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* UPDATED x1 - Duckworth chances rated at 80.9 percent * Poll: Duckworth up by 5, and three quarters say Illinois is on wrong track

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In the high-profile contest for the U.S. Senate in Illinois, the new Loras College Poll finds Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth with a five-point edge over incumbent Republican Sen. Mark Kirk. The live-caller statewide survey of a random sample of 600 likely voters was conducted Sept. 13-16.

* The numbers…

Tammy Duckworth 41 percent
Mark Kirk 36 percent
Unsure 22 percent

For whatever reason, they didn’t include the Libertarian and Green Party candidates. Not wise.

* And…

Net Favorability

The new Loras Poll of Illinois asked likely voters whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates for U.S. Senate. The results below indicate the net favorability of the candidates (percentage favorable opinion minus percentage unfavorable opinion). Positive numbers indicate a net favorable view, whereas negative numbers would indicate a net unfavorable opinion.

Tammy Duckworth +12
Mark Kirk +4

In addition, 31 percent of likely voters indicated they had no opinion of Kirk, and 22 percent held no opinion of Duckworth.

“The numbers of undecided and those who have yet to form an opinion of Kirk, coupled with his net favorable rating, mean this race is not over. Add in the general volatility of this year’s campaign season, and the next several weeks could be interesting in Illinois,” Budzisz said. “That said, Duckworth holds some real advantages—including that this is a presidential election year and that tends to help Democrats in a state such as Illinois.”

How a guy can go through a high-profile Senate race and then spend almost six years in office and 31 percent still have no opinion of him is more than a bit troubling for Kirk.

* Kirk does seem to be doing better than expected in Chicago, which may be why Duckworth hit the race button yesterday…

Kirk appears to have more crossover appeal than Duckworth, as 22 percent of self-identified Democrats indicate they intend to vote for the Republican Kirk, compared to 13 percent of Republicans supporting Duckworth.

Turning to those who view themselves as political independents, Duckworth has the edge over the incumbent. Duckworth receives support from 41 percent of independents compared to Kirk’s 29 percent.

Not surprising given the partisan divide on these issues, those who approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance and/or believe the country is on the right track are more likely to support Duckworth than Kirk.

20 percent of Trump supporters are undecided when it comes to the choice between Kirk and Duckworth, compared to only 12 percent of Clinton supporters who remain undecided on the Senate race.

Turning to support within regions of the state, Duckworth has a clear advantage in the City of Chicago (54 percent to 21 percent), while Kirk leads Duckworth Downstate (41 percent to 32 percent), and in the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area the two split support nearly evenly, 41 percent Duckworth to 39 percent Kirk.

He’s been attacking Trump, so no surprise there.

* Now, check this out…

Direction of Illinois

Right Track 14 percent
Wrong Direction 75 percent
Unsure 11 percent

Not a good year to be an Illinois incumbent (although it rarely has been for quite a while).

Crosstabs are here.

*** UPDATE *** FYI, FiveThirtyEight gives Duckworth an 80.9 percent chance of winning.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 10:45 am

Comments

“Not a good year to be a̶n̶ Illinois i̶n̶c̶u̶m̶b̶e̶n̶t̶ (although it rarely has been for quite a while).”

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:02 am
“Not a good year to be an Illinois incumbent”

My take (esp at the national level) is that many people say we are on the wrong track because of the role of the opposition party, not because their own rep, their own party, or all incumbents aren’t doing a good job.

Comment by Darren Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:04 am
This is probably not being viewed as terribly bad news for Kirk. He’s always in close races and finishes a little better with late deciders. Chicago vs. Suburban turnout is going to decide this one.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:09 am
Okay, learner question. Why was it not wise to include the 3rd party candidates?

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:35 am
A GOP incumbent at 36% overall, at 29% among independents, and 31% of voters don’t even an opinion of him?

Grim.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:35 am
– Okay, learner question. Why was it not wise to include the 3rd party candidates? –

Because they will be on the ballot voters actually pick from come November.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 11:50 am
Honeybear - in 2010 the Green Party had a candidate (LeAlan Jones) who secured 3.7% in the special Senate election (to fill out the remainder of President Obama’s original term) and 3.2% in the regular Senate election (for the new term that Kirk is now finishing), and Mike Labno (the Libertarian candidate) had 2.7% in the special and 2.4% in the general. That is a huge chunk of the electorate - especially in a non-Presidential year. I can safely say that Mr. Jones had a huge impact on Sexy Alexi’s chances to defeat Mark Kirk.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 12:06 pm
“FYI, FiveThirtyEight gives Duckworth an 80.9 percent chance of winning.”

I bet Kirk is glad that he has the extra .1%!/s

Comment by G'Kar Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 12:09 pm
The fact that Duckworth is only winning Chicago by 50something% doesn’t seem to be that great of news. She should be coasting to victory in Chicago.

Comment by ChicagoNite Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 12:15 pm
I’d suggest that his trailing has nothing to do with being an incumbent, other than some of the votes he has cast that were against his base of support. Then his position on Trump, not endorsing or voting for him, but also making a big stink for others not to vote for him hurts Kirk. Kirk’s support is further complicated by Rauner’s support and vice versa. I believe this will leave many Republican’s not voting for Kirk at the very least, and may even result in some that will cast a vote for Duckworth.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 12:44 pm
I wouldn’t be concerned if I were on Team Kirk. 21% in Chicago, plus MANY undecideds. This was even before Kirk went on the air with his latest ad (I think?) The margin of error is 4pts and I think this still qualifies at statistically tied. This late in the game, it should look different, but its proof that it’s not over.

Comment by Terrible Towel Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 12:49 pm
Maybe Kirk should have read his Bible, Namely Rev. 3:15.

Comment by weltschmerz Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 12:58 pm
Another poll is actively calling now asking about prez, Kirk/Duckworth and generic congressional.

Comment by Niles Township Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 1:15 pm
Thanks guys, I thought that was the reason but I’ve learned to never make assumptions about politics. Always ask. I look stupid anyway, so there you have it.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 2:00 pm
Kirk is getting 21% of the Chicago vote. Isn’t that above the magic number Republicans need out of Chicago to win statewide? If this poll is correct, then the right wingers of the GOP who despise Kirk will be the ones that guarantee the election of Duckworth.

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 3:38 pm
“The fact that Duckworth is only winning Chicago by 50something% doesn’t seem to be that great of news. She should be coasting to victory in Chicago.”

A portion of A-As tend to decide late, but almost always one way so I don’t see that as surprising. As an incumbent, this is a horrible poll. Republicans need every advantage to win statewide in Illinois. Kirk is running in a Presidential year with apparently no real advantage of being an incumbent.

Remember, no Republican has one in a US Senate seat in Illinois in Presidential year since…Percy 72. Only Kirk and Fitzgerald have only won in off years.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 3:45 pm
Nate Stone gave Melissa Bean an 89% chance of beating Joe Walsh.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 4:33 pm
I asked several of my Dem friends, how they could stand voting for some of their party’s candidates and they showed me how to hold my nose with one hand and vote with the other.

Comment by weltschmerz Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 5:54 pm
–Kirk is getting 21% of the Chicago vote. Isn’t that above the magic number Republicans need out of Chicago to win statewide? –

Not when you’re at 29% with Independents.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 20, 16 @ 8:00 pm