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Poll: Clinton up by 18 points, voters displeased with choices, Trump not doing well in collars, lags Downstate

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Illinois
Polls

* Reboot Illinois…

Illinois voters were asked for whom they would vote if the election were held today and 51 percent supported Clinton, 33 percent preferred Trump, Johnson got just over 4 percent and Stein polled a bit more than 1 percent.

* And then they asked voters if they’d like other choices. 38 percent said yes…

More than 44 percent of Republicans surveyed said they’d prefer a different candidate, while only 26 percent of Democrats wanted a new nominee and 51 percent of independents wanted new presidential contenders. Men wanted a new nominee more than women by a margin of 12 percentage points, 46-34.

Both obviously have their intensity problems.

* But check this out…

The results show Clinton has done a better job of solidifying her base than Trump. Clinton wins the support of 84 percent of those who say they are Democrats, while Trump has the commitment of 74 percent of those who identified themselves as Republicans.

As expected, Clinton polls best in Democratic Chicago, but also does well in suburban Cook and the collar counties. Trump, though, garnered more than one-third of the support of collar county voters. His strength is in downstate Illinois, but he still falls short of winning 50 percent support in that region, where more than 12 percent of voters remain undecided.

“The only area of Illinois Mr. Trump enjoys a lead is downstate–and the further south of I-80 you travel, the stronger he leads,” Durham noted.

Trump’s only getting a third of the collar county vote and he isn’t at 50 Downstate? That ought to send shivers down some GOP spines.

* Methodology…

This poll was conducted on 09/12/2016 among 955 registered voters using both automated (recorded) on landline phones and live interview calls to cell phones. 40% of the responses came from cell phones. Margin of error is ±3.17%.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 6:29 pm

Comments

“[The Republican presidential nominee] garnered more than one-third of the support of collar county voters.”

Oof… That’s gonna leave a mark.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 6:36 pm
“Both obviously have their intensity problems.”
44% of Rs want someone new vs. 26% of Dems. that’s a pretty big difference.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 6:39 pm
At age 72, old Blue (and the Mrs.) Have yet to take part in a political phone survey. Am I the exception or the rule?

Comment by blue dog dem Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 6:41 pm
The micro districts where Z and his Crews are trying to pick off HDems will be “pleased” to hear the farther south ya go, the better Trump does.

The collars? Yikes.

I’d bet with $16-20 million invested, the Raunerites know the “score”.

It’ll be up to Z and the Crews to bail out the Rauner types where they can.

Wonder what Munger-Mendoza looks like about now in a snapshot.

Where o where are the Munger ads and her monies to get up on the Tee-Vee?

It’s September 13th. Munger hasn’t run statewide. Neither has Mendoza.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 6:42 pm
Where’s them GOP tradesmen/ women 2nd amendment , Pat Buchanon Lunch Pail Republicans ??? Used to be big money from labor ? Crickets crickets crickets !!!! Lol

Comment by Railrat Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 6:49 pm
With Obama campaigning for Clinton between now and November, the numbers will increase for Democrats statewide.

Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 6:54 pm
I don’t know, but I suspect that the President will be in every major city in every swing state.

Comment by steves schnorf Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 6:59 pm
- Railrat -

The trades seem to know to Vote Accordingly…

Be it Trump, Rauner…

It’s not the ILGOP anymore.

Raunerism! It’s Raunerism…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 7:01 pm
I agree. Us trades need to back Trump and can ONLY hope he can undo the labor killing deals of TPP and NAFTA. Signed by Clinton and being endorsed by Obama.

Comment by blue dog dem Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 7:14 pm
More bad polls for Bob Dold…

Comment by lake county Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 7:20 pm
sorry “rinOW” obvious youre not a tradesman/women union I doubt also

Comment by railrat Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 7:30 pm
===”rinOW”===

That’s fun! lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 7:36 pm
That trump has over 20% in the polls is terrifying.

Comment by Ron Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 7:54 pm
Schnorf:

Hope Obama shows up in Chicago to remind folks all the times Kirk voted “No” and in St. Louis to remind folks of all the times Kirk was with him.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 7:56 pm
Blue dog dem not actually supporting a dem… such a shock…;)

To the poll… Gosh I hope….

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 8:06 pm
Ducky. I used to vote 90-10 dem. Now a split ticket. Hard to find good someone decent to vote for. Quite honestly, if you thtow out the social issues, I find NO difference in the two parties. They all talk a good game, but that’s usually all it is. Talk.

Comment by blue dog dem Tuesday, Sep 13, 16 @ 8:10 pm
And a new poll out today shows Trump up 5 in Ohio. That is what counts!!

Comment by Piece of Work Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 7:27 am
===Trump up 5 in Ohio. That is what counts!!===

That’s not helping Rauner or the Raunerites in Illinois.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 7:44 am
Willy, not much will help Illinois. MJM, your table is ready. Compromise is a good thing.

Comment by Piece of Work Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 7:52 am
- Piece of Work -

If Trump sinks the Raunerites, and the Democrats keep control, reforms still need 60 and 30 that Raunerites don’t have.

Math is hard.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 7:54 am
… and by reforms, Raunerites mean… destroying social services and labor… those “reforms”, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 7:56 am
“Quite honestly, if you thtow out the social issues, I find NO difference in the two parties.”

And, quite honestly, if your aunt something something she’d be your uncle.

Except for the stark differences, there’s no difference!!1!

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 8:02 am
Willy, I get the math. The ship known as the state of Illinois has sailed. What will bring it back? State income tax of 6-7%? What happens when the next recession hits? Can the city of Chicago keep raising real estate taxes and sewer/water taxes?

Comment by Piece of Work Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 8:03 am
===What will bring it back?===

Closing state universities?

Lowering wages?

Forcing social services to fold?

=== State income tax of 6-7%?====

Bills and pensions were being paid before the roll back. Keep up, please.

Any Rauner Tax will be reflection of Rauner asking for a roll back of income tax.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 8:09 am
Willy, the state income tax was scheduled to sunset at the end of ‘14. The dems did that.

Please keep up.

Comment by Piece of Work Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 8:12 am
Rauner asked for it as Governor-Elect.

Rauner thanked the GA for rolling it back.

Rauner also owns the roll back by wanting, asking, and thanking the General Assembly.

I can show you where, I assure you, lol.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 8:13 am
To bring this back to the Post…

With the margin of 18 percentage points and Trump below 50% downstate, the narrowing of “Fire Madigan” and “Trump-Pence” might be too small of a subgroup to propel candidates in the Collars and in an overall downstate strategy?

Micro might be narrowing too…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 8:17 am
Anyone else got caller ID? This might effect polling.

Comment by weltschmerz Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 8:37 am
Yep. Caller ID. This is the time of year when we just don’t pick up the phone during the dinner/early evening hours. Just about all of our personal calls come on cell phones anyway.

Well, we’ve answered a few and played the game once or twice. But 98 percent of those unknown calls just don’t get answered.

Comment by Southern Dawg Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 9:13 am
Willy, who scheduled the 67% state income tax to sunset on 12/31/14?

Comment by Piece of Work Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 10:36 am
===Willy, who scheduled the 67% state income tax to sunset on 12/31/14?===

Rauner thanked them for letting it sunset, as Rauner asked… But already know that. Rauner wanted it. Rauner got it. Rauner thanked the GA.

lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 10:55 am
Thank you for not answering the question. Blame it on the dems, they should not have let it sunset but they did it for political purposes. Rauner believed he could bring the parties together to have some sort of increase above the 3.75% but not 5% and get some of his items passed. Hasn’t happened, you can thank your buds MJM and Cullerton.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 10:59 am
===…you can thank your buds MJM and Cullerton.===

Like Rauner did after the sun setting?

I’ll leave it there, thanks.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 11:10 am
When you keep digging the hole deeper Willy, you should stop. You know that and thankfully you did.

Be happy your Cubs are about to win the division. Pray no Billy Goats walk by Wrigley.

Comment by Piece of Work Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 11:48 am
I stopped because you can’t refute the point. You know that.

Good day.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 14, 16 @ 11:50 am