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Today’s number: 304,000 jobs

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* A Chicago Sun-Times editorial…

Here’s a scary number for you: In the last 16 years, Illinois has lost 35 percent of its manufacturing jobs. That’s about 304,000 jobs, more than the population of any city in the state other than Chicago.

That number alone, cited by a business leader this week in a lunchtime speech before the City Club, tell the story of our state’s poor business climate and sputtering economy. It sounds an alarm. It reminds us once again — if anybody still needs reminding — that our elected officials have failed us miserably and time is running short to set things right. […]

Manufacturers “aren’t necessarily fleeing the state in droves, although many have left,” [IMA President Greg Baise] said. “Instead, when expanding, they do it in other states because they can be more successful.”

In a number of earlier editorials, we have placed much of the blame for our state’s political paralysis on Rauner. The new governor promised to roll right over the evil opposition — that would be House Speaker Mike Madigan — but never had the votes. We still put the bulk of the blame there. All that counterproductive tough talk has left Illinois with nothing but $10 billion in back bills.

But the governor no longer insists on most of his vaunted “turnaround agenda” of pro-business reforms before he’ll agree to a tax increase and other measures, and there is no doubt the Democrats can and should meet him part way. He is right that our state’s business climate is competitively weak. Give the guy something real. Further tweaks to worker’s comp — when and how much an employer must pay a worker who is hurt on the job — would be an excellent start.

Thoughts?

…Adding… Some of the more ridiculously partisan commenters here are forgetting something I posted just the other day from Baise’s speech…

Just remember as you leave, in the last seven years….

Wisconsin created 44,100 manufacturing jobs
Ohio created 75,900 manufacturing jobs
Indiana created 83,700 manufacturing jobs and
Michigan created 171,300 manufacturing jobs.

Illinois created 4,600 jobs. Even Idaho created 9,100 manufacturing jobs. A state better known for its potato farms.

Idaho created twice as many manufacturing jobs.

Idaho.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:24 am

Comments

How many jobs have been lost due to the pile of unpaid bills?

Comment by Soccermom Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:26 am
Soccermom, I doubt the state government owes much money to manufacturers.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:27 am
This problem can’t be wished away, or blamed on one guy or one party. It has to be tackled.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:27 am
And that whole “meet him part way” thing sounds so reasonable - until you think about what it means if, for example, someone wants to stab you to death. Should you just compromise on amputation???

Comment by Soccermom Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:27 am
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out!!!

*buries head back into sand

Comment by Phenomynous Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:32 am
I agree there has to be some type of happy medium, a meeting halfway seems reasonable, until Gov. Rauner pulls the rug out from underneath the DEMS and asks for more. He has proven time and time again, his word is not to be trusted. Ask the GOP’ers who went along with him on issues and then he backdoored them with a Veto or signed legislation they were against.

Comment by HRC2016 Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:35 am
How many of those jobs have went overseas though? Both parties telling people that “We”re going to bring jobs back to Illinois from China” doesn’t help because, I think, those candidates/elected officials know they’re lying through their teeth. Work comp reform would probably help a little bit but it’s not going to bring back anything close to 304,000 jobs.

Comment by The Muse Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:38 am
@Soccermom- I think you make a good point. While the post addressed “manufacturing jobs” only, overall employment is even more important, not just a single sector.

Without laying blame, what has the defunding of social services contributed to the employment picture? Many of those jobs solid jobs with good wages.

$10 billion could go a long way to improving the unemployment picture in Illinois.

Comment by JS Mill Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:39 am
Illinois is a hard state for manufacturing due to our high workers comp costs (and no it’s not the insurance industry who is causing this, self-insured companies still have the same high rates) and our high property taxes are another huge hurdle for manufacturing. We might want to consider some kind of special property tax assessment for manufactures especially since they don’t really increase local government services and tend to be a wealth generator for a community.

In general we have a terrible jobs mindset in Illinois, our “policy” decisions are based upon keeping a few people in power, not creating jobs and financial stability.

Comment by Ahoy! Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:40 am
Not a lot of support for meeting halfway on this blog. Sigh.

Comment by phocion Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:40 am
Companies, many quietly, are moving jobs to TN, Texas, Florida, etc.

Not much appeal and benefit to stay in Illinois.

This state is an absolute mess financially and the solution is always—raise real estate taxes, raise income taxes, raise sales taxes.

Comment by Piece of Work Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:41 am
I’m not inclined to give politicians a pass, especially Illinois politicians, those poster children for bad governance, but I wonder how much of this job loss is connected to trends such as globalization and technology-AI, robots, and so on.

But assuming that some of the loss is due to other states being perceived as more attractive to business. Do we lower taxes on business, thus shifting more of the burden to individuals. Or lower taxes and reduce services. How much are we all willing to pay in additional taxes or lost services in order to keep and attract these businesses. Keep in mind that the trends above-globalization and tech, may cause them to leave or reduce personnel anyway.

Comment by Cassandra Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:43 am
The loss of jobs and higher cost of workers’ compensation have a common denominator - wages. We lose jobs to other states because of higher wages. Our workers’ compensation costs are more because of higher wages.

So while it’s easy to say, we have to be able to “fix” workers’ compensation and keep more jobs in this state, the real issue is whether or not we’re willing to compete with lower wage states (and countries).

Comment by pundent Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:44 am
I agree Phocion……seems very much about doing only what the Dems want and see as best for the state, even though job creation isn’t their strong suit. Even Soccermom who ususally seems pretty middle of the road and reasonable isn’t biting on the meeting halfway approach.

Comment by cgo75 Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:45 am
===And that whole “meet him part way” thing sounds so reasonable - until you think about what it means if, for example, someone wants to stab you to death. Should you just compromise on amputation???===

I agree. Mike Madigan wants to kill the tax payers of this state, we shouldn’t meet him part way,

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:45 am
If a small give on WC is all it takes for peace, then the TA and Rauner’s governorship have truly crashed and burned. More likely this is just more salesmanship to appear reasonable, leading to bigger gives. Also, if a small tweak us all it takes to save manufacturing, then they were not in trouble in the first place. More likely, it is global issues combined with incentives from other places that are the bigger causes.

Comment by Simple Simon Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:46 am
==what has the defunding of social services contributed to the employment picture?==

True, but aren’t those jobs pretty much funded with tax dollars? Manufacturing jobs create a tax base by which we can improve the funding those social services or reduce the reliance on them.

Comment by City Zen Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:48 am
It’s about the same percentage as the nation’s

Comment by illinois manufacturer Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:50 am
While Rauner’s job creation plans aren’t all that impressive, the Democrats don’t seem to have any plans, other than maintaining wages and benefits of public sector workers. They need to come up with better proposals than Rauner, or, in the case of workers comp, some concrete changes.

Comment by Sir Reel Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:52 am
To the Post,

This editorial is well done, well intentioned, but well off the mark in marrying what has/d transpired and well off the mark on the political and personal tacts the Governor has taken, “poisoning” the well almost immediately after an obvious inroad existed.

Lest we forget the 7-figure “blame Madigan” ad campaign… during session.

How about the “we say things but we all know… ” schtick publicly railing on Madigan and at times Cullerton with “corrupt” thrown about at every turn… but… everyone knows that’s not going to poison personal relationships.

Throw in Gonzalez, the “relationship” with Dunkin and the fallout with Dunkin and the (honestly) genius manuver by the governor to stave off overrides.

My point?

You can’t continually hand a partner an olive branch dipped in poison and littered with thorns. You can’t have lieutenants disparage the other side with vigor and venom and say “this is all bluster”. You also can’t make clear there are indeed hostages, and then choose to sit idly by and follow your own words years before and pretend this situation isn’t engineered.

What needs to be “done” is what this editorial states, and I’d go much further and go to the list Rich Miller posted as an important road map and starting point for both parties to find commonality.

But, the Governor needs to realize being a partner means stopping the “corrupt” vile language publicly. The governor needs to accept “wins”, build credibility, and incrementally change expectations as successes build.

There needs to be want for a passable budget. Both sides need that want and expectation that a budget is vital to governing, while the want of an agenda is just that, a want, not a required function, like a budget.

Democrats?

Start showing a desire for ending the stalemate. Publicly. As with Pat Quinn and every governor before, “governors own”, but that’s little solace to people depending on the state having stability, and that includes manufacturing.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:55 am
===Mike Madigan wants to kill the tax payers of this state, we shouldn’t meet him part way,===

You’re not helping. Honest.

Taxpayers is NOT the pivot to compromise.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:57 am
Again with the false and complete utter BS that the Democrats are clamoring for a tax increase and must “give up” something in order to get it.

The state desperately needs revenue. Not democrats. Not republicans. Not the governor, but the STATE. The second the governor proposes a balanced budget, then I think it would be fair to horse trade portions of the TA agenda for actual democratic priorities. Maybe higher minimum wage, better funding for something… I don’t know.

But to continually argue that dems desperately want taxes is just fantasy land, and drives me nuts.

Comment by Delimma Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:58 am
Government doesn’t create jobs outside of government. It only sets the business climate. My plan would involve paying our bills first, providing reasonable education and infrastructure, and being reasonably financially prudent. That is better than trying to become Mississippi. Dems have only done part of that over the last few years. Repubs have done none of it.

Comment by Simple Simon Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:58 am
===…but aren’t those jobs pretty much funded with tax dollars? Manufacturing jobs create a tax base by which we can improve the funding those social services or reduce the reliance on them.===

So hold social services hostages, “squeeze the beast” as an “intended consequence” in the meantime?

Not the way to run a railroad.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:59 am
California ranks in the highest of work comp costs and has 1.2 million manufacturing jobs.

Comment by Trolling Troll Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 9:59 am
In the Tribune editorial board debate between Leslie Munger and Susan Mendoza, Ms Munger stated that the average claim for workers comp in Illinois was $32,000 vs $16,000 in California.

California is probably the most regulated state in the nation and is completely run by Democrats.

States like New York run national ad campaigns touting their tax incentives to bring business to their state.

In Illinois, the Speaker and the Democrats tout their support for “working families” but they are hostile to the private sector employers who they work for. The results speak for themselves

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:00 am
I agree with Rich. This has to be tackled. This problem goes far beyond the state’s failure to have a budget in place. We are going on almost 2 decades of manufacturing declining in this state. We have the talent and resources to be in the top tier. We just need to put politics aside and put good policies in place. WC reform has to happen if we are going to turn these numbers around.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:00 am
I like maufacturing jobs too but this is a national loss.It has nothing to do with Illinois….so like Baise it’s just higher jaber

Comment by illinois manufacturer Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:02 am
I agree that workman’s comp reform is needed and I think it could be achieved. Some months ago when asked if a workman’s comp compromise could lead to a bigger compromise on a budget, Senator Radogno referred to workman’s comp as low hanging fruit. What I read into that is that it will take more than that to pacify Rauner and his allies.
I would add that the US has lost 5 million manufacturing jobs in the last 16 years. Basically Illinois has lost 6% of the nation’s total of lost manufacturing jobs though Illinois only comprises 4% of the nation’s population. A little more than you might expect but the point is the entire country has lost a lot of these jobs because of the cheap labor that exists overseas. I don’t think the solution lies in paying people who are in the low end of the middle class a lower salary than they are already making. I believe that’s the big sticking point in this impasse.

Comment by The Dude Abides Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:02 am
Two points. First, state government has a much smaller affect on business investment decisions than people want to believe. Corporate income taxes in Illinois couldn’t be much lower and most major companies pay nothing. That said, government services such as transportation infrastructure, education, water and sewers, etc do have an impact on those decisions.
Secondly, just back of the envelope, 10% of those job losses are from the printing industry alone. Those jobs didn’t so much as move as disappear across the board and Illinois is/was a leading state in that industry. That is just one off the top of my head. So there is a lot of nuance in how the composition of economy has changed over that period.

Comment by not so simple Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:04 am
Deliimma - Democrats proposed a budget with record spending and a 7 billion dollar deficit.

Yet you say they don’t want desperately to raise taxes. They can’t have it both ways- record spending equals record taxes.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:08 am
No problem A. Of those laid off factory workers can get jobs with the State

Comment by Sue Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:08 am
I think a fifth of the plant closings based on county business patterns which shows all establishments with employees..were print shops.Some small firms didn’t disappear they became self employed and moved to another data set.Finaaly EPI has done a good job tracing job loss to PNTR.China is about 2 million.Once again little to do with Illinois

Comment by illinois manufacturer Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:10 am
It’s not an Illinois story, it is a national story. “According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) there were 17,619,000 Americans employed in the manufacturing sector in January 1998; by January 2010, this figure had declined to 11,462,000, or 6,157,000 factory jobs lost in 12 years - an average annual decline of 513,000 jobs and a 35 percent overall decline in manufacturing employment over a 12-year period.”
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2015/02/09/putting_us_manufacturing_growth_in_perspective_101525.html

Comment by NoGifts Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:12 am
California also has the largest population so I would think you would have to go by percentage of population in manufacturing to get a truer picture.

Comment by Arock Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:12 am
And there are regional differences. http://www.ides.illinois.gov/News%20%20Announcements%20Doc%20Library/Metro_June2016.pdf

Comment by NoGifts Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:13 am
===Democrats proposed a budget with record spending and a 7 billion dollar deficit===

And Rauner signed a budget with an $8 billion hole and a projected $14 billion payment backlog.

Again, this ain’t a partisan issue.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:15 am
Madigan - Millionaires tax, progressive tax, raise tax rates. Look at Chicago raised about every tax and fee that they could and still need more revenue, led by Democrats, main solution raise taxes.

Comment by Arock Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:15 am
Of the lost companies, how many millions does that represent in tax incentives other states had to dole out to attract them?

Planet Money took a good look at this a few months ago: http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2016/05/04/476799218/episode-699-why-did-the-job-cross-the-road

Workman’s comp reform with teeth to make sure savings actually get passed long to end users would satisfy those folks who passed comp reform a few years back and then nothing happened to the rates.

Causation is already a boondongle, so I’m interested to see how it plays out. If you have a knee that is 100% to begin with(say arthritis, etc) but then have an accident on the job that causes major damage, I don’t think it’s fair for the company use the arthritis as a shield to greatly reduce their exposure. That’s just me…

Comment by Dee Lay Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:19 am
The problem is demand: business owners will build factories when there is a demand for goods. Reagan’s trickle down and clintons borrow economic plans have put the American customers into a hole that could have been fixed with TARP except the congress was too polarized on what needed to be done. The GOP will not concede that trickle down doesn’t work and the Dems were to afraid to stand up for what needed to be done.

Banks were failing because they had over extended there debt burden. The loans they were writing were banked on future growth of wages that never materialized and consumers could not keep up in the Clinton borrow economy so they changed laws to allow riskier loans to extend further out.

When it collapsed the opportunity was there for th government to step in and say “no more” you can extend such debt on the people. Instead of securing the 1% investments the government should have bought out the consumer debt and student loan balances at 55 cents on the dollar. Roughly at the time 700billion. Each consumer would have been given the offer to clear their debt and pay 3% more in their tax rate for 10 years. Banks would have the capital to secur themselves and consumes would have real buying power, not credit. With increased buying power people buy products creating a demand which leads to manufacturing jobs

The margins would be great enough that businesses would not need to send manufacturing jobs to foreign low wage workers.

At the same time the lending laws would have to changed back to the protections set after the Great Depression to make sure we would not bubble and bust, which I believe we are doing today. When will the next bust be?

Comment by Publius Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:19 am
“Further tweaks to worker’s comp — when and how much an employer must pay a worker who is hurt on the job — would be an excellent start.”

Democrats tried to do this, but Rauner wouldn’t accept it. Rauner doesn’t want doable reforms.

Plus, other states aren’t trying to strip collective bargaining rights, and they’re fine.

Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:20 am
Understood on the stop gap Rich but Rauner’s proposed budget was 4 billion out of sack and the Democrats 7 billion.

Rauner wants to shrink government at the state level and consolidate local governments to freeze property taxes.

Democrats are resisting so unfortunately it is partisan

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:20 am
I firmly believe our elected leaders don’t care about these numbers.

Comment by Not It Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:22 am
Judging from the lack of quality of some of the partisan responses here, I think everybody needs to click this link before commenting further: https://capitolfax.com/2016/09/02/how-partisans-internalize-facts/

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:23 am
How many of these job losses are to automation? The US manufactures more goods than ever, yet manufacturing employment is much lower. Looking at National Association of Manufacturers numbers, IL’s manufacturing output is at least 25% higher than in 2000 (unfortunately they don’t say if these are inflation-adjusted charts).

Take this fully automated plant in Buffalo Grove - I’m sure it employs a fraction of the workers a similar plant 20 years ago would have. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCgnWqoP4MM

That can’t be explained away by trade or race to the bottom policies of neighboring states. We need policies that look forward, not try to recreate a long gone past. I think the manufacturing debate in this state (and country) is stuck in the past, trying to recreate something that’s never going to come back the way it was.

Comment by ChicagoVinny Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:23 am
=It has nothing to do with Illinois=

From earlier this week…

https://capitolfax.com/2016/08/30/todays-number-4600/

Comment by Robert the 1st Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:24 am
Sir Reel, It hasn’t nor can it be demonstrated that wages and benefits of public sector workers are mostly responsible for the state’s current financial situation, yet the diminishment of such is the number one target of Mr. Rauner’s T/A. Mr. Rauner’s obsession with eliminating collective bargaining for public sector workers (and diminishing the influence of trade sector unions through efforts to permit localized “right to work” laws) has not been supported by any documentation demonstrating that the State’s fiscal position will improve if his proposals would be implemented. As a taxpayer, you’re getting great value with respect to the State workforce as IL has fewer State employees per capita than almost every state and compensation adjusted for required education per position in IL is near average. Spend a day with a DHS Human Services Caseworker, HFS Family Support Specialist, DCFS Child Protective Investigator or Correctional Officer with DOC and you’ll see workers worth far greater compensation than they receive.

Comment by kitty Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:26 am
When did the Governor surrender on the TA? Next the Sun-Times will opine that Trump supports an amnesty plan!

Comment by northsider (the original) Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:29 am
===…Rauner’s proposed budget was 4 billion out of sack…===

That points to a required need of revenue.

Required.

So please stop the Democrats want. Rauner required revenue, as the Democrats did too.

Thank you.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:29 am
When Maytag moved its manufacturing plant from Galesburg to Mexico about 2000, the state lost 1,600 high paying jobs with good benefits.

But this isn’t just an Illinois problem. Every time jobs go overseas, employees’ income taxes and spending power go with them. That’s one reason Illinois and other states are broke.

Bigger profits for corporations, financial crippling of the U.S.

Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:30 am
Of course Rauner said he would raise taxes as long as we passed some badly needed reforms to make Illinois more competitive. He has been saying that for a year and half.

Democrats on the other hand have resisted reforms and by virtue of their 7 billion dollar propsed deficit want to raise taxes more than Rauner does.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:33 am
Well, my friends and I just created 5 jobs in the last 3 months right here in Illinois doing professional services work. I’m pretty confident that it pays better than manufacturing (I.e. Assembly line) work. It would be a better editorial if all job numbers and salaries were considered.

Comment by Illinois O'Malley Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:37 am
The need is for folks to work together on ideas. The problem is we have two leaders who’ve shown little desire to do that.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:42 am
From the National Association of Manufacturers:

Shows Illinois still does pretty well and actually has a fair amount of growth over the last 5 years in manufactured goods exported.

Seems to be that production is increasing, even if the jobs are leaving. And Illinois wages for manufacturing jobs are pretty high.

I think several commenters here have gotten it right - - it’s not necessarily the business climate that reduces jobs.

http://www.nam.org/Data-and-Reports/State-Manufacturing-Data/State-Manufacturing-Data/2015-State-Manufacturing-Data-Table/

Comment by Consideration Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:44 am
Hmmm. This seems real closely related to
== How partisans internalize “facts” ==

Everybody trying to make their point cherry pick’s to support their own truthiness.é

Comment by sal-says Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:45 am
Everyone wants more revenue. However, republicans, Governor included, have a series of reforms that could create long-term sustainable growth by bringing jobs back to the State and increasing the tax base/taxable income in the state.

We need more revenue, and taxes will have to be raised…no question. The point I’m making, is what alernative have the dems offered other than raise taxes?

I can see what the GOP wants. I can point to items in the turnaround agenda and see how some items could spur growth, without “decimating the middle class”.

Give it a shot. What is the obsession with maintaining the policy status quo? Because the manufacturer’s points above obviously show that what we are currently doing isn’t working…

Comment by Phenomynous Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:47 am
===…as long as…===

Nope. Requirements are things you can’t have conditions.

I’m done feeding you, “as long as” is counter to your own admission that Rauner requires revenue. Willfully ignorant.

To the Post,

Illinois is NOT a victim to a global economy when Idaho created more manufacturing jobs and percentage-wise made a much greater dent in its population than Illinois did… with an anemic 9,100 jobs.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:48 am
Our state is strongly affected by the national trends. Still there are things we are physically capable of doing.

I don’t see how we do anything without trust. And I don’t see how we get to trust with Rauner in office.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:48 am
ChicagoVinny touches on the issue of our time. The rate of current tech disruption of jobs is unprecedented in the modern era. Find the reporting on the Atlantic Monthly website for far better coverage of this than I can give here. That said, North Carolina did a good, largely bipartisan “long game” to increase manufacturing there, which in large part included spending more on *and* reforming education.

The surreal state of affairs in Illinois is that progressives have two enemies: the 1%ers who control the GOP and the unions whose power over Democrats is at unhealthy levels. Together they have created a starve-the-beast situation where the fight is to find revenue for government workers and existing programs, making it hard to envision how we make major infrastructure investments to create a good climate for manufacturers.

Comment by lake county democrat Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:53 am
It’s not just manufacturing jobs, but it’s the population and tax base that goes with them. According to the Census from the 2010 to 2015 Illinois has only grown about 0.2%. That’s essentially no growth. Nationally the average is 4.1% and even the Midwest as a whole grew at 1.5%. Only three states, Maine, Vermont and West Virginia had less percentage growth than Illinois.

It’s not just rural population loss that has contributed to the stagnant population in Illinois. Suburban McHenry county had less population in 2015 than in 2010. The collar counties are a key component to the state’s tax base. Other suburban counties are growing, but not at the rate of the last decade.

A big part of the state budgetary problem is that the cost of services continue to grow as does the population seeking those services. But the key parts of the private-sector tax base in the suburbs aren’t growing like they used to nor even as they are in other states. This is a deep structural problem that Illinois must address. Illinois must somehow signal to employers that it is competitive and use that to add jobs. That should then get the population and tax base growing at rates that will sustain the needed revenue.

Comment by muon Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:56 am
Like with most complex issues, there is no one cause for the limited growth in manufacturing jobs in Illinois. A lot of it (technology changes, wage disparities, demographics, etc.) can’t be fixed by the government, but there are definitely things that the State could do to make things better.

My greatest disappointment with Rauner is that he has done much less than I expected to address these problems. He has largely focused on reducing the rights of union workers and done very little to address the regulatory burden placed on manufacturers.

I’m also disappointed in the General Assembly for their part in making this a difficult state in which to do business, but I don’t see them every really addressing these issues until a strong leader makes it a priority.

Comment by Pelonski Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:57 am
Gee Rich I am not sure they reade the post very well. Why do Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and even Idaho see increases and Illinois sees decreases? Wasn’t their something about business seeks low cost labor, cheap transportaion, proximity to raw materials and markets with low taxes, and material costs. What part of that does Illinois resemble? Wouldn’t we have to create these things to get Illinois more manufacturing jobs?

Comment by simple mind Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 10:57 am
CA had 1,863,000 manufacturing jobs in July 2000. It had 1,293,000 in July 2016. Still losing manufacturing there too.

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:00 am
Rich, are these full time decent paying jobs?
Wisconsin created 44,100 manufacturing jobs
Ohio created 75,900 manufacturing jobs
Indiana created 83,700 manufacturing jobs and
Michigan created 171,300 manufacturing jobs.

Comment by Mama Retired Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:03 am
But also how much tax breaks should we give to an existing business to stay in Illinois, instead of moving to another state. If I was expanding, bringing in new technology into my business, do I stay in Illinois, or go to another state that offering me tax breaks and other incentives?

Comment by 13th Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:04 am
Has everyone forgotten Speaker Madigan’s speech to the Democratic faithful at the State Fair this year? His greatest achievement? Stopping Rauner’s proposals. Trump wants to build a wall between Mexico and the USA? He should consult Madigan first and marvel at his success at wall building.

Call it a tailspin, accuse each other of moving goal posts, claiming the reformer label while paying lip service to it, claim you can’t trust the other side, call bills for votes so the votes can be used for mailers even though the bill was DOA, call it whatever you want, list whatever you want. Who cares about all that malarky when good paying jobs have been leaving this state for years and our population figures are stagnant, causing us to lose a congressional seat in Washington, D.C. every 10 years?

Illinois state government is dysfunctional. It was before Rauner took office and remains so after he took office. Blaming the new arrivals in government for problems that have been festering for decades is cynical deflection syndrome.

The time for instituting some of the turn around agenda reforms is long overdue. The Obama Administration allowed the automobile industry to trim back union power, and suddenly they are competitive again? Long term solutions that benefited everyone, including union workers.

Anybody bothering to study the turn around proposals can recognize that they speak of long term solutions that our attention deficit disorder political system can’t wrap its brain around. Until everyone gets on board with a concept of long term rebuilding and solutions, then be content with endless trivial squabbling while our neighboring states put up billboards laughing at us and the frustration grows within a state with so much potential that continues to squander it away.

I know, we will get to solutions someday. After the next election is over, of course! (snark!)

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:05 am
===how much tax breaks should we give to an existing business to stay in Illinois===

The state government here shoveled a ton of tax breaks at those businesses.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:06 am
How can you trust a leader who has thrown people under the bus time and time again?

Comment by Mama Retired Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:06 am
@ Simple Simon 9:58 ===Government doesn’t create jobs outside of government. It only sets the business climate.===

Government does create jobs outside of government, as well as setting the business climate.

Government spending on things like roads, bridges, state universities, community colleges and human services contractors create a lot of jobs in the private sector.

Equipment and supplies purchased by government in Illinois are usually purchased from the private sector.

Most government employees spend their pay on goods and services like everyone else. They pay taxes, mortgage payments, go to the store, go the doctors and dentists, buy gas for their car, pay electric and gas bills, …(ad infinitum). The money spent on a government worker very much supports the private sector. Cutting spending (or just not paying, the Rauner/Munger method) forces a lot of contractors and suppliers out of business and/or lay off workers. This has a very negative effect on the local and state economies.

Comment by DuPage Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:13 am
Like Madigan and Edgar, Mama Retired?

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:13 am
===Blaming the new arrivals in government for problems that have been festering for decades is cynical deflection syndrome.===

Nope.

Crain’s…

“By nearly every measure, the state is worse off since Rauner took office.”

- Louis G Atsaves -

That’s “worse”.

Rauner bears a great deal of blame, and I say that as “Pat Quinn failed” was Rauner’s mantra…

With job loses
With downgrades
With any “measurable” way…

===Until everyone gets on board…===

Thus, the hostages. Don’t get on board? Fine, I’ll destroy social services? Still not on board? How about closing Eastern and Chicago State?

My point?

Rauner is a co-equal branch that “owns” the bad… and the good, - Louis G Atsaves -.

I think Rich Miller had a strong list to build consensus.

Rauner also needs to accept wins without adding the destroying of Labor as a lynch pin.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:13 am
Illinois is clearly better off today with Rauner at least attempting to rationalize Illinois government. Decades Madigan and Edgar, Ryan and Blags was clearly a disaster.

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:15 am
To those that resist the Rauner’s precondition that reforms must accompany revenue, do you honestly believe any reforms would pass after revenue was increased?

No feeding of me is necessary but I would call that willfully ignorant.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:17 am
I don’t understand the belief that state governments “create” manufacturing jobs, like some kind of mercantilist duchy, divorced from the global economy.

Where does that idea come from, except from politicians’ press releases? You won’t find it at any school of economics or economists, outside of the snake oil salesmen at Arduin, Laffer and Moore.

Since 2000, the number of manufacturing jobs in the United States has declined by 5 million. In 1960, 25% of American workers were employed in manufacturing. Today, it’s less than 10%.

I blame…. Bill Stratton. Or Sam Shapiro. Makes as much sense as anything else in this discussion.

But once the state has “tackled” the manufacturing jobs issue, perhaps it can do something about farm incomes, which are at the lowest point in 10 years, due to food-product deflation.

What’s the “state plan” there?

Also, how’s about bringing those tens of thousands of support jobs back to the Merc and the Board of Trade? Those neighborhoods used to jump with saints and sinners screaming for money.

Now, a trader on his smart phone can do the same work more efficiently and quickly of what used to take ten.

What’s the state going to do about that?

Meanwhile, as we indulge in these ludicrous daydreams of state control of the economy, let’s continue to let the Springfield politicians off the hook for things they actually can do something about — ruinous deficits and the destruction of the higher ed and social services infrastructure.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:17 am
The state of Illinois has to break the incestuous Madigan/public union stranglehold. How long must Illinois be ranked at the bottom of most economic and demographic statistics?

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:18 am
Nice ignoring of the fact that our neighbors are growing manufacturing as Illinois sinks further into the abyss, Anonymous

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:20 am
All the job creators surely have social services at the top of their decision tree regarding expansion.

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:22 am
===…any reforms would pass after revenue was increased?===

Then you can’t say Madigan is holding hostages. I’m not feeding you, I’m remindibg you.

You own the hostages with that thinking. It’s not a back and forth discussion, you just owned them

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:27 am
Your naivete about the necessary horse trading to reach a budget compromise is not fooling anyone Willy.

Your “hostage” reference could also apply to the employers and taxpayers of this state whose reforms are being “held hostage” by the Democrats

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:33 am
It gets back to what are the primary causes for Illinois creating fewer manufacturing jobs in the last 7 years than Wisconsin and other states in the Midwest. Businesses like to locate to states who are on a strong fiscal footing. Illinois is one of the worst fiscally managed states and that certainly is a contributing factor if not the biggest problem. Things have only gone from bad to worse since January 2015 and that’s a fact.
We absolutely need some reforms to make it less costly for small business to operate. Rauner declaring war from day one on the folks that he needs cooperation from to make that happen was obviously the wrong strategy. Sometimes the carrot works better than the stick.

Comment by The Dude Abides Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:38 am
Comrade Ron, I don’t share your bolshevik fantasy that state governments “grow” or “create” private sector manufacturing jobs. But all power to the Indiana Soviet, if it makes you feel better!

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:38 am
Illinois has the 5th highest state and local tax burden. I’m sure that has nothing to do with our terrible job growth, unemployment rate and population loss.

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:41 am
==How long must Illinois be ranked at the bottom of most economic and demographic statistics? ==

Is this what you are talking about?

- number of state employees per capita. Illinois is last.
- total state spending per capita. Illinois is in the bottom five.
- state spending per pupil for K-12. Illinois is in the bottom five.

However:

- Illinois is ranked 18th in household income, well ahead of Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana.

Comment by Joe M Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:51 am
So far, noone has mentioned Minnesota which seems to be doing rather well despite relatively high taxes and a strong regulatory culture. What accounts for its success?

Comment by JackD Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:04 pm
Except for tweaking worker’s comp, I don’t believe there’s much in Rauner’s TA that will stimulate growth in the manufacturing sector. I think state government should focus on the “bread and butter” issues that will help manufacturers in the state compete, such as workforce training, infrastructure improvements, process efficiency and advanced R&D. Obviously working towards a sustainable budget and ramping down the political rhetoric would be good too.

Comment by Going nuclear Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:04 pm
Indiana implemented a TA. Why, several years later, did Carrier Htg/Cooling and its largest supplier move to Mexico?

Comment by Nothin's easy... Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:04 pm
Why qualify jobs as only “manufacturing”? A true measure is “jobs” without the adjective. I’m sure Idaho produced more potato farming jobs than any other state. Manufacturing jobs are in the decline nationally. Lets find a true measure. then discuss the whys and wherefores.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:05 pm
Can’t horse trade a required element. Not for discussion.

Thus, why Rauner is failing.

To the Post,

Let’s remember, 60 and 30 does need to be achieved, Rauner will need to bring all those Raunerites he carries on his pocket and have them vote for things like that Rauner Tax increase and running with Rauner in 2018.

Shoulda took the heat here in 2016. Stalling this out is tough.

Dems will face social service wrath in 2018 primaries? That’s possible too.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:08 pm
Keep your head in the sand Joe M. It’s worked great for the last few decades hasn’t it?

Illinous has abysmal job growth and high unemployment. We are also losing population as our neighbors are growing.

Look at cost of living in those states and then we can talk.

And of course you neglected to address the fact that each of those states has a lower state and local tax burden than Illinois except WI. We are tied with WI.

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:09 pm
==So far, noone has mentioned Minnesota which seems to be doing rather well despite relatively high taxes and a strong regulatory culture. What accounts for its success?==

Things aren’t looking so good up there either…

http://www.sctimes.com/story/opinion/2016/08/26/states-economy-heading-wrong-direction/89300162/

Comment by City Zen Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:14 pm
Idaho has 24% more jobs in July 2016 than in 2000, that’s 130,000 more jobs.

Illinois has less jobs in July 2016 than it did in 2000.

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:19 pm
Ron, I’m sure you know that Illinois manufacturers are not taxed on income derived from out of state sales.

Take a look at the annual report of any Illinois manufacturer as to their state and local tax burden then get back to us on your taxation theories.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:21 pm
Idaho has an unemployment rate of 3.8%

Illinois has an unemployment rate of 5.8%

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:24 pm
Wisconsin unemployment rate is 4.2%

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:25 pm
Indiana unemployment rate is 4.6%

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:25 pm
Michigan unemployment rate is 4.5%

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:26 pm
Ohio unemployment rate is 4.8%

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:27 pm
@Joe

State rankings like those don’t mean much without the local tax burden taken into account. My township employs lots of folks that might otherwise be on another state’s payroll. Factor in local sources for spending per pupil for K-12 and Illinois jumps from bottom five to top quartile.

And household income rankings must take into account cost of living indexes. Indiana is one of the cheapest states to live in. Michigan and Ohio are cheaper than IL as well. Wisconsin is more expensive, but not by much.

Each one of those states has a lower cost of living index, most notably IN at #2.

Comment by City Zen Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:27 pm
Actually City Zen, Wisconsin has a lower cost of living than Illinois too. Great post though!

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:30 pm
Since 1999 the US is down 31 and Illinous 36 per County Business Patterns

Comment by illinois manufacturer Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:47 pm
Ron, you must have eaten nutty bars for breakfast if you think Illinois is better off now than 18 months ago. Even Crains agrees on that. Sad that we would even be in better shape if the GA passed Rauner’s 2015 budget that was $3B out of balance!

Comment by Simple Simon Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:53 pm
Simple Minded Simon, Rauner is the first governor in decades whose priority is taxpayers and not the coddled pension class.

Illinois is an economic and demographic disaster. We haven’t had a balanced budget in 30 years and now it’s of concern?

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:56 pm
City-Zen, re: Minnesota, the article itself notes that the study it is discussing is highly partisan (Republican) and disagrees with a contrary assessment from Forbes. Still, it does point out that future prospects are problematic although their current status is pretty good. That’s probably true for the United States as a whole.

Comment by JackD Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:58 pm
==My township employs lots of folks that might otherwise be on another state’s payroll.==

Are you sure that those township folks would then be employed at the county level - not the state level. It seems that the County and townships have way more similar services than the township and state. No township assessors - and that would get taken over by the County Supervisor of Assessments. No township road commissioners - those township roads would become county roads, etc.

Comment by Joe M Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 1:11 pm
People keep pointing out Illinois’ combined state and LOCAL tax burden. And that is important. However, mostly what I think they are upset about is the locallocal tax burden, of which the state has limited control over. Granted, if the state contributed more to K-12 education, then the local tax burden in theory could go down. However, Illinois’ state tax burden per state income tax rates in one of the lowest of the 40-some states that have a state income tax. And that very low state income tax rate contributes to why Illinois has so many budget problems.

Comment by Joe M Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 1:17 pm
==Rauner has taken in millions based on his business practice of outsourcing American jobs overseas to maximize profit by exploiting low-wage, no-protection labor markets. On Tuesday, he defended his actions, saying outsourcing was “part of our economy.” and, “No. Not every job should be in America.”==

Comment by Enviro Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 1:38 pm
JoeM, taxes are taxes. I’d rather pay more locally so Madigan can’t get his hands on my money.

Comment by Ron Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 1:43 pm
@Jack - Agreed, the report was partisan, and I did try to find the original source of their data to no avail. But there were some interesting observations (not attracting entrepreneurs or younger professionals with higher salaries). Minnesota does have the advantage of decades of prudent management that got them to this point that IL does not. Then there a lot of sociological differences between the 2 populations and the different cost obligations.

But the main takeaway is that Minnesota’s future may not be so rosy and that might be the direct result of the very same tax policies that may or may not have gotten them to this point to begin with.

Comment by City Zen Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 1:48 pm
==Are you sure that those township folks would then be employed at the county level - not the state level.==

I wish I knew. My township employs numerous folks for social services (youth, senior, etc). When I cross-reference against other states with townships, I rarely see those services offered at that level. Would these be state employees otherwise? Maybe county? Hard to tell.

Comment by City Zen Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 1:57 pm
Ron, I believe in paying debts, so expenditures must be matched by taxes. Kudos to Quinn for raising taxes and paying down debt. Too bad he failed to restrict spending, or we would be in good shape today. Boo to Rauner for neither raising taxes nor restricting spending. Not even a partisan can defend his budgets.

Comment by Simple Simon Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 3:11 pm
I am impressed with how many commenters strained to come up with some reason to ignore this problem… think of the push-back if Rich had gone on to actually suggest a set of changes to improve it!

It’s what the cognitive scientists call confirmation bias—once your mind is made up, you filter everything to confirm what you already believe. Everybody does it, most of us more rather than less.

Comment by Harry Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 4:16 pm
===strained to come up with some reason to ignore this problem===

It’s why I deliberately put up the partisan news post before this one, but it still didn’t work.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 4:20 pm
Harry, what is the average salary of these new manufacturing jobs in these states?

Comment by Illinois O'Malley Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 4:29 pm