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* More in the morning, but this is a robopoll with no mobile phone respondents, which makes it suspect…
ILLINOIS Senate@TammyforIL 41%@MarkKirk 39%
Someone Else 11%
Unsure 9%
Full results in the AM— ECPS (@EmersonPolling) September 22, 2016
0pm · 23 Sep 2016
ILLINOIS Topline@HillaryClinton 45%@realDonaldTrump 39%@GovGaryJohnson 6%
Unsure 7%@DrJillStein 3%
Full results in AM— ECPS (@EmersonPolling) September 22, 2016
* More on its methodology…
Our first step in weighting is to survey more than enough people. This allows us to then be able to systematically reject individual surveys from demographics that are over represented. Next, survey data is weighted with a 3 point decrease in Conservative opinion and a 3 point increase in Liberal opinion to offset the bias in land line only telephone polls.
Um, that’s not a good way to do things.
*** UPDATE *** The press release and more details are here.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 12:01 am
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In the case of Hillary, the poll speaks to what cynicism and a year’s worth of negative narrative based “reporting” by the 4th estate can do. There is no liberal media.. there is only a corporate one.
Comment by LakeCountyOG Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 12:23 am
–New robopoll has Duckworth up by just 2, Clinton up by only 6–
Go down to the bars behind the Board of Trade tomorrow, give the points, and go large, on that action.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 12:47 am
Apparently they’ve never been involved in polling before.
Comment by Michael Westen Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 1:22 am
When Clinton loses the DNC will only have itself to blame.
Comment by Longsummer Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 7:03 am
“Weighting” is almost always a concern in published polls. That is because weighting relies to a large extent both on intangibles and frankly, guesses (by even the most competent, independent pollsters) as to possible over/under representation that may have occurred for various reasons that they believe needs to be factored in. If their guesses are wrong the poll is off and pretty meaningless. Also many pollsters are not competent OR independent these days.
I am very cynical about individual polls and urge others to be as well– regardless of whether they support or refute one’s own hopes or current worldview.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 7:06 am
===…survey data is weighted with a 3 point decrease in Conservative opinion and a 3 point increase in Liberal opinion to offset the bias in land line only telephone polls.===
Why not… 4? Four is a pretty number, lots of angles. Or 5? Five has angles and a half circle too…
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 7:23 am
No mobile makes it worthless
Comment by illinois manufacturer Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 7:36 am
Completely junk.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 8:10 am
If there are no mobile numbers and gary johnson has 6%, what would he have with mobile numbers!?
/snark (kinda)
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 8:22 am
If Trump has a good debate Monday night, HRC is in BIG trouble.
Comment by Piece of Work Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 8:32 am
Kirk is a weak and flawed incumbent candidate, but Duckworth is not especially well liked. Meh.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 8:40 am
GIGO.
Comment by Northsider Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 8:41 am
Landline polls should be much, much better for Hillary than these show. The DNC should be very concerned.
Comment by CharlieKratos Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 8:45 am
At least we know how the above 50 demographic feels. Seems pretty accurate in that respect. But in all practicality, why would anyone waste the money to do a poll that everyone knows is inaccurate???
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 8:50 am
Frankly I’m surprised anyone listens to robopoll/call long enough to respond.
Comment by fed up Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 8:56 am
@OW: Excellent points! Your logic is worthy of a pollster!
Comment by morningstar Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:03 am
That’s statistical nonsense!
Comment by In the Middle... Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:06 am
- morningstar -
“I tried to capture the spirit of the thing.”
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:06 am
Using weighted theory at the end of the poll is just lazy. Why not just do the real poll with 30-40% cell phones?
Comment by DuPage Bard Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:24 am
**Why not just do the real poll with 30-40% cell phones?**
Because it costs a LOT more money.
Comment by JoeMaddon Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:33 am
= **Why not just do the real poll with 30-40% cell phones?**
Because it costs a LOT more money. =
But doing a wildly inaccurate poll is a waste of money. Whoever commissioned the poll should be willing to pay for a realistic response.
Comment by cover Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:43 am
FiveThirtyEight gives Emerson a B for polling methodology and reliability, need to keep that in mind when considering this current poll. I tend to agree with In the Middle — the Emerson method doesn’t make a lot of statistical sense.
Comment by Just Chilling Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:46 am
“Why not… 4? Four is a pretty number, lots of angles. Or 5? Five has angles and a half circle too…”
OW, it is written:
“Then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out.”
Comment by Northsider Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:48 am
The Electoral College favors HRC. That will be tough to beat. If we resurrected Reagan at his most favorable it would be tough for him to win today.
Chance for Trump if he wins big in the debates. That will be tough given the moderators and no matter what is said by either HRC or Trump their media allies will try to discredit the other side. And that again favors HRC as most of the MSM backs her and the Democratic Party.
Comment by Federalist Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:50 am
- Northsider -
Crusades are hard. Polling is… difficult?
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:52 am
Hahaha they’re fudging their own numbers?? Geesh, so much for random sampling!
Comment by The Muse Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 9:58 am
OW,
Indeed, but see a doctor if your polling lasts for more than four hours.
Comment by Northsider Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 10:34 am
==Hahaha they’re fudging their own numbers?? Geesh, so much for random sampling! ==
They fudged with a random number, so it’s still random!
Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 11:10 am
Questionable poll but it’s likely you could rate the popular vote as a horse race; the Electoral College gives Hillary an end.
But it’s going to come down to the debates. Whoever has a meltdown will lose. HRC is supposedly going to try to provoke Trump; if he stays calm, he wins. We know Trump will go after Hillary; if she has a “senior moment” or meltdown, she loses. Yes, things as trivial as that will decide it for Joe Citizen that will just be funding in to the election.
Comment by RNUG Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 11:22 am
It appears the Trump/Kirk base is established, but Kirk vs Duckworth has a lot more remaining undecideds, than Clinton vs Trump.
There are no third party candidates to siphon off some of the potential US Senate voters.
Even if the numbers are slightly off, that sounds reasonable right now. Clinton has Illinois in the bag; Duckworth is still up in the air.
Comment by walker Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 11:24 am
Walk, I completely agree with that analysis, but the bag HRC has it in might not be enough. I just don’t see coattails (or pantsuittails) here.
Comment by A guy Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 11:42 am
Northsider,
Thank you for adding some humor to my day. Holy Hand Grenade batman!
Comment by Steve Polite Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 12:38 pm
Walker: there are both Green and Libertarian candidates in the IL US Senate race.
Comment by Moe Berg Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 12:50 pm
Moe: Good point that there are third-party Senate candidates too, but who even knows their names? Just don’t see much siphoning there.
Comment by walker Thursday, Sep 22, 16 @ 2:07 pm