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Proft also says he thinks good could come of the November legislative elections for Republicans even if Madigan remains speaker, as most expect. He says Republicans could forge coalitions with some lawmakers in a weakened Democratic majority on certain issues, such as school choice, despite Madigan.

Redfield, though, doesn’t expect much of anything to get done after voters pick between “wholly owned subsidiaries” of Rauner and Madigan. Usually a cautious academic, Redfield admits he’s become prone to ranting when he considers the post-election prospects.

“What are we really accomplishing by doing this?” he says. “I don’t know how we ended up where we’re at. Unbelievable.”

* The Question: Considering all that’s transpired during the summer and all that will eventually happen during the rest of the fall campaign, do you think there’s a real possibility of any significant stuff getting done in the lame duck session? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.

surveys & polls

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:26 pm

Comments

Voted “yes.” Not sure if it’s wishful thinking or not, but we need a tax increase, and there’s no better time to vote for a tax increase than right after an election.

Comment by Fusion Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:29 pm
Rauner will never sign for a tax increase while in office because he wants to be re-elected.

Comment by Mama Retired Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:33 pm
Voted No. We will either have a wounded Rauner or an empowered Rauner.

In any scenario, the Gov. will remain in attack mode meaning Madigan will remain his obsession and reason for getting out of bed in the morning.

Comment by Give Me A Break Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:34 pm
“The purpose of governing is to work with the other side for all the people.”

Since Rauner has no intention of governing, nothing productive will happen during the veto session.

Comment by Mama Retired Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:36 pm
Voted no — unless the Dems can hold together to override Rauner vetoes, which they’ve been unable to do in almost every instance.

Comment by Nick Name Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:36 pm
The next 3 years will be a war of attrition. What the primary showed us is that Rauner was not able to win elections, but Madigan does. The general, well we shall find out in 48 days.

Comment by Come on man! Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:36 pm
Yeah , like we are going to get something done in a two week session following a very contentious General Election.

We have had 18 months to work out the problems and issues we face and look where we are and how much worse we are than when BVR was inaugurated and we started to realize the nature and scope of what he meant by “shaking up Springfield”.

OK, social service providers, higher ed and other sectors have been “shaken up”, but where has that gotten us? And something is supposed to magically happen after the General - I don’t think so.

Comment by illini Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:38 pm
No. I wish it were yes, but after this year I am having difficulty seeing any reasonable outcome because that would require people to stop campaigning and maligning the “other side” and actually work together to get things done in a bipartisan way. They seem content to burn down the house while debating who set the fire. No one is fighting the fire and certainly no one — NO ONE — is working to prevent one.

Comment by Pawn Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:38 pm
===“I don’t know how we ended up where we’re at. Unbelievable.”===

Sorry Professor, you study this for a living. Saying you don’t know is really an exercise in “Self indictment”.

The greater the ’cause’, the greater the ‘effect’. If circumstances change with the election, even slightly, there’s a chance to see some progress.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:40 pm
I’m not expecting a weakened Democractic majority. I’m also not expecting the next two years to be any different than the last two.

Comment by Thoughts Matter Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:42 pm
When the lame duck GOP’ers have the chance to stick it to Rauner and their leadership, I think they will. Best chance to get back at Rauner for stiffing them on previous votes.

Comment by HRC2016 Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:43 pm
Both parties are scared of tough decisions and want to be able to pin it on the other. This won’t change after the election. Their main concern is doing whatever will help their party not what needs to be done for the State.

Comment by SKI Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:44 pm
Oh and I voted Yes.

Comment by HRC2016 Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:44 pm
There is bound to be something that it is in the interest of both sides to get done. It probably won’t be passing a balanced budget, however.

The article had a quote from Dan Proft worth noting: “I’ve seen no evidence of drag” on GOP legislative candidates from Trump. We’ll find out Nov. 8 whether Dan has to eat those words. In the past, Republicans attributed legislative losses in presidential election years to Obama at the top of the ticket.

Comment by anon Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:45 pm
I voted yes. Partly because continued gridlock is so damaging that all sides want to end it. Partly because Rauner will realize that even if he gains seats in both chambers, he cannot get what he wants. Partly because the Senate Democrats could decide to make Rauner’s next two years an exercise in frustration; pass nothing and confirm noone until Rauner submits a balanced budget. Force Rauner to own the cuts or the tax increase.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:46 pm
I voted no. The trenches are dug, and they’re deep.

Comment by Dome Gnome Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:49 pm
I think Madigan and Cullerton will loose some seat but they will maintain their majorities. With that said there is no doubt we need a tax increase. The question is will the Gop members and Rauner go along. Without them no tax increase and a continued stalemate

Comment by MOON Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:52 pm
Voted No, but I do have a Maybe. If there are specific bills that Rauner had vetoed that the House can garner enough for an override, especially with any outgoing legislators, then Maybe. Otherwise, it’ll be January 2017.

Who’s winnin’ the budget “office pool”, Rich?

Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:52 pm
Couple of tarantellas in a jar locked in a death grip. Pity the head does not die just the people

Comment by DuPage Saint Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 2:55 pm
MJM’s table remains ready—however he is still a no show.

Comment by Piece of Work Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:00 pm
Only if Rauner fails in the Nov elections. If he picks up more Raunerite seats, he won’t know what to do.

Comment by Winnin' Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:00 pm
No - the legislature and governor’s office have shown that significant, impactful developments, like operating with no budget, and the infliction of substantial damage on people and our state’s finances aren’t strong enough motivators for action. An election that won’t change majorities is nowhere near strong enough motivation to initiate substantial action.

Comment by Johnny Tractor Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:00 pm
Republicans delight when government doesn’t work. It proves their point, allows them to cut more government.

Comment by Albany Park Patriot Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:00 pm
The agreement where Chicago gets additional money for CPS is contingent on pension reform being passed.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:00 pm
Really? You mean our system of government actually requires compromise. Where everybody wins and everybody loses?

No way!

Boy Dan Proft…..your a genius. Glad you thought of this, because our Founders sure missed it.

Comment by Dan Sorionsione Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:01 pm
Voted no, all gloom all the time.

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:02 pm
I believe the Governor after spending all this money will realize total defeat after the election and succumb to lame duck status…but beware an injured animal, as they sometimes are the most vicious…

Comment by Captain Illini Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:02 pm
If the Dems lose their majority status, nothing will get done. Vote accordingly.

Comment by Mama Retired Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:03 pm
It all depends on how many Senate and House seats the Republicans win on 11/8. If the Senate GOP can only win a couple then President Cullerton can dig in his heels, but if they win 4 or more then things will be different as the Senate GOP can attempt to hold firm and ensure no veto is overridden. And if the ever-inept Tom Cross led HRO could win 6 seats in 2010 then I hope Jim Durkin’s crew can at least get the HRO past 50 and ensure the same kind of veto protection. I will admit that I voted “no” because the election is still far enough out that I would prefer not to handicap what will happen during 6 days in late fall. I truly believe that if the Senate and House GOP Caucuses can get out of their super minority status that some deals will be made before the 100th General Assembly is sworn in next January.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:05 pm
Voted No!
Same as it ever was……

Comment by WhoKnew Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:06 pm
When someone like Profit says “even if Madigan remains speaker” you know they are not focused in any kind of reality - and whatever they say can be ignored.

Comment by Joe M Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:11 pm
“(Proft) says Republicans could forge coalitions with some lawmakers in a weakened Democratic majority on certain issues, such as school choice, despite Madigan.”

Um, Dan….not too long ago Madigan was a rather prominent supporter of school “choice” (see UNO, charter school) until Bruce Rauner launched his war on collective bargaining, forcing Democrats and their labor allies to unite for trench warfare.

Comment by Teddy K Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:11 pm
I voted no, but they really don’t have the option of not getting something done considering the stop-gap spending plan expires at the end of the calendar year.

Comment by Saluki Matt Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:12 pm
Yes, but “school choice” won’t be one of them

Comment by walker Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:12 pm
No. Politicians on both sides of the aisle watch non-nonchalantly as the state’s universities, social service agencies, and other institutions burn to the ground. They will do nothing.

Comment by IllinoisBoi Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:21 pm
@SalukiMatt - Let’s just see what happens with that stop-gap funding. Higher Ed going for even longer without reliable state funding - exactly what Rauner want.

As a very wise man has said before “He Does Not Care” but also “Governors Own”.

Comment by illini Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:26 pm
I voted yes. The retiring or ousted legislators have nothing to lose. The re-elected have 2 years to find a story to spin.

Comment by Huh? Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:26 pm
IDK, I keep getting these mailers about people fighting for a balanced budget and fighting against tax increases, so I sort of assume something has to happen in the lame duck session.

Either that, or our politicians have started to reach a point where they just don’t care about their commitments — and I don’t mean that cynically.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:26 pm
— “Either that, or our politicians have started to reach a point where they just don’t care about their commitments — and I don’t mean that cynically.” —

Sometimes, I think that being cynical is the only thing that keeps me relatively sane. I an certain others would disagree with my self diagnoses.

Comment by illini Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:36 pm
I voted yes but the timing of anything big will be after Jan 1, 2017, and before new GA is sworn in

Comment by E town Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:36 pm
Nothing will get done.
Rauner is incapable of learning, compromise, or governing.
He is content w ongoing destruction. Starve the beast.

History will blame meek repubs for allowing this to continue.

Comment by Langhorne Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:37 pm
A post-script to my previous comment - Proft says republicans could forge coalitions to get things done. Well, they could have done so already, but because they put their employment as a legislator over the well-bring of their constituents, they haven’t, even the ones who represent state university communities. After an election cycle where one person who’s already demonstrated that unquestioning obedience is a requirement for service during his tenure, why would any republicans be tempted to forge coalitions? What’s in it for them - a well funded primary oponent? It seems that Proft may just be already trying to apply spin to what he sees as a less than overwhelmingly successful fall campaign for the republicans.

Comment by Johnny Tractor Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:39 pm
No, one one willing to own the tax increase.

Comment by simple mind Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:40 pm
Altho past performance is never indicative of future results, I would bet my bottom dollar that what has transpired to date (since the primaries were supposed to be the last big ’show down’) will continue up to the inauguration of the next Gov. — whenever that might occur.

Comment by Not quite a majority Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:50 pm
nothing will happen in Veto. Super majorities required to pass anything. No way bi-partisan budget gets passed with super majority.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:51 pm
The state needs money. Early January is tax time.

Comment by Old Lobbyist Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 3:55 pm
Nothing will get done. There will be no tax increase unless Rauner commands the minions to vote for it. Madigan is not going to put his people, who survive, on it. There is too much at stake to make a bad choice in lame duck. The campaigns won’t stop either. It’s going to be a never ending campaign until ‘18.

Comment by DuPage Bard Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 4:03 pm
Yes, there is a possibility weather it is likely or not is another question in my mind. i think the best prospect we have is a significant number of incumbents loosing on both sides of the aisle. We need incumbents loosing in mass, even ones in safe seats.

Comment by Ahoy! Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 4:03 pm
I just don’t see it. Both the men involved care little for the state in general and a lot about egos and power and winning.

Rauner won’t sign a tax increase now if he ever was seriously considering it when he’d have to spend the next two years defending it as he runs for re-elect. And Madigan won’t let Rauner have the benefits of new revenue to the budget without taking the hit for raising taxes.

I am expecting no additional budget until after the 2018 election. Please for the love of Lincoln, prove me wrong!

Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 4:10 pm
No. Don’t expect enough seats to change to affect the balance of power.

Rauner has no reason to compromise; he has been looking at 2018 all along. I think he will drag things out that long, “balancing” “budgets” by shorting higher Ed and social services, plus stiffing the employee / retiree health insurance providers.

By the time Rauner leaves office, we’re going to need someone like Richard Ogilvie to even begin to right things.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 4:32 pm
(Tips cap to - illini -)

To the Post,

Voted “No”

“Why?”

Proft is making Rauner appear reasonable, that something can get done if or whatever…

Reality?

Unless property tax relief includes significant Labor concessions…

Unless AFSCME is seen to be crushed or seemed to “heel” to Rauner…

Unless Leslie Munger wins the “Rauner Statewide Referendum”…

I can’t see either side looking for a fix that seems “reasonable”

Madigan can’t back down, Rauner refuses to back down. That’s where we are. That’s what will continue… “unless”

Voted “No”

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 4:32 pm
Nothing will get done. GOP likely to pick up a couple of marginal districts but not enough to make a dent. If they spend thirty million dollars and only pick up a seat or two, why would Madigan feel a need to cave to an extreme agenda. Not.Going.To.Happen.

Comment by Michael Westen Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 4:36 pm
I said no, but would qualify that with an “unless Madigan and/or Cullerton lose seats. If Madigan doesn’t want significant things done, nothing will get done, just like always.

Comment by LessAnon? Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 4:40 pm
Diana Rauner’s husband saved money by allowing nonprofits to close so he didn’t have to pay them the money he owes them. The man is cold. He will close universities to cut their budgets. He is governing through attrition.

Comment by Chicago Barb Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 4:40 pm
Voted no. Only see an income tax increase as “significant” and I don’t see enough political will after the election either way. Check that- the only way is if Rauner and GOP gets crushed. that said, I don’t think that will happen.

Comment by fed up Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 4:47 pm
It depends on what the outcome of the election is. If the Democrats win a couple more seats in the House and Senate, they could pass veto-proof legislation and effectively govern the state in spite of Rauner.

Comment by DuPage Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 5:00 pm
===Democrats win a couple more seats in the House and Senate, they could pass veto-proof legislation and effectively govern the state in spite of Rauner.===

Nope. “Why?”

Revenue will need to be raised. Democrats raise revenue, no GOP votes, Rauner vetoes, Democrats override.

Rauner immediately begins, on the day of the override, a 9 month state tour and a $5-10 million media buy about “Democrats raising your taxes”

Nope. Not going to happen without 1) Rauner signing and 2) GOP votes… Nothing… Nothing is happening without both those things happening.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 5:05 pm
Last time I checked, there were only 16 GOP votes in the Illinois House for the Rauner Tax.

The November election is not going to change that.

Rauner has said that he doesn’t think that the outcome of this election matters any more than the outcome of the primary. In other words, even if Democrats pick up seats, he is not softening his demands.

And if Madigan loses members, it will have been lawmakers most likely to support the Rauner agenda.

Finally, Cullerton had now signaled he thinks that the plan should include a progressive income tax component.

Maybe by January there will be forward movement, but the human service providers don’t seem terribly well organized or financed. Until they are realize they are in a fight for their very existence, they are likely to keep starving to death little by little.

Welcome to Easter Island.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 5:11 pm
Willy - “Nope. Not going to happen without 1) Rauner signing and 2) GOP votes… Nothing… Nothing is happening without both those things happening.”

Exactly right !!!!

Comment by illini Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 5:12 pm
Is AFCSME still on strike? Why isn’t the media coverin’ it. I was surprised Rauner didn’t mention it on his facebook account.

Nothin’ will get done with the constant campaignin’ from the Gov. He doesn’t care about governin’. Progress would require a budget with no tricks -wasn’t that a Rauner promise - no business as usual?

I tell my union neighbors - save money - you’ll need it. Get house repairs done and ready to sell. He won’t rest until you’re gone.

Couple this with a Trumussolini victory and….oh God this is depressin’

Comment by Dr X Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 5:23 pm
Voted No. Since MJM knows Rauner is not well liked with more than just labor he will continue to press on. No matter what happens in the elections if the term Turnaround Agenda rears its head, there will definitely be no progress. No matter what Rauner and his buddies say there are no Democrats and plenty of Republicans that are going to vote against Labor, Social services, education etc. If he wants compromise he will have to put something of substance on the table.

Comment by Augie Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 5:24 pm
And this is the way it should and has to be.

Come on ILGOP, I know you are bought and paid for by BVR, but do what is right for our State. We can not continue as we have been going.

Comment by illini Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 5:27 pm
==And if Madigan loses members, it will have been lawmakers most likely to support the Rauner agenda.==
YDD, Share whatever you are on.
Like who? Skoog? Kifowit? Certainly not Smiddy? Bradley is going to see the light and back Rauner all of the sudden? Cloonen going to get hit on the head with her gaming device and gain full enlightenment? Please. None of the Dem targets would ever vote with Rauner to the same degree that Kay, Winger or Jesiel would ever vote with the Speaker.

Comment by Big Muddy Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 6:43 pm
Voted no, unlikely. Two houses of Democrats would have to agree to some watered-down rau-forms that might not be enough for the Governor, the Governor would have to agree to put R votes on a tax increase that won’t be much more than a stopgap. The situation with AFSCME employees’ future is fluid today but may be more clear by the time of the lame duck session. That situation could make an already difficult deal even more difficult.

Comment by James Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 7:01 pm
Nothing will be accomplished until trust is restored between the executive and the legislature. That won’t happen until rauner is gone, and madigan steps down as speaker.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 7:26 pm
Voted no. Nothing changes after November that makes the Governor’s “legislatin’ by other means” strategy using the budget more successful. The 60-30 requirements remain. More bad stuff followed by stop-gap budget fixes.

But the environment is slowly different after November elections. Opponents will start to become visible for the 2018 governors race - they will be critics of Rauner (who are not MJM). National GOP may also be having a tough internal debate post-Trump. Rauner’s money is less of an election threat to ILGOP after November also - could be a caucus split before Nov 2018 if the Governor’s numbers keep declining.

Comment by peon Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 7:39 pm
== could be a caucus split before Nov 2018 if the Governor’s numbers keep declining. ==

It will happen ONLY if the voters become so vocal the GOP Representatives and Senators have no other path to appease their constituents … OR if there is a disaster of such magnitude it causes an extensive loss of life that can be laid at Rauner’s doorstep.

Those are the only two scenarios I see that could start the State moving forward again.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Sep 21, 16 @ 11:27 pm
Yes there is a chance,depends on dunkin’s transition if you can trust the govenor,or your a tool

Comment by Rabid Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:02 am