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When the majority starts to become a minority

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Illinois

The majority of Illinois children will be of a minority or mixed race by 2020, according to projections recently released by demographers at two public policy institutions.

It’s a forecast that signals a more racially diverse America in the coming decades, as the country is expected to become minority-majority around 2043. By the early 2030s, 18- to 44-year-olds become minority-majority, and adults 45 and older reach the shift in the late 2050s, according to projections by the Brookings Institution and the Center for American Progress based on U.S. census data.

Children, however, will reach the milestone far sooner, and Illinois is among the first 18 states expected to cross the bar in 2020. […]

In Illinois, the children of first and second generations of Mexican immigrants who moved to the state throughout the 1990s are bolstering the Hispanic population, as Hispanic children are expected to make up 25 percent of the state’s child population by 2020, projections show. That same year, just under 50 percent of Illinois children will be white, about 16 percent of children will be black and about 9 percent of children will be Asian, multiracial or of another race. By 2060, the number of white children in Illinois will slip to about 35 percent, projections show, while the number of Hispanic children will rise to 36 percent. Black children will be at about 15 percent and Asian, multiracial and other nonwhite children at about 15 percent.

* The accompanying chart…

Go read the whole thing.

* This is not particularly new, by the way. From a 1996 study…

At mid-decade, the population of Illinois is just under 12 million. At the 1990 census, 11,430,602 Illinoisans were enumerated, including 952,272 foreign-born residents. From 1990 through 1994, about 250,000 legal immigrants settled in Illinois In addition, the number of illegal residents in Illinois is estimated at between 215,000 and 355,000. Thus, immigration is a major contributor to population growth in the state, and illegal immigrants may comprise as much as 30 percent of the state’s foreign-born population, most of which resides in the Chicago area.

More people leave Illinois and move to other states than enter from other states. Between 1985 and 1990, while 667,778 people moved to Illinois from another state, just under one million moved from Illinois to another state. Over the same period, almost 200,000 people moved into Illinois from abroad. Thus, the population challenge facing Illinois is not growth; it is composition. For example, according to studies by demographer William Frey of the University of Michigan, between 1985 and 1990, almost three-quarters of the net out-migration of 320,331 were non-Hispanic Whites; of the 195,654 immigrants who came to Illinois, over two-thirds were minorities.

According to the 1990 census, 74.8 percent of Illinoisans were White, 14.6 percent were Black, 8.0 percent were Hispanic and 2.6 percent were Asian or Other (i.e., including Native Americans and Others). Of the 952,272 foreign born residing in Illinois in 1990, Mexico was by far the leading country of birth, accounting for 281,651 people- almost 30 percent of all the foreign born living in Illinois. Other leading sources included Poland (80,594), the Philippines (49,119), India (40,817), Germany (39,920), Italy (33,812) and Korea (30,058).

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 10:33 am

Comments

Change is the only constant.

Comment by up2now Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 10:45 am
Whether you agree with his conclusions or not, at least 10 years ago Mark Steyn, predicted the increasing Hispanic population in the US … and argued it would be a good thing. The demographic trends have been clear for at least 20 years.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:11 am
So Mark Kirk will get home even quicker.

Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:19 am
Man o man are we going to get some payback. We deserve it, I believe. We’ve been doing some awful stuff for an awful long time.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:24 am
It opens up a whole new can of worms. So many of our laws dealing with race and Civil Rights are predicated on the understanding that whites are the majority. But what happens when there is no true majority race any more?

Comment by JB13 Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:28 am
Honeybear - Who is this “we” that has been doing some “awful stuff?” White people? If so, what do you believe is the appropriate level of “payback” for children who didn’t do anything?

Comment by JB13 Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:30 am
There were similar charts when Catholics started coming in large numbers, changing us from a Protestant led nation. Now it is hard to tell a 3rd generation American Catholic from an 8th generation American Protestant.

The question is not one of ethnicity but of culture. Do the people coming here today want to be Americans, or do they want to be another nationality that happens to live here.

One of my great-grandfathers disliked Prussia so much that he would not allow his children to learn
German. He left Prussia for good reasons and embraced America.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:33 am
HB - who is “we” ?

White guilt at its best…

Comment by DGD Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:36 am
Don’t share this with downstate GOP members, they won’t have time to read it anyway as they are busy “taking back the country” and playing to their grumpy old white bases.

Comment by Give Me A Break Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:44 am
When Scalia gutted the voting rights act I thought at the time, that since we are headed to minority status, that we might rue this day. I’m sure that black and Hispanic politicians will think of ways to disenfranchise whites. That’s an example of HB payback.

Comment by Anotheretiree Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:47 am
I see the future of Illinois, and the USA, as a true melting pot where interbreeding will further blur the lines of what we call “race” today. Few people today could take the Ancestry.com DNA test and come up “pure” anything.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 12:14 pm
Yes, the “we” I am referring too is white folk. I fully believe there’s a lot of karma to work off for the oppression we have visited and maintained against people of color. Yep, lots of karma. Just my opinion. You don’t have to take it. But my belief is that we’re in for increasing civil unrest.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 2:36 pm
Look, I deal with the horrid results of institutionalized racism and defacto segregation every single day in my work. There is no denying it or diluting it where I sit. It’s going to be a giant dose of karma.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 2:39 pm
And then again I need to restate. I feel we deserve a big Karmic dose. But in my work in a community of color, with a majority of coworkers of color, I have never felt more acceptance, grace, care, and comfort. I’m not kidding you. So I might fear the wrath of retribution for sins that I have committed and systems of oppression that I still help maintain, but in all honesty, that’s not what I think I’ll get. Forgiveness is what I can see happening. But until then I push for what atonement I can grasp.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 2:49 pm
Honeybear,

Too many abolitionists in my ancestry to buy into white guilt. Also don’t believe in inherited sin. That is very Old Testament.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 3:05 pm
Not asking you too Last Bull Moose, you believe what you want. I’m of a religious denomination that doesn’t accept original sin either. (FYI it wouldn’t be Old Testament, it would be Calvinist amongst other theologies) But I do feel that I have been a part of a system that benefits me as a white person. I am accepting responsibility for that and like I said, working towards atonement. And yes I am using very religious language here because for me it is a religious thing. Just to be a putz, I would point out that even though you don’t believe in inherited sin you seem to believe in inherited grace by virtue of your “abolitionist ancestors”. Interesting. Nevertheless, I wasn’t asking you to believe what I do.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 3:30 pm
anonymous 3:24, congratulations. That is patently the most racist thing I’ve read in a long long time. wow

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 3:41 pm
Honeybear,
Good call on the inherited grace. I thought about that after I sent the text. Don’t think I inherited grace, but am inoculated against certain arguments.

And my background is Calvinist.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 4:03 pm
“We’ve been doing some awful stuff for an awful long time.”

Like what for instance? Air conditioning, the automobile, refrigeration, the internal combustion engine? Stuff like that which causes everyone on the planet to want to immigrate here? Where do you get your self-hatred?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 4:07 pm
Traditionally in the US it has been much easier for whites to buy homes and maintain long-term homeownership than it has for people of color. There are many reasons for housing segregation and discrimination which I won’t go into here. However, I would note that the mortgage/housing industry needs to get wise to this change in demographics or the housing market will collapse. A shirking percentage of whites cant sustain this market alone.

Comment by cassandra Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 4:17 pm
= anonymous 3:24, congratulations. That is patently the most racist thing I’ve read in a long long time. wow =

I *almost* wish I had seen that now-deleted comment to which Honeybear referred. Rich, did someone get banned?

Comment by cover Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 4:17 pm
anonymous 4:07
My goodness, I don’t hate myself. I do take responsibility for my part in maintaining institutionalized racism and prejudice. And I work hard to challenge myself in that. I chose to work in East St. Louis and not Granite city or East Alton where I would be with more “white” coworkers and customers. But regardless my words really challenge and threaten you don’t they. Good ground for self reflection I’d say.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 4:36 pm
What horrible things do you do in maintaining institutionalized racism and prejudice? And why don’t you stop doing them?

Comment by Robert the 1st Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 4:44 pm
Honey. Yes, I too believe that white politicians, who have used race to their advantage, will one day have to pay for their sins.

Comment by blue dog dem Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 4:46 pm
Anyway, Honeybear… it just seems a little strange to me that an outspoken Christian such as yourself believes so firmly in collective damnation/salvation. I suppose that’s your politics showing through.

Comment by Robert the 1st Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 4:56 pm
–What horrible things do you do in maintaining institutionalized racism and prejudice? And why don’t you stop doing them?–

I have as much as I know how. However “whitesplaining” ( explaining to a person of color what they should do or how they should vote etc) was a recent learning. Thank a loving God I have many people of color who love me and gently took me aside and explained the unintended condescension of my argument. But that’s just one example. Many would label it “political correctness” but I feel my striving makes me a better, more responsive, more humble, more loving human being. Good behavior, I feel, does not come intrinsically. It is learned and refined over many years and decades. My current attitudes and behaviors evolved from a conservative stage AND a brush with losing to all.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 4:59 pm
==“We’ve been doing some awful stuff for an awful long time.”

Like what for instance? Air conditioning, the automobile, refrigeration, the internal combustion engine? Stuff like that which causes everyone on the planet to want to immigrate here? Where do you get your self-hatred?
==

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_McKinley_Jones

Comment by crazybleedingheart Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 5:02 pm
Well I’d say you’re being a bit hard on yourself. As an individual one should strive to treat everyone with respect and dignity. Certainly shouldn’t treat anyone any different and have assumptions based on something irrelevant like skin pigmentation.

Comment by Robert the 1st Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 5:10 pm
–Certainly shouldn’t treat anyone any different and have assumptions based on something irrelevant like skin pigmentation.–

I used to say that Robert the 1rst. Now I realize for me, I’ll only speak for myself, that was self soothing complicity with a oppressive system that I refused to even acknowledge the existence of. We as a society DO, I believe, treat people very differently based upon pigmentation.

Here’s a little exercise we did in seminary. If you are white use the race descriptor “white” in front of every “white” persons name. Ei “My white friend Bill said we don’t have a meeting today.” My supervisor white supervisor Sue said ___.

See if you can do it. It opened my eyes when I did it.

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 8:47 am