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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
The Republicans have been saying behind the scenes that they have put four Democratic state Senators “on the bubble”—Tom Cullerton in DuPage County, Melinda Bush in Lake County, Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant in Will County and Gary Forby in deep southern Illinois.
Understandably, Senate President John Cullerton does not agree.
“If it wasn’t for Donald Trump maybe four would be on the bubble,” Cullerton told me the other day.
Cullerton claimed that the one-two punch of Trump and Gov. Bruce Rauner was hurting Republicans in contested districts everywhere. “Downstate, Trump’s popular,” he admitted, “But Rauner’s not.” In Sen. Forby’s heavily targeted district, Cullerton said, “Rauner’s hated down there.”
People in Forby’s district may have voted for Rauner two years ago, but, in reality, Cullerton claimed, “They were voting against Pat Quinn.” And the same goes, he said, for the contested neighboring open seat race currently held by retiring Sen. Dave Luechtefeld (R-Okawville).
In the suburbs, Cullerton said, Rauner and Trump are both very unpopular, “Maybe Trump is a bit more unpopular,” he averred. But that still works to the Democrats’ advantage, Cullerton said.
Noting that his operation only surveys contested “swing” districts, Cullerton claimed that the governor’s poll numbers are “underwater everywhere.” And while Rauner “picked up a few points” after the governor and the General Assembly agreed to a stopgap budget in June, Rauner’s “job performance is still way underwater.”
Cullerton did not share any specific numbers, but what he said matches with what I’ve been hearing from others, including a few Republicans.
And that may also be part of the reason why Rauner continues to tell reporters that he isn’t much involved in legislative campaigns, even though GOP sources say he is involved. Personally interviewing candidates to replace retired state Sen. Matt Murphy (R-Palatine) along with his former chief of staff as well as what appears to be his favorite adviser John Tillman of the Illinois Policy Institute was more than just a clue that his interest approaches granularity levels. Admitting to actually being heavily involved would result in news stories about how he’s strongly influencing specific local races, however.
The Republicans have been tying House Speaker Michael Madigan to Democrats in both chambers in their mail and in their TV ads, but the Senate President claimed “The Madigan stuff doesn’t rub off on Democratic candidates,” then backed up a bit to say he was only familiar with polling for Senators and Senate candidates. “It doesn’t work on the Senators,” he said.
But, what if he’s wrong? What if Rauner’s vast wealth and his field operation manage to break through the extreme white noise of a presidential election and the Republicans do actually pick off several Democratic seats?
Well, a million dollars spent on Chicago broadcast TV ads hasn’t managed to propel Rep. Michael McAuliffe (R-Chicago) over 50 percent, according to the Republicans’ own polling, and his margin has actually shrunk since July. President Obama won McAuliffe’s district in 2012 by eight points, 53-45, according to data compiled by pollster We Ask America. Structural presidential year turnout like that is very difficult to overcome, and that includes those Senate races.
Still, I’ve been asking Democratic operatives lately what is keeping them awake at night, and they’ve all had about the same basic answer.
Targeted legislative races can often be decided by just a handful of votes. Rep. Kate Cloonen (D-Kankakee) is the most extreme example of this, winning by an average of about 100 votes the last two cycles. Rep. Mike Smiddy (D-Hillsdale) won his 2014 race by 314 votes. Former Democratic Rep. Frank Mautino won his last race two years ago by 337 votes.
The biggest potential problem is the unpredictability of Donald Trump’s supporters. Some Dems believe his support is actually higher than the polls are currently showing.
And in any given district, five hundred (or even fewer) Trump backers who rarely vote and therefore haven’t been personally contacted much, if at all, by either side could decide to head to the polls on election day and then continue supporting Republican candidates straight down the ticket and create some upsets.
Gov. Rauner’s unprecedented campaign spending and his emphasis on a ground game along with Trump’s huge popularity with white working class voters (who dominate all of the Democrats’ contested Downstate districts) are making this presidential cycle extremely unusual and, to an extent, unpredictable. So, no matter what Cullerton says, the Democrats are worried that they may actually lose some seats.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 8:17 am
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===Gary Forby in deep southern Illinois.===
Anyone that’s not privy to the impact of the advertising down here is probably unaware that the ads they’re running in this campaign make it sound like Dale Fowler is the greatest man that ever lived (that you’ve never heard of before.)
The mailers in the targeted races are also poorly designed. Every one I’ve seen is pro-Republican candidate on one side, negative on the other. It muddles the message. The pro-claims also tend to be unrealistic or dishonest if one follows state politics even just a little bit.
Before I’d believe their claims that these folks are on the bubble, I’d want to see their polling because it feels like they’re writing their messaging in a vacuum and the fact that a lot of their mailers and commercials are identical kinda reflects that too.
Bruce Rauner is going to be the Zima of politics. Millions were spent getting everyone to try him, but once everyone got that taste in their mouth sales plummeted and people that liked Zima were mocked.
Comment by Anon Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 8:39 am
I have been afraid of this for a while. With no exciting candidate on the DEM side, it’s all about ground game and who can get their people out. It’s hard. Let me tell you as someone on the front lines in a local race and with Labor. It’s a slog. Maybe it’s always been like this with local races, but man I just feel like I’m stuck in the mud.
Comment by Honeybear Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 8:39 am
It is that silent majority Rich for Trump….won’t matter in Illinois since we are not in play but it could help those reps eetc since many of those people have not voted recently. another thing is the black are not going to vote like 08 & 12 and the young ones don’t like HR.
Comment by scott aster Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 8:45 am
I would not be surprised if Trump and Republicans do better than expected. Trump is doing much better nationally, though not so much here in Illinois.
“Trump’s huge popularity with white working class voters”
How any working class voters think this elitist and privileged insider who’s never known a working class day on his life is looking out for their best interests is almost hard to believe.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 8:47 am
I have been wondering for some time now, with Clinton’s high unfavorability ratings, whether the normal presidential election bump for Democrats just won’t be what they are expecting.
Comment by SAP Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 8:56 am
** How any working class voters think this elitist and privileged insider who’s never known a working class day on his life is looking out for their best interests is almost hard to believe. **
Same could be said for Hillary.
Republicans who dislike Trump and leave the Presidential box blank aren’t going to vote Democrat.
Comment by DGD Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 9:00 am
== How any working class voters think this elitist and privileged insider who’s never known a working class day on his life is looking out for their best interests is almost hard to believe. ==
It’s simple: they dislike Hillary even more. Think of it as the Quinn effect.
Comment by RNUG Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 9:06 am
===Republicans who dislike Trump and leave the Presidential box blank aren’t going to vote Democrat.===
How do you explain in the past GA seats that voted one way in POTUS races, but elected GA members of the opposite party?
Think on that.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 9:08 am
Just an observation. I live in a fairly solid Republican downstate county. My member of the GA and Congressman are running unopposed.
I am seeing far more Trump signs than I might have expected to see at this time and at houses that have never ever had any political signs in the 20 plus years I have lived here. Coattails?
Might not bode well for down ballot races statewide.
Comment by illini Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 9:13 am
I’ve wondered, since Trump is so controversial, how many of those polled are not admitting that they are likely to or will definitely vote for him. I suppose the pollsters can control for that to some extent, but, as others have pointed out, this is an unusual year.
Comment by Cassandra Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 9:18 am
What I worry about is the number of people that base their vote on theatrics and whom they’d like to have a beer with. That’s not the reasons to vote for the POTUS, or anyone. It’s not Honecoming King or Queen. Sure, Hillary is intrustworthy, and Johnson is goofy- but I’m not afraid of what they might do.
As for Illinois, same concept. Too many people who vote because some Facebook meme told them to
Comment by Thoughts Matter Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 9:35 am
I’ve seen one Trump sign in my area. It is in front of a local business owner’s house who I will not patronize now. Many more Hillary and Malak signs. I have yet to see a Reggie Phillips sign. However I’m not fooling myself that Hillary and Malak will win. Malak may win Charleston, however. People here are sick and tired of Reggie’s doublespeak.
And, once again, I expect the GOP to lose big statewide, no matter what they spend. Rauner is radioactive.
Comment by Chucktownian Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 9:58 am
– How any working class voters think this elitist and privileged insider who’s never known a working class day on his life is looking out for their best interests is almost hard to believe. –
Look the simple truth is that labor and the left have failed to protect the working class. Trump promises to blow up the system and that sounds pretty good to those who think they have nothing to lose. This election, to me is a catastrophe no matter how you slice it.
Neoliberalism and Perfidy, 24/7, 365 and 1/4th
Comment by Honeybear Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 10:06 am
I was speaking to a CEO of a large firm in Illinois recently, a guy whose opinion I have always respected. I was shocked to hear him tell me that Trump was the only one to vote for. I said you cant believe his BS, but my friend said that his policy’s will save American business…he wasn’t the typical uninformed voter caught by Trump’s crazy sound bites…I am concerned.
Comment by Grandpa Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 10:10 am
I would love to see Senator Cullerton’s polls that say the GA is popular.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 10:12 am
I’m watching fellow Republicans who once loudly proclaimed they would never vote Trump reconsider, talk differently or just grow quiet. The same is true for those on the far right who once loudly claimed they would never vote Kirk.
If I were a Democratic operative I would be alarmed.
The same is true with some local Democrats planning to vote for change. “We had our chance and we need to change.” Our party isn’t changing. That redistricting party line vote in the Supreme Court? Painful to support. Type of comments that have stunned me, comments uttered in the People’s Republic of Highland Park no less.
Just came back from a road trip to DC driving the turnpike. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, a pattern emerged of large homemade pro-Trump signs painted on plywood and displayed. No such evidence for Clinton. If Clinton has a Ground Game (Trump clearly does not) it wasn’t very visible. Got to see the TV ads for Clinton and Trump we don’t see here in Illinois. Those ads are pretty dumb-awful.
At rest stations and elsewhere many approached my car and were eager to talk politics (my bumper stickers on my Jeep were a magnet). Illinois Republicans are a novelty outside (and inside) our state. Trump voters there are passionate and anti-ruling class. Seriously ballot splitting anti-ruling class voters.
Anti-ruling class in a way that ought to make those in power sweat. Clinton has been around forever. Trump is the new exciting face in their eyes.
Talking to real live voters is more interesting than talking to operatives this year. If this revolution comes up short this year, wait for the results in two years. These voters aren’t going away.
Comment by Louis G Atsaves Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 10:19 am
** Republicans who dislike Trump and leave the Presidential box blank aren’t going to vote Democrat **
Yes I will
Comment by Bluegrass Boy Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 10:26 am
Just back from a trip to Egypt and saw far fewer T-Rump (and Bost) signs than I expected. Figured they would be blossoming ever where. And talking w/ Joes at the bar, found little interest in either. All anecdote, but still surprised.
Comment by d.p.gumby Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 10:37 am
Methinks Cullerton is whistling past the graveyard on this one. Liberals just can’t understand why Trump is doing so well - he’s now leading the polls.
Comment by Formerpol Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 10:49 am
whichever side runs whatever candidate, races with a candidate given virtually no profile for themselves, but who runs a campaign where they just attack the other candidate, are deeply cynical and unfair to voters. defining yourself by simply attacking someone else and telling us nothing about you is saying lots about a person.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 11:00 am
Despite the “new” unemployment rate showing record low unemployment, I don’t think most people think the economy is doing great.
Hillary’s not offered a dramatic different course than the Obama direction and resulting economy. Trump’s clearly got people in his own party scared. Just a matter of whether people are more scared of Trump or more tired of Hillary.
Comment by Downstate Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 11:18 am
=== I don’t think most people think the economy is doing great. ===
The new Census Bureau report for 2015 shows the nation enjoyed both the biggest drop in poverty since 1968 and the biggest gains in median income in half a century. And 4 million more Americans got health insurance.
Comment by anon Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 12:20 pm
A poll just released today shows Clinton up by 13 in Illinois, which is near the average.
The presidential race looks “normal” now to me, with its closeness. This is how a race might look without a Trump in it. That should worry Democrats in Illinois, that Trump, a candidate who can get away with so much that would sink other candidates, is mainstream right now.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 12:22 pm
I think Trump will do well in Forby’s district. But I don’t think it will translate into huge votes for Fowler. As Anon said, the TV and mailers are so over the top that no one is believing any of the BS. Forby is well liked. It will take much more to oust him.
Comment by dr. reason a, goodwin Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 2:04 pm
==I would love to see Senator Cullerton’s polls that say the GA is popular. ==
They poll candidates in their districts. Most people hate the GA, but love their member.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Sep 19, 16 @ 2:50 pm
On balance, Trump and Rauner still look like net electoral downdrafts for ILGOP candidates to me.
Nov won’t change the balance of power (it can’t really). But if it goes poorly for Rauner, the inevitable split between the ILGOP and Rauner becomes more acceptable to discuss before 2018.
Comment by peon Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 12:09 am
and his emphasis on a ground game
Just as with all Rauners statements, because he says they will have ground game does not mean he will actually have it.
I can only speak for what I have seen in the Metro East,
Rauners ground game is crap.
Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 9:19 am