepidly embraced Trump, Kirk says he won’t vote for him. They are utilizing different strategies, but neither method seems likely to create the distance they’ll need from Trump to win reelection. (In fact, Johnson is currently running slightly behind Trump, as shown in Table 1 below).

If Johnson or Kirk recover, it will likely be a sign that the national winds have shifted in favor of Trump and the Republicans. As of now, it’s hard to see how either one wins, so we’re moving both races from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 10:33 am

Comments

Duckworth is singing, Dōmo arigatō, Mr. Sabato.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 10:42 am
“They don’t want to agree there was no wrongdoing by Duckworth”

Huh. The standard language for settlements like this is “no admission of wrongdoing” by the defendants. Having the plaintiffs recognize there was no wrongdoing, if that is the case here, takes it a step further.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 10:52 am
It’s been clear for some time that Kirk would need something far more impactful than the IDVA case if he was to make Duckworth unelectable. He’s been completely unable to articulate a rationale for reelection, he’s got Trump to lead the top of the ticket, and his attacks on Duckworth have fallen flat. Kirk is toast.

Comment by slow down Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 11:01 am
Norseman, thank you for making us laugh.

Comment by siriusly Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 11:09 am
Christine and Denise are becoming the postergirls for tort reform.

Comment by Precinct Captain Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 11:36 am
slow down-

i’m not sure why that’s clear. polling has remained tight in this race with the outlier being Duckworth’s post DNC convention-primed poll. DC sees IL as a blue state, but Kirk has strong ticket splitter appeal that is lost in the DC analysis.

Comment by peets Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 11:43 am
“Kirk has strong ticket splitter appeal”

Had.

But then he started talking.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 11:53 am
If all this is true, why is there still such a fuss over same day voter registration???? After all it’s in the bag for Hilary right?????

Comment by The All Knowing Oz Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 12:57 pm
So plaintiffs have a couple of days to agree to what they already agreed to, or the judge will impose the terms?

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 1:42 pm
===Illinois has had very little polling,===

…so we’ll just slide this over one notch and forget about it. Won’t surprise anyone either way. Both have inspired the people in the state to just not care. /s

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