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Duckworth poll has her ahead of Kirk 46-37

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Polls

The following is a summary of findings from a live interview telephone survey conducted among 600 likely voters in Illinois. Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones. Interviews were conducted September 27-29, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is ±4%.

• Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth has weathered nearly a million dollars of false attacks on TV during the month of September alone and has expanded her lead over Senator Mark Kirk to 46% to 37%.

• These improvements for Duckworth took place without any commensurate advantage in the presidential race. The presidential race remains steady in Illinois.

The current poll shows Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump 52%-35%. Our August 1-4 poll showed Clinton leading Trump 51%-32%.

Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth continues to expand her lead over incumbent Senator Mark Kirk, 46%-37%. As the chart below indicates, this nine-point lead is an increase from the August 1-4 poll that showed Duckworth besting Kirk 44%-37%, a seven-point lead. Duckworth remains ahead among constituencies critical to Kirk’s success in November, including Independents (45%-30%) and among Veteran households (44%-40%). Moreover, she maintains strong leads among core Democratic constituencies of African American (70%-8%), Hispanic (62%-26%), and women (46%-36%) voters.

In September, Kirk and Republican special interest groups spent nearly one million dollars attacking Duckworth both Downstate in the Chicago media market with false ads about her record on Veterans and commitment to fighting terrorism. Despite these attacks, Duckworth maintains a 29-point margin over Kirk for which candidate is dedicated to helping Veterans (44%-15%) and an 8-point lead on Is someone we can count on to keep America safe (30%-22%).

Not only is Duckworth pulling farther ahead but voters have increasing negative impressions of Kirk. As the chart above shows, his favorable rating has steadily eroded since the summer and he is now five points underwater.

Click here for the original document.

* Related…

* Duckworth goes on offensive against low-key Kirk at first Senate race forum

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 2:55 pm

Comments

Both races will tighten but Clinton still wins big and Duckworth will win by more than enough.

This is a very Blue state. It is not an Ohio.

Comment by Federalist Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:04 pm
Kirk is chasing, there’s no doubt, but Duckworth is trailing Clinton (in this poll, and using this poll only) so I’m thinking if Kirk can make some noise, get some traction now that more people are paying attention, it could get at least “tighter”, even though close doesn’t work in actual ballot counting.

Uphill for Kirk, no doubt.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:14 pm
No way HRC wins by that margin.

Comment by Piece of Work Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:18 pm
Trump will easily sink Kirk in Illinois. Clinton will win the state by about 15% and bring duckworth along for the win.

Comment by Ron Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:23 pm
If there are Hillary coattails, where would Duckworth be without them? Yikes.

This polls seems to mesh with other senate polls nationwide, in that people are willing to split their votes on Prez and Senate.

Comment by chi Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:24 pm
===No way HRC wins by that margin===

Obama won it 4 years ago by a similar margin.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:31 pm
Has Kirk been above 40 in any poll so far? The polls listed in the RCP and HuffPo polling averages are few but neither has a poll of Kirk above 40. Maybe one of Kirk’s own polls that they released had him above 40, I don’t recall. But still, if it’s supposed to be dangerous for an incumbent who is below 50 it must be that much more alarming for an incumbent who can’t get into the low 40’s.

Comment by The Captain Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:41 pm
My comments from downstate. And from a very Republican area. I understand that some internal polling is looking good for some down ballot candidates, primarily for the GA, but not necessarily that good for the three Democrat women at the top of our ballot.

Guessing we will see if there are coattails.

I have seen absolutely NO Kirk signs in my area and some Duckworth signs have been going up in the past week. And if signs are any indication - Trump or Johnson should win by wide margins in my area.

Comment by illini Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:45 pm
One thing that will hurt Kirk is that there is no real RNC “victory” push like there was in 2010 when we won five Congressional seats. Tonia Khouri is not a serious challenger to Bill Foster; Patrick Harlan is not a serious challenger to Cheri Bustos; and Pete DiCianni will not put up a serious fight against Raja K. Mike Bost and Rodney Davis are easily the prohibitive favorites. The only race the RNC has real “juice” in at the Congressional level is Dold-Schneider. So out of those six competitive districts only one has a real dogfight. That will hurt Kirk as he benefited greatly from the RNC’s efforts in 2010. If he manages to pull it out Kirk will win by less than 1%.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:14 pm
Clinton is not Obama. And if the people knew then what they know now about Obamacare and Benghazi, the margin would not have been nearly as large.

Comment by Piece of Work Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:16 pm
===And if the people knew then what they know now about Obamacare and Benghazi, the margin would not have been nearly as large===

Have u seen his job approval numbers in Illinois?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:19 pm
Piece - while I agree the spread will not be as high for HRC vs. Trump, Rich is correct and if President Obama were allowed to run for a third time he would clear 60% in Illinois on November 8th.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:22 pm
Does that say more about Obama or the people of Illinois? I know who I would pick.

I think folks will wake up one of these days and ask what the hell happened. It is very likely GDP will not reach 2% in the 3rd quarter. Combine that with nearly $20 trillion in debt, a job market that is still very so so, student debt that is off the charts and other factors, this is an economy built out of a house of cards.

Comment by PoW Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:31 pm
PoW, how is that Obama’s fault? The biggest failure of the administration is he couldn’t get the GOP-led Congress to do any. thing. at. all.

Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:34 pm
===Does that say more about Obama or the people of Illinois? I know who I would pick.===

I dunno if that’s an argument, but the cloud you were yelling at seems to have moved on…

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:35 pm
@Team Sleep - Don’t be so certain about Bost being a prohibitive favorite.

Comment by illini Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:40 pm
===I know who I would pick===

Sorry, but your opinion alone does not constitute a scientific poll. Heck, you’re not even an online poll.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:43 pm
When did appearances before newspaper editorial boards become accepted as “debates?”

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:46 pm
Cheryl, Barry had the House and the Senate for his first 2 years.

And the biggest failure in his administration is Obamacare followed by relations in the Middle East. Hey, don’t blame the GOP for racking up monster debt.

Comment by PoW Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:53 pm
But Rich, I could be an online poll, if I tried hard!!

Comment by PoW Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 5:05 pm
Informal impression from field: Unusually high name recognition for Duckworth, at least around these mostly Republican suburbs. That reduces one typical incumbent advantage.

Comment by walker Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 6:05 pm
Duckworth is ahead but not by the stated amount

Comment by cannon649 Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 8:00 pm
This poll is probably accurate–supposedly the DSCC is moving out, probably to PA, NV, and NH.

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 8:39 am
–And if the people knew then what they know now about Obamacare and Benghazi, the margin would not have been nearly as large.–

Right. Lot of remorse among Obama voters of “what they know now about Obamacare and Benghazi.”

Message from the Alternative Universe.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:07 am
When you combine the Trump factor in a heavily blue state with the fact that Kirk hasn’t been able to provide any kind of rationale for his reelection after two decades in Washington, of course he’s losing.

The only real suspense is what DC lobbying firm Kirk will join next January. I find it hard to believe that Kirk will ever leave our nation’s capitol. He’s been a creature of DC for almost all of his adult life.

Comment by slow down Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:14 am
yeah Word, that Obamacare gig is going great guns. But, I also realize this is Illinois, an extremely blue state where results, especially in Chicago, don’t matter as long as the person in charge has a Dafter their name.

Illinois appears headed for the Alternative Universe.

Comment by PoW Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:26 am
What’s a “Dafter?” I don’t speak Chronic Victimese.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:44 am